Does this administration continue to own the "success" of this market?

[maxwere 82]

50% re-tracement in under a week.  Right on the heels of the ridiculous "We did it" state of the union.  IMO a huge tactical error, that will insure a one in done scenario for the Trump admin. 

[AUDub 11,184]

Yeah I said this on another board yesterday. This should be an important lesson for Trump and his administration. If he had been smart, he'd have based his messaging around jobs and wage growth, as those are a lot less volatile and more likely to hold on to their gains.

[NolaAuTiger 3,295]

16 minutes ago, maxwere said:

50% re-tracement in under a week.  Right on the heels of the ridiculous "We did it" state of the union.  IMO a huge tactical error, that will insure a one in done scenario for the Trump admin. 

A combination of rising bond yields, increased natural gas production, and excess valuation leads to selling. It's all part of the process. The immediate bump and continuous rise after the election was a direct response to the election of Trump - which carried with it optimism and immediate deregulation. The current decline in no way is Trump's "fault" in the sense that he screwed up. When the market is over performing, people eventually have to get out - the average individual income seeking investors. Said investors will get back in and repatriation will also take effect as well. 

[NolaAuTiger 3,295]

5 minutes ago, AUDub said:

Yeah I said this on another board yesterday. This should be an important lesson for Trump and his administration. If he had been smart, he'd have based his messaging around jobs and wage growth, as those are a lot less volatile and more likely to hold on to their gains.

Premature to put blame on the Trump Admin. See my response above. Also, a lot depends on whether the tax cuts will be dispensed in inflation or boost the economy. The current drop could be a knee-jerk reaction to tighter credit - and if that is the case - the bull market will resume presuming the economy and corporate profits remain strong. 

I think you and I both know all of this is more complicated than what's on the bare surface average minds tend to absorb. 

[AU64 10,122]

3 minutes ago, NolaAuTiger said:

Premature to put blame on the Trump Admin. See my response above. Also, a lot depends on whether the tax cuts will be dispensed in inflation or boost the economy. The current drop could be a knee-jerk reaction to tighter credit - and if that is the case - the bull market will resume presuming the economy and corporate profits remain strong. 

I think you and I both know all of this is more complicated than what's on the bare surface average minds tend to absorb. 

True...but it provided a nice opportunity for the anti-DT crowd to poke him in the eye.   Dub had it right .....but when speaking to the American public you have to keep the message simple and not burden their thinking with details.    Back in the day, daily newspapers used write for about the 8th grade level....and I expect that's still a good target.

Meanwhile the market is down 500...no wait....it started going up and is now over 250.......oops, dropped 100 points in about a minute......can't figure out who to blame or credit for those changes... 

 

[NolaAuTiger 3,295]

3 minutes ago, AU64 said:

True...but it provided a nice opportunity for the anti-DT crowd to poke him in the eye.   Dub had it right .....but when speaking to the American public you have to keep the message simple and not burden their thinking with details.    Back in the day, daily newspapers used write for about the 8th grade level....and I expect that's still a good target.

But what does that have to do with higher bond yields and concern over the Federal Reserve to raise rates?

[Brad_ATX 13,654]

14 minutes ago, NolaAuTiger said:

Premature to put blame on the Trump Admin. See my response above. Also, a lot depends on whether the tax cuts will be dispensed in inflation or boost the economy. The current drop could be a knee-jerk reaction to tighter credit - and if that is the case - the bull market will resume presuming the economy and corporate profits remain strong. 

I think you and I both know all of this is more complicated than what's on the bare surface average minds tend to absorb. 

Logically, you are likely correct that the bull market will continue.  However, Trump will get blame from some and it's deserved to a degree as he tried to take credit for the run.  Ben is right when he said it was dumb of Trump to trumpet the market, which is notoriously fickle and something that only about half of Americans are affected by (other half doesn't own stocks at all).

[NolaAuTiger 3,295]

Just now, Brad_ATX said:

Logically, you are likely correct that the bull market will continue.  However, Trump will get blame from some and it's deserved to a degree as he tried to take credit for the run.  Ben is right when he said it was dumb of Trump to trumpet the market, which is notoriously fickle and something that only about half of Americans are affected by (other half doesn't own stocks at all).

Oh I'm sure he will get blame, irrespective of whether such blame is factual. Perhaps I misread what BB was saying. I simply meant that to blame Trump is entirely premature.

I don't see monetary policy mistake or a negative perception of sovereign credit risk as the culprit of the sudden decline. I certainly don't know what will happen, but it's not reasonable to blame a political party at this point. 

[AU64 10,122]

5 minutes ago, NolaAuTiger said:

But what does that have to do with higher bond yields and concern over the Federal Reserve to raise rates?

Nothing too much but I'm of the view that stuff like that is " after the fact" explanation for the unexplainable.  If the cause were that simple,  the recognition of it would have not happened over night....and the market would have gradually adjusted, and people would not have taken immediate losses when they did not have to.  Likely as someone noted above, computers kicked with stop-loss programs and the like and it went wild, 

[NolaAuTiger 3,295]

1 minute ago, AU64 said:

Nothing too much but I'm of the view that stuff like that is " after the fact" explanation for the unexplainable.  If the cause were that simple,  the recognition of it would have not happened over night....and the market would have gradually adjusted, and people would not have taken immediate losses when they did not have to.  Likely as someone noted above, computers kicked with stop-loss programs and the like and it went wild, 

Per my understanding, plenty of people predicted the decline, inherent to an over performing market. But what do I know? But to blame this person or that person would be premature IMO.

[AU64 10,122]

8 minutes ago, Brad_ATX said:

Logically, you are likely correct that the bull market will continue.  However, Trump will get blame from some and it's deserved to a degree as he tried to take credit for the run.  Ben is right when he said it was dumb of Trump to trumpet the market, which is notoriously fickle and something that only about half of Americans are affected by (other half doesn't own stocks at all).

So those who don't want to give him credit for the run-up are perfectly willing to give him credit for drop....at least he had implemented policies and laws that created a growth economy.....did not notice any exec decisions or law over the weekend that caused the panic drop yesterday however.   

[AU64 10,122]

2 minutes ago, NolaAuTiger said:

Per my understanding, plenty of people predicted the decline, inherent to an over performing market. But what do I know? But to blame this person or that person would be premature IMO.

True....but I've been listening to people calling for a decline for a year....and predicting a bear market and I've wondered what their clients think if they followed that advice, stayed in bonds and watched the market rise constantly.  

Lots of people (including me) took profits along the way and went heavy in cash....but I danged sure was not going to then sell everything I still owned at a loss (even just a paper loss)  because someone thinks the Fed might or might not change interest rate policies.   Maybe the market is always irrational but the last couple days have been Exhibit A for maximum irrational behavior. JMO

[TexasTiger 13,029]

7 minutes ago, AU64 said:

So those who don't want to give him credit for the run-up are perfectly willing to give him credit for drop....at least he had implemented policies and laws that created a growth economy.....did not notice any exec decisions or law over the weekend that caused the panic drop yesterday however.   

He took TOTAL credit for a stock market on an 8 year run. He created any backlash.

[Brad_ATX 13,654]

8 minutes ago, AU64 said:

So those who don't want to give him credit for the run-up are perfectly willing to give him credit for drop....at least he had implemented policies and laws that created a growth economy.....did not notice any exec decisions or law over the weekend that caused the panic drop yesterday however.   

Not what I said at all.  I said Trump himself tried to take credit for the run-up, touting gains on many occasions in speeches and through twitter.  He opened himself to taking blame for the drop.  If he had stuck to rising wage growth and job creation, this wouldn't be a conversation.

Also, we've had a growth economy for nearly a decade now.  It's not all Trump's policies creating a growth economy as you put it.

[AUDub 11,184]

2 minutes ago, Brad_ATX said:

Not what I said at all.  I said Trump himself tried to take credit for the run-up, touting gains on many occasions in speeches and through twitter.  He opened himself to taking blame for the drop.  If he had stuck to rising wage growth and job creation, this wouldn't be a conversation.

Also, we've had a growth economy for nearly a decade now.  It's not all Trump's policies creating a growth economy as you put it.

This.

Lot of folks ITT reading things that aren't there. 

[homersapien 11,453]

1 hour ago, AUDub said:

Yeah I said this on another board yesterday. This should be an important lesson for Trump and his administration. If he had been smart, he'd have based his messaging around jobs and wage growth, as those are a lot less volatile and more likely to hold on to their gains.

Taking responsibility for the stock market was the tactic of a total amateur.  Trump is too intoxicated with himself to think.

 

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/02/05/trump-stock-market-down-324880

‘The president clearly set himself up’: Trump’s stock market miscalculation

After cheering the market’s relentless rise, Trump is forced to face the reality of Monday's swift and historic fall.

.......On top of concerns about rising inflation, the tax cuts are already increasing the federal government’s need to borrow and accelerating the date by which Congress must raise the federal debt limit. And as of Monday, there was still no plan in Washington to raise the limit and avoid a catastrophic default.

The result is that a president who tossed aside traditional presidential caution in cheerleading the stock market now stands poised to take the blame for any correction.....

[homersapien 11,453]

1 hour ago, NolaAuTiger said:

A combination of rising bond yields, increased natural gas production, and excess valuation leads to selling. It's all part of the process. The immediate bump and continuous rise after the election was a direct response to the election of Trump - which carried with it optimism and immediate deregulation. The current decline in no way is Trump's "fault" in the sense that he screwed up. When the market is over performing, people eventually have to get out - the average individual income seeking investors. Said investors will get back in and repatriation will also take effect as well. 

I think you are totally missing the actual point.

[homersapien 11,453]

1 hour ago, AU64 said:

True...but it provided a nice opportunity for the anti-DT crowd to poke him in the eye.   Dub had it right .....but when speaking to the American public you have to keep the message simple and not burden their thinking with details.    Back in the day, daily newspapers used write for about the 8th grade level....and I expect that's still a good target.

Meanwhile the market is down 500...no wait....it started going up and is now over 250.......oops, dropped 100 points in about a minute......can't figure out who to blame or credit for those changes... 

 

We can only wish that Trump spoke on an 8th grade level.

TRUMP SPEAKS AT FOURTH-GRADE LEVEL, LOWEST OF LAST 15 U.S. PRESIDENTS, NEW ANALYSIS FINDS

http://www.newsweek.com/trump-fire-and-fury-smart-genius-obama-774169

[homersapien 11,453]

1 hour ago, AU64 said:

So those who don't want to give him credit for the run-up are perfectly willing to give him credit for drop....at least he had implemented policies and laws that created a growth economy.....did not notice any exec decisions or law over the weekend that caused the panic drop yesterday however.   

You missed the point also.

[homersapien 11,453]

1 hour ago, Brad_ATX said:

Not what I said at all.  I said Trump himself tried to take credit for the run-up, touting gains on many occasions in speeches and through twitter.  He opened himself to taking blame for the drop.  If he had stuck to rising wage growth and job creation, this wouldn't be a conversation.

Also, we've had a growth economy for nearly a decade now.  It's not all Trump's policies creating a growth economy as you put it.

It's amazing how some people are so willing to throw out blatant misrepresentations of what other's actually posted.  It's as if they can't read for meaning.  

[NolaAuTiger 3,295]

34 minutes ago, homersapien said:

I think you are totally missing the actual point.

You, out of all people, really have no room to talk. For the entire bull market under Trump, you refused to grant him any credit. We debated this numerous times. Please do not now try to jump on the “blame Trump” bus.

[homersapien 11,453]

3 minutes ago, NolaAuTiger said:

You, out of all people, really have no room to talk. For the entire bull market under Trump, you refused to grant him any credit. We debated this numerous times. Please do not now try to jump on the “blame Trump” bus.

Still don't get it.   

This discussion is not about blaming Trump.  It's about the flip side of Trump's strategy of taking credit for the stock market.

Two. Completely. Different. Things.

[NolaAuTiger 3,295]

 

1 hour ago, Brad_ATX said:

Not what I said at all.  I said Trump himself tried to take credit for the run-up, touting gains on many occasions in speeches and through twitter.  He opened himself to taking blame for the drop.  If he had stuck to rising wage growth and job creation, this wouldn't be a conversation.

Also, we've had a growth economy for nearly a decade now.  It's not all Trump's policies creating a growth economy as you put it.

Totally understandable. Though, given the immediate bump after the election, a claim that the market responded to the Trump election wouldn’t lack viability - and even thereafter considering deregulation. 

IMO, If people understood how the market works, this wouldn’t be a conversation. They act as if Trump’s monetary policy is behind the drop. And even if such a belief stems from his taking credit of the bull market, it still reflects a misunderstanding of the stock market. In many ways, the sudden drop could be viewed in a very rational, optimistic light. 

 

 

[NolaAuTiger 3,295]

1 minute ago, homersapien said:

Still don't get it.   

Still don’t get what? Have you even read the entire thread?? You’re just nipping at the heels of civil discussion, trying to stir the gravy.

[NolaAuTiger 3,295]

36 minutes ago, homersapien said:

We can only wish that Trump spoke on an 8th grade level.

TRUMP SPEAKS AT FOURTH-GRADE LEVEL, LOWEST OF LAST 15 U.S. PRESIDENTS, NEW ANALYSIS FINDS

http://www.newsweek.com/trump-fire-and-fury-smart-genius-obama-774169

Okay? Jimmy Carter spoke at an 11th grade level according to that very report. Sure did translate didn’t it?