Do we have a 5* Curse?

[WFE12 9,191]

Yeah I think it's just an auburn thing for these last couple years. Anything that can go wrong will go wrong. Too good to be true..However you want to describe it...I'm just hoping against hope that Owen and Bo change the narrative..I don't feel too positive about it though given our history.

[Sani-Freeze 552]

2 hours ago, Auburn2Eugene said:

I agree in part. However star rankings are absolutely important. When you go back and look at the last 10 or so NFL drafts, a very large portion of highly ranked high 4 and 5 star guys are being drafted. When you consider that probably around 75 to 80% of each class is 3* or less, the sheer number of high 4 and 5* players being drafted speaks for itself. When you have say 50% of the top 3 rounds being high 4 and 5* players drafted, even though the high 4s and 5*s make up probably less than 10% of each class, the importance of "stars" becomes even more significant.

Had Dyer kept his head on straight, he most likely graduates leaves holding every single rushing record belonging to Auburn. He did in 2 years what not even Bo Jackson accomplished. Saying he didn't make a significant contribution makes me shake my head. Yes he could of done SO much more. But in those 2 seasons, he did some things the great BO couldn't even do. He made a very significant contribution. We likely don't make the 2010 BCS game against Oregon without Dyer... Much less win that game.

I was referring to most of the longer previous list of 5 star signees who never made a significant contribution. Dyer was one of the exceptions who gave us two good years.

[keesler 5,924]

1 hour ago, TigerOne said:

updyke.com weighing in on the negativity

https://www.al.com/sports/2019/02/alcom-all-access-is-calvin-ashley-transfer-part-of-a-negative-trend-for-auburn.html

the mandatory praise uat segment

"That’s a pretty uneven track record, especially when you compare it to the fact that nearly every 5-star recruit that Alabama signs becomes an All-SEC-type player for the Crimson Tide and goes on to play in the NFL. (Linebacker Ben Davis might be a notable exception, though he still has two years to up his game)."

That is a scathing piece, I wish the whole thing was nothing but lies, fabrications, and pure garbage............but it's not.  (everyone compares AU to uat - we do it on this very board)

An uneven track record, inconsistency, troubling trend when 5*'s make little to no impact on the team, troubled offensive line, inconsistent offensive production, players not being developed up to their potential, staff can't find a role on the team for 5* talent.....then warnings to fans with the odds of  Nix/Pappoe not living up to their hype/potential. 😒

[meh130 1,043]

I think what people miss is exceptional players in high school is often based on exceptional talent, not exceptional player development.

For example, with Byron Cowart, he was a world-beater on defense, big, lean, strong, and fast. So his HS coach puts him out as a weakside defensive end in a "Wide-9", standing edge rusher, and tells him to just rush the QB. And he was stellar at that.

The recruiting services saw him and said, with his height, strength, and side, he projects as a strongside defensive end, not weakside DE or an edge rusher. 4-3 base defensive teams recruit Cowart as an SDE, and 3-4 base defensive teams like Bama recruit Cowart to be a 3-4 DE, not a Jack/Buck edge rusher OLB.

We don't know what Muschamp was promising Cowart at either Florida or Auburn. He may have been promising Cowart would be a pass-rushing Buck. But Cowart was listed at 277 lbs as a freshman on the 2015 roster. By the end of his career Maryland listed him at 293 lbs.

Cowart gets to Auburn and is put in the SDE role, and has to learn to actively engage blockers, not avoid them or discard them. He just wants to fight off the blocker and get the QB. Which may be fine for the Buck, but is how you get burned on a draw or a screen as an interior lineman.

Cowart benefits from an SEC strength and conditioning program. He spends more time being coached by a hard-ass Rodney Garner, who wants a particular behavior out of each and every position on the DL. It is no longer high school, where it was about Cowart's exceptional physical skills overwhelming opponents. Eventually we move Cowart over to 3-Tech DT, as we have more SDEs who are simply performing better for the role. Garner figures Cowart would be a good passing down 3-Tech, playing to his physical attributes as well as his natural ability to rush the QB.

Cowart quits AU, and eventually lands at Maryland, who puts him at 4-3 SDE, where Cowart wins the starting role and performs well.

But it was the years spent at AU that developed Cowart into a successful interior defensive lineman. Maybe, by being the most talented and most coached up SDE on the roster allowed Cowart to finally be confident in his role. Maybe he finally realized he was never meant to be a dedicated edge rushing Buck, but was destined to be a 4-3 SDE, or a 4-3 3-Tech DT, or a 3-4 DE. That acceptance and confidence is why he declared for the draft. He is going to project as a 4-3 or 3-4 DE. He is not a "tweener" 4-3 DE or an "edge" player who might play a 4-3 hybrid DE or a 3-4 OLB. I think Cowart's comfort and confidence in his role finally caught up to what the coaches saw in him years before.

There are a lot of high school athletes who are the biggest and baddest bullfrog in their small pond. Then they get to the big lake called Division 1 and their egos get checked. But that happens to many of us in some form or fashion. It is called life.

[McLoofus 35,182]

34 minutes ago, meh130 said:

There are a lot of high school athletes who are the biggest and baddest bullfrog in their small pond. Then they get to the big lake called Division 1 and their egos get checked. But that happens to many of us in some form or fashion. It is called life.

With all respect, everybody knows all that. Well, maybe not the intricacies of Byron Cowart's position(s) and various defensive sets- good stuff and thank you- but we all know the rest. 

Thing is, all the rest applies to every school. So the question is, do more elite recruits flame out at Auburn than at other power programs? While nobody has provided hard numbers proving it true or false, it seems like Auburn has a lot more Cowart/Thomas/Craig-Meyers stories than the teams that have been busy winning championships the last 6 years. 

[keesler 5,924]

17 minutes ago, McLoofus said:

With all respect, everybody knows all that. Well, maybe not the intricacies of Byron Cowart's position(s) and various defensive sets- good stuff and thank you- but we all know the rest. 

Thing is, all the rest applies to every school. So the question is, do more elite recruits flame out at Auburn than at other power programs? While nobody has provided hard numbers proving it true or false, it seems like Auburn has a lot more Cowart/Thomas/Craig-Meyers stories than the teams that have been busy winning championships the last 6 years. 

Looking at recent history (the last decade?) it feels as if AU has had an excessive # of flame outs for a myriad of reasons.  It just feels excessive because my main focus is AU, and when I look at the rather mediocre results in the W/L column, the focus on those flame outs gets magnified exponentially and a HC with a hot rear gets even hotter.

[McLoofus 35,182]

5 minutes ago, keesler said:

Looking at recent history (the last decade?) it feels as if AU has had an excessive # of flame outs for a myriad of reasons.  It just feels excessive because my main focus is AU, and when I look at the rather mediocre results in the W/L column, the focus on those flame outs gets magnified exponentially and a HC with a hot rear gets even hotter.

It definitely feels worse due to the lack of success on the field, but it might actually also be worse. 

We can go player by player and make up excuses, but we've crossed the threshold of bad luck IMO. We're not doing good evaluations and/or we're not properly utilizing/developing them. 

(It does seem like we've more or less learned our lesson about guys with chemical imbalances, both on-board and ingested.)

[AUwent 3,748]

“But Gus is a good coach guyyyyyzzzzz!”—Certain members here

[toddc 13,194]

3 hours ago, McLoofus said:

It definitely feels worse due to the lack of success on the field, but it might actually also be worse. 

We can go player by player and make up excuses, but we've crossed the threshold of bad luck IMO. We're not doing good evaluations and/or we're not properly utilizing/developing them. 

(It does seem like we've more or less learned our lesson about guys with chemical imbalances, both on-board and ingested.)

If you want to say some offensive line or receiver guys aren’t getting coached-up, then y’all have a case maybe! I don’t think guys on dline, linebacker, or even dbs are lacking in the right coaching. Those not performing in these areas, it’s probably on them to a larger degree. JMHO

[AUght2win 6,836]

7 hours ago, McLoofus said:

Curse? No. But we have done a poor job of evaluating and developing them overall. We are below the national average for turning 5* recruits into NFL players. Which not only means that we are below average, but also means that we are well below the teams who are above average. Without looking, I have some guesses as to who some of those teams are, and I bet that at least a few of them have been on our schedule more than once these last 6 years. 

Our rate of 5 stars living up to hype is alarmingly low. Just looking back on the 2014 class again, some of the other 5 stars: Fournette, Myles Garrett, DaShawn Hand, Adoree Jackson, Joe Mixon, Sony Michel, Rashaan Evans, Deshaun Watson, Raekwon McMillan, Teez Tabor, Quenten Nelson. All big time NFL studs. The fact that we got two of the maybe 4-5 duds in that class is so insane. Follow that up with the #1 overall player in america the next class becoming a dud. 

[GwillMac6 20,671]

Do you think ANY NFL Head Coach would say this about Gus? Let alone THE GOAT? Gus probaly runs one of the most ill fitted systems and programs in general conducive to preparing players for the NFL. There is a laundry list of kids who were highly rated (not just 5 stars but highly rated 4 stars) who I have felt like made the wrong choice in coming here. I wince when offensive skill guys come here because I feel like they will not get the most out of their talent being coached by Gus and will we be wasted. It is a horrible feeling to have knowing your head coach squanders a lot of talent year in year out. Defensive Line is the one position that has consistently been developed properly and churned out NFL players in the Gus era. ALL the credit in the world goes to the OG Garner on this one. He has done that wherever he has been in his career. This was a problem under Chizik as well. Remember Jeffrey Whitaker? Almost a 5 star on every site and he was a massive colossal bust. Just 1 of many in the Gus and Chizik regimes.

 

[McLoofus 35,182]

57 minutes ago, toddc said:

If you want to say some offensive line or receiver guys aren’t getting coached-up, then y’all have a case maybe! I don’t think guys on dline, linebacker, or even dbs are lacking in the right coaching. Those not performing in these areas, it’s probably on them to a larger degree. JMHO

Might sometimes also have something to do with what the soccer world calls "man management". Some are quick to point out that a lot of these guys leave for non-football reasons. True, but one then must ask if we have more attrition of *that* type than our competition and, if yes, why?

[AUwent 3,748]

5 hours ago, GwillMac6 said:

Do you think ANY NFL Head Coach would say this about Gus? Let alone THE GOAT? Gus probaly runs one of the most ill fitted systems and programs in general conducive to preparing players for the NFL. There is a laundry list of kids who were highly rated (not just 5 stars but highly rated 4 stars) who I have felt like made the wrong choice in coming here. I wince when offensive skill guys come here because I feel like they will not get the most out of their talent being coached by Gus and will we be wasted. It is a horrible feeling to have knowing your head coach squanders a lot of talent year in year out. Defensive Line is the one position that has consistently been developed properly and churned out NFL players in the Gus era. ALL the credit in the world goes to the OG Garner on this one. He has done that wherever he has been in his career. This was a problem under Chizik as well. Remember Jeffrey Whitaker? Almost a 5 star on every site and he was a massive colossal bust. Just 1 of many in the Gus and Chizik regimes.

 

I agree with the vast majority of what you say, but Whitaker was a unanimous 4*.

Once again, I really do wonder if a good season this year would actually be detrimental to our program. I have never felt so Machiavellian about Auburn football in my life, the way I do right now.

[GwillMac6 20,671]

4 minutes ago, AUwent said:

I agree with the vast majority of what you say, but Whitaker was a unanimous 4*.

Once again, I really do wonder if a good season this year would actually be detrimental to our program. I have never felt so Machiavellian about Auburn football in my life, the way I do right now.

I meant ALMOST a 5 star on every site. Not that he WAS a 5 star on almost every site. I should of been more clear. My bad. My L. Here is my knee.

[GwillMac6 20,671]

9 minutes ago, AUwent said:

I agree with the vast majority of what you say, but Whitaker was a unanimous 4*.

Once again, I really do wonder if a good season this year would actually be detrimental to our program. I have never felt so Machiavellian about Auburn football in my life, the way I do right now.

Is Gus still the coach? Well there is your answer. I will go to my grave thinking Jimbo choked on purpose vs us in the 4th so Gus could keep his job. I know as ridiculous as that sounds I really do believe it. It seriously looked like he was trying to throw the game with his 4th quarter playcalling. The worst playcalling I have ever seen.

[McLoofus 35,182]

8 hours ago, GwillMac6 said:

I meant ALMOST a 5 star on every site. Not that he WAS a 5 star on almost every site. I should of been more clear. My bad. My L. Here is my knee.

Lol at folks quibbling over whether these guys were 5*s, consensus 5*s, partial 5*s, 4*s....

WE HAVE AN ELITE RECRUIT PROBLEM, PEOPLE

[bigbird 60,522]

8 hours ago, GwillMac6 said:

The worst playcalling I have ever seen.

Hold my beer

-Gus

[KolchakAU85 430]

We have excellent assistant coaches.

If Calvin Ashley couldn't make an impact on our sorry offensive line last year, what does that say about his 5* rating?  Probably that it was wrong, and that he should've been a 3*.

Roc Thomas?  He was given plenty of opportunity at Auburn, but was outplayed by other backs.

Byron Cowart a 5*?  Only by flawed analysts who completely missed the boat on him.  He was given plenty of chances at Auburn as well, but couldn't cut it.  Maryland was more his speed.

These stupid "star" ratings do not take into account the heart these prima donna players have as babied high schoolers, where they consistently overmatched their competition in both practice and games.  Then all the sudden, they enter a college fall camp and discover they are no longer "special".  Rather, they now must prove themselves against players who can hit just as hard as they can, run as fast as they can, etc.  And under coaches who are less impressed with their "star rating" than how they compete and improve in the most harsh conditions they've ever faced.  That must be an eye-opener for many of them, and some of them don't handle it well.

Can you imagine being 5* Byron Cowart in his first fall camp with Auburn?  He was dominated by the 3* linemen to the extent they openly questioned his 5* rating to the coaches.  Either he was grossly overrated, or his heart didn't match his rating.  That wasn't on the AU coaches.

I have 2 simple words for these 5* pansies who don't get their way in college they way they did in high school: DeSean Davis.  His heart made him great, even after he was told by Will Muschamp that he would never play for him.

[keesler 5,924]

27 minutes ago, KolchakAU85 said:

We have excellent assistant coaches.

If Calvin Ashley couldn't make an impact on our sorry offensive line last year, what does that say about his 5* rating?  Probably that it was wrong, and that he should've been a 3*.

Roc Thomas?  He was given plenty of opportunity at Auburn, but was outplayed by other backs.

Byron Cowart a 5*?  Only by flawed analysts who completely missed the boat on him.  He was given plenty of chances at Auburn as well, but couldn't cut it.  Maryland was more his speed.

These stupid "star" ratings do not take into account the heart these prima donna players have as babied high schoolers, where they consistently overmatched their competition in both practice and games.  Then all the sudden, they enter a college fall camp and discover they are no longer "special".  Rather, they now must prove themselves against players who can hit just as hard as they can, run as fast as they can, etc.  And under coaches who are less impressed with their "star rating" than how they compete and improve in the most harsh conditions they've ever faced.  That must be an eye-opener for many of them, and some of them don't handle it well.

Can you imagine being 5* Byron Cowart in his first fall camp with Auburn?  He was dominated by the 3* linemen to the extent they openly questioned his 5* rating to the coaches.  Either he was grossly overrated, or his heart didn't match his rating.  That wasn't on the AU coaches.

I have 2 simple words for these 5* pansies who don't get their way in college they way they did in high school: DeSean Davis.  His heart made him great, even after he was told by Will Muschamp that he would never play for him.

What's your analysis on why Auburn hasn't put an offensive skill player in the 1st round of the draft in damn near a decade? 

I understand that many guys have to be "de-recruited" once they hit campus.  But prima donna's can't be what's preventing Auburn from pumping skill players to the pro's when they've had excellent assistant coaches.

[meh130 1,043]

Here is a list of Auburn's 5-Star recruits from 247 based on their composite ranking. I have ordered it by year. I list any player who transferred as a "Bust" if they never played significantly at Auburn. There are 5 of 12 "Busts" in the Chizik/Malzahn era (41.6%). In the Tubberville era, we had 2 of 5 "Busts" (40%).

Owen Pappoe, 2019 - TBD
Bo Nix, 2019 - TBD
Calvin Ashley, 2017 - Bust
Derrick Brown, 2016
Byron Cowart, 2015 - Bust, Invited to 2019 NFL Combine
Roc Thomas, 2014 - Bust, Currently in the NFL
Tre' Williams, 2014
Montravius Adams, 2013
Carl Lawson, 2013
Christian Westerman, 2011 - Bust, Currently in the NFL
Michael Dyer, 2010 - Bust, Not Currently Active
Trovon Reed, 2010
Tray Blackmon, 2005 - Bust, One Season in CFL
Ben Obomanu, 2002
Carnell Williams, 2001
Lemarcus Rowell, 2001 - Bust, Two Seasons in CFL
Jason Campbell, 2000

Ashley and Cowart supposedly had work ethic issues. Dyer, Blackmon, and Rowell had discipline issues. Playing time issues were factors with Thomas and Westerman.

The majority of these "Busts" appear to be behavioral. Good sports psychology in the recruiting process could probably identify potential behavioral risks and how to manage them. Saban is a big believer is sports psychology. Also, Saban instructs his recruiters to not look at film until they have talked to the prospect's coach. What do they talk about with the coach? Probably not how fast the kid is, or how hard he hits. That's on the film. More likely they talk about work ethic and behavior.

[McLoofus 35,182]

2 minutes ago, meh130 said:

Here is a list of Auburn's 5-Star recruits from 247 based on their composite ranking. I have ordered it by year. I list any player who transferred as a "Bust" if they never played significantly at Auburn. There are 5 of 12 "Busts" in the Chizik/Malzahn era (41.6%). In the Tubberville era, we had 2 of 5 "Busts" (40%).

Owen Pappoe, 2019 - TBD
Bo Nix, 2019 - TBD
Calvin Ashley, 2017 - Bust
Derrick Brown, 2016
Byron Cowart, 2015 - Bust, Invited to 2019 NFL Combine
Roc Thomas, 2014 - Bust, Currently in the NFL
Tre' Williams, 2014
Montravius Adams, 2013
Carl Lawson, 2013
Christian Westerman, 2011 - Bust, Currently in the NFL
Michael Dyer, 2010 - Bust, Not Currently Active
Trovon Reed, 2010
Tray Blackmon, 2005 - Bust, One Season in CFL
Ben Obomanu, 2002
Carnell Williams, 2001
Lemarcus Rowell, 2001 - Bust, Two Seasons in CFL
Jason Campbell, 2000

Ashley and Cowart supposedly had work ethic issues. Dyer, Blackmon, and Rowell had discipline issues. Playing time issues were factors with Thomas and Westerman.

The majority of these "Busts" appear to be behavioral. Good sports psychology in the recruiting process could probably identify potential behavioral risks and how to manage them. Saban is a big believer is sports psychology. Also, Saban instructs his recruiters to not look at film until they have talked to the prospect's coach. What do they talk about with the coach? Probably not how fast the kid is, or how hard he hits. That's on the film. More likely they talk about work ethic and behavior.

3 thoughts:

1. Thank you for doing this leg work, and to anyone else who has gone to some trouble for this conversation.

2. I would say 5 of 10 busts in the Chiz/Malzahn era- since Pappoe and Nix are in the current recruiting year and we haven't played the first game yet- but I will also point out that Malzahn only owns 3 and 7 of those, respectively. 

3. If anybody gets really, REALLY bored, it would provide context and perspective to know how our rivals and the handful of regular playoff contenders- scary overlap in those two groups- have fared over the last 6 years. 

[tigerbrotha12 2,362]

On 2/11/2019 at 7:06 PM, AUght2win said:

I think we do. Michael Dyer, Calvin Ashley, Kyle Davis, Nate Craig Myers, Christian Westerman, Roc Thomas, Byron Cowart, even Trovon Reed (though he came on strong at the end of his career as a DB).

What should we call it? More importantly, how do we break it?

I say we call it the Lolley curse. Phillip Lolley, for those that don't know, was an Auburn coach from around 99-2012. He was probably one of the best talent evaluators in the nation. He was responsible for reeling in a lot of the famous diamond-in-the-rough 3 stars that Tubbs turned into impact players. My favorite story about Coach Lolley was near the end of his tenure, when he almost brought Jordan Matthews to Auburn. Matthews barely had any SEC offers, and eventually went to Vanderbilt where he set the SEC record for yards and receptions in a career. Lolley urged Chizik to offer Matthews, and Matthews even called Lolley on the eve of signing day, literally crying and begging for a chance to come to the plains. Chiz said no, and the rest is history.

Maybe that's when Lolley cursed us, much like the Cubs and the curse of the Billy goat. I mean, he left shortly after in 2012 and that IS when all these 5 stars started imploding (Dyer) or showing up as outright busts. 

No.

Cam Newton, Carl Lawson, Montravious Adams, Derrick Brown, Tre Williams, Marlon Davidson, Kerryon Johnson all disagree. 

[McLoofus 35,182]

Just now, tigerbrotha12 said:

No.

Cam Newton, Carl Lawson, Montravious Adams, Derrick Brown, Tre Williams, Marlon Davidson, Kerryon Johnson all disagree. 

What about Duke Williams, Jovon Robinson, Nate Craig-Meyers, Elijah Daniel and Kyle Davis? I think the numbers might actually look worse when you include "partial" 5* guys like Marlon and KJ. 

[keesler 5,924]

19 minutes ago, meh130 said:

The majority of these "Busts" appear to be behavioral. Good sports psychology in the recruiting process could probably identify potential behavioral risks and how to manage them. Saban is a big believer is sports psychology. Also, Saban instructs his recruiters to not look at film until they have talked to the prospect's coach. What do they talk about with the coach? Probably not how fast the kid is, or how hard he hits. That's on the film. More likely they talk about work ethic and behavior.

No one at Auburn has the desire in any way, shape or form to operate like Saban/uat.  Auburn prides itself on being a cut above in moral character, and as long as our HC continues to represent Auburn in an exemplary fashion and does things the right way, he will remain the coach of the future.  Saban has a win at all cost mentality, Malzhan does not.  

Now, I dare anyone to tell me I'm lying!

 

[tigerbrotha12 2,362]

16 minutes ago, McLoofus said:

What about Duke Williams, Jovon Robinson, Nate Craig-Meyers, Elijah Daniel and Kyle Davis? I think the numbers might actually look worse when you include "partial" 5* guys like Marlon and KJ. 

Duke was pretty good while he was at Auburn. I don't know, yeah we have some issues but its not like every 5 star that comes here is destined for failure.