Bet against Auburn’s offense vs. Penn State

[aubiefifty 17,072]

al.com

 

Bet against Auburn’s offense vs. Penn State

By Christopher Smith

4-6 minutes

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Auburn quarterback Bo Nix (10) lines up under center during the first half of an NCAA college football game against Akron Saturday, Sept. 4, 2021, in Auburn, Ala. (AP Photo/Butch Dill)AP

Context matters when taking stock of Auburn’s rushing success during the first two games of the season.

Still, no matter the opponent, 680 rushing yards on 9.6 yards per carry and eight touchdowns is a magnificent start to the Bryan Harsin era.

Tank Bigsby, Shaun Shivers and Jarquez Hunter are all averaging at least 10 yards per carry. Pro Football Focus has graded Auburn’s run offense as the second-best in the country and the run blocking as tied for 12th.

You know what Big Ten team usually is good at running the football between the tackles? Wisconsin. The Badgers entered the season with the nation’s 13th-best offensive line according to Phil Steele.

Penn State didn’t need to respect quarterback Graham Mertz and the Wisconsin passing game. What happened? The Nittany Lions held Wisconsin to 3.1 yards per carry.

The Badgers didn’t give up, rushing 58 times. They managed a lot of first downs but only 10 points.

Auburn is going to win its share of games this season if it continues to run the way it has. But against the strongest opponents – like SP+ No. 7 Penn State on the road – it needs to present a passing threat.

Penn State – 5.5-point home favorites against the Tigers – lost a field full of NFL draft choices in the last two years.

Those picks included linebacker Micah Parsons (first round, No. 13 overall), defensive end Odafe Oweh (first round, No. 31 overall), defensive end Yetur Gross-Matos (second round), cornerback John Reid (fourth round) and three other drafted players.

This isn’t an invincible unit. But it’s a unit that can probably shut down even a very good one-dimensional, run-based offense.

That leads us to Bo Nix. He beat Oregon on national TV in his first start as a true freshman, creating (probably unfair) expectations. Now the Auburn football program has charged Harsin and Mike Bobo with manufacturing the sort of growth in Nix that everyone has been wanting since that first game.

Nix has played eight teams ranked in the top 11 of the AP Top 25 during his career at Auburn. In those eight games, Nix has completed just 52.2 percent of his passes for 5.3 yards per attempt, six touchdowns and nine interceptions. He’s also taken 17 sacks.

Last season, when under pressure, Nix completed just 40.7 percent of his passes according to Pro Football Focus, throwing zero touchdowns and three interceptions on such plays.

Auburn’s Herculean rushing effort against Alabama State papered over the fact that Nix completed just 9 of 17 passes for 6.4 yards per attempt. His receivers didn’t help, dropping too many passes.

Penn State ranks third in Pro Football Focus’ coverage grades through two games. Penn State’s defense ranks fifth overall in SP+.

Harsin has a strong track record with quarterbacks.

But for all his imperfections, Gus Malzahn is a “smarter” coach at UCF than he was at Auburn last season because of Dillon Gabriel. UCF’s quarterback has completed 65.8 percent of his passes as the Knights have scored 99 points in two wins.

Harsin and Bobo aren’t magicians. They can present a running threat. They can scheme around Nix’s strengths and limitations. But when Auburn needs to convert a big third down on the road, and Penn State brings pressure, can they transform Nix into a different player?

Auburn’s rushing stats in the first two games would make even the most ardent devotees to EA Sports’ NCAA Football video game series blush. Perhaps the Tigers are so good on the ground that even Penn State, which mostly stoned Wisconsin, won’t be able to contain them.

More likely, the Nittany Lions will play to stop the run, pressure Nix and dare the quarterback to do something he usually hasn’t been able to do: beat a potentially elite defense while defenders buzz around him.

I’m counting on Auburn’s eye-popping final scores in their first two weeks, and optimism that Nix will be much better under Harsin, to inflate the Tigers in the betting market.

Give me Penn State -6 at home.

Christopher Smith specializes in handicapping college football and basketball. He founded Sports Locksmith to share his analysis.

[McLoofus 35,182]

13 minutes ago, aubiefifty said:

Penn State – 5.5-point home favorites against the Tigers – lost a field full of NFL draft choices in the last two years.

[aubiefifty 17,072]

5 minutes ago, McLoofus said:

i am scared of this game. i or we have been let down so many times over the last few years i want a win to crow about. yes we have beat bama but this one will go a long way to regain our respect after some dismal showings. so much frustration could be expelled by a good win at a magical setting. and i think we find out saturday night we just how much bo has improved. and coach bobo has caught grief with a lot of folks saying he is not what he was. and i disagree with that. some people laughed when we hired him. i do think we will be prepared and have a great chance. it's killing me but i love it................

[McLoofus 35,182]

1 minute ago, aubiefifty said:

it's killing me but i love it

I know you're speaking specifically to the anticipation for this game, and I agree. But this is the most perfect and succinct explanation of being an Auburn fan I think I've ever read. And I'm sure a lot of other fan bases in every sport would say it applies to them as well.

 

[aubiefifty 17,072]

11 minutes ago, McLoofus said:

I know you're speaking specifically to the anticipation for this game, and I agree. But this is the most perfect and succinct explanation of being an Auburn fan I think I've ever read. And I'm sure a lot of other fan bases in every sport would say it applies to them as well.

 

i can honestly say love most auburn folks. auburn is magical to me. i was lucky to know only super awesome auburn fans growing up. Auburn is the only team i have never ever pulled against or never  given up on. and tho it sounds corny auburn is my heart. growing up it had a mayberry type fill in it. and people, even students always watched out for me. i was less than ten and allowed to walk anywhere i wanted in auburn. it has always been one of the brighter spots of my life.

[Hank2020 3,223]

30 minutes ago, aubiefifty said:

i am scared of this game. i or we have been let down so many times over the last few years i want a win to crow about. yes we have beat bama but this one will go a long way to regain our respect after some dismal showings. so much frustration could be expelled by a good win at a magical setting. and i think we find out saturday night we just how much bo has improved. and coach bobo has caught grief with a lot of folks saying he is not what he was. and i disagree with that. some people laughed when we hired him. i do think we will be prepared and have a great chance. it's killing me but i love it................

Coach Bobo could have many OC jobs. Probably not as many HC jobs. I think we got a great OC. Hope he stays for a while. I think his and Harsin’s offense should help us in recruiting .

[aubiefifty 17,072]

15 minutes ago, Hank2020 said:

Coach Bobo could have many OC jobs. Probably not as many HC jobs. I think we got a great OC. Hope he stays for a while. I think his and Harsin’s offense should help us in recruiting .

jawja and s carolina fans have given him hell. and the best i remember he always had a hell of a game plan when any of his teams played us that had decent talent.

[AUx 3,016]

I'd only be disappoint at the type of game where "he who shall not be named" produced an embarrassing performance on the field and Auburn gave a win to a team trying to give it to Auburn. In a battle of competent foes, somebody has to lose. If AU just gets beat here in the 3rd game of an entirely new culture, I can live with that.

[Hank2020 3,223]

6 minutes ago, aubiefifty said:

jawja and s carolina fans have given him hell. and the best i remember he always had a hell of a game plan when any of his teams played us that had decent talent.

I also believe you can’t minimize the additional influence of Harsin on the offensive side.

[Hank2020 3,223]

1 minute ago, AUx said:

I'd only be disappoint at the type of game where "he who shall not be named" produced an embarrassing performance on the field and Auburn gave a win to a team trying to give it to Auburn. In a battle of competent foes, somebody has to lose. If AU just gets beat here in the 3rd game of an entirely new culture, I can live with that.

Have to, as not being an Auburn fan is BOT an option!!

[aubiefifty 17,072]

1 minute ago, Hank2020 said:

I also believe you can’t minimize the additional influence of Harsin on the offensive side.

i am thrilled with our coaching staff. i love greene for hiring harsin as well. i think our special teams are better than they have been and that excites me...............

[McLoofus 35,182]

1 minute ago, Hank2020 said:

I also believe you can’t minimize the additional influence of Harsin on the offensive side.

Elite QB developer working under elite play caller and game planner. Always potential for personality clashes and power struggles but it's a strong combo on paper.

[Beaker 2,457]

1 hour ago, McLoofus said:

I know you're speaking specifically to the anticipation for this game, and I agree. But this is the most perfect and succinct explanation of being an Auburn fan I think I've ever read. And I'm sure a lot of other fan bases in every sport would say it applies to them as well.

 

Being an Auburn fan truly is like riding a roller coaster - you two nailed it.   @aubiefifty

I have a love-hate feeling about big games.    I saw so many and we won so many in the 80's and 90's, then we had some dominant runs here and there like 2004 and 2010 and 2013 -      man....I have a feeling Harsin is laser focused on this game.   

 

I am travelling and will see it first hand.   WDE

 

 

[McLoofus 35,182]

2 minutes ago, Beaker said:

Being an Auburn fan truly is like riding a roller coaster - you two nailed it.   @aubiefifty

I have a love-hate feeling about big games.    I saw so many and we won so many in the 80's and 90's, then we had some dominant runs here and there like 2004 and 2010 and 2013 -      man....I have a feeling Harsin is laser focused on this game.   

I am travelling and will see it first hand.   WDE

USC 2003. Maybe the most hyped I've ever been for a game. Maybe the worst I've ever felt after. Actually, no, that was the 2013 BCSCG. At least I knew we were losing to USC long before the game was over. I was already at the acceptance stage of grief by the final whistle. 

[Beaker 2,457]

1 minute ago, McLoofus said:

USC 2003. Maybe the most hyped I've ever been for a game. Maybe the worst I've ever felt after. Actually, no, that was the 2013 BCSCG. At least I knew we were losing to USC long before the game was over. I was already at the acceptance stage of grief by the final whistle. 

man....don't do that.   I had erased that game from my memory.  

 

Yeah I am still bitter (?) about losing the 2013 game.    Not bitter, but disappointed.   I just think more could have been done in the second half.   

[gravejd 3,272]

1 hour ago, Hank2020 said:

I also believe you can’t minimize the additional influence of Harsin on the offensive side.

Most definitely, i was not excited about the Bobo hire but i kept an open mind about it since i knew that Harsin was going to be heavily involved. And really this has turned out to be the thing i most like about Harsin and the staff. That he is hiring people that can bring him new ideas and perspectives on running an offense. I hate to look across the state but after so much success you'd have to be stupid to not at least try and take some things from what Saban does. And what he has done over the last 6 years or so is completely revamp that offense. You gotta be open to new ideas and change to last in this business. 

And i can understand being hesitant with the offense. The Al St game showed that we still have some work to do on that side of the ball. Dropping easy touchdowns and making bad throws. We can't start like that again and beat Penn St. But i also think we need to hit some passes early to get our running game going. Its going to be interesting to see how the coaches open the game on the offensive side of the ball. 

[CoffeeTiger 5,223]

I think this is a fair article. 

I'm cynical by nature, but I'm not personally feeling great about Auburn's chances here just because of our performance the past couple years in big games, and Nix is still in a 'prove it' stage even as a 3 year starter. 

A lot of unknowns and Penn State is a very tough place to play.  I'll obviously be pulling for our guys and we'll see what happens. 

[VicTree 143]

45 minutes ago, McLoofus said:

USC 2003. Maybe the most hyped I've ever been for a game. Maybe the worst I've ever felt after. Actually, no, that was the 2013 BCSCG. At least I knew we were losing to USC long before the game was over. I was already at the acceptance stage of grief by the final whistle. 

Holy cow!  One of the worst displays of offensive coaching ineptitude I've ever seen, and I'm not even a coach.  USC kept slanting every play, we couldn't block it, and not once did our brilliant staff try any misdirection.  We could see from the upper deck how well one of those misdirection pitches with Caddy would have worked, kept waiting to see it, never did.     

 

[McLoofus 35,182]

8 minutes ago, VicTree said:

Holy cow!  One of the worst displays of offensive coaching ineptitude I've ever seen, and I'm not even a coach.  USC kept slanting every play, we couldn't block it, and not once did our brilliant staff try any misdirection.  We could see from the upper deck how well one of those misdirection pitches with Caddy would have worked, kept waiting to see it, never did.     

Poor NallsMinger.

[Trakem 85]

3 hours ago, Beaker said:

man....don't do that.   I had erased that game from my memory.  

 

Yeah I am still bitter (?) about losing the 2013 game.    Not bitter, but disappointed.   I just think more could have been done in the second half.   

And it was our special teams play that lost the game.  Still can't believe that!

[McLoofus 35,182]

8 minutes ago, Trakem said:

And it was our special teams play that lost the game.  Still can't believe that!

There are many schools of thought on what led to us losing that game, which suggests that it was many things combined that lost that game. Injuries, mistakes by every unit, a Heisman QB and a 7 ft WR on the other side, some questionable coaching... it was a lot of stuff.

Special teams was actually one block away from winning it at the end with a play that would have made folks forget the Prayer and the Kick Six. Just a crazy game and season. 

 

[jAUSon 2,836]

4 hours ago, AUx said:

I'd only be disappoint at the type of game where "he who shall not be named" produced an embarrassing performance on the field and Auburn gave a win to a team trying to give it to Auburn. In a battle of competent foes, somebody has to lose. If AU just gets beat here in the 3rd game of an entirely new culture, I can live with that.

Yeap. Win or get beat. We were losing these games the night before. That nonsense needs to end.

[Timbeaux38 299]

AL.com running an article saying bet against Auburn? You dont say.......

[AuburnTiger4Life 2,225]

6 minutes ago, Timbeaux38 said:

AL.com running an article saying bet against Auburn? You dont say.......

Yeah. I scrolled right past the OP when I saw al.com 

[McLoofus 35,182]

52 minutes ago, jAUSon said:

We were losing these games the night before.

Truth.