Final thoughts on Alabama...

[StatTiger 3,188]

I still believe that the better running team holds the edge in the outcome of the Iron Bowl this weekend. Again, 17 of the last 19 winners had more rushing yards at the end of the game. If the goal for both teams is to be more physical, it will have to come from the running game or the ability to stop it.

Auburn has a slight edge in the OL and possibly the DL. Alabama has the edge at QB, WR and LB. Auburn has the edge at RB and a slight edge in the secondary. Auburn has a decisive edge on special teams.

Coming into the game, Alabama should be more motivated and emotionally higher than Auburn simply because Auburn has won the last 4 meetings and 5 of the last 6 games. Alabam will have a major chip on their shoulder when Auburn comes to town. If Auburn can weather the first ten minutes of the storm, the advantage flips to Auburn. For Auburn, there is no longer the distraction of the BCS, conference title or a high ranking. It now comes down to one game and who wants it more.

If the game comes down to the quarterbacks, Alabama wins. I say this based on the current physical condition of Brandon Cox and the performance by both quarterbacks under pressure this season. John Parker Wilson can make all the throws forcing Auburn to defend the entire field.

For the most part, the better or higher ranked team normally wins this game. Yes, there have been upsets in the Iron Bowl but the majority have been by Alabama and not Auburn.

Looking at the common opponents, Auburn is the better team. Auburn defeated LSU, Florida and Mississippi State, while Alabama lost to all three. Both teams lost to Arkansas, though Alabama should have won their meeting with the Razorbacks. Both teams struggled on the scoreboard to beat Ole Miss and both teams lost to an opponent from the East (Georgia, Tennessee).

I believe that the team that can score at least 20 points will win this game. This concerns me because Alabama has been to the red zone more than any other team in the conference (46). In a tight ball game, if the Tide makes their normal 4-5 trips to the red zone, all they need to do is make one FG drive into a TD drive than they normally do and it might be the difference in the ball game.

Both teams strive for offensive balance but Alabama’s strength is clearly their passing game and Auburn’s strength comes from the running game. Again, I give Alabama a slight edge on offense simply because Auburn will have to defend the entire field. Wilson gives the Crimson Tide the ability to hit the big pass play downfield. Because 86% of Auburn’s passes stretch the field 20-yards, Alabama has the luxury of defending the width of the field rather than vertically.

Both quarterbacks have prospered on 1st down, especially John Parker Wilson. 40% of Wilson’s passes come on first down and the Tiger defense has struggled on 1st down pass defense in the last three games. This will be a major factor in the game if Alabama elects to pass on 1st down as often as they did against LSU (17 times). I believe Shula will attempt to establish the run on 1st down early but if they struggle, he will fall back onto throwing on 1st down like they have most of the year.

Both teams have struggled applying pressure on the opposing quarterback as of late, though Auburn does have twice as many sacks than Alabama on defense. If Auburn can apply consistent pressure on Wilson, Alabama is toast. Both teams have given up a high number of sacks but Alabama has the edge with a mobile quarterback. For Auburn to have success with the passing game, more 3 step drops will be needed rather than 5 or 7 step drops.

In terms of coaching, I give the edge to Alabama on defense with Joe Kines and the offensive edge to Al Borges from Auburn. The overall edge goes in favor of Auburn under Tommy Tuberville based on his record against Alabama and his better success in the big game than Shula.

Potential Offensive stars…

Traditionally, the offensive star of this game has normally been from the running back position. This is the result of coaches from both sides being conservative in their approach to the game. In the past, the head coaches would wait for the other to make a mistake or gamble on a big play.

This year, I see the potential offensive stars from Auburn coming in the following order. Kenny Irons or Brad Lester depending on who gets the most carries. If Kines crowds the box with 8-9 defenders, I would not be surprised to see Lester have a big run in the ball game. Courtney Taylor would be next because he will probably have 5-10 passes thrown his way and I expect to see him run the ball on a reverse or two. Finally, Brandon Cox is my third choice though I hope Cox needs only 15-18 pass attempts. He will not throw for over 200-yards but he might connect on several key passes during the game.

For Alabama, John Parker Wilson would be the first potential star for Alabama. It’s a no-brainer simply because Wilson is the heart and soul of the Alabama offense. I imagine Wilson will pass for 200-250 yards win or lose. D.J. Hall should have a big game as well and I would not be surprised to see him make two big catches during the game. My final choice for Alabama would be Kenneth Darby. Darby has struggled in his two meetings against Auburn but he is a quality running back who could rise up to have a big game against Auburn.

Be the beast of all beasts Auburn!!!

[BamaGrad03 0]

Good writeup stat. The only thing i would probably disagree with you is on the secondary. Especially if Brock doesnt play. Simeon Castille leads the SEC in takeaways with 5 ints and 3 fumble recoveries. Ramzee Robinson is as good as DI. And Jeffery Dukes is a solid safety. We will hurt a little since Rashaad Johnson is out hurt, but Marcus Carter started the season as the starter and eventually lost his job to Rashaad, so he has seen action.

I think Darby will have a decent day. I think Lester and Irons will run for a combined 200+ yards. I think this is one of those weird games though where running wont be as important.

Auburn has the better pass rush off the edges. Your DEs get to the QB much better than ours. And we dont do a lot to take advantage of an overpursing defense (see lack of screen passes and draws from the shotgun).

Expect to see at least two jump balls to DJ. He can sky and they like his chances against most DBs. Problem is, if Keith doesnt play...DJ may be surrounded by two or three AU DBs.

AU has a decided advantage in special teams. Our kickoff coverage is poor and I think Tristan will eat up yards on KR. Our punting has been decent...he doesnt boom any 50 yarders but he rarely shanks one for 18. Our field goal kicking is good inside 40 yards. But anything outside of that you can hang it up.

I like our chances against BC if we cover the flats. But we usually get bitten by a TE or RB catching the ball at least twice a game.

Our punt returner - Javier Arenas is special. He can break one at any second. Problem is, our punt return blocking is abysmal. So he will probably get hit as soon as he catches the ball....fyi he has yet to call fair catch this year.

I like Alabama in this one. Motivation factor, home field, better QB, and hopefully some luck.

[TigerOne 1,152]

ausome stuff Stat, thanks for the effort

[vatz22au 142]

Good writeup stat. The only thing i would probably disagree with you is on the secondary. Especially if Brock doesnt play. Simeon Castille leads the SEC in takeaways with 5 ints and 3 fumble recoveries. Ramzee Robinson is as good as DI. And Jeffery Dukes is a solid safety. We will hurt a little since Rashaad Johnson is out hurt, but Marcus Carter started the season as the starter and eventually lost his job to Rashaad, so he has seen action.

SEC Pass Def.:

1. Georgia

2. Auburn 158.6 yds/g

3. LSU

4. Bama 172.8 yds/g

[ECEstudentUA 9]

Good writeup stat. The only thing i would probably disagree with you is on the secondary. Especially if Brock doesnt play. Simeon Castille leads the SEC in takeaways with 5 ints and 3 fumble recoveries. Ramzee Robinson is as good as DI. And Jeffery Dukes is a solid safety. We will hurt a little since Rashaad Johnson is out hurt, but Marcus Carter started the season as the starter and eventually lost his job to Rashaad, so he has seen action.

I think Darby will have a decent day. I think Lester and Irons will run for a combined 200+ yards. I think this is one of those weird games though where running wont be as important.

Auburn has the better pass rush off the edges. Your DEs get to the QB much better than ours. And we dont do a lot to take advantage of an overpursing defense (see lack of screen passes and draws from the shotgun).

Expect to see at least two jump balls to DJ. He can sky and they like his chances against most DBs. Problem is, if Keith doesnt play...DJ may be surrounded by two or three AU DBs.

AU has a decided advantage in special teams. Our kickoff coverage is poor and I think Tristan will eat up yards on KR. Our punting has been decent...he doesnt boom any 50 yarders but he rarely shanks one for 18. Our field goal kicking is good inside 40 yards. But anything outside of that you can hang it up.

I like our chances against BC if we cover the flats. But we usually get bitten by a TE or RB catching the ball at least twice a game.

Our punt returner - Javier Arenas is special. He can break one at any second. Problem is, our punt return blocking is abysmal. So he will probably get hit as soon as he catches the ball....fyi he has yet to call fair catch this year.

I like Alabama in this one. Motivation factor, home field, better QB, and hopefully some luck.

Once agian, its a toss up. I think AU has a better team, but it is at bama and its the Iron Bowl....who knows!

If I were a betting man, I would stay away from this one for sure.

[BamaGrad03 0]

1. Georgia

2. Auburn 158.6 yds/g

3. LSU

4. Bama 172.8 yds/g

Yeah and us facing Hawaii in the first game...against the 3rd highest yardage passer in the country had nothing to do with that?

Teams have thrown on us and gotten yardage when they couldnt run at all (see UT and UF). But in UT's case they also threw 3 picks.

[WarTiger 3,923]

I like Alabama in this one. Motivation factor, home field, better QB, and hopefully some luck.

Of course you would. Nobody here would expect you to say anything different. While I don't agree with anything you said that gives uat the edge the one thing that stands out the most is Home field. Since when does UAT being at home have anything to do with it? They've struggled at home all season, and it obviously hasn't hleped them in this series yet...

[80Tiger 904]

Great information. Their passing game is the concern. Especially their receivers. JPW has thrown the ball up for grabs multiple times this year, only to have their guy catch the ball. They do a very good job of going to the ball.

When we have the ball, teams that run a zone defense give us trouble. That is what GA did all day. DB's can react to BC ball because it just does not have that much zip. But, UA tends to run man to man coverage and BC is very good against that because of his accuracy.

I don't know what the outcome will be, I just hope this isn't 2001. It sure smells that way.

[autigeremt 6,716]

I like Alabama in this one. Motivation factor, home field, better QB, and hopefully some luck.

Of course you would. Nobody here would expect you to say anything different. While I don't agree with anything you said that gives uat the edge the one thing that stands out the most is Home field. Since when does UAT being at home have anything to do with it? They've struggled at home all season, and it obviously hasn't hleped them in this series yet...

I agree with you on that! Auburn gets up for big road games better than any other in the SEC over the last 4 years! Alabama has yet to beat Auburn in BDS, so I have to agree with you on the home field.

John Parker has played very well for Bama this year. He's a little banged up, but they do not ask a whole lot out of his legs. But if he has to run, he might not make it past the 2nd quarter.

Brandon is in the same boat. Both backups should be ready to play in this game! That's what I think

.02 worth, anyway

[PowerI 0]

I'm worried about this game. Our secondary has been a weakness all year and our linebackers have not helped out much. Wilhite gets beat atleast once every game for a big play. I don't know if our corners can cover bammers receivers. Also, our team does not play with any emotion. The only two reliable receivers we seem to have are Courtney Taylor and Rod Smith. Rod needs more experience and Courtney Taylor is always double teamed. Also, our line has not proven to be as reliable as I expected. I wish Tuberville had not rubbed the fear the thumb in bammers face because they will be pumped about playing Auburn and I don't know that we will have that same emotion.

[WarTim 3,457]

Good writeup stat. The only thing i would probably disagree with you is on the secondary. Especially if Brock doesnt play. Simeon Castille leads the SEC in takeaways with 5 ints and 3 fumble recoveries. Ramzee Robinson is as good as DI. And Jeffery Dukes is a solid safety. We will hurt a little since Rashaad Johnson is out hurt, but Marcus Carter started the season as the starter and eventually lost his job to Rashaad, so he has seen action.

I think Darby will have a decent day. I think Lester and Irons will run for a combined 200+ yards. I think this is one of those weird games though where running wont be as important.

Auburn has the better pass rush off the edges. Your DEs get to the QB much better than ours. And we dont do a lot to take advantage of an overpursing defense (see lack of screen passes and draws from the shotgun).

Expect to see at least two jump balls to DJ. He can sky and they like his chances against most DBs. Problem is, if Keith doesnt play...DJ may be surrounded by two or three AU DBs.

AU has a decided advantage in special teams. Our kickoff coverage is poor and I think Tristan will eat up yards on KR. Our punting has been decent...he doesnt boom any 50 yarders but he rarely shanks one for 18. Our field goal kicking is good inside 40 yards. But anything outside of that you can hang it up.

I like our chances against BC if we cover the flats. But we usually get bitten by a TE or RB catching the ball at least twice a game.

Our punt returner - Javier Arenas is special. He can break one at any second. Problem is, our punt return blocking is abysmal. So he will probably get hit as soon as he catches the ball....fyi he has yet to call fair catch this year.

I like Alabama in this one. Motivation factor, home field, better QB, and hopefully some luck.

Better QB?

I thought a QB was judged by WINS? (At least that is what we heard over and over in reguards to jay barker. So, which is it?)

[WarTim 3,457]

"Emotion" last 'till you get hit in the MOUTH!

Neither team has an edged in "emotions".

[AuNuma1 1]

If our OL doesn't protect BC, it's going to be a long day. And if KI is hurt, he needs to just get out of Lester's way. Lester has been playing with some serious intensity lately...the kind I haven't seen from KI since the WSU game.

All I want is a good game. At this point in the season, there's not much separating these two teams. bammer is playing better than a 6-5 record would suggest. I'd like to think CTT and his staff have the edge but I have a feeling that T'town is going to be rockin tomorrow. I think I heard that this will be the largest crowd to ever watch a game in the state...

[TheDrewYouKnew 3]

And if KI is hurt, he needs to just get out of Lester's way.

This should equally apply to all positions.

[Argo 8]

Great write up Stat.

I won't be back before the game is over, so good luck in the game guys. Let's hope we see a well played game with no injuries!!

RTR!!

[aucanucktiger 1,798]

That's terrific stuff Stat, thanks.

I'd just say that probably no game in college football lends itself LESS to prediction by statistic than the Ironbowl. 18-22 year olds in a game that will be emotional for 4 quarters is not going to be like anything they've been through this season for comparison purposes. And some youngsters crumble in this game while others shine...regardless of what they did the previous games. Fun stuff though and well researched.

[SKCAUB 0]

I agree with you on that! Auburn gets up for big road games better than any other in the SEC over the last 4 years! Alabama has yet to beat Auburn in BDS, so I have to agree with you on the home field.

Try the last THREE CENTURIES!!!

[AU alum 2]

Great write up Stat.

I won't be back before the game is over, so good luck in the game guys. Let's hope we see a well played game with no injuries!!

RTR!!

Around the bowl and down the hole.