U.S. Economy: Expansion Was Faster Than Estimated

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U.S. Economy: Expansion Was Faster Than Estimated

(Update1)

By Courtney Schlisserman

Aug. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Surging exports and business spending propelled U.S. growth to the fastest pace in more than a year before turmoil in the credit markets forced the Federal Reserve to warn of a bleaker outlook.

Gross domestic product rose at a 4 percent annual rate in the second quarter, the Commerce Department said in Washington, up from an initial estimate of 3.4 percent. The median forecast of economists polled by Bloomberg News was 4.1 percent.

The figures may be the peak of the expansion for this year as the cost of borrowing increased in August and the Fed said that risks to growth ``increased appreciably.'' In a sign that the labor market is weakening, separate government numbers today showed claims for jobless benefits climbed to the highest level since April.

``The underlying economy was growing in the first half,'' said Peter Kretzmer, a senior economist at Banc of America Securities LLC in New York. ``We expect it to slow modestly, but not in such a pronounced way. It will slow enough, though, that the Fed will find an excuse'' to reduce interest rates, he said.

Kretzmer accurately predicted the pace of expansion.

The Fed's preferred inflation measure, which is tied to consumer spending and strips out food and energy costs, rose at a 1.3 percent annual rate. The pace of increase was the slowest in four years.

Treasury notes remained higher after the reports. The yield on the benchmark 10-year note declined 4 basis points to 4.52 percent at 9:22 a.m. in New York. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.

Trade Deficit

A bigger jump in exports and smaller gain in imports contributed to a reduction in the trade deficit, the report on gross domestic product showed. Trade contributed 1.4 percentage points to growth, the most since 1996.

Spending on corporate construction projects and new equipment also boosted growth. Commercial construction jumped 28 percent, the most since 1981. Investment in equipment increased at a 4.3 percent pace, almost double the previous estimate.

Inventories, which were forecast to play a role in the projected increase in growth, were little changed from the initial GDP estimate published in July.

Jobless Claims

Initial unemployment claims climbed by 9,000 to 334,000 in the week that ended Aug. 25, the Labor Department said today in Washington. The four-week moving average, a less volatile measure, increased to 324,500 from 318,250.

Help-wanted advertising in American newspapers fell in July to the lowest level since 1958, and online job postings also declined. The Conference Board's index dropped to 25 last month, matching analysts' forecasts, from 26 in June. The trend in the help-wanted measure has fallen since 2000 as print media have been losing advertising to the Internet.

The deepest housing slump in 16 years is prompting builders and mortgage-lending companies such as American Home Mortgage Investment Corp. to fire workers. That may weigh on consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy.

``Business psyche is being more and more affected by what's been going on in the credit markets,'' said Zoltan Pozsar, a senior economist at Moody's Economy.com in West Chester, Pennsylvania. ``If this continues for the next few weeks, it'll definitely be a sign that hiring is being affected by the credit-market problems.''

Fed Reversal

In highlighting risks to growth, policy makers reversed their stance from their last meeting on Aug. 7 that inflation was the biggest concern for the economic expansion.

Traders and economists expect the Fed to lower its benchmark overnight lending rate between banks at or before policy makers next meet on Sept. 18. Chairman Ben S. Bernanke will discuss housing and monetary policy tomorrow, when he addresses the Kansas City Fed's annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

Declines in residential construction subtracted 0.6 percentage point from growth in the second quarter, more than previously estimated.

Housing will probably deduct about a percentage point from GDP at least through early 2008, according to economists at JPMorgan Chase & Co.

As a result, growth will average 2.25 percent in the six months starting in October, a percentage point less than previously projected, Bruce Kasman, JPMorgan's chief economist, said in a note to clients last week.

Lehman Lowers Forecast

Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. lowered its forecast last week for the period covering October through June 2008 to 1.8 percent, almost a half percentage point less than previously thought.

In one of the earliest economic readings to cover August, consumer confidence dropped by the most in two years, the Conference Board said this week. The measure retreated to 105 this month and the share of people who said jobs are plentiful declined.

In today's report, consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of the economy, was revised up to an annual rate of 1.4 percent from an initial estimate of 1.3 percent. The gain was still the smallest in a year.

``Our consumer is impacted obviously because they see the value of their homes go down, there's a sort of wealth effect,'' Farooq Kathwari, chief executive officer of Ethan Allen Interiors Inc., said in an interview on Aug. 28. ``Yet they're still interested in furnishing their homes, they're still buying.''

Today's GDP report included a first look at corporate profits for the quarter. Earnings adjusted for the value of inventories and depreciation of capital expenditures, known as profits from current production, rose 6.4 percent, the most in more than a year, to an annual rate of $1.65 trillion. Compared with a year earlier, profits were up 4.5 percent.

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