SILENCE IN SYRIA, PANIC IN IRAN

[DKW 86 7,444]

SILENCE IN SYRIA, PANIC IN IRAN

Written by Dr. Jack Wheeler

Wednesday, 19 September 2007

>> One of India's top ranking generals assigned to liaise with the Iranian

>> military recently returned to New Delhi from several days in Tehran - in

>> a state of complete amazement.

>>

>> "Everyone in the government and military can only talk of one thing," he

>> reports. "No matter who I talked to, all they could do was ask me, over

>> and over again, 'Do you think the Americans will attack us?' 'When will

>> the Americans attack us?' 'Will the Americans attack us in a joint

>> operation with the Israelis?' How massive will the attack be?' on and

>> on, endlessly. The Iranians are in a state of total panic."

>>

>> And that was before September 6. Since then, it's panic-squared in

>> Tehran. The mullahs are freaking out in fear. Why? Because of the

>> silence in Syria.

>>

>> On September 6, Israeli Air Force F-15 and F-16s conducted a devastating

>> attack on targets deep inside Syria near the city of Dayr az-Zawr.

>> Israel's military censors have muzzled the Israeli media, enforcing an

>> extraordinary silence about the identity of the targets. Massive

>> speculation in the world press has followed, such as Brett Stephens'

>> Osirak II? in yesterday's (9/18) Wall St. Journal.

>>

>> Stephens and most everyone else have missed the real story. It is not

>> Israel's silence that "speaks volumes" as he claims, but Syria's. Why

>> would the Syrian government be so tight-lipped about an act of war

>> perpetrated on their soil?

>>

>> The first half of the answer lies in this story that appeared in the

>> Israeli media last month (8/13): Syria's Antiaircraft System Most

>> Advanced In World. Syria has gone on a profligate buying spree, spending

>> vast sums on Russian systems, "considered the cutting edge in aircraft

>> interception technology."

>>

>> Syria now "possesses the most crowded antiaircraft system in the world,"

>> with "more than 200 antiaircraft batteries of different types," some of

>> which are so new that they have been installed in Syria "before being

>> introduced into Russian operation service."

>>

>> While you're digesting that, take a look at the map of Syria:

>>

>>

>>

>> Notice how far away Dayr az-Zawr is from Israel. An F15/16 attack there

>> is not a tiptoe across the border, but a deep, deep penetration of

>> Syrian airspace. And guess what happened with the Russian

>> super-hyper-sophisticated cutting edge antiaircraft missile batteries

>> when that penetration took place on September 6th.

>>

>> Nothing.

>>

>> El blanko. Silence. The systems didn't even light up, gave no indication

>> whatever of any detection of enemy aircraft invading Syrian airspace,

>> zip, zero, nada. The Israelis (with a little techie assistance from us)

>> blinded the Russkie antiaircraft systems so completely the Syrians

>> didn't even know they were blinded.

>>

>> Now you see why the Syrians have been scared speechless. They thought

>> they were protected - at enormous expense - only to discover they are

>> defenseless. As in naked.

>>

>> Thus the Great Iranian Freak-Out - for this means Iran is just as

>> nakedly defenseless as Syria. I can tell you that there are a lot of

>> folks in the Kirya (IDF headquarters in Tel Aviv) and the Pentagon right

>> now who are really enjoying the mullahs' predicament. Let's face it:

>> scaring the terror masters in Tehran out of their wits is fun.

>>

>> It's so much fun, in fact, that an attack destroying Iran's nuclear

>> facilities and the Revolutionary Guard command/control centers has been

>> delayed, so that France (under new management) can get in on the fun too.

>>

>> On Sunday (9/16), Sarkozy's foreign minister Bernard Kouchner announced

>> that "France should prepare for the possibility of war over Iran's

>> nuclear program."

>>

>> All of this has caused Tehran to respond with maniacal threats. On

>> Monday (9/17), a government website proclaimed that "600 Shihab-3

>> missiles" will be fired at targets in Israel in response to an attack

>> upon Iran by the US/Israel. This was followed by Iranian deputy air

>> force chief Gen. Mohammad Alavi announcing today (9/19) that "we will

>> attack their (Israeli) territory with our fighter bombers as a response

>> to any attack."

>>

>> A sure sign of panic is to make a threat that everyone knows is a bluff.

>> So our, and Tel Aviv's response to Iranian bluster is a

>> thank-you-for-sharing yawn and a laugh. Few things rattle the mullahs'

>> cages more than a yawn and a laugh.

>>

>> Yet no matter how much fun this sport with the mullahs is, it is also

>> deadly serious. The pressure build-up on Iran is getting enormous.

>> Something is going to blow and soon. The hope is that the blow-up will

>> be internal, that the regime will implode from within.

>>

>> But make no mistake: an all-out full regime take-out air assault upon

>> Iran is coming if that hope doesn't materialize within the next 60 to 90

>> days. The Sept. 6 attack on Syria was the shot across Iran's bow.

>>

>> So - what was attacked near Dayr az-Zawr? It's possible it was North

>> Korean "nuclear material" recently shipped to Syria, i.e., stuff to make

>> radioactively "dirty" warheads, but nothing to make a real nuke with as

>> the Norks don't have real nukes (see Why North Korea's Nuke Test Is Such

>> Good News, October 2006).

>>

>> Another possibility is it was to take out a stockpile of long-range

>> Zilzal surface-to-surface missiles recently shipped from Iran for an

>> attack on Israel.

>>

>> A third is it was a hit on the stockpile of Saddam's chemical/bio

>> weapons snuck out of Iraq and into Syria for safekeeping before the US

>> invasion of April 2003.

>>

>> But the identity of the target is not the story - for the primary point

>> of the attack was not to destroy that target. It was to shut down

>> Syria's Russian air defense system during the attack. Doing so made the

>> attack an incredible success.

>>

>> Syria is shamed and silent. Iran is freaking out in panic. Defenseless

>> enemies are fun.

[autigeremt 6,717]

Very, very interesting.

[Tigermike 3,055]

"While you're digesting that, take a look at the map of Syria:"

"Notice how far away Dayr az-Zawr is from Israel. An F15/16 attack there is not a tiptoe across the border, but a deep, deep penetration of Syrian airspace. And guess what happened with the Russian super-hyper-sophisticated cutting edge antiaircraft missile batteries when that penetration took place on September 6th."

Several observations.

1. The silence from Israeli, American, and other Western security sources. (NO LEAKS)

2. They still don't know exactly what the target was. But Israel considered it deadly serious business, obviously the US must concurred, and the mild reaction from Europe and moderate Arab states tends to confirm their own agreement. But that it doesn't matter so much as the fact it could be hit without detection.

3. The last known major breakthrough in "cloaking" technology, Stealth, came over twenty years ago. Do you think they have been working on further advances since? Something that might have been kept under wraps for a possible attack on Iranian nuclear targets? That is until the Syrians began their little science project with North Korean "cement" (as the shipment from Pyongyang delivered to Syria shortly before the attack was labeled).

I am encouraged.

The air strike demonstrated that all of the sophisticated air defense weapons systems that both Syria and Iran spent millions of dollars to acquire are not worth a used burka when it comes to defending against Western military technology.

The air strike showed the Iranians that they aren't nearly as safe and secure as they had believed and had been telling themselves. Somewhere deep down inside they know that they could end up suffering the same fate as Saddam and his cronies should they finally push us too far. But I don't think they are anywhere close to an epiphany like Moammar Kadafi had.

[AURaptor 1,126]

I too have wondered at the silence coming from Syria. It's expected tha they cry out about the unjust attack of a baby milk factory, or some such, but nodda. Mums the word. Move along folks, nothing to see here......wtf ?

The story of the anti aircraft network utterly failing tells me 2 things. 1) We pantsed the Russians ( and Syrians ) w/ our technology and 2) What the hell is Syria so concerned about that it needs such a sophisticated AA network in the 1st place?? It's nestled in among its Muslim neighbors, all friends under Allah, right ? So , why the tight security ???