Jess Nichols of Tidefans on the Iron Bowl

[DKW 86 7,451]

http://www.tidefans.com/forums/showthread.php?t=65887

I dont care what you want to say about Jess, that was an incredibly fair, maybe overly fair, analysis of the game. I got to give Jess a Huge Gonad Award. Jess, Real Respect for writing this.

Auburn preview: Tigers, Tide limp into rivalry match

By Jess Nicholas

TideFans.com Editor-in-Chief

Nov. 19, 2007

This game is typically billed as a clash of titans, but the 2007 Alabama-Auburn game threatens to be a snorefest.

Neither team is coming into the game with any kind of forward momentum. Auburn was blown out by Georgia 45-20 in its most recent game, and then the team took a week off to lick their wounds and listen to the rumor mill about the future of their head coach.

Alabama, meanwhile, suffered the single most embarrassing loss in at least the program’s last 50 years. One would have to go back to a time before television, almost, to find a more deplorable loss than the 21-14 defeat suffered at the hands of Louisiana-Monroe.

Given the five-year winning streak Auburn currently holds over Alabama, and the Tigers’ much better defense, it would be considered an upset for Alabama to win this game even without factoring in the mental state of the Crimson Tide. Unless Alabama undergoes a swift mental turnaround in the next few days, this game could turn out to be the worst loss to Auburn in quite some time.

OFFENSE

Auburn allegedly runs the West Coast offense, but this season has not produced any of the excitement or magic of previous years. The Tigers are 62nd in rushing offense, 104th in passing offense and 101st in total offense nationally, numbers that also put Auburn among the bottom-feeders in the SEC. Alabama’s offense has regressed in recent weeks, largely due to the suspensions of running back Glen Coffee and offensive linemen Marlon Davis and Antoine Caldwell, but with those players back, hopefully the offense will look more like it did in the first part of the year. In recent weeks, Alabama has based almost exclusively out of a two-TE set, or a three-wide, one-back set. Auburn’s offense is based more on the run while Alabama’s has been leaning towards the pass.

QUARTERBACKS

Talk about watching a couple of mules fighting over a carrot. Alabama’s John Parker Wilson has much better stats than does Auburn’s Brandon Cox, but the fact is neither player has come remotely close to the lofty heights predicted for them prior to the season. Wilson has thrown for 2,477 yards, 15 touchdowns and 10 interceptions, compared to Cox’s 1,752 yards, 9 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, but Cox completes a higher percentage of his passes. In their most recent performances, Wilson had an average day against a poor secondary, while Cox had a horrific day against a good Georgia secondary. As for depth, Auburn’s Kodi Burns plays quite a bit in a special package that mimics the freshman package Florida used for Tim Tebow, except Burns isn’t nearly as effective. He’s an above-average runner but a very raw, typically ineffective passer at the moment. Still, he has tons more experience than does Alabama’s Greg McElroy, who has played in only two games and hasn’t thrown a pass since Labor Day weekend. Give Auburn the advantage due to Cox’s history of being relatively effective in prior Alabama-Auburn games. Advantage: Auburn

RUNNING BACKS

This one would be a clear Auburn advantage except for the fact the Tide gets Glen Coffee back. Coffee changes the complection of the Alabama backfield immensely, as he brings a powerful running style that allows Alabama to go between the tackles more often. Coffee had carried 90 times for 413 yards (4.6 avg.) and 4 touchdowns prior to being suspended during Tennessee week. He’s tough to bring down but did have some problems with turnovers against Ole Miss, his last game action. Along with Coffee, Alabama has Terry Grant, who despite his problems running inside will probably eclipse the 1,000-yard mark if Alabama makes it to a bowl game. Grant has rushed 180 times for 891 yards (5.0 avg.) and 8 touchdowns. Scatback Jonathan Lowe, bruiser Jimmy Johns and Roy Upchurch provide good depth, but Lowe and Johns have limited value due to their respective sizes and speeds.

As for Auburn, the Tigers have an effective one-two punch in Brad Lester (89 carries, 375 yards, 4.2 avg., 3 TD in 5 games) and Ben Tate (177 carries, 779 yards, 4.4 avg., 6 TD). Tate is a bruiser without a lot of moves, while Lester is a nice mix of power and speed. Mario Fannin (81 carries, 430 yards, 5.3 avg., 5 TD) probably has as much or more talent than Lester, but ball security is an issue.

At fullback, Alabama has Baron Huber, who is a blocker only, and who hasn’t played much since the Tide went to an Ace look with the offense. Auburn, on the other hand, has Carl Stewart, who is an important fixture in the running and passing games. Huber is probably the better blocker, but Stewart can hurt opponents in several ways and doesn’t need to come off the field in anything but very long-yardage situations. Coffee’s return closes this category up a great deal, but Auburn has equal depth and its featured backs can run inside or outside. Advantage: Auburn

WIDE RECEIVERS

Auburn has struggled all year in this category and still doesn’t have enough answers. Only Rodgeriqus Smith has proven to be even close to reliable, catching 45 passes for 614 yards (13.6 avg.) and 5 touchdowns, and even he lacks the ability to be consistently dangerous. Montez Billings has emerged as a decent second option (24 catches, 293 yards, 12.2 avg., 1 TD), but he can be contained by a good cornerback. Robert Dunn and Prechae Rodriguez provide depth, and while both have had their moments, both have also disappeared for long stretches. Auburn will use its running backs in the pattern and also utilize its three-headed tight end combo (Cole Bennett, Tommy Trott, Gabe McKenzie).

Alabama counters with a group led by D.J. Hall, who is in pursuit of his second consecutive 1,000-yard receiving season. Hall would need 82 yards in this game to get it. Mike McCoy and Matt Caddell will get most of the snaps opposite Hall, with Keith Brown, Nikita Stover, Will Oakley and Earl Alexander providing depth off the bench. Nick Walker and Travis McCall continue to split the tight end duties, with occasional contributions from Preston Dial. Alabama has had some consistency issues with its second-line players, but nothing like what Auburn has endured. Advantage: Alabama

OFFENSIVE LINE

If one were to compare Auburn’s current offensive line with the Alabama line that played against Tennessee, LSU, Mississippi State and Louisiana-Monroe, the Tigers would easily have the advantage here. But the return of Marlon Davis and Antoine Caldwell changes the complexion of Alabama’s line greatly. Alabama will likely continue to start Evan Cardwell at center, Justin Britt at left guard and Andre Smith at left tackle. Caldwell will start somewhere; he’ll either be with Michael Johnson, Chris Capps and B.J. Stabler playing right guard, or he’ll be at right tackle with Davis, Johnson and Stabler playing right guard. Caldwell was set to start at right tackle prior to being suspended against Tennessee, so that would seem the most likely proposition this time around.

As for Auburn, 2007 has not been the best of times for its line. Tyrone Green and Chaz Ramsey will start at guard, with Lee Ziemba at tackle. The other tackle will be some combination of King Dunlap, Ryan Pugh, Antwoin Daniels and Andrew McCain. Jason Bosley starts at center, and is probably the best player on the line. Pugh and Mike Berry are his backups. Pugh has been slowed by an ankle injury, though, and is listed as questionable for this game.

Auburn has better depth than Alabama. Health is about the same for both. The return of Davis and Caldwell makes Alabama much better than in recent weeks, and closes this gap considerably, almost to the point of it being a draw. Give Auburn a slim edge, though, if for no other reason than the Tigers have been much more effective than Alabama’s line in this series in recent years. Advantage: Auburn

DEFENSE

Auburn operates from a 4-3 look that features a lot of blitzing and an immense amount of speed coming off the corners. It is a defense that has given Alabama fits for most of the last decade. The Tigers are ranked 27th nationally in rushing defense, 13th in pass defense, 18th in pass efficiency defense and 11th in total defense. Scoring defense comes in 7th, putting Auburn in the top four in the conference in all major categories. Alabama counters with its 3-4 base alignment, and the Tide will likely use more 3-4 and 3-1-3 looks than nickel and 4-2-5 alignments due to Auburn’s preference for running the football. Alabama ranks just behind Auburn in the SEC in the major defensive categories except for raw pass defense numbers (54th), which are 9th in the conference. Alabama wants to be more aggressive than its talent lets it be at the moment, however. The Tide was burned several times on blitzes against ULM and doesn’t have the horses right now to play straight-up.

DEFENSIVE LINE

Alabama’s unit is quietly doing a decent job, especially in recent weeks. Alabama held both Mississippi State and ULM to only marginal rushing numbers. The problem has been in the pass rush. Alabama has to bring corners, safeties and linebackers on risky blitzes often in order to supplement a lack of push up front. The notable exception is end Wallace Gilberry, who despite his size is good against both the rush and the pass and can give even above-average offensive tackles a workout. Brandon Deaderick has supplanted Bobby Greenwood at the tackle-end combo position, but both will play. Lorenzo Washington had played very well until the ULM game, when he was often stymied. Brian Motley figures to split time with him against Auburn. Luther Davis and Milton Talbert provide depth outside.

For Auburn, Pat Sims and Josh Thompson have been solid at tackle, and Mike Blanc and Jermarcus Ricks are solid off the bench. Thompson is a run plugger who doesn’t provide much in the pass-rush department, but Sims can create problems in the pocket. On passing downs, Auburn will slide Sen’Derrick Marks over from his end position, and go with Quentin Groves and Antonio Coleman off the corners. Both are feared pass rushers. Groves also plays linebacker. Michael Goggans is a solid backup off the bench. Antoine Carter adds depth.

While Alabama’s unit is decent, and has played better than expected, Auburn has three or four legitimate playmakers and has a solid edge. Advantage: Auburn

LINEBACKERS

When Tray Blackmon came back to the Auburn team following an early-season suspension, it transformed the look of this unit. While Blackmon has no sacks or tackles for losses, he has 2 quarterback hurries and an interception. More importantly, he has allowed Craig Stevens, Chris Evans and Merrill Johnson to not be tasked with so many responsibilities. Stevens has missed the last two games and is questionable for Alabama, however, with an injured ankle. That puts depth into play, and puts a lot of focus on true freshman Bo Harris. Courtney Harden adds depth. Quentin Groves will play here at times, but he’s better overall when he’s at end and not linebacker.

For Alabama, the last few weeks have been difficult. Ezekial Knight has emerged as a star to watch next season, becoming a force against both run and pass from his outside linebacker position. But the same cannot be said for the other three positions. Prince Hall and Darren Mustin start inside, but their play has tailed off over the last month. True freshman Rolando McClain, who started at the beginning of the year, now barely plays. Jack linebacker Keith Saunders was completely neutralized against ULM, and backup Brandon Fanney has not been a factor.

Chavis Williams backs up Knight, while Cory Reamer and Charlie Higgenbotham will likely back up the inside positions with McClain unless Demarcus Waldrop returns from injury. While Auburn doesn’t have the playmakers of recent years, the Tigers make more plays with its linebackers than does Alabama. Advantage: Auburn

DEFENSIVE BACKS

Even though Auburn has put up better pass defense numbers than Alabama, it’s mostly due to the prowess of the Tigers’ front seven. Except for cornerback Jerraud Powers, Auburn lacks a true playmaker in its secondary. Zac Etheridge, Eric Brock and Aairon Savage split time at safety, and while all are solid, none stand out. The trio is susceptible to the big play. Mike McNeil provides depth. At corner along with Powers is the steady Patrick Lee. Lee and Powers have combined for 7 interceptions in 2007. Jonathan Wilhite and Walter McFadden provide depth; Wilhite is the better player.

For Alabama, cornerbacks Kareem Jackson and Simeon Castille can turn a game around, but Castille had a rough game against Louisiana-Monroe. His best position is to be a nickel safety, but reserve cornerback Lionel Mitchell has tanked in the second half of the season and Castille has been asked to play corner more often than not. With Marquis Johnson returning from suspension, Alabama might be able to work Castille more at safety. Something will have to happen, because Javier Arenas won’t be available at nickel or dime back. At safety, Rashad Johnson is asserting himself as one of the best in the conference, and will certainly be the best defensive back on the field in this game. His counterpart, however, senior Marcus Carter, is a non-factor in most games. Ali Sharrief will back both of them up. With Arenas out, Tyrone King Jr., Chris Rogers and Sam Burnthall might be in the mix, but only King has any notable playing time in the secondary. This one is actually a close call despite Auburn’s statistical advantage. Give the Tigers the edge based on better health. Advantage: Auburn

SPECIAL TEAMS

If Javier Arenas was 100 percent, this one would probably be an Alabama edge. But with Arenas suffering from a high ankle sprain, the Tigers take this category soundly. Placekicking is a push, with Alabama’s Leigh Tiffin and Auburn’s Wes Byrum both proving they can kick at critical moments. Punting is a big Auburn advantage; both Ryan Shoemaker and Patrick Tatum have proven to be above-average punters in the SEC, and the Tigers lead the nation in net punting, a testament to their coverage units. The Tigers are decent in punt returns but are among the worst in the nation in kickoff returns. For Alabama, if Arenas is out, Jonathan Lowe will handle the job. He’s above-average in both kick and punt returns, but lacks Arenas’ size and a lot of his escapability. He’s also more likely to put the ball on the ground. Matt Caddell will likely be back on kickoff returns with Lowe. Robert Dunn returns punts and Mario Fannin kickoffs for the Tigers. Unless Arenas undergoes a miraculous recovery this week, the Tigers have this one. Advantage: Auburn

OVERALL

Auburn leads in seven categories, Alabama in just one. However, Alabama is within sniffing distance on special teams, and at defensive back, quarterback and offensive line.

The big problem for Alabama, though, is the team’s mental state. Alabama has now lost three games in a row and has regressed to the era of Mike Shula in terms of believing in its own abilities. If Alabama can’t turn it around emotionally this week, Auburn could put up a score that would be embarrassing in its scope.

However, the Tigers aren’t in the best mental place, either. In addition to the loss to Georgia, there are the rumors of head coach Tommy Tuberville departing to coach any number of schools – Texas A&M, Nebraska, Arkansas – that Auburn players have to think about.

Had Alabama beaten Louisiana-Monroe, the Tide would probably have the mental edge coming into this game, but that’s gone now. Alabama’s only hope is that Nick Saban can present the ULM loss as an “I-told-you-so” lesson and play off his players’ anger.

But that assumes enough players are truly angry. Alabama has tanked too many seasons in the last decade right at the end of the year. Where other teams are gearing up for the postseason, Alabama seems to be unable to bounce back from losses quickly enough.

It also doesn’t help that this game will be on the road. Alabama’s biggest road win of the year came arguably against Vanderbilt in Week 2. In Alabama’s other road games, the Tide lost listlessly to Florida State (technically a neutral-site game, but it was being played in Jacksonville, Fla.), barely beat Ole Miss and needed an official’s review to do it, and fell apathetically, 17-12, at Mississippi State.

For Alabama fans, the Tennessee win was a precious commodity, but a win over Auburn has eluded Alabama for five years and this is as much a must-have game as the Tide has played since the 1999 SEC Championship. Unfortunately, the players haven’t shown they care as much as the fans. A stunning statement, but a true one nonetheless.

Nick Saban will have the fight of the year pushing Alabama over for the win against Auburn. The Tigers have had Alabama’s number recently, and it all stems from the fact that Auburn has been physically and mentally tougher than Alabama – particularly the latter – by several degrees.

If Alabama can somehow rise up in this game as one, the Tide has the talent to beat Auburn. But Auburn doesn’t even have to play its best game against Alabama; the Tigers need just to limit mistakes and wait for Alabama to shoot itself in the foot, if the last month is any indication.

Unfortunately for Alabama, this group of players has not shown that kind of elastic resiliency. Look for Auburn to cruise to win No. 6 in a row.

Auburn 28

Alabama 10__________________

Jess Nicholas

Editor-In-Chief

TideFans.com

[runswithscissors 33]

i think thats a pretty fair assesment of the situation. if we come in with the mindset displayed against TN, i like our chances. if not.....

[WAR-MATT 2]

i think thats a pretty fair assesment of the situation. if we come in with the mindset displayed against TN, i like our chances. if not.....

Lucky for us that CTT is our coach and not Phat Phil. CTT will not give up on the run like the great pumpkin did. You could not stop Foster.......

[TexasTiger 13,053]

Good assessment. Questionable prediction. It assumes Auburn scores 4 TDs and no FGs. I can't imagine a stall or two resulting in FGs.

[TigerStar 0]

Good assessment. Questionable prediction. It assumes Auburn scores 4 TDs and no FGs. I can't imagine a stall or two resulting in FGs.

Maybe he is saying 7 FGs and 1 TD.

[TexasTiger 13,053]

Good assessment. Questionable prediction. It assumes Auburn scores 4 TDs and no FGs. I can't imagine a stall or two resulting in FGs.

Maybe he is saying 7 FGs and 1 TD.

Good point. That's actually feasible.

[runswithscissors 33]

i think thats a pretty fair assesment of the situation. if we come in with the mindset displayed against TN, i like our chances. if not.....

Lucky for us that CTT is our coach and not Phat Phil. CTT will not give up on the run like the great pumpkin did. You could not stop Foster.......

well of course CTT won't give up on the run. he can't. that is what your entire offense is based off of. however, our run defense has vastly improved since the Arky game (i use that game as an example for obvious reasons). CPF could give up on the run because they don't live or die by it. he took his chances and it still didnt accomplish diddly. if you look at the play-by-play, he didn't even give up on the run until the 4th quarter when it was 30-17. then with about 10 minutes left in the 4th it was 38-17. at that point you don't WANT to run the ball really....unless you are Alabama. bottom line is i just don't think you guys are going to be able to go in there and put an Arky type rushing performance on us is all. we held Foster to 91 yards over 3 quarters. until the 4th, there was at least one rush attempt on every drive for TN.

[AU alum 2]

That was basically a very good assessment. I only had a problem with one sentence - "If Alabama can somehow rise up in this game as one, the Tide has the talent to beat Auburn" - no actually, it was a problem with one phrase. I don't think that "talent" will come into it if Bama beats Auburn. I think it will be something like us making a mistake (fumble, pass interception) that would cause it.

[WAR-MATT 2]

i think thats a pretty fair assesment of the situation. if we come in with the mindset displayed against TN, i like our chances. if not.....

Lucky for us that CTT is our coach and not Phat Phil. CTT will not give up on the run like the great pumpkin did. You could not stop Foster.......

well of course CTT won't give up on the run. he can't. that is what your entire offense is based off of. however, our run defense has vastly improved since the Arky game (i use that game as an example for obvious reasons). CPF could give up on the run because they don't live or die by it. he took his chances and it still didnt accomplish diddly. if you look at the play-by-play, he didn't even give up on the run until the 4th quarter when it was 30-17. then with about 10 minutes left in the 4th it was 38-17. at that point you don't WANT to run the ball really....unless you are Alabama. bottom line is i just don't think you guys are going to be able to go in there and put an Arky type rushing performance on us is all. we held Foster to 91 yards over 3 quarters. until the 4th, there was at least one rush attempt on every drive for TN.

Coker and the other flunky got more carries than Foster. Bama's defense was tired of tackling Foster and you could tell. Fulmer's just a dumb-bamaperry....

I'll make a friendly wager with you on if AU will be successful or not running the ball against the Tahd. I got a cute little avatar picked out for you already. I mean you did stop ULM from running up middle. NOT!!!!!!!!

[runswithscissors 33]

i think thats a pretty fair assesment of the situation. if we come in with the mindset displayed against TN, i like our chances. if not.....

Lucky for us that CTT is our coach and not Phat Phil. CTT will not give up on the run like the great pumpkin did. You could not stop Foster.......

well of course CTT won't give up on the run. he can't. that is what your entire offense is based off of. however, our run defense has vastly improved since the Arky game (i use that game as an example for obvious reasons). CPF could give up on the run because they don't live or die by it. he took his chances and it still didnt accomplish diddly. if you look at the play-by-play, he didn't even give up on the run until the 4th quarter when it was 30-17. then with about 10 minutes left in the 4th it was 38-17. at that point you don't WANT to run the ball really....unless you are Alabama. bottom line is i just don't think you guys are going to be able to go in there and put an Arky type rushing performance on us is all. we held Foster to 91 yards over 3 quarters. until the 4th, there was at least one rush attempt on every drive for TN.

Coker and the other flunky got more carries than Foster. Bama's defense was tired of tackling Foster and you could tell. Fulmer's just a dumb-bamaperry....

I'll make a friendly wager with you on if AU will be successful or not running the ball against the Tahd. I got a cute little avatar picked out for you already. I mean you did stop ULM from running up middle. NOT!!!!!!!!

uhhhh....you must be thinking of another game. Foster had 13 carries, Coker 5, and the "flunky" Creer got 1 for no gain. Coker only rushed for 12 yards. i may be an Alabama fan, but i do know that 13>5 and 13>1. TN averages 151 yards per game, so i don't think 103 yards total rushing is that bad. i think an X factor here is will our running game reappear with the return of two starting O-linemen and Coffee? our run offense is slightly better than AU's and our passing offense is significantly better. however AU's total defense is great, with the exception of the UGA game. with the way both teams have gone up and down this season, who really knows what could happen.

as far as a wager, i would be an idiot to wager on anything Iron Bowl related. even though i don't see how we win this one, i think it would be a mojo violation on both sides.

[quietfan 233]

..Unless Alabama undergoes a swift mental turnaround in the next few days...

This is what makes me nervous...there's a tremendous amount of emotional energy swarming around the Tide right now. It seems mostly bad now, but if somehow it all became focused by Saturday it might sweep them to a win. Conversely, if our guys come in overconfident or mentally unprepared, we could embassass ourselves as against Georgia or MSU.

I'm counting on CTT preventing the latter--he seems to have a knack for getting the teams psyched for the Iron Bowl. That might be our biggest advantage:

Head Coach with confidence, smarts, and experience from having "been there, done that": EDGE: AUBURN

[BuckTiger 0]

Very good article!! Alabama is one long pass to DJ or KB from having their collective "mental state" back together. This will not be a blowout instead a typical hard fought close IB. The QB making the fewest mistakes will allow their team to win.