Rasmussen: Clinton 46-44 v McCain, McCain 47-44 v. Obama

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The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows Hillary Clinton with a two-point advantage over John McCain, 46% to 44%. At the same time, McCain has a three-point lead over Barack Obama, 47% to 44% (see recent daily results). Tracking results are updated daily by 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time.

Twenty-four percent (24%) of White Democrats prefer McCain over Obama while 13% pick McCain over Clinton.

Twenty-seven percent (27%) of Democratic Men pick McCain over Obama and 18% choose McCain over Clinton. Fourteen percent (14%) of Republican women select Clinton over McCain while 15% would vote for Obama as the Democratic nominee. White Women prefer Clinton over McCain by four but give McCain an eight point edge over Obama.

Senior citizens prefer McCain over Obama by eighteen percentage points while Clinton is within two points of the Republican. Among voters under 30, Clinton and McCain are essentially even while Obama leads McCain by fourteen. Among unaffiliated voters, McCain leads Clinton by six and Obama by two.

The race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination is now tied. Clinton and Obama are each supported by 45% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters. Last Monday, Obama led by eight (see recent Democratic Nomination results). The ongoing competition between Obama and Clinton may be causing angst for party leaders, but the competition has been good for the Party label. In fact, the Democrats now have the largest partisan advantage over the Republicans since Rasmussen Reports began tracking this data on a monthly basis nearly six years ago.

In Tuesday’s Primaries, Clinton has a narrow lead in Indiana while Obama has the lead in North Carolina. Clinton leads Obama by five points. Looking ahead a few weeks, Obama has a twelve-point lead in Oregon. Rasmussen Markets data shows Obama continues to be the favorite for the Democratic nomination, but expectations have slipped significantly in recent days. Currently, the frontrunner is given a 73.6 % chance of winning.

Among all voters nationwide, McCain is viewed favorably by 52% and unfavorably by 46%. (see recent daily favorable ratings). Obama is now viewed favorably by 50% and unfavorably by 48%. For Clinton, the reviews are 48% favorable, 50% unfavorable. Those numbers reflect the best ratings for Clinton since March 12.

McCain and Obama are each viewed favorably by 55% of unaffiliated voters. Clinton is viewed favorably by 45% of unaffiliateds.

The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral Votes. The GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are added, the Democrats lead 260 to 240 (see summary of recent state-by-state results). Data from Rasmussen Markets gives Democrats a 60.7 % chance of winning in November.

Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The general election sample is currently based upon interviews with 1,600 Likely Voters. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members. See crosstabs for general election match-ups, favorable ratings and Democratic primary.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_con...l_tracking_poll