GOP Senate Massacre of ‘08

[RunInRed 16,492]

I thought political genius Karl Rove formed the permanent Republican majority?

While Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) hangs in there, locked in a tough race with Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.), the Republican undercard is facing obliteration in the 2008 general elections for the Senate. Polling suggests that a massacre may be in the offing — and one that’s possibly even greater than the worst of previous GOP years: 1958, 1964, 1974, 1986 and 2006.

Scott Rasmussen, whose site, www.rasmussenreports.com, follows these races closely, is producing truly hair-raising polling data.

Of the open Republican Senate seats in contention, Democratic victory seems very likely in Virginia (Democratic former Gov. Mark Warner now has 55 percent, while fellow former Republican Gov. Jim Gilmore stands at 37) and New Mexico (where Democratic Rep. Tom Udall takes 53 percent to GOP Rep. Steve Pearce’s 37 and 57 percent to Republican Rep. Heather Wilson’s 36). In Colorado, Democratic Rep. Mark Udall has a narrow lead over Republican Bob Schaffer (45-42). Nebraska would seem safely Republican, but a humongous black turnout in Mississippi could elect former Democratic Gov. Ronnie Musgrove, just as it led to a Democratic congressional victory in a bi-election this month. Score them: two Democrat, one leaning Democrat, one leaning Republican, and one Republican. A net loss of two or three seats.

And then there are the endangered incumbents. Three GOP senators are actually behind their Democratic challengers. Alaska’s Ted Stevens is behind Mark Begich by 47-45. Elizabeth Dole trails Kay Hagan in North Carolina by 48-47. And Jeanne Shaheen is well ahead of John Sununu in New Hampshire, 51-43. Stevens’s legal problems and the likely huge black turnout in North Carolina make all three states lean Democratic at this point.

Even when GOP incumbents lead, they are perilously under 50 percent. In Oregon, as of this writing, Gordon Smith leads Jeff Merkley by only 45-42 and Steve Novick by 47-41. And in Texas, John Cornyn leads Rick Noriega by only 47-43. In addition, Norm Coleman in Minnesota is hanging on by his teeth against Al Franken, 50-43; Susan Collins is only narrowly ahead of Rep. Tom Allen in Maine, 52-42; and in Kansas, Pat Roberts holds only a 52-40 lead over Jim Slattery. Mitch McConnell in Kentucky may also be in trouble.

So, among incumbents, score it three leaning Democratic, two tossups, and three leaning Republican.

Overall, that’s a likely Democratic pickup of five seats, with an eight-seat gain possible, and, in a partisan wipeout, a 12-seat shift.

Mon dieu!

In all likelihood, the filibuster will still remain a theoretical Republican option, but, in practical terms, may be beyond reach, especially if Obama wins the White House.

Driving the GOP’s imperiled Senate situation, or course, is a massive shift in party identification. While the two parties are normally about tied in party ID, the Democrats now enjoy a 44-30 advantage in the latest Fox News poll of April 29.A combination of the Iraq war, gas prices, the credit crisis and a looming recession are dragging down the Republican Party, big time.

So is a president with a 28 percent approval rating. Bush needs to go out and tell America that things are bad, but not that bad. There are solid signs that the economy may not be tanking after all. Unemployment, while rising, is still at historic lows. The credit crisis has not led to a wholesale collapse of the financial industry and the instability appears to be easing. And, in Iraq, we are approaching a more stable situation with lower combat deaths. Bush, who has largely been hunkered down in the White House, needs to hit the trail and move his ratings up into the mid- or high 30s, not an insurmountable challenge.

Will the endangered Republicans recover? Most have prevailed, in the past, by lifting their personal ratings out of possible danger early in the race. But when long-term incumbents find themselves mired in the high 40s or low 50s in vote share, it indicates a massive voter desire for change that is not likely to abate.

In the House, the incredible three Democratic bi-election victories, combined with the retirements of so many Republican incumbents, indicates that the GOP may be facing disaster there as well.

This is not a good year to be a Republican.

http://www.dickmorris.com/blog/2008/05/21/...of-08/#more-341

[WinCrimson 61]

I expect Dems to gain seats in Alaska, Colorado, New Hampshire, and Virginia. North Carolina will be tough and will come down to black turnout in the northeast and college/"Obamacan" turnout in the Research Triangle.

[WinCrimson 61]

Mitch McConnell is in serious trouble in Kentucky while Al Franken is closing the gap on GOP incumbent Norm Coleman in Minnesota.

[autigeremt 6,717]

Al Franken should not be in this race. If he wins, the morality of that part of the country is a disgrace. Not because he's a Dem, but because he's an outlandish freak of a liberal. Over the top and multiply, much like Michael Moore.

[WinCrimson 61]

Al Franken should not be in this race. If he wins, the morality of that part of the country is a disgrace. Not because he's a Dem, but because he's an outlandish freak of a liberal. Over the top and multiply, much like Michael Moore.

Way to suppress a viewpoint through a tired political label, my good man.

[arnaldoabru 11]

Al Franken should not be in this race. If he wins, the morality of that part of the country is a disgrace. Not because he's a Dem, but because he's an outlandish freak of a liberal. Over the top and multiply, much like Michael Moore.

Way to suppress a viewpoint through a tired political label, my good man.

His book Lies, and the Lying Liars that tell them is a really funny book. It also sheds light on people like Hannity and Colter and they way they distort the truth.

[Tigermike 3,055]

Al Franken should not be in this race. If he wins, the morality of that part of the country is a disgrace. Not because he's a Dem, but because he's an outlandish freak of a liberal. Over the top and multiply, much like Michael Moore.

Way to suppress a viewpoint through a tired political label, my good man.

His book Lies, and the Lying Liars that tell them is a really funny book. It also sheds light on people like Hannity and Colter and Al Franken and they way they distort the truth.

Has he paid his taxes yet?

[autigeremt 6,717]

Al Franken should not be in this race. If he wins, the morality of that part of the country is a disgrace. Not because he's a Dem, but because he's an outlandish freak of a liberal. Over the top and multiply, much like Michael Moore.

Way to suppress a viewpoint through a tired political label, my good man.

No Mr. Saban.

Al Franken is truly a disgrace. BTW, you don't see Hannity or Coulter running for political office, now do you? But at least they pay their taxes.

[autigeremt 6,717]

Republican Sen. Norm Coleman holds a seven-point lead over his DFL challenger Al Franken, who appears to have been weakened by his recent tax problems.

A new Star Tribune Minnesota Poll also shows that Mike Ciresi, the DFL trial lawyer who dropped out of the race in March for lack of support from his party's delegates, runs just about as strong against Coleman as Franken does.

Coleman enjoys a commanding 15-point lead over lesser-known Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer, who is facing Franken in next month's DFL endorsing convention.

The telephone survey conducted last week shows Coleman attracting the support of 51 percent of registered voters, compared with 44 percent for Franken. In a hypothetical contest between Coleman and Ciresi, Coleman wins 51 percent to 43 percent. Against Nelson-Pallmeyer, Coleman's edge is 53 percent to 38 percent.

In what has been considered one of the most competitive Senate races in the nation, Coleman still shows some potential vulnerabilities, with a 45 percent overall job approval rating among all Minnesota adults in the poll.

In general, an incumbent seeking reelection who has a job approval rating below 50 percent is considered to be in the danger zone. Some of that appears to be a spillover from the unpopularity of President Bush.

"He seems to just go along with whatever [President] Bush wants," said Green Valley poll respondent Emily Viergutz, a student at Southwest Minnesota State University. "He's just sort of there, going with the flow."

But the DFLers have their own problems. Franken, a former "Saturday Night Live" star known nationally for his satirical attacks against Republicans, goes into the summer with 39 percent of all poll respondents saying they have an unfavorable impression of him. That's higher than the 33 percent who view him favorably.

"I think the country is pretty twisted, but I don't think you're going to get an actor to fix things," said Sean Sullivan, a 39-year-old independent from Maplewood.

[tiger88 934]

The mere fact that franken is running that close tells me that that part of the country needs help badly. Not sure what kind of help or how to deliver it, but they need help.

[Tigermike 3,055]

"I think the country is pretty twisted, but I don't think you're going to get an actor to fix things," said Sean Sullivan, a 39-year-old independent from Maplewood.

The mere fact that franken is running that close tells me that that part of the country needs help badly. Not sure what kind of help or how to deliver it, but they need help.

They did elect Jesse Ventura governor. Not only is he an actor but a 'rassler as well.

[arnaldoabru 11]

Al Franken should not be in this race. If he wins, the morality of that part of the country is a disgrace. Not because he's a Dem, but because he's an outlandish freak of a liberal. Over the top and multiply, much like Michael Moore.

Way to suppress a viewpoint through a tired political label, my good man.

His book Lies, and the Lying Liars that tell them is a really funny book. It also sheds light on people like Hannity and Colter and Al Franken and they way they distort the truth.

Has he paid his taxes yet?

Wesley Snipes paid his.