Opening line for the Iron bowl

[stoic-one 1,552]

http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/odds/las-vegas/

NM

[WJF0004 0]

That sounds about right. Home field advantage (even though we own BDS )

[AUBURNJAC 53]

I hope we beat the ever living snot out of those necktards! I know that it's in Tuscaloosa, but give me a break! Why all the bama love???? I think AU wins 44-27!!!!

WAR DAMN EAGLE! SPANK THE MIDGET!!!!!

[aubiematt 0]

Unnamed sources have told me that Bama's defense is all smoke and mirrors!

[nanatiger 3]

Unnamed sources have told me that Bama's defense is all smoke and mirrors!

[NoOneAUFan 2]

Looking forward to lots of Fairley all over McElroy

[BamaGrad03 0]

Basically a pick em with the 3 points going to the home team. That sounds about right. Not saying thats how it will turn out, just saying that sounds abut right for vegas.

[stoic-one 1,552]

Basically a pick em with the 3 points going to the home team. That sounds about right. Not saying thats how it will turn out, just saying that sounds abut right for vegas.

I was expecting anywhere from -1 to -3, there you have it.

[aubrandon 5]

I am really shocked that the #2 team in the nation is an underdog to a two loss team no matter where the game is played. I figured Auburn would be favored by 2 1/2. I feel we are being disrespected. AGAIN I hope we take them to the woodshed.

[E'Town4Bama 111]

That line is ridiculous. AU should win that game by 10-14 points but I do hope I am wrong. Thats Vegas for you.

[Tigermike 3,078]

Auburn is a 4-point underdog in the game, despite being ranked No. 2 and being 11-0. "Even through we've had a winning record this year, people still expect us to lose," left guard Mike Berry "We still carry that as a chip on our our shoulder." left guard Mike Berry

Hope they do go in there with a chip on their shoulder.

[aubiematt 0]

According to some of the Alabama forums, the Alabama fans are taking this to mean that the world is wanting them to beat Auburn. By beating Auburn, we will be taught a lesson that "Cheaters never win". The whole world will then rejoice that the Cam Newton saga is finally over and no one will care about it anymore. In turn, this will relieve pressure from the NCAA and the SEC, causing them to go lightly on our sentence. Finally, Alabama winning will somehow save Auburn football from the death penalty.

[sam 0]

According to some of the Alabama forums, the Alabama fans are taking this to mean that the world is wanting them to beat Auburn. By beating Auburn, we will be taught a lesson that "Cheaters never win". The whole world will then rejoice that the Cam Newton saga is finally over and no one will care about it anymore. In turn, this will relieve pressure from the NCAA and the SEC, causing them to go lightly on our sentence. Finally, Alabama winning will somehow save Auburn football from the death penalty.

Alot of Alabama fans probably want to lose now that you say that...

[au2004ece 30]

That line is ridiculous. AU should win that game by 10-14 points but I do hope I am wrong. Thats Vegas for you.

That line is a product of how each team has played at home and on the road.

Except for Ole Miss, Auburn played much worse on the road than at home.

Alabama played much better at home than on the road.

In this game, the difference in Tuscaloosa and Auburn being applied to the spread is about 10 points because of the vast difference in the two teams performances at home and on the road.

If Auburn was the home team, Auburn would be favored by 5-7.

[AU alum 2]

That line is ridiculous. AU should win that game by 10-14 points but I do hope I am wrong. Thats Vegas for you.

That line is a product of how each team has played at home and on the road.

Except for Ole Miss, Auburn played much worse on the road than at home.

Alabama played much better at home than on the road.

In this game, the difference in Tuscaloosa and Auburn being applied to the spread is about 10 points because of the vast difference in the two teams performances at home and on the road.

If Auburn was the home team, Auburn would be favored by 5-7.

I guess the perception is that UAT's home field advantage is about equivalent to LSU's. (more than 3 points) Not that I agree, but that is how it's perceived. On a side note, have you noticed how Kirk Herbstreit has changed his tune from the 1st of the season? He used to say how Auburn would beat UAT (that was for about the first 6 games), but has now changed to UAT will beat Auburn. Wonder why?

[quietfan 233]

That line is ridiculous. AU should win that game by 10-14 points but I do hope I am wrong. Thats Vegas for you.

That line is a product of how each team has played at home and on the road.

Except for Ole Miss, Auburn played much worse on the road than at home.Alabama played much better at home than on the road.

In this game, the difference in Tuscaloosa and Auburn being applied to the spread is about 10 points because of the vast difference in the two teams performances at home and on the road.

If Auburn was the home team, Auburn would be favored by 5-7.

Or one could simply argue that Auburn has played much better in the second half of the season than the first: Wins at MSU and Kentucky were during our first six games, Ole Miss in the second six. I think both our offense and our defense have improved since those early games.

But of course, one generally expects teams to play better at home than on the road. One of my concerns is that we just haven't had very many roads trips, period, this year. I don't fear Bryant-Denny Stadium, but I worry about our general lack of travel experience.

Not sure if home field means that much in the Iron Bowl anyway. The Iron Bowl is split 50/50 on home vs away wins in games at Auburn/Tuscaloosa: The home team has won 8 of those sixteen games, the visitor has won eight. Auburn is 5-1 in Tuscaloosa (including 1895), Alabama is 3-7 in Auburn.

I think that's for several reasons: That game is highly emotional for both teams regardless of location; both campuses are an easy drive from anywhere in the state; and while tickets haven't been officially divided 50/50 since Legion Field, it's fairly easy for someone to get a ticket from the other side's allotment due to friends, relatives, acquaintances selling tickets if they can't make the game. It's not a rivalry like Ohio State-Michigan or Texas-Oklahoma where the home team has the support of their whole state around them. (Well, excluding Michigan State, Texas A&M, & Okla State fans.. )

The Iron Bowl is a family affair--vicious, combative, dysfunctional family perhaps, but still family--played on family turf.

[vatz22au 142]

Not sure if home field means that much in the Iron Bowl anyway. The Iron Bowl is split 50/50 on home vs away wins in games at Auburn/Tuscaloosa: The home team has won 8 of those sixteen games, the visitor has won eight. Auburn is 5-1 in Tuscaloosa (including 1895), Alabama is 3-7 in Auburn.

Auburn accounts for 7 of those 8 home team victories. They also account for 5 of the 8 visiting team victories.

I wouldn't put it so general that it's "50/50 on home vs away wins".

[WarTiger 3,928]

That line is ridiculous. AU should win that game by 10-14 points but I do hope I am wrong. Thats Vegas for you.

That line is a product of how each team has played at home and on the road.

Except for Ole Miss, Auburn played much worse on the road than at home.Alabama played much better at home than on the road.

In this game, the difference in Tuscaloosa and Auburn being applied to the spread is about 10 points because of the vast difference in the two teams performances at home and on the road.

If Auburn was the home team, Auburn would be favored by 5-7.

Or one could simply argue that Auburn has played much better in the second half of the season than the first: Wins at MSU and Kentucky were during our first six games, Ole Miss in the second six. I think both our offense and our defense have improved since those early games.

But of course, one generally expects teams to play better at home than on the road. One of my concerns is that we just haven't had very many roads trips, period, this year. I don't fear Bryant-Denny Stadium, but I worry about our general lack of travel experience.

Not sure if home field means that much in the Iron Bowl anyway. The Iron Bowl is split 50/50 on home vs away wins in games at Auburn/Tuscaloosa: The home team has won 8 of those sixteen games, the visitor has won eight. Auburn is 5-1 in Tuscaloosa (including 1895), Alabama is 3-7 in Auburn.I think that's for several reasons: That game is highly emotional for both teams regardless of location; both campuses are an easy drive from anywhere in the state; and while tickets haven't been officially divided 50/50 since Legion Field, it's fairly easy for someone to get a ticket from the other side's allotment due to friends, relatives, acquaintances selling tickets if they can't make the game. It's not a rivalry like Ohio State-Michigan or Texas-Oklahoma where the home team has the support of their whole state around them. (Well, excluding Michigan State, Texas A&M, & Okla State fans.. )

The Iron Bowl is a family affair--vicious, combative, dysfunctional family perhaps, but still family--played on family turf.

Auburn is 6-1 in tuscaloosa. wins in 1895, 1901, 2000, 2002, 2004, 2006 and the lone loss in 2008.

[RunInRed 16,528]

A good take by Will Collier...

I think the line is kind of weird. Alabama just hasn't been a special team this year. Good, sure, but not special. It's a head-scratcher to figure out how a defense that got run over by Marcus Lattimore and Stephen Garcia--to say nothing of Jordan Jefferson and Jarrett Lee--is going to shut down Cam Newton, Mike Dyer, Onterio McCalebb and company. Perhaps more importantly, it's hard to see how UAT would be expected to win the game in the trenches, when they haven't been better than SEC-average (which, granted, is still really, really good on the national level) on either the offensive or defensive line. Anybody who saw what LSU's Drake Nevis did to Bama center William Vlachos has to be shuddering at the thought of what Nick Fairley has in store for Greg McElroy.

Will the home field help? Sure it will. Playing on the road in the SEC is always tough, and especially so when the home team has a senior quarterback. Alabama is going to score some points, particularly through the air. But the rub is, Auburn is going to score, too, and likely more often than the Tide. Gus Malzahn was able to utterly flummox Nick Saban for about two and a half quarters in 2009, and that was playing with an immobile and mildly-injured Chris Todd at quarterback. This time around, Malzahn has the horses to run for sixty minutes, and Auburn's defense has the depth up front and at linebacker to avoid another late-game collapse. Auburn's game plan will be the same one the Tigers have thrived on all year: pour on the offense, especially in the second half, shut down the other guy's run, and force them predictable offensive situations. Alabama fans should recognize that tactic right off the bat--it's the same one they've used for the past three seasons.

For Alabama, the best case would be to do what Auburn did last year, and get a big lead early--although they would be about the fifth team this year to jump up on the Tigers, and the previous four all lost in the end. I think the real question is whether a Tide defense that hasn't been able to get to quarterbacks all year can turn that around, against the top QB in the nation, in this last game. If they can't, or if it comes down to a scoring match, the visitors are going to be a heavy favorite.

http://www.al.com/sports/index.ssf/2010/11/blogger_roundtable_alabama_a_p.html

[Auburnfan91 1,407]

Good article. Here's something I'm wondering right now. When's the last time Auburn was favored when Alabama had the better record?

[BamaGrad03 0]

I think it's funny that you guys always bring up the record in Tuscaloosa. As if a win in 1895 will have any bearing on the game this week.

Answer me this question: Aside from 2002, name one good Bama team Auburn has beaten in Tuscaloosa.

[quietfan 233]

That line is ridiculous. AU should win that game by 10-14 points but I do hope I am wrong. Thats Vegas for you.

That line is a product of how each team has played at home and on the road.

Except for Ole Miss, Auburn played much worse on the road than at home.Alabama played much better at home than on the road.

In this game, the difference in Tuscaloosa and Auburn being applied to the spread is about 10 points because of the vast difference in the two teams performances at home and on the road.

If Auburn was the home team, Auburn would be favored by 5-7.

Or one could simply argue that Auburn has played much better in the second half of the season than the first: Wins at MSU and Kentucky were during our first six games, Ole Miss in the second six. I think both our offense and our defense have improved since those early games.

But of course, one generally expects teams to play better at home than on the road. One of my concerns is that we just haven't had very many roads trips, period, this year. I don't fear Bryant-Denny Stadium, but I worry about our general lack of travel experience.

Not sure if home field means that much in the Iron Bowl anyway. The Iron Bowl is split 50/50 on home vs away wins in games at Auburn/Tuscaloosa: The home team has won 8 of those sixteen games, the visitor has won eight. Auburn is 5-1 in Tuscaloosa (including 1895), Alabama is 3-7 in Auburn.I think that's for several reasons: That game is highly emotional for both teams regardless of location; both campuses are an easy drive from anywhere in the state; and while tickets haven't been officially divided 50/50 since Legion Field, it's fairly easy for someone to get a ticket from the other side's allotment due to friends, relatives, acquaintances selling tickets if they can't make the game. It's not a rivalry like Ohio State-Michigan or Texas-Oklahoma where the home team has the support of their whole state around them. (Well, excluding Michigan State, Texas A&M, & Okla State fans.. )

The Iron Bowl is a family affair--vicious, combative, dysfunctional family perhaps, but still family--played on family turf.

Auburn is 6-1 in tuscaloosa. wins in 1895, 1901, 2000, 2002, 2004, 2006 and the lone loss in 2008.

I overlooked 1901. Thanks! That actually makes the visiting team 9-8 in seventeen games on campus. Much like Auburn/Georgia, based on history alone it's hard to argue for significant home field advantage in this game.

[vatz22au 142]

That line is ridiculous. AU should win that game by 10-14 points but I do hope I am wrong. Thats Vegas for you.

That line is a product of how each team has played at home and on the road.

Except for Ole Miss, Auburn played much worse on the road than at home.Alabama played much better at home than on the road.

In this game, the difference in Tuscaloosa and Auburn being applied to the spread is about 10 points because of the vast difference in the two teams performances at home and on the road.

If Auburn was the home team, Auburn would be favored by 5-7.

Or one could simply argue that Auburn has played much better in the second half of the season than the first: Wins at MSU and Kentucky were during our first six games, Ole Miss in the second six. I think both our offense and our defense have improved since those early games.

But of course, one generally expects teams to play better at home than on the road. One of my concerns is that we just haven't had very many roads trips, period, this year. I don't fear Bryant-Denny Stadium, but I worry about our general lack of travel experience.

Not sure if home field means that much in the Iron Bowl anyway. The Iron Bowl is split 50/50 on home vs away wins in games at Auburn/Tuscaloosa: The home team has won 8 of those sixteen games, the visitor has won eight. Auburn is 5-1 in Tuscaloosa (including 1895), Alabama is 3-7 in Auburn.I think that's for several reasons: That game is highly emotional for both teams regardless of location; both campuses are an easy drive from anywhere in the state; and while tickets haven't been officially divided 50/50 since Legion Field, it's fairly easy for someone to get a ticket from the other side's allotment due to friends, relatives, acquaintances selling tickets if they can't make the game. It's not a rivalry like Ohio State-Michigan or Texas-Oklahoma where the home team has the support of their whole state around them. (Well, excluding Michigan State, Texas A&M, & Okla State fans.. )

The Iron Bowl is a family affair--vicious, combative, dysfunctional family perhaps, but still family--played on family turf.

Auburn is 6-1 in tuscaloosa. wins in 1895, 1901, 2000, 2002, 2004, 2006 and the lone loss in 2008.

I overlooked 1901. Thanks! That actually makes the visiting team 9-8 in seventeen games on campus. Much like Auburn/Georgia, hard to argue for significant home field advantage in this game based on history.

...Again I disagree. We have an excellent record versus Alabama at their home field. Alabama has only beaten Auburn 3 times at Jordan-Hare. The only way your statement is valid is if you just use the Auburn visiting Bryant-Denny scenario. Then yes, it's hard to argue for significant home field advantage.

Whereas Auburn's homefield advantage at Jordan-hare has been dominant.

[AU! 0]

Answer me this question: Aside from 2002, name one good Bama team Auburn has beaten in Tuscaloosa.

In 2006, JPW passed Brodie Croyle for most single season passing yards from an Alabama QB. Also, DJ Hall passed David Palmer for the most single season receiving yards. I'm not going to say that that was a good bama team per se, but you didn't seem to think they were all that bad:

Posted 17 November 2006 - 10:51 AM

Good writeup stat. The only thing i would probably disagree with you is on the secondary. Especially if Brock doesnt play. Simeon Castille leads the SEC in takeaways with 5 ints and 3 fumble recoveries. Ramzee Robinson is as good as DI. And Jeffery Dukes is a solid safety. We will hurt a little since Rashaad Johnson is out hurt, but Marcus Carter started the season as the starter and eventually lost his job to Rashaad, so he has seen action.

I think Darby will have a decent day. I think Lester and Irons will run for a combined 200+ yards. I think this is one of those weird games though where running wont be as important.

Auburn has the better pass rush off the edges. Your DEs get to the QB much better than ours. And we dont do a lot to take advantage of an overpursing defense (see lack of screen passes and draws from the shotgun).

Expect to see at least two jump balls to DJ. He can sky and they like his chances against most DBs. Problem is, if Keith doesnt play...DJ may be surrounded by two or three AU DBs.

AU has a decided advantage in special teams. Our kickoff coverage is poor and I think Tristan will eat up yards on KR. Our punting has been decent...he doesnt boom any 50 yarders but he rarely shanks one for 18. Our field goal kicking is good inside 40 yards. But anything outside of that you can hang it up.

I like our chances against BC if we cover the flats. But we usually get bitten by a TE or RB catching the ball at least twice a game.

Our punt returner - Javier Arenas is special. He can break one at any second. Problem is, our punt return blocking is abysmal. So he will probably get hit as soon as he catches the ball....fyi he has yet to call fair catch this year.

I like Alabama in this one. Motivation factor, home field, better QB, and hopefully some luck.

EDIT: Oh snap! 1,000th post!

[quietfan 233]

I think it's funny that you guys always bring up the record in Tuscaloosa. As if a win in 1895 will have any bearing on the game this week.

Answer me this question: Aside from 2002, name one good Bama team Auburn has beaten in Tuscaloosa.

I have absolutely no problem admitting that a lot of Bama teams have sucked!

But in general, the whole concept of home field advantage comes from the fact that statistically teams generally do have better records on their home fields. Part of that may be because teams also schedule more patsies on their home fields (we don't travel to the Georgia States/Chattanoogas/La Monroe's often!) as well as the usual cited factors like crowd noise, familiar surroundings, travel fatigue, etc. But the history of the campus Iron Bowls has been that the visiting team has a one game edge in the stats. That's all.

Personally, I think history--an 1895 game, MNC's claimed from pre-WWII, who was on scholarship restrictions 7-8 years ago, etc--will have little or no impact on Friday's game.