Auburn passing notes

[StatTiger 3,188]

During the seven seasons associated with the Gus Malzahn offense...

* Auburn has won 76% of their games when the Tigers attempted more passes on 1st down than 3rd down.

* Auburn has won 67% of their games when they did not have more pass attempts on 1st down than 3rd down.

* Auburn has attempted more passes on 1st down than 3rd down in only 35.5% of their games under Malzahn's offense.

* During the games with more pass attempts on 1st down than 3rd down, Auburn had an overall pass rating of 161.2. During the games they did not, the Tigers had an overall pass rating of 135.4. This also included a 25% drop off in scoring when Auburn failed to have more pass attempts on 1st down than 3rd down.

* Auburn has won 81% of their games with an average of at least 7.5 yards per pass attempt on 1st down.

* Auburn has won 84% of their games with an average of at least 7.5 yards per pass attempt on 1st down and at least 7 pass attempts on 1st down during a game.

* Auburn has an average pass rating of 145.3 on 3rd down during games the pass offense had a rating of at least 150.0 on 1st down.

* Auburn has an average pass rating of 124.8 on 3rd down during games the pass offense had a rating of less than 150.0 on 1st down.

[AUpreacherman22 3,888]

Thanks as always Stat. 

Someone quickly get these numbers up to Chip's office!

[Beaker 2,457]

I bet a DC hates to see a pass on 1st down if the game is close or if they are trailing....great stuff.  Thanks for sharing.

[oracle79 3,569]

@StatTiger nice breakdown.  Can you tell from your stats if YPA or YPC on 1st down make any sort of difference?  There's a big difference in throwing a WR screen or swing pass to a back at the LOS versus pushing the ball up the field with intermediate and long pass attempts.  A lot of times, it seems to me that even when we do throw on 1st down were doing the short type of throws within 6 or 7 yards of the LOS.

[AUpreacherman22 3,888]

18 hours ago, StatTiger said:

* Auburn has won 81% of their games with an average of at least 7.5 yards per pass attempt on 1st down.

Yes, @oracle79   These stats help tell that story.  Also those passer rating stars factor in YPA/C as well as Comp. %, TDs, etc. 

 

18 hours ago, StatTiger said:

Auburn has won 84% of their games with an average of at least 7.5 yards per pass attempt on 1st down and at least 7 pass attempts on 1st down during a game.

 

[StatTiger 3,188]

8 hours ago, oracle79 said:

@StatTiger nice breakdown.  Can you tell from your stats if YPA or YPC on 1st down make any sort of difference?  There's a big difference in throwing a WR screen or swing pass to a back at the LOS versus pushing the ball up the field with intermediate and long pass attempts.  A lot of times, it seems to me that even when we do throw on 1st down were doing the short type of throws within 6 or 7 yards of the LOS.

The NCAA utilizes yards per attempt, but examining yards per completion is something to monitor too. Tracking YPA for nearly 25 years, the goal should be 8.0 YPA on 1st down which would require a good mix of vertical passes.

[GwillMac6 20,692]

as ALWAYS great stuff!!! 

[lionheartkc 6,150]

I wonder, @StatTiger, if this isn't one of those situations where the numbers are pretty uniform across the board, for all teams.  When you pass most often on third down, you are basically giving the defense your playbook, as they are always going to defend the pass on third and greater than 3, which is going to make it statistically less successful.

[RunInRed 16,438]

You know we're getting closer when @StatTiger starts pumping these facts out ...

[McLoofus 35,182]

31 minutes ago, RunInRed said:

You know we're getting closer when @StatTiger starts pumping these facts out ...

Lol, had the same thought. 

[StatTiger 3,188]

Good news is that Ohio State, Oregon and Baylor have shown you can field a top-10 rushing attack and still throw the ball at least 35% of the time on first down.

 

During his three seasons as an OC, Lindsey was the primary play-caller during 2015 and 2016. During those two seasons his offense ran the ball 60.3% of the time on 1st down in 2015 and 59.5% of the time during 2016. If this trend continues at Auburn, we should see a 67% increase in passing on 1st down. During the past two seasons, his offense has thrown 23 TD passes on 1st down compared to the 6 thrown by Auburn.

[Beaker 2,457]

4 hours ago, StatTiger said:

During his three seasons as an OC, Lindsey was the primary play-caller during 2015 and 2016. During those two seasons his offense ran the ball 60.3% of the time on 1st down in 2015 and 59.5% of the time during 2016. If this trend continues at Auburn, we should see a 67% increase in passing on 1st down. During the past two seasons, his offense has thrown 23 TD passes on 1st down compared to the 6 thrown by Auburn.

Talk about breaking our current tendency on 1st down!   I guess I mean 1st down with each new possession.  Either way, I smell fresh air.

 

Thank-you kindly for that cleansing breath.

[AUpreacherman22 3,888]

Yep. Every defense in the country knew when AU got a first down, we were gonna run up to the line of scrimmage, snap it quickly, and run straight up the gut in hopes of surprising the opposing D. Hahaha!

Not any more!!!

[boomstick 1,315]

@StatTiger how do these stats look Power 5 vs non-Power 5 schools? In the first stat you posted, is that 76% of the 33 games it covers against a majority of tougher or weaker competition? My concern recently with Gus has been he's ok opening up the offense against weaker teams while playing more conservatively against stronger competition. My perception is he believes he can win even with a mistake or two against a lesser team but is overly concerned with QB mistakes against equal or stronger opponents.

[Beaker 2,457]

3 minutes ago, boomstick said:

My perception is Gus  believes he can win even with a mistake or two against a lesser team but is overly concerned with QB mistakes against equal or stronger opponents.

Dude - you hit the nail on the head!  I have thought the same.  

[boomstick 1,315]

3 minutes ago, Beaker said:

Dude - you hit the nail on the head!  I have thought the same.  

I guess the caveat to that statement is "if he doesn't have a QB he trusts." With Cam and Nick (and to an extent Chris Todd), he never seemed worried about dialing up whatever was necessary to get a first down. With QBs he didn't trust, we seemed to play more ball-control, possession offense with fewer passes thus fewer chances for QB mistakes in the passing game.

[McLoofus 35,182]

24 minutes ago, boomstick said:

I guess the caveat to that statement is "if he doesn't have a QB he trusts." With Cam and Nick (and to an extent Chris Todd), he never seemed worried about dialing up whatever was necessary to get a first down. With QBs he didn't trust, we seemed to play more ball-control, possession offense with fewer passes thus fewer chances for QB mistakes in the passing game.

This is what makes me so mad about the Clemson game last year. He had the horses to win that game but he didn't trust them to do it. 

I really think 2015 and JJ did a number on him. If we get some quality wins this season, he might get some swagger back. 

[StatTiger 3,188]

On 7/6/2017 at 3:45 PM, boomstick said:

@StatTiger how do these stats look Power 5 vs non-Power 5 schools? In the first stat you posted, is that 76% of the 33 games it covers against a majority of tougher or weaker competition? My concern recently with Gus has been he's ok opening up the offense against weaker teams while playing more conservatively against stronger competition. My perception is he believes he can win even with a mistake or two against a lesser team but is overly concerned with QB mistakes against equal or stronger opponents.

In reality, he runs the ball even more 84% on first down against weaker SEC teams than the stronger opponents.