How does the war in Ukraine end?

[icanthearyou 4,463]

On 8/6/2023 at 12:01 PM, I_M4_AU said:

Not mine either, but we have little to do with that decision other than voting Biden out of office.

So you blame Biden for signing the "Chips Bill"???

 

[auburnatl1 4,940]

30 minutes ago, AuburnNTexas said:

I agree.  I think the mistake was made at the beginning before the Russians were entrenched. After Ukraine initially stalled the Russian offensive with small arms ammunition SAM type missiles and anti-tank type missiles combined with very poor planning from the Russians. We meaning US and Allies had the opportunity to provide type of weapons quickly to allow Ukraine to go on the offensive, long range missiles, attack helicopters, rtc. While immediately start training on our modern jets so we could provide that early on. If they had that when they started the 1st offensive where they took back a lot of territory in the North East and Kherson they could have taken most of the territory and Bahkmut would never have been taken. 

Because of it being new weapon systems you couldn't give everything up front as training was needed but enough support as the 1st offensive took off there would have been much larger gains.   It would not have changed everything  but would have put Ukraine in a much stronger position.  

I understand why we were hesitant to do that as there was a risk with Putin and Russia using field nuclear weapons in Ukraine. It was a legitimate concern.  Hindsight is wonderful as we have seen as we keep giving them better weapons Russia has not used Nuclear weapons so we could have given them things earlier.

At this point you are correct dug in positions without air superiority is costly both in equipment and more importantly in man power.  If we do decide to continue supporting Ukraine long run it would have to include the Jets and training they have requested and Ukraine should dig in and protect what they have until that can have a new offensive at end of the next spring.  Also with the Jets and long range missiles Ukraine would be much more effective in attacking the logistics that are needed to fight trench warfare which requires huge amounts of ammunition, missiles, fuel,  food, etc.  

Western weapons like artillery, long range missiles have allowed Ukraine to be more precise in taking out Russian artillery and missile systems. The Ukrainians also have changed the way war is fought with Drone technology both air and sea.  They are working on new technology in underwater Drone technology and have been working on a new more agile submarine that they have been developing in UAE that has showed promise in being able to put Russian shipping at risk at least in the Black Sea.  

If Ukraine keeps attacking Bridges, Refineries, and find a way to attack shipping and pipelines it could cripple the Russian economy.  You are starting to see Ukraine attacking the type of infrastructure that could cripple the Russian economy which has already been weakened via the West's sanctions. 

Imo the only thing that ends a war like this is running out of guys or ammo. And Putin can not have the appearance of losing or he’s a dead man. It’s hard for me to visualize Ukraine achieving its full goals because to Putin this is now existential.

[TexasTiger 12,922]

41 minutes ago, auburnatl1 said:

Imo the only thing that ends a war like this is running out of guys or ammo. And Putin can not have the appearance of losing or he’s a dead man. It’s hard for me to visualize Ukraine achieving its full goals because to Putin this is now existential.

Putin could claim some victory with an armistice where land is now. Some hardliners won’t like it, but he controls a great deal of the spin. 

[homersapien 11,382]

On 8/7/2023 at 2:38 PM, auburnatl1 said:

Imo the only thing that ends a war like this is running out of guys or ammo. And Putin can not have the appearance of losing or he’s a dead man. It’s hard for me to visualize Ukraine achieving its full goals because to Putin this is now existential.

Correct.  But it's also hard to visualize how Russia absorbs and occupies the whole of Ukraine while keeping the peace. 

Let's hope this does precipitate the ouster of Putin.

[homersapien 11,382]

On 8/7/2023 at 2:32 PM, icanthearyou said:

So you blame Biden for signing the "Chips Bill"???

 

Of course he does.  Why ask?

[icanthearyou 4,463]

3 hours ago, homersapien said:

Of course he does.  Why ask?

Yes, I know.  Biden is on the "wrong team".

[AUApostle 7,651]

[TexasTiger 12,922]

Ukraine’s negotiating position has weakened. Putin’s has strengthened. Don’t know if they can agree to anything, but it increasingly looks like either Ukraine makes undesirable concessions, as unjust as that may be, or continues to see its position erode.