How does the war in Ukraine end?

[TexasTiger 12,920]

I’ve been very supportive of Ukraine’s fight against Russia’s obscenely violent aggression. I’m also sympathetic to the position that Russia shouldn’t benefit in any way from their efforts. But there’s a difficult reality here that Ukraine totally relies on funding and weapons from other countries to continue this war. And while they have indicated they’d never concede an inch of territory and may have will to fight indefinitely, this approach is only sustainable with support from those who their leadership totally, and often disrespectfully, dismiss when they suggest any attempt at resolution short of total capitulation by Russia. As much as I’d love to see that, victory may need to be defined differently.

Musk’s Twitter poll was inane and shows his poor suitability to deal with complex global issues. But the official Ukrainian response (F-*# Off) was no better. Now Musk is indicating his company can’t support Starlink indefinitely:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/10/14/ukraine-elon-musk-starlink-ambassador-andrij-melnyk/
 

Similarly, western countries sending support will eventually likely succumb to political pressure if Ukraine is insistent on total victory even if it takes years, as morally ideal as that may be.

Thoughts?

[I_M4_AU 7,850]

Did we get into this with no way out?  Was there ever a plan other than sanctions on Russia?  Is this another Afghanistan?  Do we actually have leadership?

We are just along for the ride.  Things will reach a head this winter and that is the winter in Europe, not here.  America can sit back, but European countries are under the clock and they will determine how long this lasts.

[TexasTiger 12,920]

15 minutes ago, I_M4_AU said:

Did we get into this with no way out?  Was there ever a plan other than sanctions on Russia?  Is this another Afghanistan?  Do we actually have leadership?

We are just along for the ride.  Things will reach a head this winter and that is the winter in Europe, not here.  America can sit back, but European countries are under the clock and they will determine how long this lasts.

To be fair, you see a struggling democracy being overrun by a tyrannical dictator there’s not time to plan out a strategy, but it’s not Afghanistan by a long shot. We’re not physically fighting it or trying to change an ancient culture. We support their right to be free, and Putin’s weakness has been exposed. The West’s moves were always going to be a reaction to Putin’s. But realistically, I don’t see how Ukraine gets everything it wants in a resolution. If not, what resolution makes sense? 

[CoffeeTiger 5,111]

I think it's smart for Ukraine to be defiant and aggressive while they still have the momentum. 

Russia started this whole mess, and now that it's not going well for them people are starting to want and encourage Ukraine to give up because they're afraid of what Russia might do in desperation. 

Is this where we are now? Nuclear armed countries can invade whoever they want and do whatever they want because stopping them is just too dangerous? 

 

Why does America even spend so much money on our military and armed forces if we aren't willing to use those resources to support other democracies being illegally invaded? Would it not costs the United State more in the long run to not support Ukraine and let Russia/Putin continue to try and bring the whole USSR gang back together for Round 2? 

 

I wont get into Elon musk other than to say he is generally an idiot on anything that's not engineering related. Yes, His company has given some discounts and benefits to Ukraine, but the United States has been sharing the costs the entire time and Musk sent a notice back in September to the Defense department (long before his idiotic tweets), that he was going to soon make the US bare the full costs of the Starlink system soon.  

 

[TexasTiger 12,920]

11 minutes ago, CoffeeTiger said:

I think it's smart for Ukraine to be defiant and aggressive while they still have the momentum. 

Russia started this whole mess, and now that it's not going well for them people are starting to want and encourage Ukraine to give up because they're afraid of what Russia might do in desperation. 

Is this where we are now? Nuclear armed countries can invade whoever they want and do whatever they want because stopping them is just too dangerous? 

 

Why does America even spend so much money on our military and armed forces if we aren't willing to use those resources to support other democracies being illegally invaded? Would it not costs the United State more in the long run to not support Ukraine and let Russia/Putin continue to try and bring the whole USSR gang back together for Round 2? 

 

I wont get into Elon musk other than to say he is generally an idiot on anything that's not engineering related. Yes, His company has given some discounts and benefits to Ukraine, but the United States has been sharing the costs the entire time and Musk sent a notice back in September to the Defense department (long before his idiotic tweets), that he was going to soon make the US bare the full costs of the Starlink system soon.  

 

Don’t disagree so much with an aggressive & defiant public posture if it’s part of a negotiating strategy. But they are totally dependent on other countries to maintain it which means it’s out of their ultimate control and privately I hope they grasp that. There’s a point where outside support will tire & then their negotiating posture worsens.

[CoffeeTiger 5,111]

1 minute ago, TexasTiger said:

Don’t disagree so much with an aggressive & defiant public posture if it’s part of a negotiating strategy. But they are totally dependent on other countries to maintain it which means it’s out of their ultimate control and privately I hope they grasp that. There’s a point where outside support will tire & then their negotiating posture worsens.

 

That may be true, I just don't think there is any point in them publicly acknowledging any of that right now.  And I don't know that they have a strong negotiating position right now. Is there any indication that Russia would accept any peace that doesn't include Ukrainian surrender/reparations and giving up full control of the Eastern annexed regions legally to Russia? 

Russia may agree to a ceasefire, but only so they can buildup their troop levels and supplies for a renewed invasion later when Ukraine no longer has the initiative. 

 

When the war first started many experts and non experts alike predicted Ukraine would be ran over like a wet cardboard box and would have never predicted that Ukraine would hold out for 8 months much less make some battlefield gains. 

I don't think its a given that Western support for Ukraine will evaporate during winter. Russia is also facing more and more internal pressure and side effects from the War. 

 

 

 

[I_M4_AU 7,850]

13 minutes ago, TexasTiger said:

To be fair, you see a struggling democracy being overrun by a tyrannical dictator there’s not time to plan out a strategy, but it’s not Afghanistan by a long shot. We’re not physically fighting it or trying to change an ancient culture. We support their right to be free, and Putin’s weakness has been exposed. The West’s moves were always going to be a reaction to Putin’s. But realistically, I don’t see how Ukraine gets everything it wants in a resolution. If not, what resolution makes sense? 

The Russians were building up troops on the border of Ukraine for months before the invasion.  Everybody and their brother knew Putin was going to invade.  Did anybody even talk to Ukraine to see a way out of it or was it a foregone conclusion?  Has there been any body looking an an exit plan as this conflict has progressed?

The comparison to Afghanistan is that after the initial attack and it didn’t end in a way that was anticipated we are still there with no exit plan.  Not necessarily that we have boots on the ground.

In a proxy war we are not the ones that makes decisions as to what resolutions makes since.  The only thing America can do is, at some point, withdraw support and force Ukraine to make up their minds.  That wouldn’t be a good look.  In the mean time, we give Ukraine billions of dollars to fight a war that can not be won, a lot like Afghanistan.

At what point do you allow Putin decide to use nukes?  Its Russia’s ace in the hole and we have shown we will do anything (I mean anything) to avoid that, as we should, but that is where we are.

[TexasTiger 12,920]

18 minutes ago, I_M4_AU said:

The Russians were building up troops on the border of Ukraine for months before the invasion.  Everybody and their brother knew Putin was going to invade.  Did anybody even talk to Ukraine to see a way out of it or was it a foregone conclusion?  Has there been any body looking an an exit plan as this conflict has progressed?

The comparison to Afghanistan is that after the initial attack and it didn’t end in a way that was anticipated we are still there with no exit plan.  Not necessarily that we have boots on the ground.

In a proxy war we are not the ones that makes decisions as to what resolutions makes since.  The only thing America can do is, at some point, withdraw support and force Ukraine to make up their minds.  That wouldn’t be a good look.  In the mean time, we give Ukraine billions of dollars to fight a war that can not be won, a lot like Afghanistan.

At what point do you allow Putin decide to use nukes?  Its Russia’s ace in the hole and we have shown we will do anything (I mean anything) to avoid that, as we should, but that is where we are.

Actually, Biden warned Putin would invade, but Europe nor Ukraine believed it:

https://www.businessinsider.com/europe-didnt-believe-russia-would-invade-ukraine-despite-us-warnings-2022-10?amp

https://kyivindependent.com/uncategorized/zelenskys-chief-of-staff-we-didnt-believe-russia-would-invade-ukraine-until-very-last

[AuburnNTexas 7,150]

Ukraine did negotiate with Putin before the attack they even said they would not join NATO which Putin gave as one of the big reasons for the invasion. At this point Ukraine needs to continue fighting and recover all the territory that Russia captured from February on.  Hopefully that can recover Kherson before Winter makes it very difficult to attack and they make more gains in the North East.  Once Winter hits we will find out how much Europe is really willing to do when the ability and cost of energy will impact them even worse then now.

Europe now realizes that their reliance on Russian energy (Oil and Natural Gas) puts them behind the 8 Ball. This has been a wake up call for them. I believe they will stay strong through this coming winter but I am not sure how long support will last if by next winter they have not shored up their energy resources. 

I could see Ukraine taking back Crimea as that would be very hard for Russia to supply if Ukraine recover land that was lost after the February attack. Then negotiate with Russia on the are that Russia had before February.

Russia conventional army has been degraded badly and with sanctions it will be very difficult for Russia to build it back up logistically. At this point Ukraine should not negotiate but once in a better position it would be wise to think about negotiating as at some point the will of the world could change. 

[I_M4_AU 7,850]

5 minutes ago, TexasTiger said:

Actually, Biden warned Putin would invade, but Europe nor Ukraine believed it:

https://www.businessinsider.com/europe-didnt-believe-russia-would-invade-ukraine-despite-us-warnings-2022-10?amp

https://kyivindependent.com/uncategorized/zelenskys-chief-of-staff-we-didnt-believe-russia-would-invade-ukraine-until-very-last

So, he did not support his warnings with any substantial threats before the invasion.  He just sat back and let is happen.  You can lead a horse to water and all that, but Biden knew and he couldn’t convince his allies of his beliefs.  Leadership.

Now he can say; *see I told you so*.  Doesn’t help, does it.

[TexasTiger 12,920]

2 minutes ago, I_M4_AU said:

So, he did not support his warnings with any substantial threats before the invasion.  He just sat back and let is happen.  You can lead a horse to water and all that, but Biden knew and he couldn’t convince his allies of his beliefs.  Leadership.

Now he can say; *see I told you so*.  Doesn’t help, does it.

It’s pathological to blame Biden for everything others won’t do. But you be you. I’m trying to have a reasonable conversation here and you’re clearly not up for it.

[I_M4_AU 7,850]

13 minutes ago, TexasTiger said:

It’s pathological to blame Biden for everything others won’t do. But you be you. I’m trying to have a reasonable conversation here and you’re clearly not up for it.

Ok, where’s our off ramp?  What can be done to get out of this mess?  Who is going to be the leader to lead us out?  Zelenskyy and Putin are in the drive’s seat.  Who can influence them and by what means?

[TexasTiger 12,920]

17 minutes ago, I_M4_AU said:

Ok, where’s our off ramp?  What can be done to get out of this mess?  Who is going to be the leader to lead us out?  Zelenskyy and Putin are in the drive’s seat.  Who can influence them and by what means?

There will need to be general alignment with US & European Allies to persuade Ukraine. I’m sure Biden plays a big role there as he has already. Europeans have been slow to see threats in recent decades, but they do now.
 

Putin’s tougher. China may end up nudging him toward a resolution. Internal politics may be his biggest hurdle. 

[Tigermike 3,031]

It will continue about like it is now but that will change when winter comes and Putin shuts off the oil to Europe.    What happens then?

[I_M4_AU 7,850]

41 minutes ago, TexasTiger said:

Putin’s tougher. China may end up nudging him toward a resolution. Internal politics may be his biggest hurdle. 

The first part of your statement I agree with.  The quoted passage; I wonder if China wants to see how far Putin can press the US and their allies into a weakened stance.  Saudi Arabia isn’t helping.

[Leftfield 2,604]

Not being privy to all the information, of course, it's difficult to say, but in general there's no reason for Ukraine to negotiate right now when they are on the offensive and everything seems to be turning against Russia. Winter will of course make things more difficult, but it will be worse for Russian troops because they are further from re-supply and poorly organized. In addition, most expect that the heavy sanctions will finally start to have a major impact in the next few months, since the measures Putin has used to prop up the Russian economy can only last so long.

To me it seems to be a race between the will of the nations that back Ukraine to keep supporting them versus Russian political upheaval due to a collapsing economy and world outrage against them. Could the political unrest reach a level that Putin could actually be ousted? And if so, would we be trading one devil for another? There's no guarantee the next person wouldn't insist on keeping the territory Russia now claims, even if they abandon further military activity.

I don't think any of us have an idea as to how the people of the European countries will react this winter if the energy situation becomes dire. With the two nations joining NATO there does seem to be an overwhelming amount of support against Russia, but when push comes to shove we just don't know.

Just my opinion, but I believe that even if the bulk of Europe pulls out over the winter, we should continue to support Ukraine. Ride it out until Spring when the pressure on energy sources eases. Re-evaluate whether Europe will be able to find new sources and stockpile over the warm months, as well as Putin's political situation.

The thing that worries me most is that over the winter there will be no better time for China, if they're ever going to do it, to attempt to take Taiwan. 

 

Edited October 14, 2022 by Leftfield

[DKW 86 7,425]

Get the UN to negotiate a deal where both sides can claim a win. If I were Zelensky, I would have to tell myself that no one wins a nuke exchange. 
 

Question: what does Russia target? Just Ukraine? U & the EU? Let’s say Putin decides to throw 1-3-5 nukes. By the time we get to 5 he is aiming at NATO. Then what? Does NATO fire back with TAC-Nukes? Then do we calm down or escalate? Somebody in Russia with a pistol could do the world a lot of favors and save 100Ks of lives. 

Edited October 14, 2022 by DKW 86

[icanthearyou 4,463]

This war is the sole creation of Putin.  It has predictably escalated beyond the significance of just the Ukraine.

This is now a world war with energy, economics being part of the battlefield.

I think the goal now is to weaken Putin as a leader, if not indirectly depose him.  And, weaken the conventional forces of the Russian military.

My biggest problem with our execution to this point is, the Biden administration needs to be honest with the American people.  We are in a war and, more sacrifices will have to be made.

I am surprised by the resolve shown by Europe to this point.  They should be commended.  I hope the American people will show more resolve but, until they are shown the respect of honesty, I cannot blame them for being skeptical, if not cynical.

I believe we had better come to terms with this situation, show resolve and, do everything possible to (relatively) peacefully resolve this conflict to our favor.  The greatest significance may be that,,, an increasingly aggressive Chinese government is watching (and several would be dictators).  The real trick here is, to do all of this without a nuclear tragedy.

Regardless, the outcome will be significant to future world order.  I do not believe we can simply walk away.

 

 

[AUDub 11,151]

3 hours ago, CoffeeTiger said:

I wont get into Elon musk other than to say he is generally an idiot on anything that's not engineering related.

He's more Steve Jobs than Steve Wozniak.

That's not to say he's a complete moron on engineering, but he's more of an entrepreneur and hype man than any sort of genius with regard to engineering. He's a VERY good hype man, to be honest. 

Unfortunately he's one of those that believes his own hype. 

[TexasTiger 12,920]

1 hour ago, I_M4_AU said:

The first part of your statement I agree with.  The quoted passage; I wonder if China wants to see how far Putin can press the US and their allies into a weakened stance.  Saudi Arabia isn’t helping.

I think China does want to see that. But they didn’t step into to help.

[AuburnNTexas 7,150]

I don't like Biden because of his policies but I have to be fair the US under Biden let everybody know they thought Russia was going to invade. While I think it took to long to supply the type weapons like the HIMAR I understand why the administration was leery.  Most of Bidens Foreign Policy has been a failures but on the whole I think he has done a good job with Ukraine.

[AUDub 11,151]

3 hours ago, AuburnNTexas said:

I don't like Biden because of his policies but I have to be fair the US under Biden let everybody know they thought Russia was going to invade. While I think it took to long to supply the type weapons like the HIMAR I understand why the administration was leery.  Most of Bidens Foreign Policy has been a failures but on the whole I think he has done a good job with Ukraine.

The Intel community did a very good job with regard to Russia in the lead up to the invasion. Basically telegraphed Russia's every move and told everyone what was going on before it happened. 

[AUDub 11,151]

Russia never really got a chance to take control of the narrative. 

[DKW 86 7,425]

13 hours ago, icanthearyou said:

This war is the sole creation of Putin.  It has predictably escalated beyond the significance of just the Ukraine.

This is now a world war with energy, economics being part of the battlefield.

I think the goal now is to weaken Putin as a leader, if not indirectly depose him.  And, weaken the conventional forces of the Russian military.

My biggest problem with our execution to this point is, the Biden administration needs to be honest with the American people.  We are in a war and, more sacrifices will have to be made.

I am surprised by the resolve shown by Europe to this point.  They should be commended.  I hope the American people will show more resolve but, until they are shown the respect of honesty, I cannot blame them for being skeptical, if not cynical.

I believe we had better come to terms with this situation, show resolve and, do everything possible to (relatively) peacefully resolve this conflict to our favor.  The greatest significance may be that,,, an increasingly aggressive Chinese government is watching (and several would be dictators).  The real trick here is, to do all of this without a nuclear tragedy.

Regardless, the outcome will be significant to future world order.  I do not believe we can simply walk away.

That is a near perfect analysis. Russia is a has-been nation that trails many much smaller nations in economic impact. The Communist Party has crippled them with backwards thinking. Same story in Cuba. Many, my dumbass included, supposed that the Red Army was still very strong. Well, now we know much better. They are disorganized and ill equipped and are far less than the Red Army that invaded Afghanistan. Such is the Russian Economy. 

Our long-term rival and far more important strategic enemy is China. That is the truth folks. We need to be getting ready for a war facing the Chinese. It is laughable that people are so overwhelmingly worried about a third rate nation like Russia. Russia is the same economic size as Australia, South Korea, Canada, and Brazil. Anyone afraid of these nations? Russia cannot wage a war with anyone for long and now we see that they are indeed losing to a properly armed Ukraine.

Edited October 15, 2022 by DKW 86

[homersapien 11,382]

On 10/14/2022 at 12:43 PM, I_M4_AU said:

So, he did not support his warnings with any substantial threats before the invasion.  He just sat back and let is happen.  You can lead a horse to water and all that, but Biden knew and he couldn’t convince his allies of his beliefs.  Leadership.

Now he can say; *see I told you so*.  Doesn’t help, does it.

You are monomaniacal. 

If Biden could have somehow prevented Putin from invading Ukraine - which he couldn't - you'd undoubtedly be blaming him for an unnecessary effort to do so.