A Moment of Truth for the West

[Tigermike 3,053]

MOMENT OF TRUTH

ISLAMO-FASCIST TERROR COULD TRIGGER A BRUTAL WESTERN RESPONSE

RALPH PETERS

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August 20, 2006 -- IN the wake of Israel's strategic setback in Lebanon, where's the Middle East headed? (Hint: The road sign doesn't read "Age of Aquarius").

Powerful emotions intoxicate all sides. In the Middle East, only the Israelis have intellectual and moral integrity. Arabs and Persians rely on a culture of blame. The media obscure as much as they illumine.

So what should truly concern us? Bad news first.

Within the forces of terror, the balance of power has shifted. Sunni fanatics, such as al Qaeda's supporters, have suffered severe losses in Afghanistan, Iraq and around the world. Still capable of doing serious damage, they're nonetheless being eclipsed in importance by state-backed Shia terrorists, with Hezbollah in the lead and Iran providing arms, money, training and strategic depth.

* A postmodern terrorist army - Hezbollah's - just achieved the first terrorist defeat of a powerful state on a conventional battlefield. The strategic echoes will embolden extremists throughout the Middle East and beyond.

* Iran, a state that openly sponsors terrorism, is well on the way to possessing nuclear weapons. And the world community pretends it doesn't really matter. Worse, military action to destroy Tehran's dispersed and bunkered nuclear program would require a massive, sustained effort - and still might fail. Iran's been playing poker while the West plays Old Maids.

* Iraq could fail - if the Iraqis fail themselves. It's still too early to pack up and leave, but if the people of Iraq will not seize the opportunity we gave them to build the region's first Arab-majority rule-of-law democracy, it won't be an American defeat, but another self-inflicted Arab disaster. Iraq is the Arab world's last chance - and the odds are now 50-50 they'll throw it away.

* Lebanon, the region's other "almost" democracy, is in shambles, thanks to Hezbollah's ruthlessness and Israel's misjudgments. By failing to take Lebanon's complex group psychologies into account, Israel's air campaign converted Hezbollah opponents into Hezbollah supporters.

* Syria escaped the recent fighting with just a few tactical nicks. Now Bashar Assad appears stunningly unaware of his odious regime's vulnerability. And over-confident dictatorships do very stupid things.

* The region's Sunni- Arab autocracies - on which we have relied, to our great shame - are terrified and unstable. Egypt, the Gulf city-states and even Saudi Arabia expected Israel to make short work of the Shia-Hezbollah problem. Instead, Hezbollah won - and the subjects of those sheiks and kings and eternal presidents have been cheering.

* Crucial oil producers on the Arab side of the Persian Gulf grow more vulnerable each day. Iran intends to exert hegemony over the region through nuclear threats and the exploitation of Shia discontents. The world's worst real-estate investment is luxury property in Dubai.

There's more, of course, from the Islamist takeover in Somalia, at the region's southern edge, to the Dorian Gray decomposition of the Pakistani state at its eastern extreme. So what on earth might give us cause for hope?

* Israel's recent defeat, for one thing. Yes, you read that right. The truth is that Israel got a relatively cheap, if embarrassing, wake-up call. And Israel's a part of Western civilization, not of the Middle East's decaying cultures. That means that Israel doesn't just wallow in blame - like Americans, Israelis figure out what went wrong and then fix it. After the post-war soul-searching and investigations are finished, failed leaders will be replaced and Israel will re-emerge with a renewed sense of mission, a stronger government and a powerfully reformed military - the next time the IDF goes to war, watch the way it devastates its enemies.

* The "unity of Muslims" confronting the West is history (it was always a bogus, ramshackle affair). Sunni-Arab leaders increasingly grasp that the real threat isn't from the United States or Israel, but from the explosion of Shia ambitions, prowess, wealth and desire for vengeance. The future of the Middle East could go a number of ways, but we may find ourselves as bemused spectators, while our sworn enemies and phony friends kill each other. Afterward, we'll pick up the pieces.

* Iraq still could muddle through - but even if it doesn't, our stock in the region is headed up, not down. The paradox is that a future civil war between Iraq's Sunnis and Shias makes our military protection more essential than ever to the effete Gulf emirates and the cowardly Saudis. Avoid linear analysis and reflexive predictions of doom for American interests: The Middle East will always do more harm to its natives than it does to foreign powers. Human beings may hate a distant enemy in theory, but they generally prefer to kill their neighbors.

* Terrorist groups with global aspirations continue to pursue grand, counterproductive gestures rather than effective actions. Plots to blow up a series of airliners, lesser strikes on subways or trains in the West and even the eventual "big one" they'll pull off won't convince the West to surrender. Despite intermittent left-wing lunacy, our debates and disagreements are about how best to solve the problem - not how to capitulate. Bit by bit, the Western mood is turning from disbelief regarding the "terrorist threat" to hard-knuckled realism about extremist Islam. 9/11 taught the terrorists little of use and many wrong lessons. It may be hard for some of us to discern what's really happening, but the Islamists are resurrecting a militant, ruthless West.

The florid American master of horror fiction, H. P. Lovecraft, warned his characters, "Do not raise up what ye cannot put down." Islamist terrorists are reviving the West's thirst for blood. And this time it won't be slaked in Flanders.

Things are going to get uglier east of Suez. And we're going to win.

Ralph Peters' new book is "Never Quit the Fight."

http://www.nypost.com/postopinion/opedcolu...alph_peters.htm

[otterinbham 0]

Yep. That's a pretty cogent analysis if you ask me. I keep having this discussion with people who say we're in a quagmire in the Middle East.

For starters, Bush really botched matters. No question about it. But those in the Arab world who think we've even begun to tap into our unmatched warmaking potential don't have a clue. Think about it for a moment. We conquered Afghanistan and then turned our sights on Iraq (the region's most powerful military) with five divisions. And the campaign took less than five weeks. Without a military draft. In fact, the military is now back to making its recruitment quotas month after month.

If Iran begins to really piss us off, or we feel our vital interests are at stake, I don't think anybody will realize the enormity of the warmaking machine we would unleash in the region. I just don't think these jokers comprehend.

[Tigermike 3,053]

Yep. That's a pretty cogent analysis if you ask me. I keep having this discussion with people who say we're in a quagmire in the Middle East.

For starters, Bush really botched matters. No question about it. But those in the Arab world who think we've even begun to tap into our unmatched warmaking potential don't have a clue. Think about it for a moment. We conquered Afghanistan and then turned our sights on Iraq (the region's most powerful military) with five divisions. And the campaign took less than five weeks. Without a military draft. In fact, the military is now back to making its recruitment quotas month after month.

If Iran begins to really piss us off, or we feel our vital interests are at stake, I don't think anybody will realize the enormity of the warmaking machine we would unleash in the region. I just don't think these jokers comprehend.

Yep. That's a pretty cogent analysis if you ask me. I keep having this discussion with people who say we're in a quagmire in the Middle East.

For starters, Bush really botched matters. No question about it. But those in the Arab world who think we've even begun to tap into our unmatched warmaking potential don't have a clue. Think about it for a moment. We conquered Afghanistan and then turned our sights on Iraq (the region's most powerful military) with five divisions. And the campaign took less than five weeks. Without a military draft. In fact, the military is now back to making its recruitment quotas month after month.

If Iran begins to really piss us off, or we feel our vital interests are at stake, I don't think anybody will realize the enormity of the warmaking machine we would unleash in the region. I just don't think these jokers comprehend.

It would take a hell of a lot for that to happen with a democrat administration or a democrat congress. They have worked diligently for the past five years to destroy the will of the US to fight the WOT. I have said all along if our country were to be united against this threat, it would be great.

[DKW 86 7,440]

I keep thinking that I am the only one seeing this stuff, but then I see more and more that many others are seeing the LONGTERM problem. There is a civil war looming. It will not just be in Iraq though. It will be Sunni-Shia and it will include most of the Middle-East.

* Syria escaped the recent fighting with just a few tactical nicks. Now Bashar Assad appears stunningly unaware of his odious regime's vulnerability. And over-confident dictatorships do very stupid things.

Assad has signed his own death warrant and he doesnt even know it yet.

* The region's Sunni- Arab autocracies - on which we have relied, to our great shame - are terrified and unstable. Egypt, the Gulf city-states and even Saudi Arabia expected Israel to make short work of the Shia-Hezbollah problem. Instead, Hezbollah won - and the subjects of those sheiks and kings and eternal presidents have been cheering.

The Saudis still have to harvest the the Wahabiism they seeded all over the Middle-East. That day is coming too.

* Iraq could fail - if the Iraqis fail themselves. It's still too early to pack up and leave, but if the people of Iraq will not seize the opportunity we gave them to build the region's first Arab-majority rule-of-law democracy, it won't be an American defeat, but another self-inflicted Arab disaster. Iraq is the Arab world's last chance - and the odds are now 50-50 they'll throw it away.

The best thing we can do is to get out of Iraq NOW, ASAP. If they cannot rule themselves, then hey, let them pay the price. We are not Imperialists.

We have bigger fish to fry in N. Korea and maybe ultimately in Iran. For our economy's sake, we need to get to oil independence ASAP. Open up oil exploration here in the US and along the coast now. The more dependednt we stay on ME oil, the more we have to be involved in a war or series of wars that will ultimately leave the ME a graveyard.

Look at it this way, when we were doing well in the ME was when Sunnis were fighting Shia and vice versa. During the Iran-Iraq war we were influential, Israel was safe. Let the looming Shia-Suinni bllodbath get underway now and let them be consumed with warring with each other and leaving the rest of the world alone.