Inside the Numbers - Cox and Wilson

[StatTiger 3,188]

After four games into the season, John Parker Wilson is the 14th highest rated passer in the nation based on his 162.4 QB rating. Brandon Cox is currently the 28th rated passer with a 145.8 QB rating.

Wilson is off to the better start but here are a few things to consider...

Brandon Cox and the Auburn Tigers have competed against the 11th toughest schedule according to the NCAA's strength of schedule. John Parker Wilson and Alabama have competed against the 63rd toughest schedule in the nation.

Breaking it down by downs:

1st down QB ratings:

Wilson .... 185.3

Cox ........ 175.9

2nd down:

Wilson ..... 175.8

Cox ......... 148.2

3rd down:

Wilson ...... 116.6

Cox .......... 114.1

IMO, 3rd down passing efficiency is the best way of judging a QB's true worth and both QB's are very close with Cox playing the tougher schedule.

For the season, Cox has converted his 24 pass attempts on 3rd down into 10 first downs (41.7%), while Wilson has converted 11 of his 29 pass attempts on 3rd down into first downs (37.9%).

One of the key reasons why Wilson has posted the higher QB rating is his higher number of pass attempts on 1st down. For the season, 41.4% of his pass attempts have been on 1st down, while Cox has attempted more pass attempts on 3rd down (32.0%) than 1st down (30.7%).

Because Alabama has struggled establishing their running game, Coach Shula has thrown the ball more frequently on 1st down, giving his young QB a better opportunity to succeed. Wilson has responded by completing 71% of his passes on 1st down for a 10.4 yard average per pass attempt.

On 3rd down, Wilson has completed only 52% of his passes, while Cox has completed 58% of his passed on 3rd down.

As I have noted before, because Cox has been forced into passing more often on 3rd down than 1st down, his QB rating and production is doomed to drop. Wilson has not been forced into passing more often on 3rd down than 1st down this season but Cox has been placed into this situation in 2 of 4 ball games.

Cox has completed 65% of his passes for 11.5 yards per pass attempt on 1st down. It drops to 61% and 8.5 yards on 2nd down and 58% / 7.6 yards on 3rd down. If Borges can mix up his play calling on 1st down, allowing Cox to pass more on 1st down than 3rd down, Auburn's passing game should improve.

2 cents

[TigerOne 1,148]

you've just given bammers something useless to brag about. Kind of like last years "we were on CBS more

than anyone"

But in reality JPW will probably make everyone wonder why they thought Croyle was any good at all.

I'll take Brandon any day, overall he is the better qb.

[StatTiger 3,188]

you've just given bammers something useless to brag about. Kind of like last years "we were on CBS more

than anyone"

But in reality JPW will probably make everyone wonder why they thought Croyle was any good at all.

I'll take Brandon any day, overall he is the better qb.

I would take Cox too but Wilson has a good upside. My intent of this post was not to say Cox is the better QB but to point out the use of both QB's. Though I firmly believe Borges is the better OC compared to Shula-Rader, I give credit to Shula for getting the max out of Wilson by allowing him to pass more often on 1st down. The Florida-Alabama game will give us a better indication of just how good Wilson is right now.