Playoff/ratings proposal

[quietfan 233]

I first dreamed up this plan after 2004. Since 2006 looks like it may end just as controversially, I post it again

NCAA DIVISION 1-A PLAYOFF PLAN

--A plan to preserve the integrity of the historic bowl structure, remove ranking decisions from the realm of human bias, and establish a undisputed, NCAA-recognized national champion in Division 1-A football each year--

At the end of the season the best eight teams as established by the ranking system described below will meet in the four major BCS bowls (although the BCS as an organization will cease to exist), #1 vs. #8, #2 vs. #7, #3 vs. #6, #4 vs. #5. The four winners of these games will meet in two semifinals approximately one week later, and the two victors in the semifinals meet for a national championship game a week or so after that.

The key to the system is the way the 8 playoff berths are assigned, using the following ranking system:

First of all, the regular season is returned to an 11-game schedule. That provides a much needed open weekend for R&R during the regular season and simplifies the scoring in the system (Each of the first three categories carries an equal 10 point maximum).

THE RANKING SYSTEM

Each game can be worth a maximum 35 points to a victorious team. These points are assigned from four categories as follows:

I) W-L RECORDS-10 points possible: A team will receive 10 points for each victory. Victories over Div. 1-AA teams will count normally in this category.

II) STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE/A (SOS/A)-10 points possible: A team will receive one point for each win by a defeated opponent. A defeated opponent can have at best a 10-1 record, which means there are 10 possible points each game available as SOS/A points. (For example, if an opponent wins finishes at 9-2, we could earn 9 SOS/A points for beating them.) Opponent victories over Div 1-AA teams will not count in this category, i.e., we could only earn 9 points from beating a 10-1 team with a 1-AA opponent on their schedule.

III) STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE/B (SOS/ -10 possible points: A team will receive 0.1 point for each victory by a team that was beaten by an defeated opponent. Since each defeated opponent could theoretically finish 10-1 against ten other teams with 10-1 records, there would be a possible of 10 x 10 x 0.1 = 10 points possible as SOS/B points. (Example: Suppose a 9-2 team we defeated beats 9 teams that averaged 8 wins each. We would earn 9 x 8 x 0.1 = 7.2 SOS points for our victory.) Again, a win over a 1-AA opponent would not qualify for the 0.1 point.

IV) "STYLE" POINTS-5 possible:

a] Margin of Victory (MOV) points -2 points possible:

1 point for beating an opponent by a score of 9 or more (opponent would have to score twice to save the game), OR, 2 points for a MOV of 17 or more (opponent would have to score thrice). A MOV of 50 is no better than a MOV of 17, so there is no motivation for outrageously running up a score.

b] Ranked Opponent points (RO)-2 points possible:

1 point for beating an opponent is ranked in the AP or Coach's Top 25 at the time of the game, OR, 2 points if they’re ranked in the Top-10. (This is the only area in which I let human bias enter the process, since humans vote on the AP & Coach’s polls). This rewards the extra psychological effort needed to defeat a ranked team.

c] Outstanding Performance (OP) points- 1 point possible:

To recognize outstanding play by an offensive or defensive unit, 1 point either for scoring 30+ points or for holding an opponent to 6 points or less. (This 1 point would even be award to teams that lose the game itself--the only time losers score points in these ratings)

A couple of examples from recent games:

Suppose LSU finished out an 11 game season at 10-1, with those ten wins coming over 1-A teams that averaged 7 victories themselves over 1-A teams. Then our victory over LSU would have earned us 10 pts for the win, 10 SOS/A pts. for LSU's wins, 10 x 7 x 0.1 = 7 SOS/B pts for their victims' wins, 2 RO pts. since they were in the Top-10 when we played, and 1 OP pt. for holding them to a field goal; or a total of 10+10+7+2+1=30 points for the game. LSU would get nothing, but could have gotten 1 OP point if we had missed our PAT.

Suppose Bama finished at 7-4 against teams averaging 8 wins each (excluding 1-AA teams). Then Florida's victory yesterday would earn the Gators 10 pts for the win, 7 SOS/A pts for Bama's wins, 7 x 8 x 0.1 = 5.6 SOS/B pts for Bama's victims' wins, and 1 MOV pt for winning by 15; or 10+7+5.6+1=23.6 points for the game.

PLAYOFF BERTHS

The eight teams with the highest cumulative point totals under this scoring system would meet in the 1st round (4 major bowls) of the playoff process, with seeding determine by their totals.

Obviously, strength of schedule points cannot be award until every team has finished its season, so weekly rankings could be reported only as a maximum/minimum possible score until the season and conference championship games ended. [bowl games will not count on SOS scoring.] Early in the season, these scores would be very fluid, but as the season progressed (and opponents' records firmed up) they would begin stabilize.

Conference champions (and Notre Dame!) would get no automatic bids (we're not having a 3-4 loss ACC champ knocking a 10-1 SEC runner up out of the playoffs, for example!). However, winning in a conference championship games would give that team access to another 35 possible game points; which reward teams for playing those tough 12th games, and often will be sufficient to push them above teams not winning a conference championship game. (SOS/A and RO points in particular should be high for championship games.)

Finally, in case of ties in final point standings, I suggest the following tie-breakers:

1st: Head-to-head competition

2nd: Record against common opponents

3rd: Least number of penalties called over the season (reward the team that made fewer mistakes).

4th. Least number of major (long distance) penalties such as unsportsmanlike conduct, roughing, late-hits, etc. (reward the team that played less "dirty")

5th: Team with the most graduating seniors (give the seniors one last shot at glory-underclassmen can try again next year.)

(Some might also want to include home/away records in the tie breakers.)

PS. I realize that this plan has zero chance to get past the college presidents, the BCS, TV/media mogols, and other special interests making money on the status quo--but I feel a little better just imagining it.