Question for the Democrats?

[AUTiger1 0]

I was reading an article form CNN this morning and it made me curious. I will quote the content that made me curious and paste the link.

According to early exit polls, half of Clinton's supporters in Indiana would not vote for Obama in a general election matchup with Sen. John McCain, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee. Video Watch what the exit polls show »

A third of Clinton voters said they would pick McCain over Obama, while 17 percent said they would not vote at all. Forty-eight percent of Clinton supporters said they would back Obama in November.

Obama got even less support from Clinton backers in North Carolina, where 45 percent of Clinton supporters said they would vote for him over McCain. Thirty-eight percent of Clinton supporters said they would vote for McCain while 12 percent said they would not vote.

Obama voters appear to be more willing to support Clinton in November. In Indiana, 59 percent of Obama backers said they'd vote for Clinton, and 70 percent of Obama backers in North Carolina said vote for her against McCain.

So why is it, that the Obama supporters are more willing to back Clinton than the Clinton supporters are willing to back Obama? Is it the elderly, white working class voters, is race the issue? Is it bitter feelings between the two camps? Are we to believe that they will still feel the same in Nov or will they change their minds?

I just thought that was curious and was wondering if there were any supporters of either candidate on the board that felt the same.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/05/06/pri...=rss_topstories

[WinCrimson 61]

Is it the elderly, white working class voters, is race the issue?

Bada bing.

Lets face it -- the first, middle and last name, pastor, and skin color scare some segments of the population. As the campaign wears on, a few of them will come to Obama's camp, but it's a strong possibility that McCain wins 20% of self-identified Democrats. This will be offset by Obama's margin of victory among the unaffiliated, however.

[TexasTiger 13,031]

I was reading an article form CNN this morning and it made me curious. I will quote the content that made me curious and paste the link.

According to early exit polls, half of Clinton's supporters in Indiana would not vote for Obama in a general election matchup with Sen. John McCain, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee. Video Watch what the exit polls show »

A third of Clinton voters said they would pick McCain over Obama, while 17 percent said they would not vote at all. Forty-eight percent of Clinton supporters said they would back Obama in November.

Obama got even less support from Clinton backers in North Carolina, where 45 percent of Clinton supporters said they would vote for him over McCain. Thirty-eight percent of Clinton supporters said they would vote for McCain while 12 percent said they would not vote.

Obama voters appear to be more willing to support Clinton in November. In Indiana, 59 percent of Obama backers said they'd vote for Clinton, and 70 percent of Obama backers in North Carolina said vote for her against McCain.

So why is it, that the Obama supporters are more willing to back Clinton than the Clinton supporters are willing to back Obama? Is it the elderly, white working class voters, is race the issue? Is it bitter feelings between the two camps? Are we to believe that they will still feel the same in Nov or will they change their minds?

I just thought that was curious and was wondering if there were any supporters of either candidate on the board that felt the same.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/05/06/pri...=rss_topstories

I think it is partly race-- a bigger issue for older voters, on the whole. Also, HRC has slammed Obama as not up to the job, so her supporters are more apt to think that.

But if you look in both states, McCain lost about 25% of the Republican vote to other Republicans even though he's the prospective nominee. Will they vote for him in Nov? Maybe. But enthusiasm seems to be lacking..

[WinCrimson 61]

Good point, Tejas.

Huckabee, the candidate of social conservatives, received 10% last night. Paul, the limited government crowd's hero, got a little over 7%. And Romney, the representative for the white collar crowd, drew about 5% despite not being in the race since Februrary.

The GOP has problems of its own.

[AUTiger1 0]

Interesting. No doubt that a lot of conservatives are still not enthusiastic about McCain. I read those numbers and I was wondering who the majority of those Clinton supporters were. I didn't know if it was more the elderly vote or the white working class vote that was saying they wouldn't vote for Obama. I would imagine that some will vote the party no matter what when it comes down to it. Things will be interesting this November.

[Tigermike 3,055]

I was reading an article form CNN this morning and it made me curious. I will quote the content that made me curious and paste the link.

According to early exit polls, half of Clinton's supporters in Indiana would not vote for Obama in a general election matchup with Sen. John McCain, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee. Video Watch what the exit polls show »

A third of Clinton voters said they would pick McCain over Obama, while 17 percent said they would not vote at all. Forty-eight percent of Clinton supporters said they would back Obama in November.

Obama got even less support from Clinton backers in North Carolina, where 45 percent of Clinton supporters said they would vote for him over McCain. Thirty-eight percent of Clinton supporters said they would vote for McCain while 12 percent said they would not vote.

Obama voters appear to be more willing to support Clinton in November. In Indiana, 59 percent of Obama backers said they'd vote for Clinton, and 70 percent of Obama backers in North Carolina said vote for her against McCain.

So why is it, that the Obama supporters are more willing to back Clinton than the Clinton supporters are willing to back Obama? Is it the elderly, white working class voters, is race the issue? Is it bitter feelings between the two camps? Are we to believe that they will still feel the same in Nov or will they change their minds?

I just thought that was curious and was wondering if there were any supporters of either candidate on the board that felt the same.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/05/06/pri...=rss_topstories

I think it is partly race-- a bigger issue for older voters, on the whole. Also, HRC has slammed Obama as not up to the job, so her supporters are more apt to think that.

But if you look in both states, McCain lost about 25% of the Republican vote to other Republicans even though he's the prospective nominee. Will they vote for him in Nov? Maybe. But enthusiasm seems to be lacking..

So it's about race for older white voters but not for anyone else?

"Obama won 91 percent of the black vote in North Carolina, but Clinton took 59 percent of the white vote."

91% of the vote? That statistic approaches the kind of result you see in elections held in say, Venezuela or Cuba, wouldn't you say? Where there is only one candidate and you'd better vote for him, or else.

What do those statistics suggest about residual racism in this country? Who's behaving in a stereotypically racist manner here, and for which block of voters is the color of one's skin the most important consideration?

With that asked, I will say it does not surprise or bother me that many (most) blacks vote for Obama simply based on race. After all he is the first black to be in this position.

[TexasTiger 13,031]

I was reading an article form CNN this morning and it made me curious. I will quote the content that made me curious and paste the link.

According to early exit polls, half of Clinton's supporters in Indiana would not vote for Obama in a general election matchup with Sen. John McCain, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee. Video Watch what the exit polls show »

A third of Clinton voters said they would pick McCain over Obama, while 17 percent said they would not vote at all. Forty-eight percent of Clinton supporters said they would back Obama in November.

Obama got even less support from Clinton backers in North Carolina, where 45 percent of Clinton supporters said they would vote for him over McCain. Thirty-eight percent of Clinton supporters said they would vote for McCain while 12 percent said they would not vote.

Obama voters appear to be more willing to support Clinton in November. In Indiana, 59 percent of Obama backers said they'd vote for Clinton, and 70 percent of Obama backers in North Carolina said vote for her against McCain.

So why is it, that the Obama supporters are more willing to back Clinton than the Clinton supporters are willing to back Obama? Is it the elderly, white working class voters, is race the issue? Is it bitter feelings between the two camps? Are we to believe that they will still feel the same in Nov or will they change their minds?

I just thought that was curious and was wondering if there were any supporters of either candidate on the board that felt the same.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/05/06/pri...=rss_topstories

I think it is partly race-- a bigger issue for older voters, on the whole. Also, HRC has slammed Obama as not up to the job, so her supporters are more apt to think that.

But if you look in both states, McCain lost about 25% of the Republican vote to other Republicans even though he's the prospective nominee. Will they vote for him in Nov? Maybe. But enthusiasm seems to be lacking..

So it's about race for older white voters but not for anyone else?

"Obama won 91 percent of the black vote in North Carolina, but Clinton took 59 percent of the white vote."

91% of the vote? That statistic approaches the kind of result you see in elections held in say, Venezuela or Cuba, wouldn't you say? Where there is only one candidate and you'd better vote for him, or else.

What do those statistics suggest about residual racism in this country? Who's behaving in a stereotypically racist manner here, and for which block of voters is the color of one's skin the most important consideration?

With that asked, I will say it does not surprise or bother me that many (most) blacks vote for Obama simply based on race. After all he is the first black to be in this position.

The question posed was why a greater percentage of HRC supporters said they wouldn't vote for Obama if he was the Democratic nominee. Those black voters who are voting for Obama have routinely voted for white candidates. HRC's strongest support is from older voters who have NEVER voted for a black candidate for President and are apparently less inclined to. BTW, 91% of black voters are voting for the best candidate.

[Ranger12 46]

Those numbers are very interesting. I have also had a couple of Clinton supporters tell me they would voter for McCain over Obama. I found that quite strange. They bother are very liberal, so why would they not support the other liberal candidate? Race was the first thing to come to my mind, however the couple that told me that, I know are not racist, so what else could there be besides the obvious race concern?

As for McCain and the conservatives having "issues" also, I have to disagree because it does not come close to the split democratic party. While many conservatives are not that happy with the McCain nomination, like me for instance, he did win the nomination rather convincingly, so that tells me that for the most part conservatives are behind him even though many would have preferred a more conservative candidate.

For instance, I supported Duncan Hunter when the race first started because I thought he was the only true conservative running and I trusted his experience as a combat veteran and foreign policy stance to defend this country. However, when he dropped out, I was torn between McCain and Huckabee. I liked that Huckabee was more socially conservative than McCain, but on the flip side, I trusted McCain's defense and foreign policy experience more. In the end, for me, McCain won out because I thought he would do a better job defending this country. Bottom line is that conservatives would rather voter for a moderate, even slightly liberal leaning McCain rather then an extreme liberal such as Obama and Clinton.

I think all these disgruntled Clinton supporters are just reacting the same way Hilary is...they are pissed because she is not getting her way anymore. They are mad because the Clintons are not the darlings of the Democratic party anymore. However, I think that when the general election comes around, they will get over it and vote for Obama.

[TexasTiger 13,031]

Those numbers are very interesting. I have also had a couple of Clinton supporters tell me they would voter for McCain over Obama. I found that quite strange. They bother are very liberal, so why would they not support the other liberal candidate? Race was the first thing to come to my mind, however the couple that told me that, I know are not racist, so what else could there be besides the obvious race concern?

As for McCain and the conservatives having "issues" also, I have to disagree because it does not come close to the split democratic party. While many conservatives are not that happy with the McCain nomination, like me for instance, he did win the nomination rather convincingly, so that tells me that for the most part conservatives are behind him even though many would have preferred a more conservative candidate.

For instance, I supported Duncan Hunter when the race first started because I thought he was the only true conservative running and I trusted his experience as a combat veteran and foreign policy stance to defend this country. However, when he dropped out, I was torn between McCain and Huckabee. I liked that Huckabee was more socially conservative than McCain, but on the flip side, I trusted McCain's defense and foreign policy experience more. In the end, for me, McCain won out because I thought he would do a better job defending this country. Bottom line is that conservatives would rather voter for a moderate, even slightly liberal leaning McCain rather then an extreme liberal such as Obama and Clinton.

I think all these disgruntled Clinton supporters are just reacting the same way Hilary is...they are pissed because she is not getting her way anymore. They are mad because the Clintons are not the darlings of the Democratic party anymore. However, I think that when the general election comes around, they will get over it and vote for Obama.

I think the Dems you describe will likely vote for Obama. I think there are different categories of Dem primary voters and some will come around, and some won't.

McCain benefited from a split field and a winner take all system. "Conservatives" are split into many groups and tended to coalesce around different candidates. I think most will vote Republican, but I don't think he'll turn out the base like Bush was able to. Evangelicals will be less of a force this time around. He'll need more independents and may get them.

[jw 4 au 526]

I think the Dems you describe will likely vote for Obama. I think there are different categories of Dem primary voters and some will come around, and some won't.

McCain benefited from a split field and a winner take all system. "Conservatives" are split into many groups and tended to coalesce around different candidates. I think most will vote Republican, but I don't think he'll turn out the base like Bush was able to. Evangelicals will be less of a force this time around. He'll need more independents and may get them.

That last statement is why I think McCain will win the general election. I certainly think his moderate views more closely resemble those of Independants than Obama's. Obama can talk a good game about bringing both parties together, but his record speaks differently, and I think the GOP will re-organize and come together to pounce on this. To take it further, a moderate Democrat could possibly more resemble McCain than Obama as well, so he may swing some of those votes as well. It will be interesting to see if McCain allows the campaign to get tough. I certainly think Obama's campaign will like it has to date, that is letting others do his dirty work all the while Obama stis back and says that "He is appalled by those tactics" or "Doesn't agree with that...".

[Tigermike 3,055]

I was reading an article form CNN this morning and it made me curious. I will quote the content that made me curious and paste the link.

According to early exit polls, half of Clinton's supporters in Indiana would not vote for Obama in a general election matchup with Sen. John McCain, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee. Video Watch what the exit polls show »

A third of Clinton voters said they would pick McCain over Obama, while 17 percent said they would not vote at all. Forty-eight percent of Clinton supporters said they would back Obama in November.

Obama got even less support from Clinton backers in North Carolina, where 45 percent of Clinton supporters said they would vote for him over McCain. Thirty-eight percent of Clinton supporters said they would vote for McCain while 12 percent said they would not vote.

Obama voters appear to be more willing to support Clinton in November. In Indiana, 59 percent of Obama backers said they'd vote for Clinton, and 70 percent of Obama backers in North Carolina said vote for her against McCain.

So why is it, that the Obama supporters are more willing to back Clinton than the Clinton supporters are willing to back Obama? Is it the elderly, white working class voters, is race the issue? Is it bitter feelings between the two camps? Are we to believe that they will still feel the same in Nov or will they change their minds?

I just thought that was curious and was wondering if there were any supporters of either candidate on the board that felt the same.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/05/06/pri...=rss_topstories

I think it is partly race-- a bigger issue for older voters, on the whole. Also, HRC has slammed Obama as not up to the job, so her supporters are more apt to think that.

But if you look in both states, McCain lost about 25% of the Republican vote to other Republicans even though he's the prospective nominee. Will they vote for him in Nov? Maybe. But enthusiasm seems to be lacking..

So it's about race for older white voters but not for anyone else?

"Obama won 91 percent of the black vote in North Carolina, but Clinton took 59 percent of the white vote."

91% of the vote? That statistic approaches the kind of result you see in elections held in say, Venezuela or Cuba, wouldn't you say? Where there is only one candidate and you'd better vote for him, or else.

What do those statistics suggest about residual racism in this country? Who's behaving in a stereotypically racist manner here, and for which block of voters is the color of one's skin the most important consideration?

With that asked, I will say it does not surprise or bother me that many (most) blacks vote for Obama simply based on race. After all he is the first black to be in this position.

The question posed was why a greater percentage of HRC supporters said they wouldn't vote for Obama if he was the Democratic nominee. Those black voters who are voting for Obama have routinely voted for white candidates. HRC's strongest support is from older voters who have NEVER voted for a black candidate for President and are apparently less inclined to. BTW, 91% of black voters are voting for the best candidate.

Or it could be that the 91% voted because of race and the 9% took a good look at his agenda, his associations, his meaningless platitudes and his 'upscale ghetto' rhetoric & demagoguery and decided they wanted nothing to do with him.

Thomas Sowell on Obama:

Like everyone else, I have also been hearing a lot lately about Jeremiah Wright, former pastor of the church that Barack Obama has belonged to for 20 years.

Both men, in their different ways, have for decades been promoting the far left vision of victimization and grievances-- Wright from his pulpit and Obama in roles ranging from community organizer to the United States Senate, where he has had the farthest left voting record.

Later, when the ultimate political prize-- the White House-- loomed on the horizon, Obama did a complete makeover, now portraying himself as a healer of divisions.

The difference between Barack Obama and Jeremiah Wright is that they are addressing different audiences, using different styles adapted to those audiences.

It is a difference between upscale demagoguery and ghetto demagoguery, playing the audience for suckers in both cases.

People on the far left like to flatter themselves that they are for the poor and the downtrodden.

...We don't need people like either Jeremiah Wright or Barack Obama to take us backward.

The time is long overdue to stop gullibly accepting the left's vision of itself as idealistic, rather than self-aggrandizing.

Notice how it is always all about them?

[arnaldoabru 11]

Those numbers are very interesting. I have also had a couple of Clinton supporters tell me they would voter for McCain over Obama. I found that quite strange. They bother are very liberal, so why would they not support the other liberal candidate? Race was the first thing to come to my mind, however the couple that told me that, I know are not racist, so what else could there be besides the obvious race concern?

As for McCain and the conservatives having "issues" also, I have to disagree because it does not come close to the split democratic party. While many conservatives are not that happy with the McCain nomination, like me for instance, he did win the nomination rather convincingly, so that tells me that for the most part conservatives are behind him even though many would have preferred a more conservative candidate.

For instance, I supported Duncan Hunter when the race first started because I thought he was the only true conservative running and I trusted his experience as a combat veteran and foreign policy stance to defend this country. However, when he dropped out, I was torn between McCain and Huckabee. I liked that Huckabee was more socially conservative than McCain, but on the flip side, I trusted McCain's defense and foreign policy experience more. In the end, for me, McCain won out because I thought he would do a better job defending this country. Bottom line is that conservatives would rather voter for a moderate, even slightly liberal leaning McCain rather then an extreme liberal such as Obama and Clinton.

I think all these disgruntled Clinton supporters are just reacting the same way Hilary is...they are pissed because she is not getting her way anymore. They are mad because the Clintons are not the darlings of the Democratic party anymore. However, I think that when the general election comes around, they will get over it and vote for Obama.

It will be interesting how this thing shakes out. I've had several conservative, Republican friends of mine who have said they are voting for Obama.

[CCTAU 3,350]

Those numbers are very interesting. I have also had a couple of Clinton supporters tell me they would voter for McCain over Obama. I found that quite strange. They bother are very liberal, so why would they not support the other liberal candidate? Race was the first thing to come to my mind, however the couple that told me that, I know are not racist, so what else could there be besides the obvious race concern?

As for McCain and the conservatives having "issues" also, I have to disagree because it does not come close to the split democratic party. While many conservatives are not that happy with the McCain nomination, like me for instance, he did win the nomination rather convincingly, so that tells me that for the most part conservatives are behind him even though many would have preferred a more conservative candidate.

For instance, I supported Duncan Hunter when the race first started because I thought he was the only true conservative running and I trusted his experience as a combat veteran and foreign policy stance to defend this country. However, when he dropped out, I was torn between McCain and Huckabee. I liked that Huckabee was more socially conservative than McCain, but on the flip side, I trusted McCain's defense and foreign policy experience more. In the end, for me, McCain won out because I thought he would do a better job defending this country. Bottom line is that conservatives would rather voter for a moderate, even slightly liberal leaning McCain rather then an extreme liberal such as Obama and Clinton.

I think all these disgruntled Clinton supporters are just reacting the same way Hilary is...they are pissed because she is not getting her way anymore. They are mad because the Clintons are not the darlings of the Democratic party anymore. However, I think that when the general election comes around, they will get over it and vote for Obama.

I think the Dems you describe will likely vote for Obama. I think there are different categories of Dem primary voters and some will come around, and some won't.

McCain benefited from a split field and a winner take all system. "Conservatives" are split into many groups and tended to coalesce around different candidates. I think most will vote Republican, but I don't think he'll turn out the base like Bush was able to. Evangelicals will be less of a force this time around. He'll need more independents and may get them.

I think you are wrong about the evangelicals. I think they see Oba...achmed as an almost cult like figure. They, more than any group, are very leery of this kind of following. Many will vote against him and not just for McCain.

Not to mention, he kinda pissed off those God, guns, and country folks.

[otterinbham 0]

I think it's interesting how, in Birmingham's lily white suburbs, Obama outpolled Clinton 3 to 1. However, a large proportion of those voters will probably stroll back into the voting booth in November and vote for McCain. I know it's Alabama, but I don't know how thoroughly this trend has been plumbed.

It will be an interesting election, that's for sure. Personally, I predict that McCain pulls it out in the last three weeks of the campaign on the working class vote.

[WinCrimson 61]

CCTAU: If there is anyone striving to look up to a mythic leader, it's conservative Christians. That's not an attack, mind you, but rather an observation. When you reflect on the number of televangelists (Hagee, Robertson, Baker, Falwell), causes they support to the bitter end (mainly the repeal of Roe), and candidates they've idolized over the years (Reagan, Bush Jr, Santorum), it's hard to say that they're against "cult-like" followings. If anybody is in a cult, it's those who voted at an 80% rate for a failure of a candidate in George W. Bush. I realize some had varying reasons for doing so, but you could find kneepads being worn out at fraternity houses, churches, and rodeos all across the South. They're the very definition of a cult.

otter: No, I don't think they will. The Birmingham suburb voters that preferred Obama in the primary will stick with him in the general. They, and I guess I'm included in this group even though I don't live in Birmingham, represent the left-leaning voting bloc of the white population that has issues with both parties, but don't like associating with the Jerry Falwell crowd. Vestavia Hills, Mountain Brook, Homewood, and Hoover all broke for Obama over Clinton. Liberal Huntsville and Madison County voted for Obama 60-40%. Areas where the Natty Light flows like water are areas that she performed well, but would still get pummeled in when election day rolls around. Her argument of "I can win Yoknapatawpha County because I defeated Barack Hussein Obama there!" is completely illogical.

I've noticed what you said throughout Tuscaloosa, too. I've seen about 5 McCain stickers to 100 Obama. I'm not saying that Obama will carry this county, but there's definitely more support for him in the AL population centers than there was for Kerry four years ago. Provided there are no more catastrophes, I could see him getting Gore-like numbers in Alabama and possibly even winning Madison and/or Jefferson depending on Yankee transplant and African-American turnout.

One last point -- a Gallup poll confirmed today that Obama is getting no less share of the white vote than Kerry received. That identical figure of 41% will be enough to keep the race close, but Obama is going to poll better among blacks, women, and Independents than Kerry -- three groups the Dem actually won in '04.

[AUTiger1 0]

I would be really shocked if Obama carries North Alabama. Especially since announcing that he is wanting to cut the the Aries program and his missile defense cuts he is proposing. He shot himself in the foot with a lot of voters in those counties over that. There is a lot of chatter in town about that. You hear something about it almost everyday at lunch time in the various restaurants and it has a lot of people worried about their jobs. North Alabama hasn't supported the Democratic candidate in a long long time.

When you say that you can see him getting Gore like numbers in Alabama, you do realize that Gore lost Alabama by something like 12 to 14%? The last poll I saw for the state was two weeks ago LINK to the day and it had McCain up 58 to 35. Alabama has went Republican in every election but two since 1964 and only once it has gone Democrat. (Carter in 76 and the Independent George Wallace in 68). I just don't see that changing for this one. Could be wrong, but I just don't the state going against the norm in this election.

[TexasTiger 13,031]

I would be really shocked if Obama carries North Alabama. Especially since announcing that he is wanting to cut the the Aries program and his missile defense cuts he is proposing. He shot himself in the foot with a lot of voters in those counties over that. There is a lot of chatter in town about that. You hear something about it almost everyday at lunch time in the various restaurants and it has a lot of people worried about their jobs. North Alabama hasn't supported the Democratic candidate in a long long time.

When you say that you can see him getting Gore like numbers in Alabama, you do realize that Gore lost Alabama by something like 12 to 14%? The last poll I saw for the state was two weeks ago LINK to the day and it had McCain up 58 to 35. Alabama has went Republican in every election but two since 1964 and only once it has gone Democrat. (Carter in 76 and the Independent George Wallace in 68). I just don't see that changing for this one. Could be wrong, but I just don't the state going against the norm in this election.

I don't think Obama's electoral strategy relies on a victory in Bama.

[AUTiger1 0]

I would be really shocked if Obama carries North Alabama. Especially since announcing that he is wanting to cut the the Aries program and his missile defense cuts he is proposing. He shot himself in the foot with a lot of voters in those counties over that. There is a lot of chatter in town about that. You hear something about it almost everyday at lunch time in the various restaurants and it has a lot of people worried about their jobs. North Alabama hasn't supported the Democratic candidate in a long long time.

When you say that you can see him getting Gore like numbers in Alabama, you do realize that Gore lost Alabama by something like 12 to 14%? The last poll I saw for the state was two weeks ago LINK to the day and it had McCain up 58 to 35. Alabama has went Republican in every election but two since 1964 and only once it has gone Democrat. (Carter in 76 and the Independent George Wallace in 68). I just don't see that changing for this one. Could be wrong, but I just don't the state going against the norm in this election.

I don't think Obama's electoral strategy relies on a victory in Bama.

I don't either, but if you would read WinCrimson's post, I was responding to it.

Excuse the heck out of me, I will remember to add his post in a quote the next time!

[WinCrimson 61]

I would be really shocked if Obama carries North Alabama. Especially since announcing that he is wanting to cut the the Aries program and his missile defense cuts he is proposing. He shot himself in the foot with a lot of voters in those counties over that. There is a lot of chatter in town about that. You hear something about it almost everyday at lunch time in the various restaurants and it has a lot of people worried about their jobs. North Alabama hasn't supported the Democratic candidate in a long long time.

When you say that you can see him getting Gore like numbers in Alabama, you do realize that Gore lost Alabama by something like 12 to 14%? The last poll I saw for the state was two weeks ago LINK to the day and it had McCain up 58 to 35. Alabama has went Republican in every election but two since 1964 and only once it has gone Democrat. (Carter in 76 and the Independent George Wallace in 68). I just don't see that changing for this one. Could be wrong, but I just don't the state going against the norm in this election.

I agree. I think that to an extent, you may have misunderstood me.

In 2000, Gore lost Alabama by 15%. Kerry lost it by 25% four years later. If Obama can run strong in the populated areas and landslide the 7th district, Gore's much more respectable numbers are possible. While he has no chance of actually winning the state, I think there is a strong possibility of the GOP margin of victory being whittled down to the 15-20% range.

It's the equivalent of McCain in Vermont. The latest polls show him receiving less than 30%. If he were to pull Gore's Alabama numbers of 42%, it'd be a "win."

It's all relative to the state and its history. Obama does not need Alabama to win and McCain doesn't need Vermont. Stronger than expected showings in those hostile territories, however, my be indicative of the national popular vote.