just for fun

[AustinTiger 0]

I do my own computer ratings just for fun.

Yall aren't going to like our posistion, but there is plenty of time to shake this

up.

The three columns after each team are:

1 composite rating.

2 box-score derived rating

3 win-loss derived rating.

box score ratings is like this:

based on actual box scores, I predict a box score for every possible

game. For each of those games, then I do a non-linear regression

to project an actual score. The box score is # of wins minus the number

of losses projected if that team were to play a 232 game schedule

where they played everybody both home and away.

win-loss rating is much simpler. come up with a simble biased-coin

flip model for a football game. Then just do a best fit (with a conservative

bias towards a .500 record built in). Then project wins and losses so

I'm in the same units as above.

A Florida win over Florida St would IMHO be a huge boost

for our shot at the orange bowl, as far as the computers are concernced.

Tennessee beating Notre Dame would be pretty good too. Notre Dame

is a virtual PAC-10 team due to playing both Stanford and USC.

   1                       USC 212.34 226.00 198.68
   2                 Miami Fla 204.62 218.00 191.24
   3                  Oklahoma 200.16 216.00 184.32
   4                    Auburn 196.66 202.00 191.31
   5                      Utah 195.75 212.00 179.51
   6                California 178.32 226.00 130.64
   7                Florida St 170.66 178.00 163.32
   8                 Texas A&M 169.01 196.00 142.02
   9                 Wisconsin 160.88 148.00 173.75
  10                Arizona St 157.54 160.00 155.09
  11                 Tennessee 153.92 150.00 157.85
  12                  Boise St 149.58 134.00 165.16
  13                     Texas 147.09 156.00 138.18
  14                   Georgia 143.93 160.00 127.86
  15                    Purdue 139.22 146.00 132.44
  16                       LSU 136.47 182.00 90.93
  17                Louisville 135.62 166.00 105.24
  18                  Virginia 131.41 142.00 120.82
  19               Oklahoma St 124.47 130.00 118.94
  20                Notre Dame 123.74 132.00 115.48
  21                  Michigan 115.76 100.00 131.53
  22                  Stanford 113.93 146.00 81.85
  23                Texas Tech 112.30 150.00 74.60
  24            South Carolina 110.24 148.00 72.47
  25                   Alabama 108.30 156.00 60.61

  26                   Florida 105.63 142.00 69.26
  27             West Virginia 92.85 110.00 75.71
  28                  Missouri 92.73 134.00 51.47
  29                       UAB 91.60 56.00 127.19
  30                 Minnesota 90.98 114.00 67.97
  31                  Arkansas 90.48 140.00 40.96
  32                      UCLA 85.19 130.00 40.39
  33                      Navy 83.26 92.00 74.51
  34                      Iowa 82.91 88.00 77.83
  35             Virginia Tech 78.27 94.00 62.54
  36                      UTEP 72.23 76.00 68.45
  37                    Oregon 67.09 132.00 2.19
  38                 Air Force 50.52 94.00 7.04
  39             Washington St 48.30 112.00 -15.41
  40            No Carolina St 44.59 50.00 39.19
  41                   Memphis 43.18 2.00 84.36
  42              Georgia Tech 42.21 44.00 40.42
  43                 Oregon St 39.64 92.00 -12.72
  44                  Nebraska 39.50 34.00 45.00
  45                    Kansas 35.76 82.00 -10.48
  46               Michigan St 30.79 32.00 29.57
  47              Northwestern 28.10 36.00 20.21
  48                       BYU 25.28 26.00 24.57
  49               Connecticut 24.98 34.00 15.96
  50            Louisiana Tech 21.86 -16.00 59.72
  51                New Mexico 20.55 56.00 -14.91
  52                   Ohio St 18.44 10.00 26.88
  53            Boston College 16.70 28.00 5.40
  54                 Fresno St 15.22 42.00 -11.55
  55                   Rutgers 9.86 -38.00 57.73
  56                  Colorado 7.56 -44.00 59.12
  57             Bowling Green 7.35 14.00 0.70
  58             Southern Miss 6.18 -68.00 80.36
  59                   Penn St -0.59 58.00 -59.19
  60              Northern Ill -2.52 -6.00 0.96
  61               Mississippi -3.40 -4.00 -2.80
  62                   Wyoming -12.38 -56.00 31.24
  63                   Troy St -15.76 -18.00 -13.52
  64                   Clemson -16.74 -12.00 -21.47
  65                  Marshall -19.49 -12.00 -26.98
  66                  Syracuse -19.58 -70.00 30.84
  67            North Carolina -20.74 -60.00 18.51
  68                    Toledo -29.17 -76.00 17.66
  69                       TCU -30.07 -56.00 -4.14
  70                Pittsburgh -33.27 -74.00 7.47
  71              San Diego St -34.21 34.00 -102.42
  72                  Maryland -38.46 -54.00 -22.91
  73               Wake Forest -39.60 -40.00 -39.19
  74                   Iowa St -40.03 -24.00 -56.06
  75                Miami Ohio -40.83 -24.00 -57.66
  76                 Kansas St -47.46 -6.00 -88.92
  77                    Hawaii -51.47 -68.00 -34.94
  78                   Houston -58.98 -36.00 -81.97
  79                      Rice -59.35 -82.00 -36.70
  80                   Arizona -60.75 24.00 -145.51
  81                      UNLV -63.07 -58.00 -68.13
  82                Washington -66.77 -22.00 -111.53
  83                  Illinois -74.75 -46.00 -103.51
  84                Cincinnati -78.48 -88.00 -68.96
  85                   Indiana -79.87 -90.00 -69.74
  86                Vanderbilt -81.28 -62.00 -100.57
  87               Colorado St -87.88 -98.00 -77.76
  88                    Baylor -89.99 -114.00 -65.97
  89               Arkansas St -91.54 -106.00 -77.08
  90                      Army -99.73 -128.00 -71.47
  91                      Ohio -103.71 -108.00 -99.41
  92                 UL Monroe -108.99 -120.00 -97.98
  93            Mississippi St -114.31 -128.00 -100.62
  94             New Mexico St -115.41 -178.00 -52.82
  95             South Florida -116.66 -164.00 -69.31
  96               San Jose St -116.83 -128.00 -105.66
  97               North Texas -117.00 -196.00 -38.01
  98                   Utah St -117.53 -152.00 -83.07
  99               Middle Tenn -122.98 -176.00 -69.95
 100                  Kentucky -124.76 -140.00 -109.52
 101              Eastern Mich -127.24 -184.00 -70.47
 102                    Nevada -135.66 -170.00 -101.32
 103                     Akron -138.10 -178.00 -98.20
 104                     Idaho -147.32 -190.00 -104.63
 105                       SMU -147.86 -180.00 -115.72
 106             East Carolina -147.98 -176.00 -119.96
 107                     Tulsa -148.11 -146.00 -150.22
 108              UL Lafayette -152.15 -176.00 -128.31
 109              Central Mich -162.40 -192.00 -132.80
 110                      Duke -172.77 -188.00 -157.53
 111                   Ball St -173.58 -202.00 -145.16
 112                   Kent St -173.82 -158.00 -189.64
 113                    Temple -178.01 -188.00 -168.02
 114                    Tulane -182.32 -196.00 -168.65
 115                   Buffalo -189.99 -206.00 -173.98
 116                       UCF -196.90 -202.00 -191.79
 117              Western Mich -200.75 -214.00 -187.50