TitanTiger 20,515 Posted November 4, 2004 Share Posted November 4, 2004 Back in 2000, Zogby was the man. He was the only major pollster who got the national vote percentages correct and his calls on all the major battleground states were dead on. Rasmussen, a highly respected pollster in his own right had a tough time in 2000. He had Bush with about a 6 point lead going into election day. As we all know that never materialized. Fast forward to 2004. Someone learned from their mistakes and someone made some new ones. Zogby was off. Way off in some cases but Rasmussen was more accurate in almost every instance, dead on in some cases. But often I saw around the web, Rasmussen being discounted as partisan because of 2000 and because he appeared often on Fox. Here's a comparison between he and Rasmussen's polls for the 2004 election: Arizona Zogby had it +6% for Bush Rasmussen had it +5 for Bush Final +11% for Bush Arkansas Zogby had it +3% for Bush Rasmussen had it +7 for Bush Final +9% for Bush Colorado Zogby had it too close to call Rasmussen had it +5 for Bush Final +7% for Bush Florida Zogby had it +.1% for Kerry and trending Kerry Rasmussen had it +5 for Bush Final +5% for Bush Iowa Zogby had it +5% for Kerry Rasmussen had it +2 for Bush Final still TBD, but looks like Bush by 1 or slightly less Michigan Zogby had it +6% for Kerry Rasmussen had it +3 for Kerry Final Result +3% for Kerry Minnesota Zogby had it +6% for Kerry Rasmussen had it tied Final Result +3% for Kerry Missouri Zogby had it +3% for Bush Rasmussen had it +5 for Bush Final Result +8% for Bush Nevada Zogby had it too close to call Rasmussen had it +2 for Bush Final +3% for Bush New Hampshire Zogby had it +5% for Kerry Rasmussen had it +2 for Kerry Final Result +1% for Kerry New Mexico Zogby had it +3% for Kerry Rasmussen had it +4 for Bush Final Result +1 for Bush North Carolina Zogby had it +3% for Bush Rasmussen had it +12 for Bush Final +13% for Bush Oregon Zogby had it +10% for Kerry Rasmussen had it +7 for Kerry Final Result +5% for Kerry Ohio Zogby had it +2% for Bush but trending Kerry Rasmussen had it +4 for Bush Final Result +2 for Bush Pennsylvania Zogby had it tied, trending Kerry Rasmussen had it +3 for Kerry Final Result +3% for Kerry Tennessee Zogby had it +4% for Bush Rasmussen had it +6 for Bush Final +14% for Bush Virginia Zogby had it slight edge for Bush Rasmussen had it +6 for Bush Final +8% for Bush Washington Zogby had it +10% for Kerry Rasmussen had it +8 for Kerry Final Result +7% for Kerry West Virginia Zogby had it +4% for Bush Rasmussen had it +6 for Bush Final +14% for Bush Wisconsin Zogby had it +6% for Kerry Rasmussen had it +1 for Kerry Final Result +1% for Kerry Summary: On straight state calls, regardless of margin Rasmussen went 19-0-1 on these 20 battleground and possible "poachable" states. I gave him a tie on Minnesota because he had it tied and it went for Kerry. Zogby, on straight state calls didn't fare as well. He went 14-3-3. He had the call wrong on Iowa, New Mexico, and Florida. You'll notice that he had all of these called for Kerry and they went for Bush. He did not have any predicted for Bush that went for Kerry. Margin Predictions: The real difference comes when you examine the margins each predicted. Rasmussen was closer to the actual result than Zogby in 16 of the 20 states above. Zogby was closer in only three and in one, they were off by the same margin. Of these 20 states, Rasmussen nailed the margin on four states: Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. And he was within 1 point of the actual margin in five states: Iowa, N. Carolina, Washington, New Hampshire, and Nevada. He was within 2 points on five others: Virginia, Ohio, Oregon, Colorado, and Arkansas. That means Rasmussen was within 2 points in 14 of the 20 states. Talk about accuracy. His worst performances were in West Virginia and Tennessee, where he was off by 8 points in each respectively. The average difference between what Rasmussen called for these states and actual was 2.25 points. Zogby on the other hand nailed only one: Ohio. He wasn't within 1 point on any others. He also wasn't within 2 points on any others. Out of 20 states, Zogby was only within 2 points is one state. That's abyssmal. His worst performances, points wise came in Tennessee, West Virginia, and North Carolina. He was off by 10 points in each of them. But one could argue that his calls on Iowa and Florida were even worse. He was off by 5 points or more in both AND Kerry leading in both. He was off by more than 5 points in Virginia (8), Iowa (6), Colorado (7), and Arkansas (6). The average difference in what Zogby called and the actuals was 5.15 points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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