Best5zach 2 Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 Whew. Some tough criticisms from last weeks prediction. But, I love talking football, even if its disagreements. I posted the full documents in the "blog" section, which has pictures. go check that out. I welcome any and all constructive criticisms. Fresh off my blog, here are my expectations: I can't believe it is week 3 already! And, it is time to open up the SEC season. That's right. Things just got real. The Mississippi State game has come to define many Auburn seasons over the course of my lifetime. I have been to this game more than any other game. And each year, final records aside, this game has almost always been drama filled. So, here we are off a fresh win against Arkansas State. No, the game wasn't as tight as I had expected in my Preview of the Arkansas State Game. My predicted score wasn't close, though the stats were. I gave myself a solid B- in predicting. I also wrapped up my visit to the Plains with the fam. I have a ton more pictures on my FaceBook Page. So, what can we expect from Mississippi State aside from cowbells? That's tough to say. They were soundly beaten by Oklahoma State for their opener and played a very outclassed Alcorn State team last week. The only things that jump out at me are: They have played 3 QBs and all 3 have thrown a pick. Two were thrown against OSU, a team not usually known for great defenses. A dual threat QB, Walsh, gave them all kinds of fits LaDarius Perkins is a fantastic RB. He can beat you up between the tackles and catch the ball out of the backfield So, while I can't speculate with any authority on State, I will do my best with what I know about Auburn. While both sides of the ball really struggled at times, they showed great promise in others. For example, the defense gave up a lot of yards again Saturday, but the goal line was like an iron curtain. Likewise, the offense had it's good drives and it's bad ones. The first and last drives of the first half were gorgeous. But a lot of the stuff in between looked suspect. Lots of holding penalties and the like. To be fair, the flags came out very easily for both sides of the ball on Saturday night, so I'm not sure what to think. You've heard that someone holds on every play...I guess the refs just felt like calling it a little more this week. We finally saw a deep ball connection, though it took several tries to make it work. The running game was quietly excellent. Offense While not fully on the Grant Bandwagon, I do recognize that he is eerily similar in skillset to Onterio McCalebb and used the same way. He might be as fast and he appears to have even better hands. Likewise, McCalebb had good games against State. In 2009, Auburn blasted State and McCalebb wracked up 114 yards on 16 carries with a 48 yard TD. In 2010 he had 70 yards with no TDs in a very tight game. In 2011 again had a solid, yet scoreless game. In 2012, he took a kickoff to the house as the lone highlight in a crushing loss. I expect Grant to have a similar role. While I was optimistic giving him 125 yards and a TD last week, I am going to tempter my expectations of him and say that I expect a McCalebb-ish 70 yards and a TD....though I am waiting on a screen pass instead of a jet sweep. It's worth pointing out that with a guy like Grant, he is one play from posting those numbers. He just didn't have the explosive play Saturday. Maybe I am just downplaying Tre Mason's role. I keep saying that I expect CAP to take his carries, but Tre takes his 15 carries a game and posts decent stats. I have to admit that his cuts against ASU were clean and his speed and elusiveness is hard to ignore. And while I want to give him his due, this game won't be won with an all-purpose back. I expect a pedestrian day for Mason as he prepares for LSU. Before you call me a hater....I said....he prepares for LSU. That will be his game. CAP, on the other hand, will be doing work. Why? I'll get to that in a second, but let's just say that there will be a lot of short yardage situations in this game. I expect 2 TDs on 50-75 yards of rushing. MSU will be expecting the ground game. Wouldn't you? Auburn has legitimately 4 guys who could go 100+ yards each in Mason/CAP/Grant/Marshall. I believe the stacked box will be the order of the day for the MSU defense, which will ultimately be their undoing. With the losses of two high NFL defensive backs from last year, MSU could possibly "reload", but you aren't going to replace Banks and Slay. This is a "rebuild year" in the best of terms. Consider that State lost the very coach who turned those guys into NFL picks in Melvin Smith....now making a head-turning unit with Harbison at Auburn. You can't expect to replace the players AND the coach. OSU showed what will happen to this defensive unit with a mobile QB like Walsh. And while Walsh lit it up again this last week, he is not the runner that Marshall is. I don't believe there is a QB in college football than can run with Marshall. That being said, Auburn won't win with the run...in the simplest of terms. Do I think they will have success? Absolutely. I just gave my predictions on it and I just gave up 3 TDs between Grant and CAP. But I think the game breaker is the play action pass. The new secondary at MSU will get frozen feet at least twice and get torched by the Auburn receivers. The only question to me is: Will Marshall make a semi-accurate pass and will the receivers give 100% effort. Even against ASU, at least one long ball was given up on. It wasn't the best throw, but it should have been catchable. These receivers must learn that Marshall is the most deadly to throw down the field when he is extending plays. It's obvious that this coaching staff wants to go downtown. If they can do it to an appreciable extent, they can blow the doors off this MSU defense. Marshall knows he can run at any point. The coaching staff knows he can run at any point. He could possibly, with help from Mason/CAP/Grant, win the day entirely running....but that won't beat the rest of the SEC-W. I can totally see him running one in, but I think he is being coached heavily to develop his touch and relationship with his receivers. Better to learn it now then try and learn it then. No that I think Marshall is in any way comparable to Cam, but I was questioning Cam's accuracy at this point in 2010. Again, the hidgepoint is...can Auburn establish a versatile running game early? I don't mean between the tackles. I mean, in all phases of the Gus HUNH run game. If they can get the corners up close to the line of scrimmage to stop the jet sweet and swing passes, Marshall will have plenty of opportunity. Since he will be throwing the ball more, I see quick drives down the field that will set up goal line situations for CAP. Marshall has a decent game running, but throws for 200 yards and 2 TDs. Parkey gets a field goal at some point. Possibly the last drive of the half in a 2 minute drill. Defense Still not sold on some aspects of our D-Line. They had trouble containing Kennedy, who led ASU in rushing. Not to worry, though, because Tyler Russell isn't a threat to take off and beat them around the edge. And heaven help him if he meets Therezie in the open.....Of course, that is if Russell plays...since he has been injured. What does bother me is that Russell is a very good pocket passer. He is also tough to bring down. Auburn has shown an inability to crash the pocket. Even if they get there, I am worried about being able to get Russell down before he throws it away, or checks the ball down to Perkins. If they can't get to him at all, it won't matter how much the Auburn secondary has improved. It will be interesting to see how Auburn plays against Perkins. I think the D-line is perfectly suited to stop a power run. I also believe that the LBs are capable of playing well against a down hill back. The only thing that bothers me about Perkins is the same thing that has hurt Auburn the past 2 games, which you can bet Mullen has taken note: The RB checkdown out of the backfield. In the rest of the offense, I don't see the weapons that State needs to beat Auburn. Without a Bumphis-type physical receiver, beating Auburn with the passing game just doesn't seem likely. Though I admit that the stats say that gaining yards in the air against Auburn is possible, it has to be short gains. And, Auburn has proven to be able to keep offenses out of the endzone, even after getting yardage put on them. Their only chance would be out muscling the Auburn secondary, but I don't think they have that man on their roster. Then there are other things to consider. Mullen's record has fallen off since his entry as the MSU coach, and this year won't go any better. I expect MSU to finish dead last in the SEC-W. This game will be close at the end of the 1st quarter. It might be close at halftime. Auburn runs away with a win. The BFZ Game Breaking Moment: A read option play action pass early in the 3rd quarter. After getting beat around the edge by Grant in the first half, further beaten when Marshall pulls the ball and keeps it up the middle a few times, the MSU corners stumble out of the blocks when cheating up on the line of scrimmage and Marshall deep bombs MSU to go up 28-10. BFZ's Player of the Game: This one is easy. By the second half, MSU won't know if Marshall is coming or going. Adam's on the defensive side of the ball will have the opportunity to use his instincts against a pocket passer. He has struggled with mobile passers or passers who flip the ball in the flats. Russell won't run on him and I think he will get a lot of LB help with Perkins. I see a sack in his future...maybe even a QB fumble. Final Score: Auburn 38-State 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jl2426 1 Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 Well since I'm not good at predicting the score, I'll predict penalties. STATE: 8 AUBURN:5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
api52 4 Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 Well done! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Best5zach 2 Posted September 13, 2013 Author Share Posted September 13, 2013 Well since I'm not good at predicting the score, I'll predict penalties. STATE: 8 AUBURN:5 lol. Excellent prediction. I agree. And, I think that's a stat I will start predicting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aucanucktiger 1,805 Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 Less speculative predictions than last week. Good stuff IMO, thanks. My concerns this game are on D. VERY concerned MSU make 5-10 yard passes all day long. Neither our LBs nor D-line have been consistent yet and MSU's O line is better than either Wash St or Arky St. Biggest concern on O is the picks I'm cynically waiting for Nick to throw based on last year. We'll get our yards though...and so will Perkins. AU 21 - 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Best5zach 2 Posted September 13, 2013 Author Share Posted September 13, 2013 Less speculative predictions than last week. Good stuff IMO, thanks. My concerns this game are on D. VERY concerned MSU make 5-10 yard passes all day long. Neither our LBs nor D-line have been consistent yet and MSU's O line is better than either Wash St or Arky St. Biggest concern on O is the picks I'm cynically waiting for Nick to throw based on last year. We'll get our yards though...and so will Perkins. AU 21 - 17 agreed. Marshall showed in the WSU game that he still has very green qb tendencies to force the ball and throw across his body. Last week showed what we waited for in the run game. Can he improvise? Yes. Can he make them miss? Yes. Will he put the ball in the dirt? Yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rbrigby 0 Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 I just don't see thier D, which gave up 286 rushing yards to Okie State, stopping our running game. I hope Marshall continues to progress as a passer and within the Offense as a whole, if so we win easily. Looks to me that Perkins is the key to thier O, he is talanted, fast, and strong. Stop him and they appear to go nowhere fast. WDE!!!! I like you score prediction, similar to what I have in mind! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronMan70 3,277 Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 Zach, I really enjoyed the read. Good job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAU76 398 Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 Yes, please continue to post your previews...don't worry about the poo-poo-ers here, they love to argue with anyone who will listen. I hope your score prediction is correct, I would love to see us take them to the woodshed and see Mullen's seat get a little hotter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lionheartkc 6,150 Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 Good read. I think you did a better job this week of keeping the hyperbole down. I assume that is because, after 2 weeks, you had a lot more facts to work with, so you could build a better case. I think you're spot on with the offense. MSU hasn't been able to defend play action this year, so we run it often, and fast, with the occasional CAP punch in the mouth to keep them on their toes. Then, when they get too many guys in the box, Coates, Davis and crew do their thing. I do expect to see Prosch's role in the flat grow, after last week, too. A couple things I think you missed on D. First... Kris Frost is going to come off the bench, in the second half, on a mission to make up for his mistake. I wouldn't be surprised to see him make some real noise. Second... MSU has shown a propensity to throw the ball away. With our guys in hawk mode, like game 1, I could really see this being another multi-pick game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
logan adams 333 Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 Agree with most of what you said. My predicted score was almost exactly as you stated, except I have auburn winning by 18; 28 - 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dual-Threat Rigby 8,819 Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 I just don't see thier D, which gave up 286 rushing yards to Okie State, stopping our running game. I hope Marshall continues to progress as a passer and within the Offense as a whole, if so we win easily. Looks to me that Perkins is the key to thier O, he is talanted, fast, and strong. Stop him and they appear to go nowhere fast. WDE!!!! I like you score prediction, similar to what I have in mind! Are you trying to take my name Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Best5zach 2 Posted September 13, 2013 Author Share Posted September 13, 2013 Yeah, it's been hard to gauge the teams performance with such little data. I'm still not sure on where the offense is headed. I do like the idea of Frost coming out ready to play. He wants to win the job. But I'm afraid of him "over playing" a la eltoro freeman style. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AUSWEN 0 Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 I think they stack the box, and we run it on them successfully anyway. I don't think it will be as easy as it was with ASU though. Instead of having runs of 10 or 12 and marching right down the field, we will have more 4-5 yard runs and have to string together longer drives. I think we will be successful in this though. I also think we will spread the field with more quick screens than we have seen so far, especially early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravejd 3,272 Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 I think they stack the box, and we run it on them successfully anyway. I don't think it will be as easy as it was with ASU though. Instead of having runs of 10 or 12 and marching right down the field, we will have more 4-5 yard runs and have to string together longer drives. I think we will be successful in this though. I also think we will spread the field with more quick screens than we have seen so far, especially early. Our ability to put together long drives is something that I question. Can Marshall make a few good throws in a row or is it going to be hit and miss with him all year? I recorded the arky st. game and I for one was not impressed with Marshall throwing the ball. He makes some dang good ones every once in a way but he makes some pretty ugly ones as well. I will say that I thought overall he did better game 2 than game 1 so that is always encouraging. My second big concern for this game is Perkins catching balls out of the back field. Hopefully our defense will be keying on Perkins so we won't see any dump offs with no one within 15 yards of him! Good read Zach i enjoyed it.....but then again i enjoy reading anything AU related lol! One thing though....IMO Mason is our best back. Not sure why you think CAP is going to start taking his carries. I love how Mason is able to set defenders and get the edge! Mason = perfect back for our offense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoetTiger 1,901 Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 Speed - Grant Power - Cap Slash - Mason It's enough carries for all of them...it's a great problem to have IMO. Also I know people keep saying this and that about Nick - please please understand he was a gunslinger last year, he had to be. Gus is slowly reprogramming him to go through his progressions and become a more complete QB. Roughly two months on campus, no spring ball, little time to generate chemistry with receivers. He will get better with every game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icanthearyou 4,464 Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 They will stack the box. Marshell will continue to improve and Gus's play calling will frustrate them. The silence of the cowbells will occur with an 3rd quarter Auburn touchdown that puts the game away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Strychnine 1,804 Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 Speed - Grant Power - Cap Slash - Mason It's enough carries for all of them...it's a great problem to have IMO. Also I know people keep saying this and that about Nick - please please understand he was a gunslinger last year, he had to be. Gus is slowly reprogramming him to go through his progressions and become a more complete QB. Roughly two months on campus, no spring ball, little time to generate chemistry with receivers. He will get better with every game. After Gus' stint here as OC, and now as HC, I always find myself thinking "what kind of madness could he have come up with if given that 04 offense". I've liked what I have seen of the usage of all three. Personally, I think the back that gets the most carries will likely be based more on situation and how they've been playing in the actual game at the time. Looking at their stats, CAP and Mason share the same amount of carries, and are only 20 yards apart. Grant actually leads the team in yardage, with less carries, obviously from the bomb he dropped on Wazzou. I suspect Gus loves the "dilemma" that this backfield has given him so far. I can see where people's criticisms of Marshall come from, but I still consider what we've seen of his worst to be much better than I saw last year. Given everything that happened during the offseason, and Nick's late arrival, I have seen absolutely nothing to be disappointed about. He's certainly much more of the real deal than anyone else at the position that we've seen play. He also gives us a true fourth threat in the backfield with that speed he has. Gus isn't stubborn, and tends to craft his offensive plan on what his personnel are great at (2010 being a perfect example of this). I look for passing to be worked on and established more, as well as his mobility being put to use. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Best5zach 2 Posted September 13, 2013 Author Share Posted September 13, 2013 Mason REALLY impressed me last Saturday with his explosiveness. But, eventually you have to give up on finding the edge and getting up the field. CAP can do that. Mason MAY can. I didn't really spell it out in the article, but I fill like how we do inside the 10 will determine the season. Getting there, as ASU showed, can be done easily. Putting up 6 is difficult when you have zero inside presence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronMan70 3,277 Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 The fact that we have 3 quality backs splitting carries is going to pay off more and more as the season wears on, especially in the second half of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doc4aday 1,887 Posted September 14, 2013 Share Posted September 14, 2013 I think I have already predicted the score, but think I need to re-adust my numbers that I think will be far more accurate than my previous pic. AU 49 MSU 13 A blowout with more intensity than the preparation the night before a colonoscopy!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoetTiger 1,901 Posted September 14, 2013 Share Posted September 14, 2013 Mason closed the WSU game out with some solid interior runs.....he can do it if called upon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eagle Eye 7 2,535 Posted September 14, 2013 Share Posted September 14, 2013 Less speculative predictions than last week. Good stuff IMO, thanks. My concerns this game are on D. VERY concerned MSU make 5-10 yard passes all day long. Neither our LBs nor D-line have been consistent yet and MSU's O line is better than either Wash St or Arky St. Biggest concern on O is the picks I'm cynically waiting for Nick to throw based on last year. We'll get our yards though...and so will Perkins. AU 21 - 17 Not picking on you but I think you'll be waiting all year for NM to throw a lot of picks. My only worry with him coming in was if he would take care of the ball. After two games the answer is a resounding "yes". He hasn't thrown a ball yet that was close to being a pick (short of a tipped ball or something). He has over-throwed a couple but if your going to miss that is the way you want to miss. He has shown he is confortable if coverage is good to just pull it down and run. He has also proved his ego is not over-sized. He works the read well and hands off when he should and keeps it when he should. Nick hasn't been the amazing QB that some thought (but it is still early), but what he has been is steady and has made good decissions. He will get better every game along with the rest of these guys. WDE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cole256 17,084 Posted September 14, 2013 Share Posted September 14, 2013 I don't agree with that. I've seen him throw 2 balls that was close to being picks. One an all leaguer come up with one I don't know how the guy didn't pick it. But he made strides from first to second game I expect him to do the same this week as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aupops2 9 Posted September 14, 2013 Share Posted September 14, 2013 I think I have already predicted the score, but think I need to re-adust my numbers that I think will be far more accurate than my previous pic. AU 49 MSU 13 A blowout with more intensity than the preparation the night before a colonoscopy!! Now there's an analogy I can relate to!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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