A note on Alabama's offense

[AU! 0]

AU!, I appreciate the analysis, even if it's skewed by small sample size (3 games). What I'm saying is the Alabama offense has basically proven they can give it to you however you want it.

With the notable exceptions of MSU (which also played a great defensive game against us, by the way) and VaTech, Alabama's offense has been whatever they needed it to be. Passing offense against A&M. Clock-killing soul-destroyer against LSU. Run-dominant homerun hitter against Ole Miss. The key for Alabama's offense is: they are whatever they need to be. It's an adaptable team on both sides of the ball.

They've scored less than 30 twice all season: Ole Miss and MSU. Again, notably, Auburn scored well-below its averages against both of those teams (maybe Ole Miss and MSU are decent defensive teams? just maybe?). Bama's offense can be stopped, but odds are, they're going to score on us. They can run the ball with power like LSU or Arkansas, and if that fails, they can air it out like LSU or Ole Miss or UGA. McCarron isn't Aaron Murray, but frankly, those scrub WRs UGA was playing can't hold a candle to Norwood and Cooper and Jones and White. We're going to see better WRs and lesser QB play. Either way, this is an offense that can take advantage of any flaw in the opposing team. Don't talk yourself into a low scoring game. Odds are, we lose a game played in the 20s.

The sample size is an unfortunate result of any college football season. There are only 12 games total (11 for this mid-season analysis) and when a team has played a weak schedule like Alabama has, there are only 4 good teams to compare to. And one of them is very very good on offense but abysmal on defense, so we're down to 3. Were it that college football could be played all year so many things in my life would be better. ;-)

But I totally agree that we lose a game in the 20's. And I'm not straight up saying that we will be able to outscore them. I have no idea how well Auburn's offense will respond to this game. But I will say that IF Auburn can put up 30, we will win this game. Putting up 30 will require clock control and a lack of turnovers which are key to taking down Alabama. Their offense can't move fast enough to overcome an opposing offense that doesn't turn over the ball.

I still can't credit Alabama for throwing against A&M. You might as well credit Auburn for running against Tennessee. But you make a great point in that Alabama crushed LSU on the ground. It's one of two things they've done all season that really impresses me (the other being shutting out Ole Miss). But the one thing that gives me hope about that is that they haven't done it on the road.

Alabama's had 3 road games all season, A&M, Kentucky and Miss State. They escaped with close wins against A&M and Miss State. Miss State is the only defense that they've played on the road that gives up fewer than 30 ppg. Or, to even go FHeal's route on this one. Miss State is the only team they've played on the road that gives up fewer than 400 ypg. (Auburn is sitting at 406).

I can't say that they CAN'T put up strong numbers on the road against decent opposition, but I can say that they have had the opportunity once and they failed to do so. Take that how you will.

[rbrigby 0]

If we run the football effectively and don't have turnovers I think we win. Alabama is adequate on Offense but they put most of thier points up after turnovers or special teams plays (ie. short field). I am not sure we can run but I sure hope we can, we have run on everybody so I'm not doubting this team now. As everyone has said, we need to stop Benedict Yeldon and pressure macaroon (spelling intentional) to win. I have been calling for an AU upset all year and I'm not changing my story now. As StatTiger has pointed out in previous post, we need to run more than 40 times to win and this requires success on the ground. I'll be screaming the entire game and Sabear and macaroon will know they are girls by the end of the game, even if I'm the only one telling them so. War Eagle and let's kick some turds in the butt!

[AUbritt 611]

If we run the football effectively and don't have turnovers I think we win. Alabama is adequate on Offense but they put most of thier points up after turnovers or special teams plays (ie. short field). I am not sure we can run but I sure hope we can, we have run on everybody so I'm not doubting this team now. As everyone has said, we need to stop Benedict Yeldon and pressure macaroon (spelling intentional) to win. I have been calling for an AU upset all year and I'm not changing my story now. As StatTiger has pointed out in previous post, we need to run more than 40 times to win and this requires success on the ground. I'll be screaming the entire game and Sabear and macaroon will know they are girls by the end of the game, even if I'm the only one telling them so. War Eagle and let's kick some turds in the butt!

No reason to insult the ladies. I'd be satisfied if Bama know they are beaten.

[BamaGrad03 0]

Against common opponents, Alabama scores +11 above what that opponent allows defensively. Auburn scores +7. There's no amount of statistical gymnastics that can convince me that Alabama doesn't have a fantastic offense. Especially when we play in the same conference.

Our conference schedules only differ by Kentucky and UGA. UGA gives up nearly 30ppg and ranks 78th in scoring (UK gives up 2.5ppg more than UGA).

Against offenses ranked anywhere near Alabama's (A&M, LSU, UGA) Auburn is allowing 38 ppg. And Auburn only holds offenses to -3 below their scoring average. Bama averages 40ppg.

Does that mean Alabama is going to light up the scoreboard against Auburn? No. But the statistics in favor of Alabama having a good offense far outweigh the ones that don't.

[ALTiger 16]

Quick question...has Alabama faced a top 20 rushing team this year? Reason i ask is, it's easy being top rated run defense against teams that do not/can't run the ball. I honestly do not know the answer to the question so i was just trying to get some insight.

[rbrigby 0]

If we run the football effectively and don't have turnovers I think we win. Alabama is adequate on Offense but they put most of thier points up after turnovers or special teams plays (ie. short field). I am not sure we can run but I sure hope we can, we have run on everybody so I'm not doubting this team now. As everyone has said, we need to stop Benedict Yeldon and pressure macaroon (spelling intentional) to win. I have been calling for an AU upset all year and I'm not changing my story now. As StatTiger has pointed out in previous post, we need to run more than 40 times to win and this requires success on the ground. I'll be screaming the entire game and Sabear and macaroon will know they are girls by the end of the game, even if I'm the only one telling them so. War Eagle and let's kick some turds in the butt!

No reason to insult the ladies. I'd be satisfied if Bama know they are beaten.

Let's be realistic, Bama never admits when it is beaten. There is always an excuse or someone cheated. I tone it down for AU games, refrain from profanity due to the presence of small children, I don't bring the full Super Dome gameday experience to JHS for that reason, that and the SEC doesn't permit the purchase of beer in the stadiums! Give'm Hell Boys and the bama grad just said the wildcats are as good as UGA, ha!

[AU! 0]

In terms of yards per game, the best team Alabama has faced is Arkansas, ranked 26 at 211.1 yards per game. In terms of YPC, it's still Arkansas, ranked 20 with 5.28. For the record, Auburn has 6.41 ypc for 320.3 ypg.

[mcgufcm 4,107]

I'm actually closer to BG's position on this than the Auburn hardline. I've said from the jump, the comparables are UGA and LSU. The number for Auburn isn't 30. It's 35. We've either got to shoot the moon and play, by far, our best defensive game of the year or we've got to score 35+.

Going into A&M, I thought the number was 40. Going into UGA, I thought it was 35. There's just no evidence that we can stop a multi-dimensional offense like the one we're about to play. We can get stops here and there. We can outlast them and make key plays in the fourth, but the offense is going to have to score enough to make that matter. We need to be on the plus side of 35.

[BamaGrad03 0]

In terms of yards per game, the best team Alabama has faced is Arkansas, ranked 26 at 211.1 yards per game. In terms of YPC, it's still Arkansas, ranked 20 with 5.28. For the record, Auburn has 6.41 ypc for 320.3 ypg.

And I'm sure you'll score more than 0 like Arkansas did against us.

I'm actually closer to BG's position on this than the Auburn hardline. I've said from the jump, the comparables are UGA and LSU. The number for Auburn isn't 30. It's 35. We've either got to shoot the moon and play, by far, our best defensive game of the year or we've got to score 35+.

Going into A&M, I thought the number was 40. Going into UGA, I thought it was 35. There's just no evidence that we can stop a multi-dimensional offense like the one we're about to play. We can get stops here and there. We can outlast them and make key plays in the fourth, but the offense is going to have to score enough to make that matter. We need to be on the plus side of 35.

The question is how do you play that defensively if you're Auburn? Do you absolutely sell out to stop one facet? Do you try to keep playing the yardage game and hope to stay strong in the red zone where you've been all year?

I think the 2nd strategy actually plays more into what Auburn will try to do Saturday - shorten the game. If Bama puts up a ton of yards, but has to get field goals, it's what Auburn needs. A shortened game benefits Auburn and they know it. They'll try the opposite of what Oregon did against Stanford. Oregon's quick attack bit them in the ass against Stanford.

[doc4aday 1,887]

I do not think that bammer had an off game against MSU whatsoever. I think MSU found some weaknesses in bammer's offense and defense, and exploited them as best as they could to make it a ball game. MSU did not have enough of talent to take advantage of bammer's weaknesses to the point of victory. On the other hand, we have the talent and skills on both sides of the ball to win. I feel good about our chances, very good indeed. I honestly think that the bammer team, Saban, and the bammer coaching staff have no idea of what they are up against. With Gus having 2 weeks to study and plan for this game, it is scary good as to what most likely will happen.

[AUbritt 611]

Bama averages 39 points per game on the road in the SEC.

In Jordan-Hare, Auburn holds SEC opponents to just 1 point below their scoring average against SEC opponents.

Overall, we are allowing teams to score essentially their average against SEC opponents.

In Jordan-Hare, the Auburn offense scores an average of 32 points per game against SEC opponents.

If we expect to win the game, we will have to have some combination of scoring more than our average or holding Bama well under theirs.

I think we will score right around our average, maybe a bit below: 30.

I think our defense will rise to the occasion, holding Bama to 27.

Whatever the score, I just want to win, baby! Beat Bama!

[AUbritt 611]

In terms of yards per game, the best team Alabama has faced is Arkansas, ranked 26 at 211.1 yards per game. In terms of YPC, it's still Arkansas, ranked 20 with 5.28. For the record, Auburn has 6.41 ypc for 320.3 ypg.

And I'm sure you'll score more than 0 like Arkansas did against us.

Yep. Count on it.

[AUbritt 611]

If we run the football effectively and don't have turnovers I think we win. Alabama is adequate on Offense but they put most of thier points up after turnovers or special teams plays (ie. short field). I am not sure we can run but I sure hope we can, we have run on everybody so I'm not doubting this team now. As everyone has said, we need to stop Benedict Yeldon and pressure macaroon (spelling intentional) to win. I have been calling for an AU upset all year and I'm not changing my story now. As StatTiger has pointed out in previous post, we need to run more than 40 times to win and this requires success on the ground. I'll be screaming the entire game and Sabear and macaroon will know they are girls by the end of the game, even if I'm the only one telling them so. War Eagle and let's kick some turds in the butt!

No reason to insult the ladies. I'd be satisfied if Bama know they are beaten.

Let's be realistic, Bama never admits when it is beaten. There is always an excuse or someone cheated. I tone it down for AU games, refrain from profanity due to the presence of small children, I don't bring the full Super Dome gameday experience to JHS for that reason, that and the SEC doesn't permit the purchase of beer in the stadiums! Give'm Hell Boys and the bama grad just said the wildcats are as good as UGA, ha!

They don't have to admit it. They just need to know it.

[au1duke 12]

Most bammers never take responsibility for their own actions. Their is always an excuse for why they lost.

[mcgufcm 4,107]

Absolutely true. Biggest excuse makers I've ever been around. Multiple Bammer uncles (one that actually part of the 15%! good for him!) and all of them are full of crap when it comes to discussing past losses. The 2011 LSU loss was probably the most galling in recent memory, but a personal favorite: we only lost the 2010 Iron Bowl because Mark Barron had an injured shoulder. You have to love them (or loathe them... tough to decide).

As for how Auburn defends Bama, that's an easy answer. The same way we've defended everyone, all season. The CBs will be in man coverage without consistent Safety help over the top, and we'll have 7-man fronts almost every down. We struggle far more with physical running games than we do with any other offensive attack so the first focus has to be on stopping the run. We're more comfortable with Davis, Mincy, Jones, Therezie, White and Whitehead in single coverage than we are with defending the run with 5 or 6-man fronts. This game will be about execution. Not scheme. When it comes to our defensive approach, there will be nothing new under the sun.

The difference comes in how aggressive our defense plays, how well we tackle early, and whether we can make a key play here or there. It's not going to be lock down defense all the sudden. If we can force a turnover or a few extra stops here or there, that's a "win" from the defensive side of the ball. As it has been all year, the offense has to make those wins (the FG attempt instead of the touchdown, the random 3 and out, the odd turnover) matter.

[BamaGrad03 0]

Absolutely true. Biggest excuse makers I've ever been around. Multiple Bammer uncles (one that actually part of the 15%! good for him!) and all of them are full of crap when it comes to discussing past losses. The 2011 LSU loss was probably the most galling in recent memory, but a personal favorite: we only lost the 2010 Iron Bowl because Mark Barron had an injured shoulder. You have to love them (or loathe them... tough to decide).

You should stroll through the rivals forum and see all the excuses you guys make for us winning. Including teams 'buying into the myth' in a 52-0 loss...

As for how Auburn defends Bama, that's an easy answer. The same way we've defended everyone, all season. The CBs will be in man coverage without consistent Safety help over the top, and we'll have 7-man fronts almost every down. We struggle far more with physical running games than we do with any other offensive attack so the first focus has to be on stopping the run. We're more comfortable with Davis, Mincy, Jones, Therezie, White and Whitehead in single coverage than we are with defending the run with 5 or 6-man fronts. This game will be about execution. Not scheme. When it comes to our defensive approach, there will be nothing new under the sun.

How often will they show an 8 or 9 men in the box look? Facing double TEs, will they walk the safeties up a lot?

Do you think there will be more blitzing? Less blitzing? Same?

[weagle weagle wde 0]

The one thing I think Alabama and McCarron do well is adjust to the looks they are given by calling audibles... This means we as fans need to BRING OUR LUNGS to the game and help out in whatever way we can

There is no doubt that both Auburn and Alabama can score lots of points.

Let's just score more than them.

WDE

[BamaGrad03 0]

The one thing I think Alabama and McCarron do well is adjust to the looks they are given by calling audibles... This means we as fans need to BRING OUR LUNGS to the game and help out in whatever way we can

There is no doubt that both Auburn and Alabama can score lots of points.

Let's just score more than them.

WDE

One thing I doubt JHS will be lacking Saturday is volume.

[Tigerswde! 0]

Absolutely true. Biggest excuse makers I've ever been around. Multiple Bammer uncles (one that actually part of the 15%! good for him!) and all of them are full of crap when it comes to discussing past losses. The 2011 LSU loss was probably the most galling in recent memory, but a personal favorite: we only lost the 2010 Iron Bowl because Mark Barron had an injured shoulder. You have to love them (or loathe them... tough to decide).

You should stroll through the rivals forum and see all the excuses you guys make for us winning. Including teams 'buying into the myth' in a 52-0 loss...

As for how Auburn defends Bama, that's an easy answer. The same way we've defended everyone, all season. The CBs will be in man coverage without consistent Safety help over the top, and we'll have 7-man fronts almost every down. We struggle far more with physical running games than we do with any other offensive attack so the first focus has to be on stopping the run. We're more comfortable with Davis, Mincy, Jones, Therezie, White and Whitehead in single coverage than we are with defending the run with 5 or 6-man fronts. This game will be about execution. Not scheme. When it comes to our defensive approach, there will be nothing new under the sun.

How often will they show an 8 or 9 men in the box look? Facing double TEs, will they walk the safeties up a lot?

Do you think there will be more blitzing? Less blitzing? Same?

Settle down Brandon.

[AURaptor 1,129]

On O, I think ua-t does well what AU's D hasn't been able to do well all season long.

On Offense, I have to believe Gus has some plays up his sleeve that'll have saban stompin' mad. However, on D, I think AU will have to not only play its best game, but get a prayer or 2 answered, in the form of a pick 6, huge fumble / muffed punt, or something big.

[WarTim 3,457]

In terms of yards per game, the best team Alabama has faced is Arkansas, ranked 26 at 211.1 yards per game. In terms of YPC, it's still Arkansas, ranked 20 with 5.28. For the record, Auburn has 6.41 ypc for 320.3 ypg.

. Bg...watch the language or you will be history

And I'm sure you'll score more than 0 like Arkansas did against us. ;)/>

I'm actually closer to BG's position on this than the Auburn hardline. I've said from the jump, the comparables are UGA and LSU. The number for Auburn isn't 30. It's 35. We've either got to shoot the moon and play, by far, our best defensive game of the year or we've got to score 35+.

Going into A&M, I thought the number was 40. Going into UGA, I thought it was 35. There's just no evidence that we can stop a multi-dimensional offense like the one we're about to play. We can get stops here and there. We can outlast them and make key plays in the fourth, but the offense is going to have to score enough to make that matter. We need to be on the plus side of 35.

The question is how do you play that defensively if you're Auburn? Do you absolutely sell out to stop one facet? Do you try to keep playing the yardage game and hope to stay strong in the red zone where you've been all year?

I think the 2nd strategy actually plays more into what Auburn will try to do Saturday - shorten the game. If Bama puts up a ton of yards, but has to get field goals, it's what Auburn needs. A shortened game benefits Auburn and they know it. They'll try the opposite of what Oregon did against Stanford. Oregon's quick attack bit them in the ...against Stanford.

[aubfaninga 16]

In terms of yards per game, the best team Alabama has faced is Arkansas, ranked 26 at 211.1 yards per game. In terms of YPC, it's still Arkansas, ranked 20 with 5.28. For the record, Auburn has 6.41 ypc for 320.3 ypg.

. Bg...watch the language or you will be history

And I'm sure you'll score more than 0 like Arkansas did against us. ;)/>

I'm actually closer to BG's position on this than the Auburn hardline. I've said from the jump, the comparables are UGA and LSU. The number for Auburn isn't 30. It's 35. We've either got to shoot the moon and play, by far, our best defensive game of the year or we've got to score 35+.

Going into A&M, I thought the number was 40. Going into UGA, I thought it was 35. There's just no evidence that we can stop a multi-dimensional offense like the one we're about to play. We can get stops here and there. We can outlast them and make key plays in the fourth, but the offense is going to have to score enough to make that matter. We need to be on the plus side of 35.

The question is how do you play that defensively if you're Auburn? Do you absolutely sell out to stop one facet? Do you try to keep playing the yardage game and hope to stay strong in the red zone where you've been all year?

I think the 2nd strategy actually plays more into what Auburn will try to do Saturday - shorten the game. If Bama puts up a ton of yards, but has to get field goals, it's what Auburn needs. A shortened game benefits Auburn and they know it. They'll try the opposite of what Oregon did against Stanford. Oregon's quick attack bit them in the ...against Stanford.

??????????

Was this sarcasm or serious? I must have missed the language

[aubfaninga 16]

How often will they show an 8 or 9 men in the box look? Facing double TEs, will they walk the safeties up a lot?

Do you think there will be more blitzing? Less blitzing? Same?

8 or 9 in the box? Not too often unless bammer starts steam rolling.

Safeties.... and or blitzing? Something tells me that Ellis will blitz more than we are accustomed to seeing this year. I am going to go on a limb and say we send Nova M. alot Saturday. Let him be an athlete and hopefully give Ford and Lawson a little extra help with his presence.

[Randman5000 4,235]

Agree with all of the comments. Our defense will be the key to this game, not the offense that everyone is talking about. We will put some drives together...but our defense has scared me at times. Our line has to put the pressure on the pocket to force throws, overthrows or just bad throws. And then our linebackers...lord help the linebackers...need to fill those holes for the run game. (think LSU some of second half) Our pass defense is just plain spotty at times so our defensive line stepping up will be a big key. Beat Bama!

[macauburn 6]

I'll go ahead and disagree with you. This offense compares well with LSU and UGA. They're brutally efficient. They showed in the A&M game that they can win a game with the pass, and they showed in the LSU game that they can still just take a game over with the run and completely take the air out of the opponent. This is a good offense. I suspect we're looking at 35+ just like we've seen against every high end offense we've seen this year (LSU 35, A&M 41, UGA 38). Our offense is going to have to score.

The A&M game is an unfair comparison. First because A&M's defense is terrible and secondly because A&M's offense is a large part of their defense.

I was starting to believe the argument that Alabama is able to score early and then play more conservative until I looked at their scoring by quarter. Here are the teams that Alabama has been able to score early against and then get conservative (i'm defining this as games in which Alabama was winning by 2+ touchdowns at halftime): VT, A&M (although they had to turn it back on in the 4th), Colorado St., Georgia State, Kentucky, Arkansas, Tennessee, and Chattanooga. With the exception of Virginia Tech, none of those teams were a part of my original analysis. What remains is every team with a defense allowing no more than 30 points per game. And none of those defenses are ranked higher than auburn in scoring defense. In fact, with Alabama scoring an average of 27.6 points per game against those teams, my point still stands that the key for Auburn in this game will be to score 30+ points.

Of note, Alabama has had 18 second half possessions in games where they did not lead by at least 14 at the half. Of those possessions, 5 of them ended in points. That's only 28%. For the record, 2 of those games were in Tuscaloosa and one was away (at Miss State).

So to wrap this all up with a bow:

• Alabama does not take big leads against teams with at least a mediocre defense
  
• Alabama does not play well in the second half in games against teams with at least a mediocre defense
  
• Auburn will be the best defense Alabama has faced since their opening week (and even that might be more a function of playing in the ACC, VT has not played Clemson or FSU)
  
• The numbers show that Alabama will not score 30 points in this game, in fact, to speculate the added advantage of Auburn's defense playing in Jordan-Hare, I would go so far as to say that Auburn will hold Alabama to 24 offensive points on Saturday.
  

Of course, all of this goes out the window if our offense can't perform. If we turn the ball over or make other costly mistakes, this game will get ugly fast. The key on offense will be to hit them hard on the ground and keep the game close in the first half. If that happens, crowd noise will combine with the pressure to gain a late lead and pressure from Auburn's front 7 in the second half to keep Bama's offense in check.

The crowd noise won the Georgia game ( well sorta). I almost felt sorry for Georgia's O-line, they kept jumping offsides. It made a big difference in the game, those first and 15's were hard to make. So, the crowd noise will be critical again, I believe the crowd noise will rattle the bammers. Our defense will do the rest. I hope the crowd makes one helluva noise. It also will prevent McCarrot from doing his game management skills that the bammers always rage about. When we get them in a first and 15 situation, the defense will pin their ears back and chase em down. Mucho Sacko. War Eagle!