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Top Playoff Contenders and Auburn's Chances


AUTigers910

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Fortunately for our chances, the media is doing for 2016 Bama what it did for Nebraska in '83 - portraying them as utterly unbeatable. We may get the crazy illogical Miami poll leap therefore if we run the table and win the Iron bowl. Although it won't be on our home field, unlike Miami. 

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1 hour ago, wareagle13 said:

So work with me for a second here. There is a potential scenario that could occur going into the last weekend of the year. If a rejuvenated LSU takes down Bama at home, and bama, auburn, and tamu win out, then the last week would feature 6-1 Auburn versus 6-1 bama, and 6-1 LSU versus 6-1 TAMU. If that were to happen each combination of wins would generate a different SEC west champion.

AU and LSU win, auburn is in
AU and TAMU win, TAMU is in
Bama and LSU win, LSU is in
BAMA and TAMU win, Bama is in

If that were to unfold, the final weekend of the regular season could be the most chaotically impactful final weekend in the history of the SEC. Part of me wants to see it happen, but another part of me wishes that our fate wouldn't rely on another team losing, so preferably TAMU could come in at 5-2 but i don't see their second loss until possibly LSU.

I admit to a selfish wishfulness. I have reserved it for this thread.

At risk of publicly displaying how truly clueless I am, LSU does not need to beat UA (nor should they be expected to). Besides, that alone wouldn’t help us much. Even if we won out, we’d still be in a one-loss tie with TAMU, and they already beat us as many times as they could this year.

If, however, a rejuvenated LSU were to beat TAMU, and (of course) if we also win out, that would put us in, at worst, a three-way one-loss tie (with LSU and/or UA) that we would (to my understanding) win in the 1st round (head-to-head) tie-breaker for the West. This scenario, of course, would also create your “…chaotically impactful final weekend…,” and would “rely on another team.”

 

“If wishes were horses, beggars would ride.”

In all other threads, I revert to my typical “Beat (the next team).” In all reality, it’s all that can be done. I’m already happy as a clam with the remarkable turnaround this team has produced thus far, and look forward to seeing it continue to develop.

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8 minutes ago, AUinTLoosa said:

 

I admit to a selfish wishfulness. I have reserved it for this thread.

At risk of publicly displaying how truly clueless I am, LSU does not need to beat UA (nor should they be expected to). Besides, that alone wouldn’t help us much. Even if we won out, we’d still be in a one-loss tie with TAMU, and they already beat us as many times as they could this year.

If, however, a rejuvenated LSU were to beat TAMU, and (of course) if we also win out, that would put us in, at worst, a three-way one-loss tie (with LSU and/or UA) that we would (to my understanding) win in the 1st round (head-to-head) tie-breaker for the West. This scenario, of course, would also create your “…chaotically impactful final weekend…,” and would “rely on another team.”

 

 

 

“If wishes were horses, beggars would ride.”

In all other threads, I revert to my typical “Beat (the next team).” In all reality, it’s all that can be done. I’m already happy as a clam with the remarkable turnaround this team has produced thus far, and look forward to seeing it continue to develop.

 

I understand what you're getting at. My post was merely pointing out a potentially amazing scenario that was still in play. No, LSU does not need to beat bama to influence our ability to get to the SEC championship. But TAMU does need to lose one more, regardless of who it is they lose to. Where that loss comes from? My only guess would be LSU or maybe an ole miss squad playing with its hair on fire. 

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I think it will come down to us and Baylor in the Championship game- with Rhett & Kendall Briles battling to see who is our Offensive Coordinator next season. (sarcasm)

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17 hours ago, WinningTradition said:

If Auburn wins out with 2 losses and wins the SEC we will not be left out of the playoffs. No way that happens. Some one loss teams will be pissed off.

We wouldn't be if we were Alabama, LSU, or Georgia. We are Auburn, so I wouldn't bet on it. We have been left out before. Does any one think that if that had been Alabama in 2004, they get left out? No Way.

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17 minutes ago, Eagle-1 said:

We wouldn't be if we were Alabama, LSU, or Georgia. We are Auburn, so I wouldn't bet on it. We have been left out before. Does any one think that if that had been Alabama in 2004, they get left out? No Way.

Can't "like" it, but 

can't disagree.

WDE

 

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11 hours ago, countoff said:

If A&M, Bama, and Auburn all have one loss to each other, who goes to SEC championship?

Higher rankings wins out, if were 8-9 and beat Bama, we would likely move to 3 with bama 4 if its close game. It's gonna be interesting cause I think we have 3 undefeated at the end, Washington, A Big 10 and Clemson. Which likely puts us 4th and bama 5th. Now if one of them lose, look for us and Bama to likely get in over any one loss imo.

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38 minutes ago, ScottsboroAuburnFan said:

Higher rankings wins out, if were 8-9 and beat Bama, we would likely move to 3 with bama 4 if its close game. It's gonna be interesting cause I think we have 3 undefeated at the end, Washington, A Big 10 and Clemson. Which likely puts us 4th and bama 5th. Now if one of them lose, look for us and Bama to likely get in over any one loss imo.

Just my opinion but lousiville at 11-1 might get pulled in ahead of us at 11-2. Emphasis on might, that's assuming 13-0 washington, 13-0 clemson, 13-0 Michigan (don't see nebraska winning out). The bubble teams will be 11-1 louisville, 11-2 auburn (SEC champ), 11-1 bama, and the winner of the big 12 which could be undefeated but the conference looks really weak.  

It will be a tough choice if big 12 conference winner is not undefeated, if they are I think they get the nod, if not then who do you go with? Take the team who legitimately looked bad at the beginning of the season but turned it around, reward the team that looked dominant in all games and lost a heartbreaker on the road to an undefeated conference foe, or the team that has looked like the best team all year and lost a heartbreaker at home to in-state rival in the best rivalry in football? To me, i see the committee taking the easy way out as it would be damn near impossible to pick between bama and auburn (my own bias not with standing) and going with lousiville. 

Edit to add:

Ohio state could knock off michigan and then you could also throw 12-1 OSU and 11-1 michigan into the bubble teams, assuming they get through their championship games.

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I'm not yet convinced Washington will run the table. And if they slip up even once, I could see a 2-loss SEC champ jumping Washington as a 1-loss champ given that the Pac-12 isn't looking great this year with Stanford, Oregon, UCLA, and USC all looking fairly pedestrian.

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