Auburn-Georgia Score Predictions

[TIGGR82 4]

With the injuries still to take into account this is harder to call. I have faith in our coaches and players though. We withstand their early home momentum and put them away early 4th quarter.

 

Auburn 34

ThUGa 20

[AUDynasty 585]

47 minutes ago, logan adams said:

You and @WarDamnEagleWDE need to give me some of that Kool-Aid! I'm very nervous for this game!

I believe we will play inspired football. The Vanderbilt game was the game we needed to send our underclassmen a lesson not to take anything lightly. This is the winningest streak this group of Auburn Men has experienced in a long time, and I think we needed a dose of reality to send us back to Earth. Any team, including Vanderbilt, can beat us when we are not giving our best. I think they had learned a major lesson. This Saturday, we will play our best, and in as strange way, we HAVE to, especially with KJ and KP nursing injuries. 

[lionheartkc 6,150]

I think we win comfortably IF two things happen.  First, the zebras can't be too involved or one sided.  Second, Georgia can't take out Sean or Kerryon... which I honestly wouldn't put it past them to try.

Otherwise, Georgia's coming off of a hard fought battle with Kentucky (yes... you read that right, Kentucky) that they barely won, and we had our wake-up call last weekend. I think the D has a serious chip on their shoulder and Sean/Daniel are all we need to cruise. 

[Harp_AU2013 221]

AU-24 Pups-10

[AUpreacherman22 3,899]

1 hour ago, WarDamnEagleWDE said:

You know I am.   Just have a feeling on this one. 

I hope your feeling is right.  I don't share that same optimistic feeling YET.

My concern is that if we sit KP and KJ isn't close to 100%, I don't have much confidence in our run game.  Can SW win it with his arm? Even if his arm isn't 100%?

In spite of a strong 2nd half in both games, I feel like our D has regressed a little these last 2 weeks, especially the pass D. (A big part of that is the fact CK and the Vandy kid both played very well!)

Also, it just seems like we almost always get UGA's best game of the year.  (see Chad Kelly and Vandy this year)

I will be happy with a win regardless of what it looks like.  

We need to be firing on all cylinders when we go to turdtown!

[Aueagle7 6]

I think AU can exploit the dogs thru the air this week, which will in turn open up the run game.  Our run game vs their rush D is strength on strength.  However, they are below average in defending the pass game and White has shown to be very efficient.  I think AU's D matches up very well with the dog O.  Eason is not going to run, and their backs will be running into our strength.  We should be able to harass Eason all afternoon and should force him into mistakes.  On the year the dogs have punted almost twice as many times as we have (49-26), and obviously Carlson is advantage AU.  I am going to call it:  AU 31 to UGA 17.  Stat breakdown below (note, while uga leads in categories they have a slight advantage in sacks; and int's, fumbles, total turnovers are mostly dead even).  I think we get a very balanced yardage breakdown of a little over 200 yds on the ground and a little over 200 yds thru the air.  Important to note our yards per pass play advantage of 6.85 to 5.6.  We should be able to hold them to around 100 - 125 yds on the ground with around 200 in the air.  WDE!!

	AU O	Avg	UGA D	Advantage	AU D	Avg	UGA O
Run Plays	51.1	41.35	31.6	AU	31.7	34.45	37.2
Run Yards	295.1	207.9	120.7	AU	127.6	154	180.4
YPRP	6	5.15	4.3	AU	4.5	4.85	5.2
Pass Comp	15.1	16.05	17	UGA	20.9	18.9	16.9
Pass Att	22.1	25.15	28.2	UGA	36.3	33.85	31.4
Comp %	68.3	64.25	60.2	AU	57.5	55.6	53.7
Pass Yds	194.3	197.45	200.6	UGA	230.4	215.75	201.1
Sacks	1.7	1.9	2.1	AU	2.2	2.15	2.1
Sack Yds	13.4	14.35	15.3	UGA	13.9	12.95	12
Sack %	7	7	7	UGA	5.8	6.05	6.3
Pass Plays	23.8	27.05	30.3	UGA	38.6	36.1	33.6
Net Pass Yds	180.9	183.05	185.2	UGA	216.6	202.85	189.1
YPPP	7.6	6.85	6.1	AU	5.6	5.6	5.6
Total Plays	74.9	68.4	61.9	UGA	70.2	70.5	70.8
Total Yds	489.4	405.3	321.2	AU	358	369.8	381.6
YPPL	6.5	5.85	5.2	AU	5.1	5.25	5.4
Int	0.3	0.7	1.1	UGA	0.7	0.65	0.6
Int %	1.5	2.7	3.9	UGA	1.8	1.8	1.8
Fumbles	0.8	0.85	0.9	UGA	0.7	0.8	0.9
Turnovers	1.1	1.55	2	UGA	1.3	1.4	1.5
Points	34.8	30.35	25.9	AU	16	19.85	23.7
		AU				UGA
Catagories Won		9				12
		AU				UGA
Score		31				17

[AUatHeart 626]

AU 31

UGA 17

[lionheartkc 6,150]

1 hour ago, Aueagle7 said:

I am going to call it:  AU 31 to UGA 17.  Stat breakdown below (note, while uga leads in categories they have a slight advantage in sacks; and int's, fumbles, total turnovers are mostly dead even).  I think we get a very balanced yardage breakdown of a little over 200 yds on the ground and a little over 200 yds thru the air.  Important to note our yards per pass play advantage of 6.85 to 5.6.  We should be able to hold them to around 100 - 125 yds on the ground with around 200 in the air.  WDE!!

Here are some other useful bits of info... we played 2 identical opponents...

Vandy

Auburn: 115 yards passing with Sean out for a half, 271 yards rushing vs 221 passing and 120 rushing by Vandy.  Auburn wins 23-16

Georgia:346 yards passing, 75 yards rushing vs. 109 passing and 62 rushing by Vandy.  Georgia loses 17-16

 

Ole Miss

Auburn: 247 yards passing and 307 yards rushing vs 465 yards passing and 105 yards rushing for Ole Miss.  Auburn wins 40-29

Georgia: 330 yards passing and 180 yards rushing vs 166 yards passing and 230 yards rushing by Ole Miss.  Georgia loses 45-14 (note: Kelly sat out the 4th quarter)

 

What that tells me is that Georgia's rushing D may not be as stout as their overall numbers indicate. Their passing offense is solid... rushing... not as much. The big lesson is that they don't know how to put it in the end zone or defend theirs.  The discrepancy in yards between are two opponents is negligible, they had more yards against Vandy and we had more against Ole Miss, but we scored 7 more against Vandy and a whopping 26 more against Ole Miss. More telling is that we allowed more yards against us in both games, but held Vandy to 1 fewer point and Ole Miss to 16 fewer points.

The difference in our teams appears to be a combination of not giving up the big play and red zone defense, we do both a lot better, and putting the ball in the end zone or through the uprights... we do it more efficiently. 

[looney 794]

1 hour ago, lionheartkc said:

Otherwise, Georgia's coming off of a hard fought battle with Kentucky (yes... you read that right, Kentucky) that they barely won, and we had our wake-up call last weekend. 

I'm really not trying to pick on you, lionheart - honesly asking why you phrased it this way. Couldn't it just as easily be "Auburn is coming off a hard fought battle with Vandy (yes... you read that right, Vandy) that they barely won, and Georgia had their wake-up call last weekend"?

Again - I'm not being antagonistic... it just kind of sounded funny to me.

The Georgia game always scares me, regardless of the records. @WarDamnEagleWDE has an optimism I haven't seen from him in quite a while, though, and @McLoofusdid a lot to convince me my nervous memories of past mediocre Dawg squads playing up to better Auburn teams may be inaccurate, so... I'll try not to revert to my regular mindset with this one.

[McLoofus 35,182]

3 minutes ago, bryanlooney said:

I'm really not trying to pick on you, lionheart - honesly asking why you phrased it this way. Couldn't it just as easily be "Auburn is coming off a hard fought battle with Vandy (yes... you read that right, Vandy) that they barely won, and Georgia had their wake-up call last weekend"?

Again - I'm not being antagonistic... it just kind of sounded funny to me.

The Georgia game always scares me, regardless of the records. @WarDamnEagleWDE has an optimism I haven't seen from him in quite a while, though, and @McLoofusdid a lot to convince me my memory of past mediocre Dawg squads playing up to better Auburn teams may be inaccurate, so... I'll try no to revert to my regular mindset with this one.

One more bit of optimism. As @mcgufcm pointed out elsewhere, our DL has a significant talent advantage over their OL, and we are probably more talented on the OL, too. There is likely not a significant disparity at the other position groups, so we should win the football game. 

[lionheartkc 6,150]

3 minutes ago, bryanlooney said:

I'm really not trying to pick on you, lionheart - honesly asking why you phrased it this way. Couldn't it just as easily be "Auburn is coming off a hard fought battle with Vandy (yes... you read that right, Vandy) that they barely won, and Georgia had their wake-up call last weekend"?

Again - I'm not being antagonistic... it just kind of sounded funny to me.

The Georgia game always scares me, regardless of the records. @WarDamnEagleWDE has an optimism I haven't seen from him in quite a while, though, and @McLoofusdid a lot to convince me my nervous memories of past mediocre Dawg squads playing up to better Auburn teams may be inaccurate, so... I'll try not to revert to my regular mindset with this one.

For starters, Vandy beat Georgia... Also the fact that we were down several key players against Vandy negates the overall relevance of how close the game was or wasn't. Truth be told, had Kam not pulled something or the refs done their jobs, it wouldn't have been close. We were obviously the better team and had we gone in at full strength it wouldn't have even been pretty.

Second... I guarantee you that is EXACTLY what Georgia fans are saying.  There is no excuse for losing to Kentucky for Georgia.

That being said, I've said it before and I'll say it again... this isn't the Georgia of the past.  Richt is gone. This is a whole new puppy, so the past is out the window.

 

[logan adams 333]

Sean White named started for the Georgia game per ESPN

[Aueagle7 6]

The numbers above gives us a good idea where we may be able to exploit them.  White will start, and if I recall I think Stevens is good to go this week as well.  We still run, but I think the pass game get's a bit more play this week.

[VipersStrike1 230]

8 minutes ago, logan adams said:

Sean White named started for the Georgia game per ESPN

No. It's per Gus Malzahn.

 

 

Bryan Matthews ‏@BMattAU

Gus Malzahn: Sean White will start against Georgia. Hope to get Kamryn Pettway on the practice field today or tomorrow. He heals fast.

 

[VipersStrike1 230]

With Pettway healthy:

AU 30 Georgia 27

Without Pettway healthy:

Georgia 27 AU 23

[AUEngineer2016 407]

3-2

[JBiGGiE 2,488]

31-7

The dogs are due for a punishing beating and I think the pieces are set in place...

that said I'm afraid an inspired Georgia might make it more of a 35-28, either way Auburn SHOULD be the better team

*Bonus- Georgia's TOP ≥35 mins further causing Gary and Verne to fawn over Eason.

[HSVWarEagle 49]

27-24 AU...Score much closer than the game.  Georgia has some late heroics to make it "look good," but game is never in question.

[IndianTiger 95]

We have a history of making young Qb's look like a world beater, so we need to play a lot better on pass defense than lst 2 weeks. On the plus side, Georgia probably hasn't faced an offense like ours. Slight edge to us, because we want this game bad and the Vandy game probably woke us up. We win..

[McLoofus 35,182]

Just now, IndianTiger said:

We have a history of making young Qb's look like a world beater, so we need to play a lot better on pass defense than lst 2 weeks. On the plus side, Georgia probably hasn't faced an offense like ours. Slight edge to us, because we want this game bad and the Vandy game probably woke us up. We win..

Seems we didn't have much of a pass rush most of those times. Also, a lot of those guys had names like Matt Leinart, Aaron Murray, Ryan Mallett and Lamar Jackson. 

[IndianTiger 95]

1 minute ago, McLoofus said:

Seems we didn't have much of a pass rush most of those times. Also, a lot of those guys had names like Matt Leinart, Aaron Murray, Ryan Mallett and Lamar Jackson. 

Lets hope Adams, Lawson and Co , come out and attack

[McLoofus 35,182]

Just now, IndianTiger said:

Lets hope Adams, Lawson and Co , come out and attack

I think they will. Evidently they had their come to Jesus meeting with their position coach this past week and those two you named are from GA...

[IndianTiger 95]

I was thinking about that, should be motivation 

[VipersStrike1 230]

30 minutes ago, McLoofus said:

a lot of those guys had names like Matt Leinart, Aaron Murray, Ryan Mallett and Lamar Jackson. 

Murray lost his first game v AU.

Mallett was a 3rd year Sophomore when he beat us in 2009.

Lamar Jackson threw an INT on his first snap, finished 9-20 in relief of Bonnafon and lost v AU.

Matthew Stafford in 2006 and Johnny Manziel in 2012 would be a much better examples of young QBs beating AU or making young QBs look like world beaters.

[lionheartkc 6,150]

24 minutes ago, McLoofus said:

Seems we didn't have much of a pass rush most of those times. Also, a lot of those guys had names like Matt Leinart, Aaron Murray, Ryan Mallett and Lamar Jackson. 

It will be interesting to see, 4 years from now, if he becomes one of those names.  For now, he's the 2nd worst QB in the SEC... but the worst QB in the SEC had the lights come on against us, last week...