Season Preview 2019-2020

[JwgreDeux 1,279]

Well, my favorite time of year is here. I'm still riding high off a trip to the final freakin four and excited for a new team and new season. Unlike last season, where we knew quite a lot about our roster, this year there are more unknowns than knowns. Last season I predicted "12-6 in league play for an overall record of 21-10" with a team that, if healthy, would be well equipped for an SEC and NCAA tourney run. We went 11-7 in the league and 21-9 overall.  This season feels more like throwing a dart at a board than an educated prediction, but I'll take a shot anyway. 

 

First, looking at the roster, I think this season's team is actually deeper than last years, but lacks the refined skills that Brown and Okeke brought to the table. We don't have a shooter like Brown nor a versatile score-from-anywhere player like Okeke.  We will certainly miss Harper and his clutch free throw shooting, but are better positioned to replace him than Brown or Okeke. At first impression I think our roster looks something like this: (the cop out lineup would be J'von, Samir, Purifoy, McLemore and Wiley):

1.  J'von, Turbo, Samir

2.  Samir, Johnson, Flanigan

3. Okoro, Samir, Johnson, Flanigan, Purifoy

4.  Purifoy, McLemore, Williams, Okoro

5. McLemore or Wiley, Akingbola

Obviously, we have more players and this isn't a full depth chart, but the top 2-3 guys I think will play at each spot as of this moment (admittedly not having seen many of them in actual college action). The interesting thing about looking at our roster is the depth at the 3 spot. Last season we stared Samir there, undersized, and brought Dunbar in off the bench and tried Purifoy there some as well. I was always a fan of Dunbar and appreciated the toughness, rebounding, and athleticism he brought, but he was not a skilled ball handler or shooter on the wing, and even with his athleticism was still a bit undersized.  Purifoy hasn't looked like a legit 3 man since his freshman year and I will be surprised if he suddenly adds quickness and explosiveness to his game. I think he is going to be our starting stretch 4 and we are going to see an influx of youth at the 3 with Okoro, Johnson and Flanigan getting some minutes as well. 

Another obvious issue with my lineup is that McLemore or Wiley will come off the bench. Wiley is the best pro prospect of the upperclassmen the team, but  he is also the worst fit, and McLemore has simply been a better college center IMO. In any event, I feel pretty good about the starting lineup of J'von, Samir, Okoro, Purifoy and McLemore. 

We lost 63% of our scoring and minutes played and there will be a step back this season. How can there not be from a historic final four season? That being said, I am excited about watching this group grow and compete. I still expect us to play at a fast pace and take advantage of our upgrade in size and athleticism at the 2 and 3. I think this team will depend on defense to keep tough games close but will struggle to find late buckets that Harper used to provide (or late free throws).

 

My mostly uneducated prediction for the season is 19-11 overall and 9-9 in the league. Think we will likely be a bubble team that hopefully gets the benefit of the doubt on selection day, as we have a pretty unimpressive out of conference schedule. 

(I am reserving the right to edit this after we see the exhibition).

War Eagle. 

 

[Auhud08 596]

Im thrilled that i can be just as excited about basketball season as I get about football season

[auburnphan 6,050]

I can’t wait to see who emerges on this roster.

[gravejd 3,272]

Thanks for the read Deux and putting your thoughts out there prior to the start of the season. With this many unknowns on a team it does feel like throwing darts and seeing what sticks as far as predictions. 

I don't disagree with anything you have written. There are a couple names i think should be added to your list at the 3 and 4 position. Devan Cambridge and Javon Franklin both are new comers that i think will play a lot due to their size and athleticism. Having them in there will hopefully allow us to not play Samir and Jamal at the 3 spot. But with new players who knows how they will develop and contribute. That will be the best thing about the season is just seeing what these new guys bring to the table night in and night out. 

I pulled up the roster to get the names of those 2 guys correct and who else in here knew that Myles Parker was listed as 6'8"?!?! I had no idea he was that tall. He could be a candidate to get some minutes at the 4 spot if he has improved since last season. We only got to see him with the walkons but you could tell he was a good bit better the your usual walkon getting garbage minutes

[JwgreDeux 1,279]

6 hours ago, gravejd said:

Thanks for the read Deux and putting your thoughts out there prior to the start of the season. With this many unknowns on a team it does feel like throwing darts and seeing what sticks as far as predictions. 

I don't disagree with anything you have written. There are a couple names i think should be added to your list at the 3 and 4 position. Devan Cambridge and Javon Franklin both are new comers that i think will play a lot due to their size and athleticism. Having them in there will hopefully allow us to not play Samir and Jamal at the 3 spot. But with new players who knows how they will develop and contribute. That will be the best thing about the season is just seeing what these new guys bring to the table night in and night out. 

I pulled up the roster to get the names of those 2 guys correct and who else in here knew that Myles Parker was listed as 6'8"?!?! I had no idea he was that tall. He could be a candidate to get some minutes at the 4 spot if he has improved since last season. We only got to see him with the walkons but you could tell he was a good bit better the your usual walkon getting garbage minutes

You may be right, but there's only so many minutes to go around. 

[JwgreDeux 1,279]

I'll likely keep sharing things that jump out to me as we approach the season tip-off, and here are a few more:

J'von really didn't take many shots last season. In fact there were only 3 games he took 7 or more shots (UNC, NMSU, NC St.). In those games he averaged nearly 14 points. On top of that, he only attempted 20 3pt shots all season, making 10 for 50%, and only attempted more than one in a game 3 times. This all just highlights how much Harper played and how little we know about what kind of point guard J'von will be. 

Samir started at 3 pretty much all season, except a few games, and also had a very low shoots attempted stat, only attempting only 214 shots in 969 minutes of playing time, including 106 3pt shots at a 42% rate. Based off the style of play he displayed last year, his move to the 2 spot should fit his game better and allow him to also be matched up better defensively at less of a size/match-up disadvantage. As our starting wing he only attempted 10 or more shots in two games. In games where he attempted 7 or more shots, he averaged almost 12pts per game. On the season he averaged 5.4 attempts per game, 4th most behind Brown 11.7, Harper 11.5, and Okeke 8.9.

Purifoy our likely starter at the 4 spot, also had some low shot attempts, only post 5 or more shots in 7 games. In those games he averaged nearly 8pts per. 

 

I highlight these three guys, because they will be starting for our three leading scorers last season. With McLemore/Wiley at the 5 we know what to expect and have a pretty good idea of the production level that will come from that spot. Sure we can hope that Wiley takes a step forward and McLemore continues to gradually improve, but I think we know what to expect there for the most part. We are looking at a combined 15 points per game from the 5 spot. Add in a new starter at the 3 in Okoro and we have little to base any specific expectations on.

So, IF we project J'von at his production with 7+ shots (14pts per game) , add in Samir's projected points per game with 7+ shots (12pts per game), add in Purifoy's production with 5 shots per game (8 pts per game) and that brings us to a total of 34pts per game that think is reasonable to project from these spots. Last season we had 42pts per game from these spots (Harper, Brown and Okeke). WIth production at the 5 likely to be similar or slightly better, to me the likely success of our season depends on three things. First, how much production can we get at the 3 spot,  second bench points, and third, how much can we improve our scoring defense? On the 3 spot; last year we got  7pts per game from our starter (Samir) and 6 from Dunbar off the bench. We will need more than 13pts per from this spot to achieve another NCAA tourney birth to make up for the shortfall expected at the 1 2 and 3 spots, unless someone else significantly improves their offensive numbers. 

For the bench scoring, last season (counting Wiley's points as bench points for simplicity) we had 28.3 pts per game from the bench (3pts per were garbage pts for walk-ons etc at the end). So with bringing back Wiley at 7pts per game and excluding the garbage points, we need 18.3 points per from our new bench guys to match last year's production levels. Personally, I think we need to exceed that. Those points will need to primarily come from Jones, Johnson, and Williams or maybe Stretch.  

The other scenario is if we significantly improve or scoring defense. We allowed almost 69 points per game last season. Perhaps this year we see an improvement in this department by 5 or so points that offsets some of the offense we lost. The primary areas I expect to see some improvement is at the 1 and 3 spots. Harper was never a lock down defender, and according to some of advanced stats, J'von seems like he could be an upgrade there. At the 3 I expect us to be better based on preseason reports on Okoro and based on the size upgrade at that position. 

The points have to come from somewhere, I personally think we need a newcomer to exceed expectations to get to a scoring level that takes us back to the tourney. 

[aubiefifty 17,072]

thank you for posting. i appreciate it and always take the time out to say so if it is something i read.....

[Dual-Threat Rigby 8,813]

Purifoy is very reminiscent of Tobias Harris

[JwgreDeux 1,279]

For comparison's sake I took a look at the last class that had this many highly rated freshmen in it, the 2016-2017 class. And here are the stats put up: 

Heron stepped in at the 3 and started and produced 15 pts per game (Can Okoro come close to that)

Dunnans a juco transfer put up 8 pts per (Can Franklin come close to that).

Purifoy scored 11 pts per (can he return to that level)

McLemore as a freshman 5 pts per (Can Stretch give us that production)

If are new guys can be in this ballpark we may have another bracket appearance in our future this year. 

 

 

[ClaytonAU 4,606]

Okoro will be the difference in elite and above average IMO

[gravejd 3,272]

18 hours ago, JwgreDeux said:

I'll likely keep sharing things that jump out to me as we approach the season tip-off, and here are a few more:

J'von really didn't take many shots last season. In fact there were only 3 games he took 7 or more shots (UNC, NMSU, NC St.). In those games he averaged nearly 14 points. On top of that, he only attempted 20 3pt shots all season, making 10 for 50%, and only attempted more than one in a game 3 times. This all just highlights how much Harper played and how little we know about what kind of point guard J'von will be. 

Samir started at 3 pretty much all season, except a few games, and also had a very low shoots attempted stat, only attempting only 214 shots in 969 minutes of playing time, including 106 3pt shots at a 42% rate. Based off the style of play he displayed last year, his move to the 2 spot should fit his game better and allow him to also be matched up better defensively at less of a size/match-up disadvantage. As our starting wing he only attempted 10 or more shots in two games. In games where he attempted 7 or more shots, he averaged almost 12pts per game. On the season he averaged 5.4 attempts per game, 4th most behind Brown 11.7, Harper 11.5, and Okeke 8.9.

Purifoy our likely starter at the 4 spot, also had some low shot attempts, only post 5 or more shots in 7 games. In those games he averaged nearly 8pts per. 

 

I highlight these three guys, because they will be starting for our three leading scorers last season. With McLemore/Wiley at the 5 we know what to expect and have a pretty good idea of the production level that will come from that spot. Sure we can hope that Wiley takes a step forward and McLemore continues to gradually improve, but I think we know what to expect there for the most part. We are looking at a combined 15 points per game from the 5 spot. Add in a new starter at the 3 in Okoro and we have little to base any specific expectations on.

So, IF we project J'von at his production with 7+ shots (14pts per game) , add in Samir's projected points per game with 7+ shots (12pts per game), add in Purifoy's production with 5 shots per game (8 pts per game) and that brings us to a total of 34pts per game that think is reasonable to project from these spots. Last season we had 42pts per game from these spots (Harper, Brown and Okeke). WIth production at the 5 likely to be similar or slightly better, to me the likely success of our season depends on three things. First, how much production can we get at the 3 spot,  second bench points, and third, how much can we improve our scoring defense? On the 3 spot; last year we got  7pts per game from our starter (Samir) and 6 from Dunbar off the bench. We will need more than 13pts per from this spot to achieve another NCAA tourney birth to make up for the shortfall expected at the 1 2 and 3 spots, unless someone else significantly improves their offensive numbers. 

For the bench scoring, last season (counting Wiley's points as bench points for simplicity) we had 28.3 pts per game from the bench (3pts per were garbage pts for walk-ons etc at the end). So with bringing back Wiley at 7pts per game and excluding the garbage points, we need 18.3 points per from our new bench guys to match last year's production levels. Personally, I think we need to exceed that. Those points will need to primarily come from Jones, Johnson, and Williams or maybe Stretch.  

The other scenario is if we significantly improve or scoring defense. We allowed almost 69 points per game last season. Perhaps this year we see an improvement in this department by 5 or so points that offsets some of the offense we lost. The primary areas I expect to see some improvement is at the 1 and 3 spots. Harper was never a lock down defender, and according to some of advanced stats, J'von seems like he could be an upgrade there. At the 3 I expect us to be better based on preseason reports on Okoro and based on the size upgrade at that position. 

The points have to come from somewhere, I personally think we need a newcomer to exceed expectations to get to a scoring level that takes us back to the tourney. 

If we don't get major improvements from Wiley and Purifoy in particular then its going to be a tough season. Both of these guys are going to need to double their output from last season for us to be successful. Since Purifoy is eligible out of the gate for this season i'm counting on that giving him extra motivation this offseason to come out ready to go. Pearl has some big praise for him the other day....said he was our best player as a Freshmen and he needs to get back to being the best player. Pearl said he has seen some positive stuff from Purifoy that makes him believe he can be that player again....i am hopeful. 

 

We'll see on Wiley though....i'm less hopeful of him having a huge leap in production but one never knows. He was a highly regarded player at one time for a reason and he had 2-5 games last season where he showed he can be that guy. Maybe the new team will run better half court sets and do a better job of getting him the ball and that will make all the difference. 

 

I think its safe to assume that Jvon is not going to replace Harper's production and the same can be said about Samir at the 2 for Brown. What this season depends on is the sum of the parts all coming together and equaling the output of the guys we lost. We were highly dependent on Harper, Brown, and Chuma last season. I'm hoping this season we see 7+ guys scoring double figures every game. We may not have a guy who can go get 30 like the 3 we lost but if we have 7 guys that can go get 10-15 points we can be just as good. 

 

Can't wait for the exhibition to get here so we can start answering these questions!  

[BJCrawford 1,568]

I see the exhibition is 30 mins after the volleyball game at 6. I don’t watch volleyball so wondering how long they last. Also will anyone be posting about the game during the exhibition? Really wish I could watch.

[JwgreDeux 1,279]

3 hours ago, gravejd said:

If we don't get major improvements from Wiley and Purifoy in particular then its going to be a tough season. Both of these guys are going to need to double their output from last season for us to be successful. Since Purifoy is eligible out of the gate for this season i'm counting on that giving him extra motivation this offseason to come out ready to go. Pearl has some big praise for him the other day....said he was our best player as a Freshmen and he needs to get back to being the best player. Pearl said he has seen some positive stuff from Purifoy that makes him believe he can be that player again....i am hopeful. 

 

We'll see on Wiley though....i'm less hopeful of him having a huge leap in production but one never knows. He was a highly regarded player at one time for a reason and he had 2-5 games last season where he showed he can be that guy. Maybe the new team will run better half court sets and do a better job of getting him the ball and that will make all the difference. 

 

I think its safe to assume that Jvon is not going to replace Harper's production and the same can be said about Samir at the 2 for Brown. What this season depends on is the sum of the parts all coming together and equaling the output of the guys we lost. We were highly dependent on Harper, Brown, and Chuma last season. I'm hoping this season we see 7+ guys scoring double figures every game. We may not have a guy who can go get 30 like the 3 we lost but if we have 7 guys that can go get 10-15 points we can be just as good. 

 

Can't wait for the exhibition to get here so we can start answering these questions!  

Purifoy averaged 3.7pts per game last year. I projected him at 8 per game that is more than doubling. Wiley averaged 7 points per game in 13 mins of time, with McLemore getting 20 mins per game of playing time. I just don't think Wiley is going to get enough minutes to average double his production levels. The reality is, even if they do both double their production, we will still need a heavy contribution for Okoro and the other newcomers, there is no way around that, unless someone is just a different player than what we have seen so far. 

1 hour ago, BJCrawford said:

I see the exhibition is 30 mins after the volleyball game at 6. I don’t watch volleyball so wondering how long they last. Also will anyone be posting about the game during the exhibition? Really wish I could watch.

They are going to start letting you in at 6:30 or so and the game could start as early as 7:30.

[Tiger 8,833]

Anyone think that J'Von could possibly be a better drive and dump off type of player than Harper was? Teams were daring Harper to finish at the rack without bringing a ton of help over I wonder if J'Von's ability to finish at the rack may force the defenses to abandon Wiley/Stretch/Mac down low when he gets into the paint. That could boost Wiley's scoring just on a few of those per game

 

Edit: Just to be clear, I'm talking about just this one aspect of J'Von's and Harper's games.

[Zeek 16,660]

This is the year more of the fanbase will open their eyes to the fact that we are an equestrian basketball school now.

[steeleagle 2,945]

Pearl said that if you really want to get an idea of who will be the starters and the first subs, and how we will look early on is to watch the Georgia Southern game, not the exhibition game. 

He said in the exhibition game, he will be substituting a lot, working in a ton of combinations of players, to see how they perform, run the offense, and look at different positions. So fans aren't going to get a good feel for how the team will look.

But the true test will be the GS game he said. 

[JwgreDeux 1,279]

7 hours ago, BJCrawford said:

I see the exhibition is 30 mins after the volleyball game at 6. I don’t watch volleyball so wondering how long they last. Also will anyone be posting about the game during the exhibition? Really wish I could watch.

I’ll be there and post thoughts sometime after 

[JwgreDeux 1,279]

10 min till tip. 

[JwgreDeux 1,279]

[AUBwins 10,107]

4 minutes ago, JwgreDeux said:

Such a beautiful sight!

[JwgreDeux 1,279]

The starters are McCormick Isaac okoro  Purifoy and Wiley

[JwgreDeux 1,279]

And Samir 

[JwgreDeux 1,279]

Mcklemore and Johnson were the first two off the bench at the 5 and the 2. 

[AUTigersfan89 256]

Do you have any quick halftime thoughts?

[JwgreDeux 1,279]

Just now, AUTigersfan89 said:

Do you have any quick halftime thoughts?

Halftime thoughts. We have a ton of athletes. Cambridge, Flanagan and Stretch all have better size than I expected and all will contribute this season. Turbo has crazy athletic ability but is not as polished as a ball handler as Harper was as a freshman. All the returners look in good form. McLemore played some 4 but Wr have little offense during that stretch. Okoro started the game guarding their point guard, and is as advertised on defense. His shooting needs work. He tried to post up a few times, with no entry pass. we are noticing bigger as a team and the defense should be very good. Only player I was not very impressed with was Johnson. He didn’t show much, not that he isn’t capable. 
 

its 57-25 at half and they made some tough shots.