Season Preview 2019-2020

[BJCrawford 1,568]

On the radio sounds like a decent crowd. Did it fill in some from your pic?

[JwgreDeux 1,279]

2 hours ago, BJCrawford said:

On the radio sounds like a decent crowd. Did it fill in some from your pic?

Pic was well before the game. I’d say 75/80 % full. 

[JwgreDeux 1,279]

Second half was kinda sloppy. Don’t want to fade-away too much from an exhibition, but Okoro did not do much offensively and that is concerning. We have to replace the offense from somewhere. 

[JwgreDeux 1,279]

On 10/29/2019 at 2:17 PM, JwgreDeux said:

Well, my favorite time of year is here. I'm still riding high off a trip to the final freakin four and excited for a new team and new season. Unlike last season, where we knew quite a lot about our roster, this year there are more unknowns than knowns. Last season I predicted "12-6 in league play for an overall record of 21-10" with a team that, if healthy, would be well equipped for an SEC and NCAA tourney run. We went 11-7 in the league and 21-9 overall.  This season feels more like throwing a dart at a board than an educated prediction, but I'll take a shot anyway. 

 

First, looking at the roster, I think this season's team is actually deeper than last years, but lacks the refined skills that Brown and Okeke brought to the table. We don't have a shooter like Brown nor a versatile score-from-anywhere player like Okeke.  We will certainly miss Harper and his clutch free throw shooting, but are better positioned to replace him than Brown or Okeke. At first impression I think our roster looks something like this: (the cop out lineup would be J'von, Samir, Purifoy, McLemore and Wiley):

1.  J'von, Turbo, Samir

2.  Samir, Johnson, Flanigan

3. Okoro, Samir, Johnson, Flanigan, Purifoy

4.  Purifoy, McLemore, Williams, Okoro

5. McLemore or Wiley, Akingbola

Obviously, we have more players and this isn't a full depth chart, but the top 2-3 guys I think will play at each spot as of this moment (admittedly not having seen many of them in actual college action). The interesting thing about looking at our roster is the depth at the 3 spot. Last season we stared Samir there, undersized, and brought Dunbar in off the bench and tried Purifoy there some as well. I was always a fan of Dunbar and appreciated the toughness, rebounding, and athleticism he brought, but he was not a skilled ball handler or shooter on the wing, and even with his athleticism was still a bit undersized.  Purifoy hasn't looked like a legit 3 man since his freshman year and I will be surprised if he suddenly adds quickness and explosiveness to his game. I think he is going to be our starting stretch 4 and we are going to see an influx of youth at the 3 with Okoro, Johnson and Flanigan getting some minutes as well. 

Another obvious issue with my lineup is that McLemore or Wiley will come off the bench. Wiley is the best pro prospect of the upperclassmen the team, but  he is also the worst fit, and McLemore has simply been a better college center IMO. In any event, I feel pretty good about the starting lineup of J'von, Samir, Okoro, Purifoy and McLemore. 

We lost 63% of our scoring and minutes played and there will be a step back this season. How can there not be from a historic final four season? That being said, I am excited about watching this group grow and compete. I still expect us to play at a fast pace and take advantage of our upgrade in size and athleticism at the 2 and 3. I think this team will depend on defense to keep tough games close but will struggle to find late buckets that Harper used to provide (or late free throws).

 

My mostly uneducated prediction for the season is 19-11 overall and 9-9 in the league. Think we will likely be a bubble team that hopefully gets the benefit of the doubt on selection day, as we have a pretty unimpressive out of conference schedule. 

(I am reserving the right to edit this after we see the exhibition).

War Eagle. 

 

After seeing the exhibition game, I am going to improve my outlook on the season slightly to another 20 win season, going 20-10 and 10-8 in the league. 

[JwgreDeux 1,279]

For what it's worth, Joe has us in his bracket as a 7 seed: http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

[cole256 17,084]

Great write up!

[JwgreDeux 1,279]

On 10/29/2019 at 2:17 PM, JwgreDeux said:

Well, my favorite time of year is here. I'm still riding high off a trip to the final freakin four and excited for a new team and new season. Unlike last season, where we knew quite a lot about our roster, this year there are more unknowns than knowns. Last season I predicted "12-6 in league play for an overall record of 21-10" with a team that, if healthy, would be well equipped for an SEC and NCAA tourney run. We went 11-7 in the league and 21-9 overall.  This season feels more like throwing a dart at a board than an educated prediction, but I'll take a shot anyway. 

 

First, looking at the roster, I think this season's team is actually deeper than last years, but lacks the refined skills that Brown and Okeke brought to the table. We don't have a shooter like Brown nor a versatile score-from-anywhere player like Okeke.  We will certainly miss Harper and his clutch free throw shooting, but are better positioned to replace him than Brown or Okeke. At first impression I think our roster looks something like this: (the cop out lineup would be J'von, Samir, Purifoy, McLemore and Wiley):

1.  J'von, Turbo, Samir

2.  Samir, Johnson, Flanigan

3. Okoro, Samir, Johnson, Flanigan, Purifoy

4.  Purifoy, McLemore, Williams, Okoro

5. McLemore or Wiley, Akingbola

Obviously, we have more players and this isn't a full depth chart, but the top 2-3 guys I think will play at each spot as of this moment (admittedly not having seen many of them in actual college action). The interesting thing about looking at our roster is the depth at the 3 spot. Last season we stared Samir there, undersized, and brought Dunbar in off the bench and tried Purifoy there some as well. I was always a fan of Dunbar and appreciated the toughness, rebounding, and athleticism he brought, but he was not a skilled ball handler or shooter on the wing, and even with his athleticism was still a bit undersized.  Purifoy hasn't looked like a legit 3 man since his freshman year and I will be surprised if he suddenly adds quickness and explosiveness to his game. I think he is going to be our starting stretch 4 and we are going to see an influx of youth at the 3 with Okoro, Johnson and Flanigan getting some minutes as well. 

Another obvious issue with my lineup is that McLemore or Wiley will come off the bench. Wiley is the best pro prospect of the upperclassmen the team, but  he is also the worst fit, and McLemore has simply been a better college center IMO. In any event, I feel pretty good about the starting lineup of J'von, Samir, Okoro, Purifoy and McLemore. 

We lost 63% of our scoring and minutes played and there will be a step back this season. How can there not be from a historic final four season? That being said, I am excited about watching this group grow and compete. I still expect us to play at a fast pace and take advantage of our upgrade in size and athleticism at the 2 and 3. I think this team will depend on defense to keep tough games close but will struggle to find late buckets that Harper used to provide (or late free throws).

 

My mostly uneducated prediction for the season is 19-11 overall and 9-9 in the league. Think we will likely be a bubble team that hopefully gets the benefit of the doubt on selection day, as we have a pretty unimpressive out of conference schedule. 

(I am reserving the right to edit this after we see the exhibition).

War Eagle. 

 

Also, after watching the exhibition, I'm not sure we will see much of Samir or Johnson at the 3 spot this season. Flanigan looks to be the likely back up at 3 and Cambridge looks to be ahead of Williams at the 4 on the depth chart as well.  We will obviously know more very soon with real games tipping. 

Not sure those alterations to a projected depth chart changes anything as far as needed production or season outlook goes. 

[mustache eagle 2,416]

Amazingly our 10-12 guys this year may be as good as our 3-5 guys in the barbee/lebo  years

my how things change.  This year will be so much fun - assuming fans will have understand the inevitable bumps along the road.

[Zeek 16,660]

On 10/29/2019 at 2:17 PM, JwgreDeux said:

19-11 overall and 9-9 in the league.

My completely uneducated prediction will be a little more optimistic. I'm guessing we finish 23-7.

[ellitor 33,114]

Per Mark Murphy Pearl said everyone is healthy for tonight’s opener, including Javon Franklin, the juco forward who broke his fibula last season. Franklin is the only scholarship player who didn't play in the exhibition game. Pearl said Javon not playing was just a coaches decision so MM thinks it's obvious Franklin isn't going to be in the playing rotation early in the season.

[cole256 17,084]

20 hours ago, JwgreDeux said:

Also, after watching the exhibition, I'm not sure we will see much of Samir or Johnson at the 3 spot this season. Flanigan looks to be the likely back up at 3 and Cambridge looks to be ahead of Williams at the 4 on the depth chart as well.  We will obviously know more very soon with real games tipping. 

Not sure those alterations to a projected depth chart changes anything as far as needed production or season outlook goes. 

I know he's a monster athlete but you think Cambridge can play the 4? 

[JwgreDeux 1,279]

8 minutes ago, cole256 said:

I know he's a monster athlete but you think Cambridge can play the 4? 

I think we will see him at the 4 against some smaller teams, he looked similar in size to DP and McLemore in person. He isn't quite as heavy, but his athleticism could help him compensate for that. I think he will play 3 and 4, but think we may need him at the 4 more as I don't think McLemore is a good option for extended minutes at the 4.  

[JwgreDeux 1,279]

19 minutes ago, cole256 said:

I know he's a monster athlete but you think Cambridge can play the 4? 

He played the 4 some at the end of the first half of the exhibition, unless I'm misremembering the game.  We also had a few sets where Cambridge, Okoro and Purifoy were on the floor together with Stretch and McCormick, where we played the 2. Long story, I think we see him at the 2, 3 and 4 at times. 

I didn't really mean that he was a 4 man, just that it looks like CBP was covering the 4 position with Purifory/McLemore/Cambridge until late in the game (except a short 2 minute stretch were Williams played in the first half).

[Barnacle 9,064]

Really trying to commit myself to watching as much basketball as I can this season. 

Looking forward to reading in this forum as well. There are quite a few posters who seem like they have a great understanding of the game and our roster. 

I played basketball from age 7-8 through my freshman year of high school. I was a decent athlete who could play defense, but I lacked the size and refined skills to compete on the varsity level. I have a decent "general" understanding of the game, but nothing like what some of you have. 

Think I will learn a lot this season if I hang around here. Anyway, looking forward to it!

[Tigerpro2a 5,650]

Can someone help me here? I have a question...I haven't followed Basketball recruiting very much. Who is Turbo?

[jared52 4,354]

9 minutes ago, Tigerpro2a said:

Can someone help me here? I have a question...I haven't followed Basketball recruiting very much. Who is Turbo?

https://auburntigers.com/roster.aspx?rp_id=14892
 

Just came back from leg surgery so I am sure he’s still getting his legs under him.

[JwgreDeux 1,279]

On 10/31/2019 at 2:50 PM, JwgreDeux said:

I'll likely keep sharing things that jump out to me as we approach the season tip-off, and here are a few more:

J'von really didn't take many shots last season. In fact there were only 3 games he took 7 or more shots (UNC, NMSU, NC St.). In those games he averaged nearly 14 points. On top of that, he only attempted 20 3pt shots all season, making 10 for 50%, and only attempted more than one in a game 3 times. This all just highlights how much Harper played and how little we know about what kind of point guard J'von will be. 

Samir started at 3 pretty much all season, except a few games, and also had a very low shoots attempted stat, only attempting only 214 shots in 969 minutes of playing time, including 106 3pt shots at a 42% rate. Based off the style of play he displayed last year, his move to the 2 spot should fit his game better and allow him to also be matched up better defensively at less of a size/match-up disadvantage. As our starting wing he only attempted 10 or more shots in two games. In games where he attempted 7 or more shots, he averaged almost 12pts per game. On the season he averaged 5.4 attempts per game, 4th most behind Brown 11.7, Harper 11.5, and Okeke 8.9.

Purifoy our likely starter at the 4 spot, also had some low shot attempts, only post 5 or more shots in 7 games. In those games he averaged nearly 8pts per. 

 

I highlight these three guys, because they will be starting for our three leading scorers last season. With McLemore/Wiley at the 5 we know what to expect and have a pretty good idea of the production level that will come from that spot. Sure we can hope that Wiley takes a step forward and McLemore continues to gradually improve, but I think we know what to expect there for the most part. We are looking at a combined 15 points per game from the 5 spot. Add in a new starter at the 3 in Okoro and we have little to base any specific expectations on.

So, IF we project J'von at his production with 7+ shots (14pts per game) , add in Samir's projected points per game with 7+ shots (12pts per game), add in Purifoy's production with 5 shots per game (8 pts per game) and that brings us to a total of 34pts per game that think is reasonable to project from these spots. Last season we had 42pts per game from these spots (Harper, Brown and Okeke). WIth production at the 5 likely to be similar or slightly better, to me the likely success of our season depends on three things. First, how much production can we get at the 3 spot,  second bench points, and third, how much can we improve our scoring defense? On the 3 spot; last year we got  7pts per game from our starter (Samir) and 6 from Dunbar off the bench. We will need more than 13pts per from this spot to achieve another NCAA tourney birth to make up for the shortfall expected at the 1 2 and 3 spots, unless someone else significantly improves their offensive numbers. 

For the bench scoring, last season (counting Wiley's points as bench points for simplicity) we had 28.3 pts per game from the bench (3pts per were garbage pts for walk-ons etc at the end). So with bringing back Wiley at 7pts per game and excluding the garbage points, we need 18.3 points per from our new bench guys to match last year's production levels. Personally, I think we need to exceed that. Those points will need to primarily come from Jones, Johnson, and Williams or maybe Stretch.  

The other scenario is if we significantly improve or scoring defense. We allowed almost 69 points per game last season. Perhaps this year we see an improvement in this department by 5 or so points that offsets some of the offense we lost. The primary areas I expect to see some improvement is at the 1 and 3 spots. Harper was never a lock down defender, and according to some of advanced stats, J'von seems like he could be an upgrade there. At the 3 I expect us to be better based on preseason reports on Okoro and based on the size upgrade at that position. 

The points have to come from somewhere, I personally think we need a newcomer to exceed expectations to get to a scoring level that takes us back to the tourney. 

So after 4 games our scoring has been:

McCormick - 7.5 (well below the 14 per I projected).

Samir - 18 (above what I projected 12 per)

Okor - 15 (no projection given, but on par with what I suggested we would need)

Purifoy - 11.25 (above what I projected 8 per)

McLemore - 9.5 (combined with Wiley's 7.5 per, we are slightly above last year's mark)

bench

Wiley (keeping here for simplicity to compare to my projection, 7.5 per right at last year's number as expected).

Johnson - 7.75 

Cambridge - 5.5 

Flanigan - 2.75  (these three are combining for 16 pts per, slightly below the 18 I projected we needed). 

Overall from a scoring perspective I am pretty happy. I know competition hasn't been great, but the offense and the freshmen have room to grow as the season get tougher. My concern is primarily at the 1, we aren't getting the points I expected from McCormick and Jones hasn't helped much yet. Need to really watch that area as we go along. Production at the 3 has been better than expected. Cambridge is a nice surprise and Okoro is off to a great start. Scoring defense has not progressed as hoped, at least not yet. We have to improve there if we want to make another deep run. 

 

On 10/31/2019 at 3:35 PM, JwgreDeux said:

For comparison's sake I took a look at the last class that had this many highly rated freshmen in it, the 2016-2017 class. And here are the stats put up: 

Heron stepped in at the 3 and started and produced 15 pts per game (Can Okoro come close to that)

Dunnans a juco transfer put up 8 pts per (Can Franklin come close to that).

Purifoy scored 11 pts per (can he return to that level)

McLemore as a freshman 5 pts per (Can Stretch give us that production)

If are new guys can be in this ballpark we may have another bracket appearance in our future this year. 

 

 

Okoro is coming through so far, similar to Heron. 

Franklin is not in the picture, but Cambridge is providing a nice boost. 

Purifoy is not back at 11 per, but he does look more like his old self vs last season and I'm hopeful he will continue to improve. 

While Stretch isn't going to give us 5 a game, McLemore is giving us almost 10 coming off the bench, if Wiley can elevate his play a bit, we will get all we need from the 5. 

[AuburnNTexas 7,198]

What is nice I think both Wiley and Mac will get better as year goes on. In Colgate game I saw Mac playing without fear and on his quick pogo stick. I had heard so much about Okoro that I kind of expected him to be this good on D but not this good on O at beginning of the year.  DP has actually played better D than I expected and has started to go to the rack some instead of only settling for the three. The player who has shown me way more than I expected is Samir his three has improved and he is shooting it effortlessly, his ball handling has improved and he broke two guys ankles in the Colgate game, he is hitting the boards, taking charges and finding the open man, plus he is staying out of foul trouble.  Cambridge has been a huge pleasant surprise. J'Von has been really good or really inconsistent with a bad half and a good half but last two games has been good.  Turbo is not a backup PG at this time he is not decisive he picks up his dribble then looks for somebody to pass to and he telegraph's his passes I am hoping that it is a learning curve and he will improve as year goes on. Flanagin won't hurt us when in and can provide rest and Johnson had the one great game against South Alabama so need to see more before I can say if he can be instant offense off the bench with his three.

I have hardly seen Stretch, Jaylin Williams, or Javon Franklin but the little I have seen I think Stretch can give us some solid defensive minutes if Wiley and Mac get in foul trouble but he is still a little to excitable so will get a lot of fouls, Jaylin moves well and I think will be a factor later in the year or next year and I don't have an opinion on Franklin.  

[bigbird 60,580]

The best thing I've noticed is the lack of stagnation on offense. There has been consistent ball and player movement throughout the possession.

[Tiger 8,833]

20 hours ago, bigbird said:

The best thing I've noticed is the lack of stagnation on offense. There has been consistent ball and player movement throughout the possession.

Same here. It's been beautiful.