‘This Is Not Saigon. This Is Worse Than Saigon.’

[AUDub 11,153]

23 minutes ago, SLAG-91 said:

 

Hell of a caveat further down the thread. 

Yes we're counting numbers more broadly with the DOD numbers, which I'm OK with as our USMC are the ones securing the airport, operating the towers and performing the vast majority of the processing. 

[AUFAN78 3,911]

15 hours ago, AUDub said:

The Trump plan was simply to up and have everyone out by May 1st. If you dig for details, you're going to be left wanting. Stopped clock moment to move to end the war, but they left a quandary for us to figure out.

Biden has delayed enough. It's time we honor Doha as agreed.

To what end? Bagram, as I've said time and time again, is not in a good area to be a potential evac zone. To flex? That's ******* stupid. We're in a negotiated ceasefire and so far it's holding up while we fly out everyone we can.

Inaccurate. The plan included roughly 800-850 personnel permanently left behind for support.

No one is arguing troop withdrawal. Rather plans vs madness.

Inaccurate. BAFB is logistically a more secure location. Had we kept both, the evac of all but the aforementioned 800 would be complete.

[autigeremt 6,643]

On 8/24/2021 at 9:49 AM, AUDub said:

So how would you have changed the reality?

Used a much more deliberate timetable while showing strength towards the Taliban, including strikes and offensive posturing while at the same time creating a timetable with those in country so that the withdrawal is more secure and logistically effective. The Taliban is the enemy regardless of how, when and why we are there. This isn't the Mujahideen of the Soviet era. They are an enemy of the United States through their actions and their networks of terrorism. We are leaving them with weaponry and materials that do not make sense (we could have easily rendered them useless) but I'm sure there's a reason somewhere in the dark depths of government. I do not defend the actions of this administration in this regard. They dropped the ball and get what they deserve (though muted in some circles). 

 

[AUDub 11,153]

13 minutes ago, AUFAN78 said:

Inaccurate. The plan included roughly 800-850 personnel permanently left behind for support.

That assumed an interim government with a power sharing agreement. Wishful thinking. The Taliban was always going to end up in control and they would allow no American forces on their soil.

Even then 800 is an incredibly low number of troops to have any sort of effect. Hell we need 6000 just to secure HKIA as it stands.

Even Trump's last SECDEF admits this was a ruse.

https://www.defenseone.com/policy/2021/08/trumps-pledge-exit-afghanistan-was-ruse-his-final-secdef-says/184660/

13 minutes ago, AUFAN78 said:

No one is arguing troop withdrawal. Rather plans vs madness.

As I said, there may be a legit criticism for basing our plans on intel estimates for how long the ANDSF could hold and that their leaders wouldn't flee with literal suitcases full of money at the drop of a hat, but it is what it is now and things are going about as well as can be expected. 

13 minutes ago, AUFAN78 said:

Inaccurate. BAFB is logistically a more secure location. Had we kept both, the evac of all but the aforementioned 800 would be complete.

It's secure for the same reason it wouldn't be a good evacuation site. It's hard as hell to get to. We'd need a five figure troop surge just to secure the base and to even attempt to secure the highway, which would be damn near impossible to begin with. 

[AUFAN78 3,911]

13 hours ago, AU9377 said:

The military has planned every bit of this.  The plan you speak of also did not assume that the Afghan military was made up of cowards unwilling to fight for the freedoms they enjoyed.  If Kabul was still unuder Afghan control, would this not be a much smoother process?  Even so, evacuating 100,000 is not small task and that has already been done.

Lots of inaccuracies starting at sentence one. 

And this: "The plan you speak of also did not assume that the Afghan military was made up of cowards unwilling to fight for the freedoms they enjoyed." Please share that intel. lol

[AUDub 11,153]

Just now, AUFAN78 said:

Lots of inaccuracies starting at sentence one. 

And this: "The plan you speak of also did not assume that the Afghan military was made up of cowards unwilling to fight for the freedoms they enjoyed." Please share that intel. lol

It's called a contingency. What we're doing right now is one of those plans. 

[AUFAN78 3,911]

20 minutes ago, AUDub said:

That assumed an interim government with a power sharing agreement. Wishful thinking. The Taliban was always going to end up in control and they would allow no American forces on their soil.

Even then 800 is an incredibly low number of troops to have any sort of effect. Hell we need 6000 just to secure HKIA as it stands.

Even Trump's last SECDEF admits this was a ruse.

https://www.defenseone.com/policy/2021/08/trumps-pledge-exit-afghanistan-was-ruse-his-final-secdef-says/184660/

As I said, there may be a legit criticism for basing our plans on intel estimates for how long the ANDSF could hold and that their leaders wouldn't flee with literal suitcases full of money at the drop of a hat, but it is what it is now and things are going about as well as can be expected. 

It's secure for the same reason it wouldn't be a good evacuation site. It's hard as hell to get to. We'd need a five figure troop surge just to secure the base and to even attempt to secure the highway, which would be damn near impossible to begin with. 

Many more inaccuracies. SMH

[AUFAN78 3,911]

18 minutes ago, AUDub said:

It's called a contingency. What we're doing right now is one of those plans. 

sigh

[AUDub 11,153]

Just now, AUFAN78 said:

Many more inaccuracies. SMH

There should be some kind of rule for telling someone they're wrong without explaining why. 

[AUDub 11,153]

Just now, AUFAN78 said:

sigh

Those words came straight from General Milley. 

[AUDub 11,153]

What I think likely happens is that we get the vast majority of them out by the end of the month and extend the deadline a week or two while we track down the remainder. Biden isn't a moron and there's no way in hell I could see him leaving Americans that want to leave there without an earnest effort by our forces to get them out. 

At the same time these people were warned to leave in April and 7 more times since. Guess people are mad that we were telling the truth about that. 

[AUDub 11,153]

1 hour ago, autigeremt said:

Used a much more deliberate timetable while showing strength towards the Taliban, including strikes and offensive posturing while at the same time creating a timetable with those in country so that the withdrawal is more secure and logistically effective. The Taliban is the enemy regardless of how, when and why we are there. This isn't the Mujahideen of the Soviet era. They are an enemy of the United States through their actions and their networks of terrorism.

Flexing is the last thing we need to do. This has been a relatively bloodless affair and hopefully it will remain the way. The last thing we need to do is violate the ceasefire or do anything that could be perceived as escalating just to show them who's got nuts.

Yes they're the bad guys and the mask will come off eventually, but it's in the best interests of all involved to avoid picking any sort of fight with them right now.

We are getting multitudes out safely at the moment. One slip could put those people beyond reach or outright lead to their deaths. 

Quote

We are leaving them with weaponry and materials that do not make sense (we could have easily rendered them useless) but I'm sure there's a reason somewhere in the dark depths of government. I do not defend the actions of this administration in this regard. They dropped the ball and get what they deserve (though muted in some circles). 

We left stuff for the ANDSF. That they folded like a cheap tent, hardly bothering to fire a shot, does suck, and the blame is on us as much as them for that.

Edited August 25, 2021 by AUDub

[autigeremt 6,643]

1 minute ago, AUDub said:

Flexing is the last thing we need to do. This has been a relatively bloodless affair and hopefully it will remain the way. The last thing we need to do is violate the ceasefire or do anything that could be perceived as escalating just to show them who's got nuts.

Yes they're the bad guys and the mask will come off eventually, but it's in the best interests of all involved to avoid picking any sort of fight with them right now.

We are getting multitudes out safely at the moment. One slip could put those people beyond reach or outright lead to their deaths. 

We left stuff for the ANDSF. That they folded like a cheap tent and hardly bothering to fire a shot does suck, and the blame is on us as much as them for that.

yeah no need to flex when you are tucking your tail and running

[Leftfield 2,610]

1 minute ago, autigeremt said:

yeah no need to flex when you are tucking your tail and running

You would have the same sentiment if someone you loved were one of the people still stuck there, right?

[AUDub 11,153]

6 minutes ago, autigeremt said:

yeah no need to flex when you are tucking your tail and running

**** that framing. We're leaving, end of story. You wany to go over there and unload a clip on the Taliban, be my guest. Just to show them you don't take no s***? Have at it.

Just don't be surprised when the Taliban drops the facade and a lot of people trying to flee for their lives, and being allowed to for the moment, become sacrifices on the alter of how manly you are. 

Edited August 25, 2021 by AUDub

[autigeremt 6,643]

1 minute ago, AUDub said:

**** that framing. We're leaving, end of story. You wany to go over there and unload a clip on the Taliban, be my guest. Just to show them you don't take no s***? Have at it.

Just don't be surprised when the Taliban drops the facade and a lot of people trying to flee for their lives, and being allowed to for the moment, become sacrificed on the alter of how manly you are. 

I proved my worth ten fold. Scars to prove it and left blood along the desert sand and the central American jungles. Enough said 

[autigeremt 6,643]

3 minutes ago, Leftfield said:

You would have the same sentiment if someone you loved were one of the people still stuck there, right?

Only if the plan had been executed differently. Some of us in this world have been to places you wouldn't dare tread. Perspective can be healthy....or distracting. 

[autigeremt 6,643]

BBC Reports "Unified Loathing" Of Biden's Afghanistan Policy In UK Parliament | Video | RealClearPolitics

Taliban Takeover: UK Parliament Condemns President Biden, PM Johnson | The National Interest

[AUDub 11,153]

Just now, autigeremt said:

I proved my worth ten fold. Scars to prove it and left blood along the desert sand and the central American jungles. Enough said 

Yes we get it. You're a badass.

This is a delicate situation right now. The "bull in a china shop" approach you're advocating would not be a good thing. We have an effective airlift ongoing that we should not jeopardize because you want to look tough. 

[Leftfield 2,610]

1 minute ago, autigeremt said:

Only if the plan had been executed differently. Some of us in this world have been to places you wouldn't dare tread. Perspective can be healthy....or distracting. 

But we're not talking about if the plan had been executed differently. We're talking about how things are.

How nice of you to cast aspersions on my character without even knowing me. I appreciate your service. Not so much the attitude.

[autigeremt 6,643]

Just now, AUDub said:

Yes we get it. You're a badass.

This is a delicate situation right now. The "bull in a china shop" approach you're advocating would not be a good thing. We have an effective airlift ongoing that we should not jeopardize because you want to look tough. 

Not a badass at all...just lived life experiencing some things and have a different point of view. I can be pretty damn angry when I need to be. You took a different idea of how I WOULD have done this and spun it. 

[autigeremt 6,643]

1 minute ago, Leftfield said:

But we're not talking about if the plan had been executed differently. We're talking about how things are.

How nice of you to cast aspersions on my character without even knowing me. I appreciate your service. Not so much the attitude.

I was actually talking about myself in regards to my experiences but whatever makes you feel better. 

[Leftfield 2,610]

1 minute ago, autigeremt said:

I was actually talking about myself in regards to my experiences but whatever makes you feel better. 

Well, when you say "Some of us in this world have been to places you wouldn't dare tread," forgive me if it appears you're belittling those that don't share your "perspective." 

 

[AUDub 11,153]

10 minutes ago, autigeremt said:

BBC Reports "Unified Loathing" Of Biden's Afghanistan Policy In UK Parliament | Video | RealClearPolitics

Taliban Takeover: UK Parliament Condemns President Biden, PM Johnson | The National Interest

I really don't care what the UK thinks. They're welcome to send the SAS to continue the war if they wish. We're done. 

[AUDub 11,153]

14 minutes ago, autigeremt said:

Not a badass at all...just lived life experiencing some things and have a different point of view. I can be pretty damn angry when I need to be. You took a different idea of how I WOULD have done this and spun it. 

Your idea is a show of force. We agreed not to do that.

We've delayed enough with regard to our agreement in Doha. We've been warning civvies to get out for months. It's time to go, and they're letting us leave. If we need to show force we can, but it should be reactive rather than proactive while we're getting people out of harm's way.