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AU the pick to win fourth straight Iron Bowl

Friday, November 18, 2005

Staff report

Alabama's defense leads the nation in points allowed, but all 17 members of the Mobile Register sports staff believe Auburn will figure a way to score more than the nine points Alabama has given up on average this season. In fact, despite Alabama's better record, 14 of 17 Register staff members pick the Tigers to win at home. The average predicted score is 20-14, which is consistent with the Las Vegas line that has Auburn favored by about a touchdown.

It is significant to note that the two most often mentioned players by staff members explaining their picks are Kenny Irons, the emerging Auburn running back, and Tyrone Prothro, the injured Alabama receiver.

Last year, all but one staff member correctly picked Auburn to win, with Randy Kennedy and Mike Herndon missing each team's final score by only three points.

Here are this year's predictions.

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Like most rivalry games, the only thing that matters now is who wants it more, and the Tigers are out to prove they're an SEC mainstay. While an Alabama win would likely help cement the Tide's return to the top, an Auburn win would deliver a huge blow to Alabama's psyche -- and that's something the Tigers would desperately love to do. Auburn 23, Alabama 13

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For all that Alabama's senior class has done to help restore Crimson credibility, they haven't managed to beat Auburn. With seven of those seniors on a very good defense, this might be their best chance in a long time to get the best of the Tigers, but it won't happen in Jordan-Hare. This Iron Bowl will be the Irons Bowl as crazy-legs Kenny runs wild and David makes a big defensive play. Bama kicks five field goals but the Tigers win. Auburn 21, Alabama 15

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You can analyze scores, you can break down statistics, you can talk about matchups and you can talk to every oddsmaker between Mobile and Vegas. But when it comes to this game, you can't look inside the hearts of the players and coaches. I like Auburn to win in Jordan-Hare Stadium. But since when does anyone pay attention to what a sportswriter thinks? Auburn 27, Alabama 21

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Alabama's offensive line couldn't block a doorway. And even if they could, Brodie Croyle couldn't make a long-distance connection with a calling card. Auburn continues to fly under the radar and does so without a Colonial Jet, which means all is good on the Plains. In the end, Auburn wins the much-hyped game, which has become little more than a consolation prize in the race for the SEC West. In fact, state bragging rights can't even be claimed. Those belongs to LSU. Auburn 24, Alabama 13

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What looked to be an evenly matched Iron Bowl now, after last Saturday, seems like Auburn's game to lose. But it's dangerous to try to predict a game in the SEC based on one week's performance. In playing LSU, Alabama faced an offense comparable to Auburn's and held it in check for most of the game. Although Kenny Irons seems unstoppable, it's questionable whether Auburn has seen a defense as good as Alabama's. This game would have been better with the SEC West on the line, but it's still nice to see both teams carrying solid national rankings into what should be the kind of grudge match one expects in a rivalry like this. Alabama 16, Auburn 14

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As we are learning more and more each year, it's not how you start in college football, but how you finish. Auburn started its season being upset at home by Georgia Tech and six games later lost again at LSU. Alabama, coming off a 6-6 season, jumped out to a 9-0 record, was one of three unbeaten Division I-A teams and was being whispered as a possible national championship game participant before losing in LSU. As Auburn and Alabama prepare to square off, it is Auburn with the momentum. Auburn 20, Alabama 14

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So what happens when the SEC's best defense meets the SEC's top offense? Look at their opposite numbers: Auburn is seventh in the nation in scoring defense; Alabama is 79th in scoring offense. Since losing Tyrone Prothro, Alabama has averaged scoring 12 points in SEC games. The last time the Tide won the Iron Bowl with a point total that low was 1967. The cliché says, "Defense wins championships," but you've never heard a coach say, "We need to get our offense off the field." Auburn 21, Alabama 15

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Nobody is going to score many points on this Alabama defense, which still leads the nation with an average of only nine points allowed per game. But Auburn won't need many points to win a low-scoring battle that will earn the winner at least a share of the SEC West title. Auburn 17, Alabama 10

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Despite injuries to several impact players, Alabama has lost only one game, which was by three points in overtime. Alabama will be motivated after dropping five places in the polls following a loss to the nation's fifth-ranked team, while the team that moved to No. 3 (Miami) holds a loss to a 7-3 squad, and another team with two losses (Notre Dame) moved in front of the Tide. Conversely, Auburn may be emotionally spent after winning one of the South's oldest rivalry games at Georgia. A slightly wounded elephant is much more dangerous than a tiger who has just feasted. Alabama 20, Auburn 14

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The dream season for Alabama ended formally against LSU, informally when the team lost Tyrone Protho. The nightmare will continue this week when the trio of Brandon Cox, Kenny Irons and Courtney Taylor take to the field for Auburn. Cox has proven to be a better quarterback in clutch situations while Irons is a home-run hitter who's capable of scoring whenever he touches the football and Taylor's talent will continue to speak for itself. Auburn 24, Alabama 10

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Just one week ago, I was looking forward to finally seeing a meaningful Iron Bowl. Sure, Alabama has an outside shot at a BCS at-large bowl bid with a win, but the winner is likely headed to Orlando with the loser going to Dallas. Instead of being must-see TV all over the country, the Iron Bowl is once again big in one state and pretty insignificant in 49 others. Alabama has the better defense, but there are three phases to football and Auburn is clearly better in the other two. In short, Auburn is the better team and the Tigers should win. Auburn 23, Alabama 10

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We'll call the Ken Darby-Kenny Irons running game duel a virtual standoff, so we'll say the team that passes the best wins. LSU showed how to get it done against the sturdy Tide defense, pitching and catching behind a cool customer quarterback with a howitzer and a strong receiving corps. The question is, can Brandon Cox be as calm and precise against the pressure as JaMarcus Russell was. It's hard to forget Joe Kines' defense shutting out those Auburn NFL draft picks in the first half last year. Advantage Alabama defense.

Alabama 20, Auburn 17

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Growing up in Alabama, Iron Bowl predictions among friends each year were fun but wildly unrealistic, much like the "Saturday Night Live" skit where the Chicago Bears fans, over bratwurst and beer, would pick "Da Bears" to destroy every conceivable opponent. With age hopefully comes maturity, so I will try to demonstrate journalistic objectivity. My prediction is based on a simple equation: The Tide defense is as good as I've ever watched, but its offense is anemic without Tyrone Prothro. The Tigers, meanwhile, are now solid on both sides of the ball, and with heavy doses of hard-running Kenny Irons, a solid passing attack, home field and (maybe) a rejuvenated kicker, will have the edge. Auburn 17, Alabama 14

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Auburn's balance on offense and defense will prevail in the end. Alabama's defense is up to the task, but the offense is not.

Auburn 14, Alabama 10

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Auburn and Alabama have played five common opponents in the SEC. The Tigers and the Crimson Tide have identical 4-1 records against those five clubs with both teams losing overtime decisions to LSU. The significant difference between the Tigers and the Tide is on the scoreboard where Auburn has outscored those five SEC teams 154-47 while Alabama's scoring advantage was 104-53. The numbers indicate the Tigers have an overall edge on the Tide and it's the numbers that count. Auburn 20, Alabama 13

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If you're an Alabama fan, you're likely prone to obsess over numbers and tradition and somehow find a mystical path to victory in the Iron Bowl. How about this? Alabama is 24-1-1 when holding Auburn under 10 points. Tradition is also nice, but the problem with all of this is that the Bear, the Snake, Joe Namath, Lee Roy Jordan, Johnny Musso, Gene Stallings, Jay Barker, the 1992 defense and wishful thinking will have nothing to do with what happens on Saturday. If you're an Auburn fan, you're likely prone to obsess over Alabama instead of your own team. But that's OK, since the one thing that both sides have in common is paranoia. As for the game itself, it's simple -- the best team and the best running game almost always wins. Auburn has the better team and will be able to run the ball better than Alabama. Auburn 17, Alabama 13

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The Tide defense will present the toughest test of the season for Auburn's offense, which has grown more powerful than anyone could have imagined after an ugly performance in the opener. The defense has had serious breakdowns in the last two weeks, but Alabama hasn't convincingly moved the ball since Tyrone Prothro's injury. Auburn 20, Alabama 13