The most overated teams in College football

[AWK 0]

T10. UCLA – Save for Washington and Washington State, which didn’t qualify, the Pac-10 doesn’t fare particularly well in this discussion.  Witness UCLA, one of the most difficult programs to size up each year.  When you think up they’re up, they’re down.  And when you think they’re down, they wind up winning 10 games, such as last year.  The Bruins have historically done an awful job of living up to their talent, failing to maintain preseason rankings 75% of the time and dropping completely out of the polls nearly once every two years.  From 1989 to 1995, UCLA received preseason love from the voters five times, yet ended just one of those seasons in the Top 25.

*Composite Score: - 9.96

T10. Texas – Alright, it’s damn tough to sell Texas as overrated with last year’s national championship still fresh in our minds, however, since 1971, this has, by no measure, been one of the most consistent programs in the country.  The ‘Horns get weighed down by 1976, 1988, 1991 and 1997, four losing seasons in the face of lofty preseason predictions. Good thing for Mack Brown.  Remove the coach’s tenure from the record books, and Texas is just behind Michigan State, or dangerously close to being college football’s most overrated school of the last 35 years. 

*Composite Score: -9.96

9. Colorado – Bookended around Colorado’s national prominence in the 1990s has been a trend of mediocrity and missed targets.  In its three preseason poll appearances in the 1970s, the Buffs could only manage a single bowl game.  And since 1996, they’ve been ranked five times, and finished below expectations each year.  Voters finally cooled on Colorado after the 2000 campaign, when they sunk to 3-8, the school’s sorriest performance in 16 years.   

*Composite Score: -10.33

8. Notre Dame – Rejoice, Irish haters.  The 35-year evidence bears out your long-held belief that Notre Dame football gets way more credit in the polls than it deserves.  The Irish have been ranked in 30 preseasons since 1971, but have been able to maintain or improve upon that projection a mere eight times.  And on 11 occasions, they slid completely off the charts by the time the final bowl game had been played.  The last three times Notre Dame was ranked in the preseasonâ€â€1999, 2001 and 2003â€â€it failed to manufacture more than five wins.

*Composite Score: -10.40

7. Auburn – Remember, this is a 35-year review, not just a recent peek at history.  The Tigers have vexed experts the last few years, but from 1971 to 1998, they were nearly three times more likely to go south than north when beginning the season ranked.  And the declines were often precipitous.  The 1973, 1975, 1980, 1991 and 1998 editions all opened the year ranked, but failed to even have winning records, a surefire way to earn the distinction of being one of college football’s most overrated programs. 

*Composite Score: -11.19

6. North Carolina – Carolina has had 11 chances since 1971 to prove they belong in the national forum in football, but has never really soared past preseason poll expectations.  Now, they were outstanding in the early 1980s under Dick Crum, going 37-9 to open the decade, but that surprised no one.  What did catch observers off guard were the 1973 and 1978 teams, both of which began the season in the Top 20, but ended it below .500. 

*Composite Score: -11.36

5. Arkansas – Under Houston Nutt, the Hogs have earned a reputation as a plucky, overachieving bunch, but that’s a stark contrast to the early days of this study, when the program was more likely to tank than remain ranked.  Arkansas broke voters’ straws in 1990 by going from No. 14 in the preseason to 3-8, the school’s first non-winning year in a quarter of a century.  Since then, they’ve gained the confidence of preseason pollsters just once, in 1999.

*Composite Score: -11.40

4. Pittsburgh – Pitt was far more relevant to the rankings in the 1970s and 1980s, when players like Hugh Green, Tony Dorsett and Dan Marino called the Steel City home.  Over the past two decades, however, voters have tabbed the Panthers just five times in the summer, and considering their performance, the lack of respect was warranted.  In four of those years, they failed to remain in the polls, marked by a pair of 3-7-1 disasters in 1984 and 1990.  Dave Wannstedt’s first Pitt team began 2005 No. 23 in the country, but only managed five wins in a forgettable return home for the coach.

*Composite Score: -11.71

3. Arizona State – The Sun Devils have long been one of college football’s most schizophrenic programs, underachieving when big things are predicted and catching everyone by surprise when little is expected.  They regularly outperformed forecasts in the first half of the 1970s, but gave a harbinger of the future in 1976, going 4-7 after beginning the season No. 3 in the country and riding a 13-game winning streak.  Of the 17 times since 1971 that ASU began a season ranked, they ended 10 of those years somewhere on the outskirts of the Top 25.     

*Composite Score: - 11.94

2. Wisconsin – The Badgers didn’t become a preseason player until the mid-1990s, but they’ve been a fixture ever since.  Whether that’s been warranted is up for debate.  After playing the role of media darlings in 1998 and 1999 with unexpected Big Ten crowns and Rose Bowl triumphs, they’ve been disappointing ever since.  Wisconsin got the nod five straight years after beating Stanford 17-9 in the 2000 Rose Bowl, but underachieved noticeably in four of those seasons.  The Pasadena afterglow finally faded, pollsters, for the first time since 1996, gave the Badgers the cold shoulder in 2005.  And, naturally, hard-to-figure Wisky responded with 10 wins and a No. 15 ranking in the final AP poll.

*Composite Score: -12.50

The Most Overrated Team Has Been ...

1. Michigan State – No matter how good they look or how many starters are back, do not do it.  Do not champion the Spartans, America’s most overrated college football program.  Resist that temptation and you’ll prove wiser than your peers in the end.  Ten times since 1971, Michigan State has been ranked in the preseason.  In nine of those years, they ended the season unranked.  And there are some real clunkers in the school vault, including Bobby Williams’ last team, which opened 2002 at No. 17, yet could only manage four victories and a host of off-field missteps.   

*Composite Score: -19.80

Here is the quote from the frontpage:

The Most Overrated Team ...  ... isn't Auburn, but it's not far off. 31 teams have been ranked in ten or more preseason AP polls since 1971. Which have been the most overrated and underrated when compared to the final results? Since the polls shape the season, this is important.

CFN

[tigerfan1234 0]

Yeah I read that article and it really pissed me off. I am not saying that I don't agree with the writers assesments in some ways, but we have had some great teams over that time frame. Auburn has a top twenty winning percentage all time. Auburn has a winning record in bowl games. Auburn puts a ridiculous amount of guys in the NFL. Auburn has a winning record against every SEC team except for two, I think. I can understand that because we have not won the big one and have faltered a few times with expectations we do not belong among the nation's most storied programs. But, Auburn has been a force to be reckoned with throughout its' history and I think it is an insult to call us one of the most overrrated teams in all of college football. Complete hogwash. Auburn is not one of the all-time greats like Notre Dame, Michigan, Ohio State, USC, Alabama, Texas, or Oklahoma, but we are certainly better than 85% of NCAA football teams. I know listing Alabama might chap some of you guys, but The Bear won a ridiculous amount of games during his tenure and kicked our butts for a good ten years. I hate Bama, but can't deny their achievements on the field.

[SouthLink02 8]

About time someone finally showed that UGA and the "over-rated" label got thrown out the door especially as of late.

[CircleDrill 178]

I see two things in this article. One is the "jinx factor" people that think if we have high pre-season expectations we are doomed to fail. The other is the people that are pissed off after reading this and want to go all the way to prove that it's a new day on the Plains.

[DKW 86 7,431]

All I can say is that 73, 75 and 80 were all BD, Before Dye.

What about 30 or 25 years?

[WaReAgLe83 0]

That's a huge gap between Michigan State and everyone else on the list. It does fit them though; it seems like every year they come sliding out at 5 or 6 wins when they could've done much better.

[TigerOne 1,148]

is being overrated worse than not being rated at all?

[penguin149 391]

Would this article be similar to the weatherman being upset because the weather didn't perform as he predicted?

Maybe the sportswriters don't know their own butts from a hole in the ground?!

[kingfish 73]

All I can say is that 73, 75 and 80 were all BD, Before Dye.

What about 30 or 25 years?

238698[/snapback]

Good point 1973, 1975, and 1980 were over 25 years ago and pre-Dye era ... 1998 was the split year with half-pint and Oliver. These years are clearly not representative of the period. And going beyond 25 years is a real stretch ... sounds more like the ancient history musings of the UATers.

[Wishbone 0]

The 1984 and 1985 seasons hurt us because they were similar to the 2003 season.

[AUesquire 1]

As for the 98' season, I recall walking out of the stadium after the Iron Bowl commenting that this is the least amount of overall talent I had ever seen at Auburn. It was just painfully obvious that the talent level and numbers had dwindled to the point that we had little or no business competing against SEC teams. CTT openly said as much when he came to town.

We were a one-man show with D. Craig up until that point. I guess I'm just wondering what "Experts" looked at us and thought we were worthy of a top 20, or whatever we were. Anyone have any info. as to where were ranked coming into 98'?

[Wishbone 0]

I don't think it was the talent that was bad, but more like the physical conditioning and attitude of some of the players and that all goes back to Bowden.

[johnwegl 11]

The attitude was terrible. Lot’s of shady people on the team.

I would love to see how many players got drafted during Bowden's time compared to Tuberville's. I'm sure there are more from CTT, but by how much AND of those drafted when Bowden was around, how many of those was recruited by Dye?

[tejasjack 0]

I dug up some other info on AU in historical terms as well...interestingly, AU is #10 in winning percentage (when you back out the Marshall's of the world who haven't played D-1 ball all that long...but were added back in when appropriate)over 50, 25 and 5 years...three terms that I chose at random to represent the modern era of college football. I also wrote the author and pointed out that every year he cited was either a coaching turnover year or a meltdown year due to some distraction; ie Eric Ramsey. For us to have been consistently #10 means that we also had to overachieve in the same or better fashion than our supposed under-achievement years.

Bammer over the past 25 years, BTW, is #20 and is not in the top 30 over the past 5 years. UGA is also behind us at the 50 and 25 year marks and is slightly better than us over the past 5 years...although we have dominated the series with them as late also (5-2 AU over the past 7 meetings).

[SouthLink02 8]

UGA is also behind us at the 50 and 25 year marks and is slightly better than us over the past 5 years

Talk about close

From 1981-2005

AU - 208-86-5

UGA - 209-87-5

1980-2005

AU - 213-92-5

UGA - 221-87-5

[WarTiger 3,910]

going back to 1869, Auburn is 17th in winning percentage....that's 137 years folks.... Not to shabby and hardly a performance from someone that is overrated.

50 years....11th

50 years

35 years...16th

35 years

25 years...10th (marshall doesn't have nearly the same number of games at the D1 level in this time period that everybody else has...so they disqualify themselves as belonging among these teams...

25 years

10 years....21st..

10 years

5 years...10th

5 years

interesting that this person totally dismisses all the above periods of time, not to mention the overall standings in winning percentage that has us in the all time top 20.

[AWK 0]

Yeah, I would love to know his exact formula.