The Brexit Vote

[TitanTiger 20,472]

Another perspective:

This was the day the British people defied their jailers

TIM STANLEY

Tim Stanley 24 JUNE 2016 • 5:00AM

There were two referendums on Thursday. The first was on membership of the EU. The second was on the British establishment. Leave won both, and the world will never be the same again.

It’s impossible to overstate how remarkable this victory is. Twenty years ago, Euroscepticism was a backbench Tory rebellion and a political cult. It was a dispute located firmly on the Right with little appeal to Labour voters. It took Ukip to drag it into the centre of political life – given momentum by the issue of immigration – and slowly it has emerged as a lightning rod for anti-establishment activism.

Even so, the circumstances of the referendum were not ripe for victory. David Cameron only called it to hold his own party together; and once it was called, he decided to turn the British and global establishment against it. Out came the Treasury, the IMF, even the President of the United States to argue that Britain had to stay. This was textbook politics, how things used to be done – and it worked back in 1975 when the UK voted overwhelmingly on good advice to stay in the Common Market.

But this time the establishment consensus coincided with a historic loss of faith in the experts. These were the people who failed to predict the Credit Crunch, who missed the greatest economic disaster to hit us since the Great Depression. And we were supposed to believe them? Slowly the consensus came to resemble not just a conspiracy but, worse, a confederacy of dunces.

Even so – even as Leave pulled ahead in the polls – it was still impossible to think it could win. The murder of Jo Cox convinced me that it wouldn’t. I suspected that it would cement in most people’s minds a link between Brexit and risk: Leave forced this referendum, Leave created the febrile debate, Leave had to bear some responsibility for the air of chaos. Even I would’ve preferred the referendum to be cancelled. The whole thing made me feel sick to my stomach. There was talk of Leave support wilting and turnout dropping, while Remain was surging. Remain’s Project Fear evolved, inexplicably, into Project Tolerance. Now a vote for the EU was a vote for love. And if the British couldn’t be terrified into voting Remain, surely they could be guilted into doing it?

No. People wanted to have their say and they did. Up and down the country they defied the experts and went with their conscience. Labour voters most of all: the northeast rebelled against a century of Labour leadership. I am astonished. Staggered. Humbled. I should never have lost faith in my countrymen. Those bold, brave, beautiful British voters.

Why did they do it? That, we’ll pick apart in the next few weeks. I think that Leave genuinely ran the better campaign, more hopeful and upbeat. Immigration mattered a great deal – although one YouGov poll ranked it third behind democracy and the economy. It’s possible that voters grasped the essential point about this referendum better than we the commentators did. It was a vote of confidence in Britain. Should we run our affairs or should we delegate it to foreign bureaucrats? When I was leaving my polling station, I said to a chap: “I found voting quite emotional.” He replied that this was the day we got our freedom back. That’s how it feels for millions of Britons.

Not how it feels, perhaps, for Londoners or Scots. We’ve seen a new division emerge within our country. Scotland increasingly defines its politics as Left-wing and Europhile. London is simply a different country: the metropolis triumphant. The young may have overwhelmingly voted Remain, too – but, hey, they will grow older someday. The young who voted Remain in 1975 overwhelmingly voted Leave in 2016. In part, perhaps, because they didn’t like being characterised as ancient bigots by the Remain side. Top tip for winning future elections: don’t call the electorate “thick” or “losers”. It, er, turns them off.

What happens now? We drink. We be happy. We sing a song. Then we piece back the country and get on with the great project of building the British century. We voted the right way because we’re a nation with a sense of destiny. The world is ours now. Go get it.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/24/this-was-the-day-the-british-people-defied-their-jailers/

[AURaptor 1,122]

These doubters are just reacting to the Leftist horror @ what's happened. To some, sovereignty = a vote for racism & bigotry.

Absurd

[homersapien 11,367]

This going to be interesting. The UK has a great opportunity, but they have to play it right. Being the 5th largest economy in the world they have a strong hand. The EU needed them more than the UK needed them. I expect some blackballing a bit by the global crowd - including our current president (who should already be there discussing a one on one trade deal). This will hurt them and the markets in the short term until the rest of the EU has to admit they cannot live completely off of Germany.

UK has control of their own courts without oversight of the EU judiciary. They can make trade deals that suit them. They no longer have to play by the over regulation of the EU. The individuals have more power now without belonging to some distant bureaucracy.

First things first - the powers that be still have to approve the exit and there is A LOT of red tape to get through before they can be independent again. Think of it as if Texas gained independence and was suddenly a "foreign nation". There is a lot to set up and put in place.

They were the 5th largest economy in the world.

Have they fallen already?

They are falling as we speak. But it will probably take two more years before they are actually out of the EU.

http://www.economist...c=permar|image1

http://www.economist...ist-explains-23

Markets abhor uncertainty. They worship the golden calf of predictability. I think it's far to early to say Britain will drop dramatically and shrink based on initial panic. We'll have to see what happens when the dust settles before making such a determination.

I am not saying it based on "initial panic". But, according to most economists, a recession is in their immediate future.

China has more population in a few of it's cities than Britain. How much leverage is Britain going to bring to the table in negotiating with China (for example)?

But you are right, we will need to wait and see what happens.

[TitanTiger 20,472]

Oh no what have we done?!

Always remember your vote counts people. Too late for buyer's remorse now.

One lady expressed that. It could have been that the "remain" side were the main people Googling that now that their worst fears were realized. Or it could have been "leavers" wanting to see what the world was saying about the result of the vote and what they were saying the consequences were.

She's not alone:

There will be a lot of this as the implications sink in. One wonders if the referendum would have the same outcome if held again next year or the year after.

Anecdotes are still not evidence of some widespread buyer's remorse. People in general avoid change unless they feel compelled to by an external force. It's certainly possible that all the doomsday proclamations of leaving will come true and the British people will regret this. With the turmoil in the markets right now, you probably do have some nervousness. But if the markets settle down and adjust to the new norm, and Britain has more autonomy back that it once ceded to Brussels, it also possible that a year or so from now the "Leave" side would be even larger.

All I'm saying is, don't overfeed at the panic trough.

[homersapien 11,367]

Oh no what have we done?!

Always remember your vote counts people. Too late for buyer's remorse now.

That's what happens when you vote your emotions instead of your mind.

[TexasTiger 12,835]

I don't have a strong opinion on this, but my understanding is that the vote is advisory. If public opinion truly and significantly shifts between now and the next election, who knows?

[maxwere 82]

Oh no what have we done?!

Always remember your vote counts people. Too late for buyer's remorse now.

That's what happens when you vote your emotions instead of your mind.

Isn't it enough to simply celebrate democracy? Decisions by the people, for the people. Bask in the beautiful democratic process. The people decide their fate not the big ECB. Isn't this what ICHY and others have been clamoring for? Process, not outcomes.

[TitanTiger 20,472]

Perhaps it's just me, but I've always sort of thought the EU was overly ambitious and doomed to failure. I just didn't know how long it would take before the fissures would begin to show. Trying to reconcile just the cultures of Eastern and Western Europe is hard enough. But even in Western Europe, the attitude and political history of Great Britain vs Belgium, France, Germany or Spain just seemed unwieldy. It's far too reliant on a couple of strong economies and the newer members don't really help much. In many ways, they are a drag on the whole thing.

I just didn't see how it was going to work long term. I could be wrong. Maybe Parliament will use this vote to play hardball with Brussels and negotiate a much better deal for Britain and the EU will live on for decades or centuries to come. Or maybe it will be the leak in the dyke that ends up undoing the EU altogether within the next 15 years.

[AURaptor 1,122]

Oh no what have we done?!

Always remember your vote counts people. Too late for buyer's remorse now.

That's what happens when you vote your emotions instead of your mind.

LOL

[AUDub 11,147]

Oh no what have we done?!

Always remember your vote counts people. Too late for buyer's remorse now.

That's what happens when you vote your emotions instead of your mind.

And it was a very emotionally driven vote. Them's the breaks though.

[AURaptor 1,122]

I don't have a strong opinion on this, but my understanding is that the vote is advisory. If public opinion truly and significantly shifts between now and the next election, who knows?

? Are you saying that you think his vote was only for show, and is not binding? Dude, the people voted. They're leaving the EU. It's not that hard to understand.

[AUDub 11,147]

Perhaps it's just me, but I've always sort of thought the EU was overly ambitious and doomed to failure. I just didn't know how long it would take before the fissures would begin to show. Trying to reconcile just the cultures of Eastern and Western Europe is hard enough. But even in Western Europe, the attitude and political history of Great Britain vs Belgium, France, Germany or Spain just seemed unwieldy. It's far too reliant on a couple of strong economies and the newer members don't really help much. In many ways, they are a drag on the whole thing.

I just didn't see how it was going to work long term. I could be wrong. Maybe Parliament will use this vote to play hardball with Brussels and negotiate a much better deal for Britain and the EU will live on for decades or centuries to come. Or maybe it will be the leak in the dyke that ends up undoing the EU altogether within the next 15 years.

I've talked to a few Brits and they were pretty optimistic that the remain vote would win out and the EU would tweak things a bit to make it better. They don't think the idea of the EU was bad. Just the execution. The leave vote will come as a shock for them. I'll let you know when I speak to them.

[icanthearyou 4,462]

Oh no what have we done?!

Always remember your vote counts people. Too late for buyer's remorse now.

That's what happens when you vote your emotions instead of your mind.

Isn't it enough to simply celebrate democracy? Decisions by the people, for the people. Bask in the beautiful democratic process. The people decide their fate not the big ECB. Isn't this what ICHY and others have been clamoring for? Process, not outcomes.

SOME truth to that sentiment. However, grossly simplified.

[TexasTiger 12,835]

Perhaps it's just me, but I've always sort of thought the EU was overly ambitious and doomed to failure. I just didn't know how long it would take before the fissures would begin to show. Trying to reconcile just the cultures of Eastern and Western Europe is hard enough. But even in Western Europe, the attitude and political history of Great Britain vs Belgium, France, Germany or Spain just seemed unwieldy. It's far too reliant on a couple of strong economies and the newer members don't really help much. In many ways, they are a drag on the whole thing.

I just didn't see how it was going to work long term. I could be wrong. Maybe Parliament will use this vote to play hardball with Brussels and negotiate a much better deal for Britain and the EU will live on for decades or centuries to come. Or maybe it will be the leak in the dyke that ends up undoing the EU altogether within the next 15 years.

I think it has been a bit ambitious. The challenge now is that despite its flaws, it's provided a framework on which decades of decisions have been made and how the dominoes now fall is unpredictable. When people are frustrated they often take what they like about a structure for granted, not fully making the connection. It will be interesting to see how it all unfolds.

[TitanTiger 20,472]

I don't have a strong opinion on this, but my understanding is that the vote is advisory. If public opinion truly and significantly shifts between now and the next election, who knows?

? Are you saying that you think his vote was only for show, and is not binding? Dude, the people voted. They're leaving the EU. It's not that hard to understand.

I think it's happening regardless, but he's not wrong about the legalities:

http://www.businessinsider.com/green-eu-referendum-not-legally-binding-brexit-2016-6

[TexasTiger 12,835]

I don't have a strong opinion on this, but my understanding is that the vote is advisory. If public opinion truly and significantly shifts between now and the next election, who knows?

? Are you saying that you think his vote was only for show, and is not binding? Dude, the people voted. They're leaving the EU. It's not that hard to understand.

Even simple complexity baffles you:

http://www.businessinsider.com/green-eu-referendum-not-legally-binding-brexit-2016-6

Ignoring the will of the people has obvious political peril. But the referendum carries no legal trigger, per se.

[homersapien 11,367]

Oh no what have we done?!

Always remember your vote counts people. Too late for buyer's remorse now.

That's what happens when you vote your emotions instead of your mind.

Isn't it enough to simply celebrate democracy? Decisions by the people, for the people. Bask in the beautiful democratic process. The people decide their fate not the big ECB. Isn't this what ICHY and others have been clamoring for? Process, not outcomes.

Sure! The people have spoken. I'd be the last to dismiss the results based only on my opinion. So let them bask in the beautiful economic bed they have made for themselves - for better or worse.

But tell me, do you think it's possible for the majority in a popular democracy to make a mistake?

Should we celebrate that mistake simply because it was created by a (relatively narrow) majority?

[AUDub 11,147]

I don't have a strong opinion on this, but my understanding is that the vote is advisory. If public opinion truly and significantly shifts between now and the next election, who knows?

? Are you saying that you think his vote was only for show, and is not binding? Dude, the people voted. They're leaving the EU. It's not that hard to understand.

I think it's happening regardless, but he's not wrong about the legalities:

http://www.businessi...g-brexit-2016-6

David Cameron not immediately invoking article 50 this morning has given them at least three months to hash something out. Negotiations will probably continues into the new year. Maybe public opinion will shift significantly between now and then. Once they invoke the article though it's all she wrote. Still hope to avoid it. Britain in the EU is better for us and Britain economically.

[AURaptor 1,122]

Cameron did not just step down on a mere suggestion.

[80Tiger 899]

I don't have a strong opinion on this, but my understanding is that the vote is advisory. If public opinion truly and significantly shifts between now and the next election, who knows?

? Are you saying that you think his vote was only for show, and is not binding? Dude, the people voted. They're leaving the EU. It's not that hard to understand.

Even simple complexity baffles you:

http://www.businessi...g-brexit-2016-6

Ignoring the will of the people has obvious political peril. But the referendum carries no legal trigger, per se.

I would guess the original vote to join carried no legal authority either.

[TitanTiger 20,472]

I don't have a strong opinion on this, but my understanding is that the vote is advisory. If public opinion truly and significantly shifts between now and the next election, who knows?

? Are you saying that you think his vote was only for show, and is not binding? Dude, the people voted. They're leaving the EU. It's not that hard to understand.

I think it's happening regardless, but he's not wrong about the legalities:

http://www.businessi...g-brexit-2016-6

David Cameron not immediately invoking article 50 this morning has given them at least three months to hash something out. Negotiations will probably continues into the new year. Maybe public opinion will shift significantly between now and then. Once they invoke the article though it's all she wrote. Still hope to avoid it. Britain in the EU is better for us and Britain economically.

If they do decide to leave though, Britain to me would be a prime candidate to strike a free trade deal with. To me, free trade should be among relative equals, with similar environment and labor regulations, not something that you strike with fledgling economies so that US businesses can have new access to cheap labor without incurring tariffs on goods. Those economies often aren't burdened by caring about clean air or water, or proper waste disposal or worker rights. You can't exploit manufacturing labor by moving to England.

[TitanTiger 20,472]

Cameron did not just step down on a mere suggestion.

He stepped down because he failed. It does not change the fact that this vote is not legally binding.

[TitanTiger 20,472]

I don't have a strong opinion on this, but my understanding is that the vote is advisory. If public opinion truly and significantly shifts between now and the next election, who knows?

? Are you saying that you think his vote was only for show, and is not binding? Dude, the people voted. They're leaving the EU. It's not that hard to understand.

Even simple complexity baffles you:

http://www.businessi...g-brexit-2016-6

Ignoring the will of the people has obvious political peril. But the referendum carries no legal trigger, per se.

I would guess the original vote to join carried no legal authority either.

No, previous referendums had legal triggers as part of the wording. This one did not.

...The relevant legislation did not provide for the referendum result to have any formal trigger effect. The referendum is advisory rather than mandatory. The 2011 referendum on electoral reform did have an obligation on the government to legislate in the event of a “yes” vote (the vote was “no” so this did not matter). But no such provision was included in the EU referendum legislation.

...What happens between a Leave vote and any Article 50 notification will be driven by politics. The conventional wisdom is that, of course, a vote for Brexit would have to be respected. (This is the same conventional wisdom which told us that, of course, Jeremy Corbyn would not be elected Labour leader and that, of course, Donald Trump would not be the Republican nominee.) To not do so would be “unthinkable” and “political suicide” and so on.

http://blogs.ft.com/david-allen-green/2016/06/14/can-the-united-kingdom-government-legally-disregard-a-vote-for-brexit/

[AUDub 11,147]

I don't have a strong opinion on this, but my understanding is that the vote is advisory. If public opinion truly and significantly shifts between now and the next election, who knows?

? Are you saying that you think his vote was only for show, and is not binding? Dude, the people voted. They're leaving the EU. It's not that hard to understand.

Even simple complexity baffles you:

http://www.businessi...g-brexit-2016-6

Ignoring the will of the people has obvious political peril. But the referendum carries no legal trigger, per se.

I would guess the original vote to join carried no legal authority either.

when they joined there was no referendum. There was a referendum shortly thereafter in 1975. They voted 67% remain.

[homersapien 11,367]

Oh no what have we done?!

Always remember your vote counts people. Too late for buyer's remorse now.

That's what happens when you vote your emotions instead of your mind.

LOL

Not a surprising reaction from the mindless.