StatTiger

High & lows and statistical goals

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Here are some high and lows from the 2015 season, which might be bullet points to monitor in 2016. Also included are a few statistical goals for success from 2009-2015.

  • Jeremy Johnson was the nation's 18th most efficient passer once inside the opponent's red zone last season with a QB rating of 220.4. This was No. 1 in the Southeastern Conference. Johnson was 16 of 23 in passing for 7 touchdowns and no interceptions. On the flip side, Sean White was one of the worst, compiling a rating of only 34.8 from his 13 pass attempts inside the red zone.

 

  • Outside the red zone, Sean White proved to be the more efficient passer with a rating of 130.0 to Jeremy Johnson's 113.3 rating outside the red zone.

 

  • Over the past 30 years, nearly 1/3 of Auburn's offensive touchdowns came from outside the red zone. Last season only 17.9% came from outside the red zone, which was second to last (2007) during the past three decades of Auburn football.

 

  • One of the reasons for Auburn's lack of scoring outside the red zone was the inability to generate big plays. Auburn dropped from No. 18 in 2014 to No. 93 in 2015, when it came to producing plays of 30-yards or more.

 

  • On the flip side of big plays, Auburn's defense improved from No. 60 during 2014 to No. 5 nationally in allowing plays of 30-yards or more.

 

  • Auburn actually improved upon their yards per rush inside the red zone in 2015. Auburn was No. 71 during 2014, improving to No. 43 in 2015. Auburn was No. 1 nationally during 2013 and No. 26 during 2010.

 

  • From 2009-2015, Auburn compiled a 35-8 record in games they averaged more yards per play on first down than the opponent. The Tigers are 25-24 in games they lost the first down battle.

 

  • Coaches always speak of winning the line of scrimmage. From 2009-2015, Auburn is 38-5 in games they do not lose the tackle for loss battle and 22-27, when they lose it.

 

  • Turnovers can change the outcome of a football game in a heart beat. From 2009-2015, Auburn is 45-10 in games they did not lose the turnover battle and 14-23, when they did.

 

  • From 2009-2015, Auburn is 48-4 in games they have more rushing yardage and rush attempts than the opponent.

 

  • From 2009-2015, Auburn is 46-8 in games they win the 3rd down battle and 14-24 in games they don't.

 

  • From 1996-2015, Auburn is 57-3 in games they did not lose the TFL, turnover or 1st down battle during the same game. The three losses were to USC 2002, UGA 2002 and Ole Miss 2003.

 

War Eagle!
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So combine this with your other post, does that mean we use Sean White and Jovon R until the red zone and then bring in Jeremy Johnson in the red zone?  And use JFIII to mix it up in either situation?  Just kidding, prefer one regular all the way but would be interesting since JJ has a bit more running threat which helps in the red zone.

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So basically when the field shrinks JJ makes plays.  When he has room to throw the ball and make big plays he makes poor decisions.  

1.  Is this play calling?

2.  Is it due to the lack of playmakers in the open field?

I think we get better on both ends.  CGM will be calling plays again full time and we have recruited TRUE receivers.  I see our 30+ yard plays increasing this year.  

Offense looks to be healthy again and the defense should get the ball back more.  Even numbered years are our thing!!!! 2004 and 2010 War Eagle! 

Edited by Plunkit

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We will see what CGM can do this year.  He has a track record of great offenses.  1 year at ASU was not enough HC experience.  I think he is settling in and will have us rolling soon.  As Gus would say "I like where we're at".  

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2 hours ago, Plunkit said:

So basically when the field shrinks JJ makes plays.  When he has room to throw the ball and make big plays he makes poor decisions.  

1.  Is this play calling?

2.  Is it due to the lack of playmakers in the open field?

I think we get better on both ends.  CGM will be calling plays again full time and we have recruited TRUE receivers.  I see our 30+ yard plays increasing this year.  

Offense looks to be healthy again and the defense should get the ball back more.  Even numbered years are our thing!!!! 2004 and 2010 War Eagle! 

Play calling was the primary issue but based on QB and WR play.

Gus intended on opening up the pass-offense to start the 2015 season with plenty of trust in what they believed JJ was capable of as a rising junior in the offense. Here are some numbers to consider...

2013, Auburn targeted 30.5% of their passes beyond 10-yds of the LOS during Nick Marshall's first 2 starts. During his last 11 starts, 40.4% of his pass attempts were beyond 10-yds of the LOS. During his last 4 starts of the 2013 season, 47.5% of his pass attempts were beyond 10-yds of the LOS.

2015, 39.6% of JJ's pass attempts were beyond 10-yds of the LOS during his first 2 starts. After the high number of interceptions, the play-calling was scaled back the remainder of the season with JJ in at QB. For the remainder of the season, 29.4% of his pass attempts were beyond 10-yds of the LOS.

Once JJ was benched, Sean White was slowly worked into the offense. During his first 2 starts, 26.3% of his pass attempts were beyond 10-yds of the LOS. During his remaining starts, it increased to 42.3%.

Once SW went down with his injuries, JJ returned as the starter but the pass-offense was extremely conservative. During JJ's last 5 games, nearly 55% of his pass attempts were within 5-yards of the LOS. During SW's last 5 games at QB, 36.5% of his pass attempts were within 5-yards of the LOS. It was clear Auburn's coaches felt more comfortable with SW at QB during the 2015 season.

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"On the flip side of big plays, Auburn's defense improved fromNo. 60 during 2014 to No. 5nationally in allowing plays of 30-yards or more."

 

Wow

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Thanks stat! (IMO our being only #26 on per avg rush inside the red zone with Cam in 2010 is stunning). For success in Gus' O we need him to open up his play book and for him to do that, we need significant yardage on first down. That IMO is THE stat we need for success on O.   

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26 minutes ago, aucanucktiger said:

Thanks stat! (IMO our being only #26 on per avg rush inside the red zone with Cam in 2010 is stunning). For success in Gus' O we need him to open up his play book and for him to do that, we need significant yardage on first down. That IMO is THE stat we need for success on O.   

That can be said about most offenses .....If you can field an offense that can get significant yardage on first down consistently then you will have success.

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What cannot be said about most offenses is the part about the Gus playbook (and his choice of when to use what) that seems to get opened up when we succeed on first down.

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10 minutes ago, aucanucktiger said:

What cannot be said about most offenses is the part about the Gus playbook (and his choice of when to use what) that seems to get opened up when we succeed on first down.

No seems to about it.  He's flat out admitted that his whole offense hangs on first down success.

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38 minutes ago, lionheartkc said:

No seems to about it.  He's flat out admitted that his whole offense hangs on first down success.

He damn well better learn to adapt and adjust the playbook.  Because that predictable run it - run it - run it on almost every first down series has been recognized by every fan and my great auntie.  And if Auntie knows what play we're running, then so does every defense we face.

I still have hope that Gus will shake things in the next year or two and try some new concepts on offense.  He's got tons of talent at his disposal.

 

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1 hour ago, lionheartkc said:

No seems to about it.  He's flat out admitted that his whole offense hangs on first down success.

This is weird because, I think Stat showed us at one point, that on first downs we run up the middle like 75-80% of the time or something obnoxious. How many times did CAP or Peyton Barber just ram the right guard straight in the back for a 2 yard gain over the last 2 seasons?

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21 minutes ago, Tiger said:

This is weird because, I think Stat showed us at one point, that on first downs we run up the middle like 75-80% of the time or something obnoxious. How many times did CAP or Peyton Barber just ram the right guard straight in the back for a 2 yard gain over the last 2 seasons?

And that is exactly why there have been noticeable drops each year in the speed of the offense.  I would actually be shocked if we don't see a whole new Gus when it comes to first down, this year, since he knows its slowing him down. 

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4 minutes ago, lionheartkc said:

And that is exactly why there have been noticeable drops each year in the speed of the offense.  I would actually be shocked if we don't see a whole new Gus when it comes to first down, this year, since he knows its slowing him down. 

I would be so happy if we start getting creative again on first downs.

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1 hour ago, Tiger said:

I would be so happy if we start getting creative again on first downs.

I'd be shocked...but happy. Very happy.

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23 hours ago, WDE_OxPx_2010 said:

"On the flip side of big plays, Auburn's defense improved fromNo. 60 during 2014 to No. 5nationally in allowing plays of 30-yards or more."

 

Wow

I'm suspicious of this. I wonder if it means that other offenses played conservatively against us because they knew we couldn't outscore them or would need a strange turnover to beat them.

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