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FUZZYAUFAN

2018 playoff - I’m calling it now

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I was thinking about the below scenario a couple weeks ago but just looked at the SEC schedule for next year to see if it was even possible. Here it is.

Florida wins the East beating Georgia and going 12-0

Georgia beats Auburn and finishes seconds in East at 11-1

Alabama goes 11-1 with only loss to Auburn. Finishes second in West

Auburn goes 11-1 and wins West

Auburn beats Florida in SEC Championship. 

SEC champ Auburn and one loss Florida, Georgia and Alabama all make playoff as all other conference champs have two losses. 

#1 seed Auburn beats #4 seed Georgia and #3 seed Alabam beats #2 seed Florida. 

Auburn beats Alabama to win National Championship. 

Yes, I know the odds would be astronomical. Wonder what odds you could get on a bet with above scenario. 

Just having some fun at the beginning of the long off season  

 

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That's quite a scenario you came up with. I'm thinking that if the losses fell like you have them I think Georgia would be the 2 seed since they would have the earliest loss. Bama might be 3rd due to their loss being earlier than Florida's loss making Florida 4th. Crazy to even to even think about. 

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Based on the ratings the other night, ESPN approves of this message.

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Although I want us to beat UGA.  They are the only team I care about beating.  Any day a UGA sports team loses, I am having a good day.  I am even rooting against their chess team if they had one.

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We lose to Washington, and Texas AM or LSU and then Alabama. Beat Georgia and give them their only regular season loss. Georgia beats number 1 Bama in Atlanta. The dogs start talking trash.We Finish 9-3. Play in the Peach Bowl again against Oklahoma and lose. Playoff is 1.Clemson, 2.Ohio State, 3.Georgia, 4.Alabama........NCG is Alabama vs Georgia II. Alabama gets revenge on Georgia and wins 18. 

Edited by AuCivilEng1

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19 minutes ago, TAYLORKEETON said:

I don’t know what to expect for the Washington game, honestly 

I can help you with that... expect us to face a mediocre defense and running game, but a top QB who will make us pay if we can't get penetration or our DBs don't play lights out. Also, if we do get penetration, expect every trick play in the books.

On our side of the ball, expect improved execution to this year, but it all hinges on our line.

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47 minutes ago, lionheartkc said:

I can help you with that... expect us to face a mediocre defense and running game, but a top QB who will make us pay if we can't get penetration or our DBs don't play lights out. Also, if we do get penetration, expect every trick play in the books.

On our side of the ball, expect improved execution to this year, but it all hinges on our line.

I actually expect a slight regression offensively for the Washington game. I think the offense will be very good by week 3 or 4, but I know better than to expect a Gus team to be on it offensively in game 1. 

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Sept. 1: vs. Washington (in Atlanta)

Unless Herb Hand performs a miracle on the Offensive Line I'd say there's a 50% chance we lose this one
Sept. 8: vs. Alabama State

We'll win here but knowing us it'll be a lot closer than it should be
Sept. 15: vs. LSU

I think we should win here. LSU looks to be heading in the wrong direction. No Guice, no Fournette, no problem
Sept. 22: vs. Arkansas

Arkansas is going to struggle mightily for the next year or two improving subpar recruiting, changing to a spread hurry up style, and adjusting the culture of losing. We should be fine here.
Sept. 29: vs. Southern Miss

Should win here.
Oct. 6: at Mississippi State

Not impressed with their coaching hire and he's definitely no Sumlin. We should be fine here.
Oct. 13: vs. Tennessee

We'll beat the Vols, now moving forward they're going to be tough in a few years. Another team molded after Alabama.
Oct. 20: at Ole Miss

We should be fine here. Ole Miss keeping Luke as their head coach was the easy way out.
Nov. 3: vs. Texas A&M

God this is going to be annoying having Jimbo at A&M. Recruiting is going to be even more competitive in the SEC. We should be fine for this year though.
Nov. 10: at Georgia

*Sighhhhhh* We will lose to Georgia next year. Fromm will continue to grow, our offense will look idiotic against the dawgs as they always do as they eat our offensive line for breakfast.
Nov. 17: vs. Liberty

We'll beat Liberty.
Nov. 24: at Alabama

I'm confident against Hurts, not so much when it comes to their rising sophomore quarterback. Again, I'm not confident our Offensive Line will come together well enough. I will say that Alabama was surprisingly weak this year to win the championship and they're losing a lot of key spots next year.

 

So that puts us at (9-3) for the season with two losses to SEC teams. Only way we make it into the playoffs is if they expand to eight teams. Our postseason play under Gus has been extremely disappointing anyways. His ability to choke has cost us a National Championship and a SEC championship.

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13 minutes ago, AuCivilEng1 said:

I actually expect a slight regression offensively for the Washington game. I think the offense will be very good by week 3 or 4, but I know better than to expect a Gus team to be on it offensively in game 1. 

See... this is what I mean when I talk about people latching on to a talking point that has no factual basis. Go back to 2014. We opened with 595 yards, 293 in the air against Arkansas even though we had a rebuilt line and a new #1 back. The offense has regressed every year that we have had a new QB, because, to this point, Gus hasn't been able to figure out his QB until he sees him live for several games (though, this year, a lot of is was Stidham trying to knock off the rust), but when we have the same QB, we run the same offense, and it's just a continuation of the past year.

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4 minutes ago, lionheartkc said:

See... this is what I mean when I talk about people latching on to a talking point that has no factual basis. Go back to 2014. We opened with 595 yards, 293 in the air against Arkansas even though we had a rebuilt line and a new #1 back. The offense has regressed every year that we have had a new QB, because, to this point, Gus hasn't been able to figure out his QB until he sees him live for several games (though, this year, a lot of is was Stidham trying to knock off the rust), but when we have the same QB, we run the same offense, and it's just a continuation of the past year.

You may be right. They may not regress at all. But there is a huge difference between that pathetic Arky team at home and Washington in Atlanta. 

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4 minutes ago, Zeek said:

Sept. 1: vs. Washington (in Atlanta)

Unless Herb Hand performs a miracle on the Offensive Line I'd say there's a 50% chance we lose this one
Sept. 8: vs. Alabama State

We'll win here but knowing us it'll be a lot closer than it should be
Sept. 15: vs. LSU

I think we should win here. LSU looks to be heading in the wrong direction. No Guice, no Fournette, no problem
Sept. 22: vs. Arkansas

Arkansas is going to struggle mightily for the next year or two improving subpar recruiting, changing to a spread hurry up style, and adjusting the culture of losing. We should be fine here.
Sept. 29: vs. Southern Miss

Should win here.
Oct. 6: at Mississippi State

Not impressed with their coaching hire and he's definitely no Sumlin. We should be fine here.
Oct. 13: vs. Tennessee

We'll beat the Vols, now moving forward they're going to be tough in a few years. Another team molded after Alabama.
Oct. 20: at Ole Miss

We should be fine here. Ole Miss keeping Luke as their head coach was the easy way out.
Nov. 3: vs. Texas A&M

God this is going to be annoying having Jimbo at A&M. Recruiting is going to be even more competitive in the SEC. We should be fine for this year though.
Nov. 10: at Georgia

*Sighhhhhh* We will lose to Georgia next year. Fromm will continue to grow, our offense will look idiotic against the dawgs as they always do as they eat our offensive line for breakfast.
Nov. 17: vs. Liberty

We'll beat Liberty.
Nov. 24: at Alabama

I'm confident against Hurts, not so much when it comes to their rising sophomore quarterback. Again, I'm not confident our Offensive Line will come together well enough. I will say that Alabama was surprisingly weak this year to win the championship and they're losing a lot of key spots next year.

 

So that puts us at (9-3) for the season with two losses to SEC teams. Only way we make it into the playoffs is if they expand to eight teams. Our postseason play under Gus has been extremely disappointing anyways. His ability to choke has cost us a National Championship and a SEC championship.

I agree with everything up until the defeatist attitude about Georgia. It will definitely be a fight next year, but they are losing Chubb, Michel, and Smith, arguably the three main reasons they were so good this year. Fromm is a good QB, but he's not carry the team good. I'm more worried about them in 2019 when their current recruiting class has a year under their belts.

bama is also a toss up. As you mentioned, they weren't that great this year, as the Iron Bowl and the need for some officiating help to win the championship proved, and they are losing some key personnel... but Tua is probably the best QB they've had in as long as I can remember. He's going to be a problem for everyone.

Finally, Gus did not choke in the National Championship. The team lost that one to another very good team, and I still stand by the fact that, had we not had a special teams player pull a hammy (nothing anyone could have predicted or prevented) we would have won.

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1 minute ago, AuCivilEng1 said:

You may be right. They may not regress at all. But there is a huge difference between that pathetic Arky team at home and Washington in Atlanta. 

I think you overestimate Washington. Other than their QB, they are basically that Arkansas team (who, incidentally, shut out #20 LSU and #8 Ole Miss that season).  Remember, the PAC 10 or 12 or whatever they call it, is weak. Just look at their bowl results.

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22 minutes ago, lionheartkc said:

See... this is what I mean when I talk about people latching on to a talking point that has no factual basis. Go back to 2014. We opened with 595 yards, 293 in the air against Arkansas even though we had a rebuilt line and a new #1 back. The offense has regressed every year that we have had a new QB, because, to this point, Gus hasn't been able to figure out his QB until he sees him live for several games (though, this year, a lot of is was Stidham trying to knock off the rust), but when we have the same QB, we run the same offense, and it's just a continuation of the past year.

The talking point of a returning QB to this offense is one thing but, the fact is that the QB is not why we struggle for the first few games.  It usually is a big part but not the only reason.  We struggle because we don’t have a good handle on who our talent is going into the season.  We will have a rebuilt OL and a new set of RBs that our coaches will have to evaluate in Spring and Fall before we take the field against Washington.  The evaluation usually continues into the first few weeks.

Case in point, the start of the 2016 season we had a returning QB (I know you will disagree) and came out of the gate looking absolutely foolish.  We had a returning RB in KJ and a talent that was not known until Pettway was forced into action.  The fact is, we struggle in the early portion of our schedule because we don’t have an offensive identity until later in the season.  And that fact (talking point) is getting old.

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3 minutes ago, I_M4_AU said:

Case in point, the start of the 2016 season we had a returning QB (I know you will disagree) and came out of the gate looking absolutely foolish.  

You are right, I will disagree, because in 2016 they were trying desperately to start Franklin. They were not trying to continue the offense from 2015, they were trying to reinvent it. It was a stupid idea and it blew up in their face, but it's certainly not an example of what we are looking at moving into next year. Had they not gone out of their way to replace Sean, and just run with the 2015 offense that he lead when he was behind center, we would probably have won out until he got hurt. Of course, now we know why they didn't want to do that, since his dismissal made it apparent that he was a ticking time bomb, so to speak.

There is one single example of a Gus Malzahn coached Auburn team with an established QB behind center at the beginning of a season and that is 2014. That team's offense didn't miss a beat at the beginning of the season.

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6 minutes ago, lionheartkc said:

You are right, I will disagree, because in 2016 they were trying desperately to start Franklin. They were not trying to continue the offense from 2015, they were trying to reinvent it. It was a stupid idea and it blew up in their face, but it's certainly not an example of what we are looking at moving into next year. Had they not gone out of their way to replace Sean, and just run with the 2015 offense that he lead when he was behind center, we would probably have won out until he got hurt. Of course, now we know why they didn't want to do that, since his dismissal made it apparent that he was a ticking time bomb, so to speak.

There is one single example of a Gus Malzahn coached Auburn team with an established QB behind center at the beginning of a season and that is 2014. That team's offense didn't miss a beat at the beginning of the season.

You are very good at missing the point.  Again, it’s not necessarily the QB position that is the problem, it’s spending all Spring and Fall “evaluating” your talent and not having a good handle on what your offensive identity is until later in the season.  The 2014 season was an anomaly, not the norm. 

Regarding SW, I don’t bash players and I’m surprised you are taking this stance.  I don’t mind bashing a guy that makes 7 mil, but amateur student athletes are out of bounds.  It’s interesting to me that our coach rode SW, even knowing he had an issue, until he broke to increase his winning record.  Just like he rides his RBs when they are hurt until they break.  Good ole’ “let them rumble till they fumble” Gus.

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19 minutes ago, I_M4_AU said:

You are very good at missing the point.  Again, it’s not necessarily the QB position that is the problem, it’s spending all Spring and Fall “evaluating” your talent and not having a good handle on what your offensive identity is until later in the season.  The 2014 season was an anomaly, not the norm. 

Regarding SW, I don’t bash players and I’m surprised you are taking this stance.  I don’t mind bashing a guy that makes 7 mil, but amateur student athletes are out of bounds.  It’s interesting to me that our coach rode SW, even knowing he had an issue, until he broke to increase his winning record.  Just like he rides his RBs when they are hurt until they break.  Good ole’ “let them rumble till they fumble” Gus.

You're missing the point that there has been one example of Auburn continuing with an established QB and changes at running back and offensive line, exactly like is going to happen this year, and we started the season without a hiccup on offense because we kept the previous years offensive identity and just plugged in new bodies. An offense is built around it's QB, so offensive identity changes when you bring in a new QB. 2015, the identity had to switch from read-option to more of a balanced run-pass because Jeremy was not a running QB. 2016, Gus tried to go back to more of a read-option, but John just didn't have it. This year, we had a new OC who balanced the offense and a QB who hadn't taken a meaningful snap in over a year and had to adjust to a system that he said was far more complicated than what he had previously run. 2014 wasn't an anomaly, it was the only example of the scenario we are currently looking at.

As for Sean, I'm not bashing him. I'm stating why Gus didn't want to play him.  He had a recurring disciplinary issue that finally ended up biting him in the butt and apparently Gus didn't want to take the risk of it happening with him leading the team. I can totally understand that and I know from his history that Gus did everything he could to help him get past it. I would be willing to bet that Gus eventually "rode him until he broke" because it became apparent that it was our only chance to win, and let's face it, that's all the majority of the vocal fans and the PTB want... wins. No one would be complaining about how many carries Kerryon had, if he hadn't be injured and we hadn't lost, but when we lose, people start looking for ways to throw blame.

Edited by lionheartkc
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I'm much more concerned about our offensive line developing an identity in the Spring and Summer than our offense as a whole. We had a lot of experience up front going into Clemson and played one of the worst games I can remember in pass protection. Mostly all of that experience is now gone. 

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