New York Federal Reserve GDP Forecast: 3.98% Economic Growth

[Elephant Tipper 430]

https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/nowcast

 

Dec 15, 2017: New York Fed Staff Nowcast

• The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 4.0% for 2017:Q4 and 3.1% for 2018:Q1.

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2018:Q1 |2017:Q4 |2017:Q3 |2017:Q2

 

Last Release 11:15am EST Dec 15, 2017

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 The New York Fed Staff Nowcast Advance GDP estimate Latest GDP estimate

Housing and construction Manufacturing Surveys Retail and consumption Income Labor International trade Others

 

Percent (annual rate)

  Nowcast: 3.98
(As of Dec 15)

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Data Flow (Dec 15, 2017)

Model Update	Release Date	Data Series	Actual	Impact	Nowcast GDP Growth
Dec 15					3.98
	9:20AM Dec 15	Capacity utilization	0.13	-0.03
	9:20AM Dec 15	Industrial production index	0.24	-0.02
	8:30AM Dec 15	Empire State Mfg. Survey: General business conditions	18.00	-0.00
	8:30AM Dec 14	Export price index	0.48	0.01
	8:30AM Dec 14	Import price index	0.73	0.01
	8:30AM Dec 14	Retail sales and food services	0.79	-0.01
	8:40AM Dec 13	CPI-U: All items less food and energy	0.12	-0.01
	8:40AM Dec 13	CPI-U: All items	0.39	0.01
	8:30AM Dec 12	PPI: Final demand	0.44	0.01
	10:00AM Dec 11	JOLTS: Total job openings	-181.00	-0.01
		Data revisions		0.10
Dec 08

[Proud Tiger 4,261]

I love this economy.....and the money I'm making in the stock market.

[Brad_ATX 13,654]

23 hours ago, Proud Tiger said:

I love this economy.....and the money I'm making in the stock market. 

The problem with this is that wages aren't going up, which is a truer measurement of how the economy is affecting the lower and middle income earners.  These are the people you need to do well, as they tend to consume more per capita.  Check out this from NPR.  Only about half of the country actually owns any kind of stock, and most of that half is all tied up in a workplace 401k that they can't afford to contribute enough to for a comfortable retirement.

https://www.npr.org/2017/03/01/517975766/while-trump-touts-stock-market-many-americans-left-out-of-the-conversation

[Proud Tiger 4,261]

1 hour ago, Brad_ATX said:

The problem with this is that wages aren't going up, which is a truer measurement of how the economy is affecting the lower and middle income earners.  These are the people you need to do well, as they tend to consume more per capita.  Check out this from NPR.  Only about half of the country actually owns any kind of stock, and most of that half is all tied up in a workplace 401k that they can't afford to contribute enough to for a comfortable retirement.

https://www.npr.org/2017/03/01/517975766/while-trump-touts-stock-market-many-americans-left-out-of-the-conversation

Wages aren't going up much but more people are employed and getting wages so that is a plus. And I don't think you will find many economists who think wages is a major factor/measure  of the economy. I agree on 401K and stock but that will always be the case. But whatever, a GDP of 4%  is very significant.

[maxwere 82]

23 hours ago, Proud Tiger said:

I love this economy.....and the money I'm making in the stock market.

Presidents don't have anything to do with long term equity gains.

[maxwere 82]

Apparently the new tax bill has like 5% baked into its projection.

[Proud Tiger 4,261]

39 minutes ago, maxwere said:

Presidents don't have anything to do with long term equity gains.

I disagree. Maybe they don't directly but perception places a big part of market movements. The market has gone nuts since Trump was elected based on the issues he campaigned on and is now implementing. Reducing regulations has been one big force in positive market movement.

[homersapien 11,423]

6 minutes ago, Proud Tiger said:

I disagree. Maybe they don't directly but perception places a big part of market movements. The market has gone nuts since Trump was elected based on the issues he campaigned on and is now implementing. Reducing regulations has been one big force in positive market movement.

And you probably believe a rooster makes the sun rise.  

The market has been going "nuts" since 2009.  The smart money is taking profits.

[AUDub 11,164]

57 minutes ago, maxwere said:

Apparently the new tax bill has like 5% baked into its projection.

Good to have you back.

[maxwere 82]

22 minutes ago, Proud Tiger said:

I disagree. Maybe they don't directly but perception places a big part of market movements. The market has gone nuts since Trump was elected based on the issues he campaigned on and is now implementing. Reducing regulations has been one big force in positive market movement.

Propaganda for retail suckers.  It has everything to do with captial markets and the long term effects of 0% global interest rate regime.  Bank of Japan owns 70% of Japanese ETF market.  CalPers is 60% public equity.  Every-bodies in the pool b/c they are required to make 6-8% returns to cover their obligations.  The music will stop (probably from Chinese crash), bankers will get all the chairs and retailers eat the losses, all likely before Trump is out.  Meanwhile the snake oil peddlers (economists) are hired to tell you that the first 10% drop is just momentary correction, buy and hold, stay the course... Trump has it going.

[Proud Tiger 4,261]

34 minutes ago, maxwere said:

Propaganda for retail suckers.  It has everything to do with captial markets and the long term effects of 0% global interest rate regime.  Bank of Japan owns 70% of Japanese ETF market.  CalPers is 60% public equity.  Every-bodies in the pool b/c they are required to make 6-8% returns to cover their obligations.  The music will stop (probably from Chinese crash), bankers will get all the chairs and retailers eat the losses, all likely before Trump is out.  Meanwhile the snake oil peddlers (economists) are hired to tell you that the first 10% drop is just momentary correction, buy and hold, stay the course... Trump has it going.

All of these are certainly technical factors but the average Joe Investor is not familiar wit them. I agree the incredible run up since Trump was elected (about 5000 points)  can't last forever. I have lightened my holdings a bit.

[DKW 86 7,438]

43 minutes ago, homersapien said:

And you probably believe a rooster makes the sun rise.  

The market has been going "nuts" since 2009.  The smart money is taking profits.

Stock market may be going nutz, but housing is just starting to move forward again.

[Proud Tiger 4,261]

5 minutes ago, DKW 86 said:

Stock market may be going nutz, but housing is just starting to move forward again.

Right and I have moved some funds into a couple or REITs. Getting 9-12% over the last year.

 

[Elephant Tipper 430]

40 minutes ago, maxwere said:

Presidents don't have anything to do with long term equity gains.

Au contraire my friend.  Presidents do have a direct effect on the market, long and short.  The course the market follows is dependent on the President's projected policies.

I trade the futures markets and have done so for the past 20 years.  One market that I follow but don't trade is the DJIA.  From July, 2016-August, 2016 the market was in a sideways position, hovering around 18,500.  At the beginning of September, 2016 when HRC was becoming the more likely candidate to be elected the market began dropping into a lower range of 18,250-18,000.  The week before the election, beginning 10/31/16, HRC was perceived as the certain winner of the presidential election.  That certainty was 95%+, no less.  That week, the market tanked another 700 points reaching a low of 17,400 +/-. 

The day/night of the election I chose to follow the DJIA.   The market continued to slide to that 17,400 average as the negative news about HRC came in, ie. her likely election.  At about 9:00 p.m. Eastern time the news was announced that DJT was the projected winner of PA.  The slide of the market stopped on a dime and I mean to the very minute.  As OH, MI and WI came in the market accelerated in its reverse course.  From the low of 17,400+/- on the day of the election to the close on Friday, the market (futures) climbed 1,400 points to close at 18,833.  In 3 trading days the market gained 1,400 points, an 8% increase.

The DJIA (futures) continued to climb and close at 20,981 at the end of 2/17, then gently slid about 500 points over 8 weeks to about 20,400 +/-.  Since April, 2017, the market has climbed another 4,400 points as of today with only one momentary decline of about 300 points in a sideways move.  Today the DJIA (futures) hit a new record high of 24,896.  With continued pursuit/success of sound economic policies by DJT, the market will have a tremendous upside.

Under Ronald Reagan, the market closed at around 2,800 when he took office then dropped about 25% before recovering and growing to a high of about 5,500 in 1988 once his policies took effect.  Our economy grew dramatically. 

Under Barack Obama, the market dropped about 2,000 points from the night of his election until he took office.  Once BO took office, the market grew from its lowest of 6,400 to a high of 18,500 during the summer of 2016, due to quantitative easing.  NO ECONOMIC policy helped.  The flow of debt made this move happen, thanks to the colluuuuuuusion of the Fed and Treasury as well as the cheapness of stocks, having dropped 7,600 points (around 54%).  When the Fed and Treasury stopped their colluuuuuuuusion, the market tanked 14%.  Without BO's Treasury colluuuuuuuuding with the Fed, the DJIA would not have grown, in conjunction with a change in banking policies.

Since DJT was elected, the DJIA has grown 41% without decline.

Whether with sound economic policies or trickery by the Fed and Treasury, the President will have a direct effect on the market, good and/or bad.

 

[maxwere 82]

Futures mkts is not long term public equity.  This market run is all built on speculative growth short termers.  

ET, your numbers are wrong.  More like 20%.  Either way it’s trying to justify a conclusion with data while causal evidence doesn’t exist.  This market is going to get an unprecidented hammer to the downside before DJT is done.  He’ll take the blame in mainstream.

[Elephant Tipper 430]

4 hours ago, maxwere said:

Futures mkts is not long term public equity.  This market run is all built on speculative growth short termers.  

ET, your numbers are wrong.  More like 20%.  Either way it’s trying to justify a conclusion with data while causal evidence doesn’t exist.  This market is going to get an unprecidented hammer to the downside before DJT is done.  He’ll take the blame in mainstream.

The DJIA futures market is based on and a direct reflection of the DJIA.  The difference between the Dow and its futures market varies by only a few points, 10-20 at most. 

Numbers aren't wrong.  The market had dropped to 17,400 +/- by the night of the election.  3 trading days later the market closed at 18,833.  That's an 8% increase in 3 days from the moment the market turned on the announcement that DJT was apparently winning the election.  The close today was 24,739 (futures) which means the market has moved about 7,300 points.  From election night that is a 42% advance, again, from the very moment when DJT was announced as turning the election around.

The "causal evidence" was the announcement that Trump was apparently winning the election.  I followed the market, you didn't.

On what do you base your assertion that the "market is going to get an unprecedented hammer to the downside" ?  Surely you have "causal" evidence.

See for yourself: https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/YMH18/interactive-chart