Universal Basic Income

[channonc 466]

A new poll by Gallup says that 46% of Americans support a universal basic income.

Link to full poll

I think this is a topic worthy of some real thought. With the pace of automation, I think that UBI will have to happen at some point as a way to level the playing field against the significant loss of jobs that automation will create. I'm suspecting in 3-5 years, we will see a significant uptick in things like fully automated vehicles, ordering kiosks, automated food prep, and even robot chefs. The question for me about UBI really becomes not an if, but a when. I will be curious to see what comes of the pilot on this idea in San Francisco (the hotbed of automation).

[Strychnine 1,804]

52 minutes ago, channonc said:

A new poll by Gallup says that 46% of Americans support a universal basic income.

Link to full poll

I think this is a topic worthy of some real thought. With the pace of automation, I think that UBI will have to happen at some point as a way to level the playing field against the significant loss of jobs that automation will create. I'm suspecting in 3-5 years, we will see a significant uptick in things like fully automated vehicles, ordering kiosks, automated food prep, and even robot chefs. The question for me about UBI really becomes not an if, but a when. I will be curious to see what comes of the pilot on this idea in San Francisco (the hotbed of automation).

 

Off topic, but the Expanse (TV show) touches on that in a future context.  Earth is overpopulated and basic assistance (UBI) for the population that cannot work due to lack of work to do is a significant drain on the Belters and their colonies.  For example, a man in his 50's has been waiting for a slot to be become a doctor since his late teens.  Earth is not a pleasant place to live for those on basic assistance and no way off the planet.  The resentment that Martians and Belters hold for Earthers is a very big element in the show.

[AuCivilEng1 11,026]

Sam Harris and Joe Rogan talked about the on Rogan's podcast one time. Basically Harris said, a UBI brought on by mass automation would allow people to pursue useful hobbies and make new inventions. Optimistic thinking on his part. I tend to think it will just turn us into a real life version of the people in the movie Wall-E. ?

[autigeremt 6,716]

I hope I’m dead before hard work and a determined spirit is no longer a viable option for people in the US and around the world. 

[TitanTiger 20,511]

2 hours ago, autigeremt said:

I hope I’m dead before hard work and a determined spirit is no longer a viable option for people in the US and around the world. 

It's a real thing that people are concerned about - automation and computers rendering so many jobs obsolete, never to return, that there simply isn't enough work to go around.  There's only so many people needed to maintain the machines, program and build them and so on.  What is everyone else going to do?  Certainly new industries and services will be created that no one can conceive of now, but there likely won't be enough to employ everyone even if they all were willing and begging for a job.

[homersapien 11,453]

22 minutes ago, TitanTiger said:

It's a real thing that people are concerned about - automation and computers rendering so many jobs obsolete, never to return, that there simply isn't enough work to go around.  There's only so many people needed to maintain the machines, program and build them and so on.  What is everyone else going to do?  Certainly new industries and services will be created that no one can conceive of now, but there likely won't be enough to employ everyone even if they all were willing and begging for a job.

Sounds like reducing population growth would be useful.   Maybe technology and economics will help.

[AU64 10,122]

8 hours ago, homersapien said:

Sounds like reducing population growth would be useful.   Maybe technology and economics will help.

Seems that maybe this is happening already.     Populations in countries where people are pre-dispositioned toward work are declining and in areas/ countries where (for various reasons) people are not pre-dispositioned toward work those populations are increasing.  

JMO but the availability of "universal basic income" will just further shift those proportions.    Those who are predisposed to work will work and those who are predisposed otherwise will find they don't have to work to live suitably.    However,  history also shows  that no matter what the level of economic subsidy the government provides, it will always be insufficient to allow people to live as they wish, or to be able to afford the drugs they prefer so politicians will remain able to campaign on behalf of the drones and express their intent to be more generous with the worker bee's money. .   

So,  as a component of the above plan,  the government should also provide free recreational drugs to keep the drones  happy, probably in stupors, and easily manageable for their shortened lives...thus making it unnecessary for them to prey on the workers to help support their "life style".  Thus this plan could be justified on the basis that it would help reduce the incidents of property crimes.  

[channonc 466]

12 hours ago, TitanTiger said:

It's a real thing that people are concerned about - automation and computers rendering so many jobs obsolete, never to return, that there simply isn't enough work to go around.  There's only so many people needed to maintain the machines, program and build them and so on.  What is everyone else going to do?  Certainly new industries and services will be created that no one can conceive of now, but there likely won't be enough to employ everyone even if they all were willing and begging for a job.

This is the real issue. Japan is already seeing a huge spike in the automation of jobs because of the low birthrates in recent years. This article from the Atlantic, I think outlines the issue quite well.

I think unskilled jobs (food service, hotels, drivers, etc.) are going to become extinct, and much more quickly than people realize and as you point out, then what? Not everyone will be able to be trained or educated to take on the role of managing all these robotic "employees," but yet, it will be vital for our economy that we continue to have people spending in the economy. I think UBI should act much like the oil royalties in Alaska. Everyone should benefit financially from the automation, not just the companies who displace and replace workers.

[Strychnine 1,804]

4 hours ago, channonc said:

This is the real issue. Japan is already seeing a huge spike in the automation of jobs because of the low birthrates in recent years. This article from the Atlantic, I think outlines the issue quite well.

I think unskilled jobs (food service, hotels, drivers, etc.) are going to become extinct, and much more quickly than people realize and as you point out, then what? Not everyone will be able to be trained or educated to take on the role of managing all these robotic "employees," but yet, it will be vital for our economy that we continue to have people spending in the economy. I think UBI should act much like the oil royalties in Alaska. Everyone should benefit financially from the automation, not just the companies who displace and replace workers.

 

I tend to think we are approaching the point where philosophies will likely have to change, much more quickly than people realize.  Since the turn of the 20th century, technology has developed at a pace completely unprecedented in all of human history, and there is no indication that it is going to do anything other than continue to accelerate.  It might not be in our lifetime, but I think there is a point where our technology will force humanity to either evolve or perish.  The problems revealed by the displacement created by mass automation are merely a symptom of that.  While it is science fiction, of course, the road between the present and the utopian future of Star Trek required World War III and first contact by extraterrestrials to get there.

[homersapien 11,453]

29 minutes ago, Strychnine said:

 

I tend to think we are approaching the point where philosophies will likely have to change, much more quickly than people realize.  Since the turn of the 20th century, technology has developed at a pace completely unprecedented in all of human history, and there is no indication that it is going to do anything other than continue to accelerate.  It might not be in our lifetime, but I think there is a point where our technology will force humanity to either evolve or perish.  The problems revealed by the displacement created by mass automation are merely a symptom of that.  While it is science fiction, of course, the road between the present and the utopian future of Star Trek required World War III and first contact by extraterrestrials to get there.

Very insightful.  And the pace of change is accelerating.  Robots are elimentary.  Consider AI and genetic engineering, or some combination of all of them.  

Technology certainly has a strong aspect of a "Hellbound Train".  I came to that conclusion years ago, probably while listening to Savoy Brown.  

[augolf1716 21,305]

21 hours ago, TitanTiger said:

It's a real thing that people are concerned about - automation and computers rendering so many jobs obsolete, never to return, that there simply isn't enough work to go around.  There's only so many people needed to maintain the machines, program and build them and so on.  What is everyone else going to do?  Certainly new industries and services will be created that no one can conceive of now, but there likely won't be enough to employ everyone even if they all were willing and begging for a job.

Soylent Green is the answer I'm telling you

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0070723/

In 2022, Earth is overpopulated and totally polluted; the natural resources have been exhausted and the nourishment of the population is provided by Soylent Industries, a company that makes a food consisting of plankton from the oceans. In New York City, when Soylent's member of the board William R. Simonson is murdered apparently by a burglar at the Chelsea Towers West where he lives, efficient Detective Thorn is assigned to investigate the case with his partner Solomon "Sol" Roth. Thorn comes to the fancy apartment and meets Simonson's bodyguard Tab Fielding and the "furniture" (woman that is rented together with the flat) Shirl and the detective concludes that the executive was not victim of burglary but executed. Further, he finds that the Governor Santini and other powerful men want to disrupt and end Thorn's investigation. But Thorn continues his work and discovers a bizarre and disturbing secret of the ingredient used to manufacture Soylent Green.

[NolaAuTiger 3,295]

On 2/27/2018 at 10:33 AM, channonc said:

A new poll by Gallup says that 46% of Americans support a universal basic income.

Link to full poll

I think this is a topic worthy of some real thought. With the pace of automation, I think that UBI will have to happen at some point as a way to level the playing field against the significant loss of jobs that automation will create. I'm suspecting in 3-5 years, we will see a significant uptick in things like fully automated vehicles, ordering kiosks, automated food prep, and even robot chefs. The question for me about UBI really becomes not an if, but a when. I will be curious to see what comes of the pilot on this idea in San Francisco (the hotbed of automation).

Good example - The legal field is over saturated with people, and its becoming increasingly automated. Hard enough to find a job out of law school.

Hopefully people never get tired of reading fiction - I don't think authors will be displaced. 

[Strychnine 1,804]

21 hours ago, homersapien said:

Very insightful.  And the pace of change is accelerating.  Robots are elimentary.  Consider AI and genetic engineering, or some combination of all of them.  

Technology certainly has a strong aspect of a "Hellbound Train".  I came to that conclusion years ago, probably while listening to Savoy Brown.  

 

I suspect people your age have a better perspective on it than I do.  The technological developments and refinements that occurred in your lifetime are astounding.  In computers alone, they have evolved from units that occupied the space of several rooms to something you can put in your pocket with computation ability and storage capacity that dwarfs the old ones, and can also be used to place phone calls to anywhere on the planet.  In less than a century, we went from horse-drawn carriage to landing humans and robotic probes on other worlds.  At 38, AI has progressed in my lifetime from science-fiction plot device to something being actively developed.

What does it mean for our old political and economic philosophies when we have technology that allows us to convert human waste into a delicious turkey dinner, with the push of a button?  What about the replacement for the car, that can quickly traverse the planet and also travel into space?  What happens to our concept of markets when no concept of scarcity applies to raw materials and refined products are produced by automation or replication?  Of course, all of that does not currently appear likely to occur in any of our lifetimes, but they will shake things up.  The advancement of technology does at least tell me that either the days of imaginary lines on our maps (and the petty differences that come with them) are numbered, or humanity's days are numbered.

[homersapien 11,453]

12 hours ago, Strychnine said:

 

I suspect people your age have a better perspective on it than I do.  The technological developments and refinements that occurred in your lifetime are astounding.  In computers alone, they have evolved from units that occupied the space of several rooms to something you can put in your pocket with computation ability and storage capacity that dwarfs the old ones, and can also be used to place phone calls to anywhere on the planet.  In less than a century, we went from horse-drawn carriage to landing humans and robotic probes on other worlds.  At 38, AI has progressed in my lifetime from science-fiction plot device to something being actively developed.

What does it mean for our old political and economic philosophies when we have technology that allows us to convert human waste into a delicious turkey dinner, with the push of a button?  What about the replacement for the car, that can quickly traverse the planet and also travel into space?  What happens to our concept of markets when no concept of scarcity applies to raw materials and refined products are produced by automation or replication?  Of course, all of that does not currently appear likely to occur in any of our lifetimes, but they will shake things up.  The advancement of technology does at least tell me that either the days of imaginary lines on our maps (and the petty differences that come with them) are numbered, or humanity's days are numbered.

My first calculator came with my first job, in 1975.  I didn't trust it at first and checked it with my slide rule. 

Yes, from my perspective, the rate of technological change appears to be a 'hellbound train' to extinction.  Of course there is the possibility of a (miraculous) evolutionary jump.   

But I am not optimistic, even though  human nature compels me to be so.