Southern Miss Game Report Card

[StatTiger 3,188]

Game #5 Statistical Evaluation (Southern Miss Game)

Offensive Report Card

01) Avg 6-yards per play on 1st down: [4.90] fail
02) Convert at least 40% of 3rd downs: [31.2%] fail
03) Avg at least 4.5 yards per rush: [2.67] fail
04) Score on at least 1/3 of possessions: [28.6%] fail
05) Keep 3 and out series under 33%: [28.6%] pass
06) Average 8.0 yards per pass attempt: [7.42 yds] fail
07) Score at least 75% inside red zone: [100.0%] pass
08) TD red zone above 60%: [66.7%] pass
09) Avg at least 30-yards per possession: [24.3 yds] fail
10) 40% of offensive snaps part of scoring drives: [34.8%] fail
11) TD / Turnover ratio above 1.6: [3/1] pass
12) TD ratio of at least 1 every 17 snaps: [23.0] fail
13) At least 8 impact plays: (8) pass
14) At least 2 big plays: (3) pass
15) Pass rating of at least 126.3: [139.9] pass
16) Yards to Point Ratio of 14.0 or under: [14.2] fail

Score: 7 of 16 (43.7%) Fail

Defensive Report Card:

01) Avg under 6-yards per play on 1st down: [3.78] pass
02) Convert below 35% of 3rd downs: [15.4%] pass
03) Avg at least 4.0 yards per rush or less: [2.14] pass
04) Score 1/3 of possessions or below: [21.4%] pass
05) Keep 3 and out series above 33%: [57.1%] pass
06) Average below 7.5 yards per pass attempt: [4.89 yds] pass
07) Score below 75% inside red zone: [100.0%] fail
08) TD red zone below 60%: [50.0%] pass
09) Avg under 30-yards per possession: [18.6 yds] pass
10) 40% or less of offensive snaps part of scoring drives: [33.8%] pass
11) TD / Turnover ratio below 1.6: [1/3] pass
12) TD ratio of at least 1 every 30 snaps: [65.0] pass
13) Less than 8 impact plays: (9) fail
14) No more than 2 big plays allowed: (0) pass
15) Pass rating below 125.0: [107.6] pass
16) Yards to point ratio of 18.0 or higher: [16.5] fail

Score: 13 of 16 (81.2%) Pass

Special Teams Report Card:

1) Punt Average (Above 41.3): [44.1] pass
2) Punt Return Defense (Below 7.8 YPR): [11.0] fail
3) Punt Return Offense (Above 9.8 YPR): [1.5] fail
4) Kick-Return Defense (Below 21.2 YPR): [16.0] pass
5) Kick-Return Offense (Above 22.3 YPR): [N/A]
6) PAT’s (100%): [3 / 3] pass
7) FG Pct (75% or above): [50.0%] fail

Score: 3 of 6 (50.0%) Pass

* 50% is a passing score. 

For the first time during the Malzahn offensive era at Auburn, the Tigers were held under 100-yards rushing during two consecutive games. It is the primary reason why Auburn finished with a failing grade on offense for the second week in a row. Jarrett Stidham and the Auburn passing game performed better than the Arkansas game, but it is evident Auburn continues to struggle up front, and the loss of JaTarvious Whitlow will likely magnify the issue. Kam Martin played tough in relief (90-yard on 24 carries) but it was disappointing Asa Martin did not register one carry. His lone offensive touch came on the most predictable pass play, where Auburn motions a RB into the flat just before the snap and is tackled the moment he catches the pass. To his credit, he did gain three yards compared to Shivers 3-yard loss against Arkansas. Auburn came into the game with only three plays of 30-yards or more and registered three against the Golden Eagles. During Auburn's last seven FBS games, the Tigers have averaged just 119-yards rushing per game on 3.0 yards per carry.

Southern Miss completed 30 of 44 passes and the 215-yards surrendered was the fewest passing yards surrendered by an Auburn defense with 30 completions or more. The record was set because Auburn tackled well and did not yield a play longer than 28-yards. Auburn's defense came up with 12 tackles for loss, and DeShaun Davis led the Tigers in tackles with ten stops. Auburn's top-2 tacklers during the game were linebackers, which was rare considering they faced a pass-heavy offense. Davis and Darrell Williams accounted for 4.5 of Auburn's tackles for loss. The Tigers secondary played well with four pass breakups and two interceptions. Despite how poorly the Auburn offense has performed the past two weeks, the Tigers have recorded back-to-back double-digit victories. It is a testament to how well the defense and special teams have performed.

Auburn will continue to work on their running game, but after five games, there isn't much to indicate there will be much improvement against conference opposition. If this is the case, Jarrett Stidham will have to carry the bulk of the offense, and the Auburn coaches will need to scheme to give him and his receivers the best chance for success. The defense is good enough to keep Auburn in every game up to the Georgia game, but Auburn can't afford to survive with the high number of penalties or turnovers. Through five games, Auburn fans can only hope this Auburn team takes on the personality of the 2006 Auburn Tigers that won 11 of 13 games primarily with defense and special teams. It was the ugliest 11-win team Auburn has fielded and the 2018 Auburn Tigers offense no doubt, have the ugly part down.

War Eagle!

[hooverwareagle1 37]

I have 0% confidence we have the offensive coaches (OC, OL, RB) to improve this offense.  The handwriting is on the wall.  If we cannot run the ball on USM and Ark we will not run the ball on Miss St, UGA, and bammer.  The coaches apparently do not have the ability to shift our offense to a pass first attack with short slants and passes over the middle.  After seeing USM use crossing routes and pseudo pick plays I said USM has a much more advance passing attack versus our passing game.  I think our D keeps us in most games (not UGA and bammer - both blowouts).  We play Miss State close but they beat us at home.  We will fight tough games against UT, TAMU, Ole Miss.  Probably an 7-5 season with not much optimism about the OL and RB for next year.  I think Stidham leaves either way after this year.  Pros or grad transfer.  He knows he needs to be on a passing team that has an OL and pass routes to get open.  Sounds like the sky is falling.  If Gus was a quality HC that cared about AU he would go ahead and start looking for a new OL coach that can coach and recruit and a new RB coach.  But we all know that is not going to happen.  I have seen nothing the last two weeks that show our offense is improving.  Harsh reality.

[RunInRed 19,665]

41 minutes ago, StatTiger said:

For the first time during the Malzahn offensive era at Auburn, the Tigers were held under 100-yards rushing during two consecutive games.

And the opponents were far from great

[AU64 10,122]

56 minutes ago, StatTiger said:

Southern Miss completed 30 of 44 passes and the 215-yards surrendered was the fewest passing yards surrendered by an Auburn defense with 30 completions or more.

About  40 or so yards were gifts at the end of the game  when AU let SM backs catch short passes uncontested while the clock ran out.....kind of juiced up the SM stats but other than the D, there was little to be happy with.

Thanks for the analysis. ...always appreciate the work that goes into it...

[aubiefifty 19,322]

i am not sure we need to replace our rb coach unless he is not happy. he sure has come up with some great backs while at auburn. i think the oline is the culprit for most of the rb troubles.

[johnnyAU 3,770]

I have low expectations for the MSU game. This thing could end up a single digit slug fest with two good front 7's controlling the game and 2 anemic offenses trying to out snooze each other. 

What do you guys think, like 6-3? 

[WarEagle1982 494]

3 minutes ago, johnnyAU said:

I have low expectations for the MSU game. This thing could end up a single digit slug fest with two good front 7's controlling the game and 2 anemic offenses trying to out snooze each other. 

What do you guys think, like 6-3? 

3-2

[SumterAubie 3,219]

So Asa Martin is this year's Devin Barrett. Where he gets one touch each game, the defense knows it, and is predictably stuffed. ?

Edited September 30, 2018 by SumterAubie

[weagl1 1,859]

Something has to happen with the O line.  I certainly don’t have the answer and I don’t think our $7M a year coach does either.  It’s sad to watch.  

[jAUSon 2,836]

Translated: We won't even be in the Uga game.

[Dual-Threat Rigby 10,024]

Imagine being forced to go RB by committee because you lost your star RBs from 2016 and 2017 and still refusing to try the concept 

joiner and Martin might as well be moved to DB too 

[jAUSon 2,836]

1 hour ago, SumterAubie said:

So Asa Martin is this year's Devin Barrett. Where he gets one touch each game, the defense knows it, and is predictably stuffed. ?

You and I know it......so why wouldn't any opposing coach of even the lowest pedigree know?

[Farmer Brown 2,530]

"Jarrett Stidham will have to carry the bulk of the offense, and the Auburn coaches will need to scheme to give him and his receivers the best chance for success. "

 

Do you believe that Gus is smart enough to do this, or too stubborn to even try?

[StatTiger 3,188]

5 minutes ago, Farmer Brown said:

"Jarrett Stidham will have to carry the bulk of the offense, and the Auburn coaches will need to scheme to give him and his receivers the best chance for success. "

 

Do you believe that Gus is smart enough to do this, or too stubborn to even try?

They are trying. More passes on 1st down than ever under Malzahn and more pass selections than runs during the first half. Southern Miss game marked the first time the offense had more pass attempts during the first-half then run plays. Ryan Davis has been the most targeted receiver every game until the USM game. Four players were targeted more than Davis yesterday.

[Timeslider 6 275]

So is this something time can fix?

[StatTiger 3,188]

1 hour ago, Timeslider 6 said:

So is this something time can fix?

I do believe they are trying to adjust the offense based on the current circumstances but only time will tell if the adjustments are positive. Those that believe there have not been adjustments are not truly watching the games. Again, I am not saying the adjustments are the correct "fix" but it's not business as usual. IMO, there is only so much you will profit from throwing within 5-yards of the LOS 55-65 percent of the time and rarely targeting the intermediate routes. Against good defenses you will end up with games where the pass offense is 15 of 22 passes for 130-140 yards. Add the recent 100-130 yards rushing and you have 230-270 yards of offense by the end of the game. How many points can we hope for with that kind of yardage production? Even if you don't turn the ball over, you likely have 10-20 points max.

[around4ever 4,140]

3 hours ago, Farmer Brown said:

"Jarrett Stidham will have to carry the bulk of the offense, and the Auburn coaches will need to scheme to give him and his receivers the best chance for success. "

 

Do you believe that Gus is smart enough to do this, or too stubborn to even try?

Too stubborn to try.  Been saying that for five years. 

[AU64 10,122]

23 minutes ago, around4ever said:

Too stubborn to try.  Been saying that for five years. 

Still operating on the premise that Gus is calling the plays?   

Check Statiger's comments a few hours ago.....offense does not look the same and once again I am of the view that our QB is much of the problem.

I'm wondering how many "pass plays" end up with a ball not being thrown to whoever was the primary or secondary receiver.   Seems to me that too many of our passing attempts do nothing....busted plays with an attempt to run,  balls dumped out of bounds and a few sacks too.... ..must be close to a fourth of our plays?  ?  

[OnthePlains 2,014]

I’m gonna sit down Saturday night, grab a burger, grab a drink and watch Auburn with an open mind and take off my Anti-Gus glasses and just see what he can do with all of the problems and angst on offense. If we look like we improve I will be fair to him. 20 points is probably enough to win this game and that shouldn’t be unreasonable to attain.

[AUsince72 11,084]

40 minutes ago, OnthePlains said:

I’m gonna sit down Saturday night, grab a burger, grab a drink and watch Auburn with an open mind and take off my Anti-Gus glasses and just see what he can do with all of the problems and angst on offense. If we look like we improve I will be fair to him. 20 points is probably enough to win this game and that shouldn’t be unreasonable to attain.

Not me.  If they don't get 21 points there's still a problem.  

[homersapien 12,898]

12 hours ago, hooverwareagle1 said:

I have 0% confidence we have the offensive coaches (OC, OL, RB) to improve this offense.  The handwriting is on the wall.  If we cannot run the ball on USM and Ark we will not run the ball on Miss St, UGA, and bammer.  The coaches apparently do not have the ability to shift our offense to a pass first attack with short slants and passes over the middle.  After seeing USM use crossing routes and pseudo pick plays I said USM has a much more advance passing attack versus our passing game.  I think our D keeps us in most games (not UGA and bammer - both blowouts).  We play Miss State close but they beat us at home.  We will fight tough games against UT, TAMU, Ole Miss.  Probably an 7-5 season with not much optimism about the OL and RB for next year.  I think Stidham leaves either way after this year.  Pros or grad transfer.  He knows he needs to be on a passing team that has an OL and pass routes to get open.  Sounds like the sky is falling.  If Gus was a quality HC that cared about AU he would go ahead and start looking for a new OL coach that can coach and recruit and a new RB coach.  But we all know that is not going to happen.  I have seen nothing the last two weeks that show our offense is improving.  Harsh reality.

It seems like we need major overhauls in one aspect of the game or another every other year.  

 

 

 

[homersapien 12,898]

7 hours ago, Farmer Brown said:

"Jarrett Stidham will have to carry the bulk of the offense, and the Auburn coaches will need to scheme to give him and his receivers the best chance for success. "

 

Do you believe that Gus is smart enough to do this, or too stubborn to even try?

That's sort of a distinction without a difference. 

Edited October 1, 2018 by homersapien

[homersapien 12,898]

I'm all for the occasional pass on first down, but unless we can somewhat confidently pick up at least 4 yards on first down we will always be playing behind the chains.  If you have 2nd and 6 (or better), you can be afford to be unpredictable with play choices. 

Look at the Bama and UGA.  They can pretty much depend on picking up 4 or more on first down.  They play downhill while we've been playing uphill. (Not to mention our penalties.)  Good teams create 3rd and short's while we seem to create 3rd and long's.  

A minimum of 4 yds on first down is "no-brainer" football and it's exactly what Gus wants.  That's why he always mentions improving the running game at the end of every game.  But this year, we don't seem to have the elements for a good running game. (I have no idea why - other than the obvious assumptions.)

Without a running game we'd have to have an insanely good passing game (Air Gus?) to have a chance in this conference, plus the OL play to let it work. I doubt we'd try that even if it were remotely feasible, which I don't think it is.   

Thanks to our defense, we'll have close games until we get to the heavyweights, but there's only so much you can ask of even a good defense and there's no way we'll have a chance against really good teams with a completely ineffective offense.  

Without an adequate running game we are toast.  Gus knows that and unless he finds enough tweaks to make it happen, this could get real ugly.

 

This message was presented by the Society of the Obvious

 

Edited October 1, 2018 by homersapien

[around4ever 4,140]

3 hours ago, AU64 said:

Still operating on the premise that Gus is calling the plays?   

Check Statiger's comments a few hours ago.....offense does not look the same and once again I am of the view that our QB is much of the problem.

I'm wondering how many "pass plays" end up with a ball not being thrown to whoever was the primary or secondary receiver.   Seems to me that too many of our passing attempts do nothing....busted plays with an attempt to run,  balls dumped out of bounds and a few sacks too.... ..must be close to a fourth of our plays?  ?  

I do still think Gus dictates plays for situations.  I would like to see the play card that Chip has to call plays from. The offense looks different because we don't have a read option QB.  Also looks different because we are using different formations and much less pre snap motions.  IMO, many of our plays are the same plays we have run for 10 years under Gus. 

You are correct about our pass plays. But, I don't put it all on Stidham. Our WR have run the same routes for 10 years. Our OLine does not give Stidham time for the slow developing routes to develop.  The QB has his head on a swivel not knowing where the pressures will come from.  When he does have time he hits his target. 

[Eagle Eye 7 2,535]

As much as I hate Saben you have to admit he wins games. As a defensive minded coach they pretty much run his defense every year. But he constantly tweeks it as folks figure it out. When Gus brought in the hurry up he went to smaller and faster LBs and DBs. Good coaches understand that you have to constantly improve. He has no problem bringing in outside ideas. I fact he hires all kind of assistants to do nothing more than watch film of his team and point out tendencies that other coaches might see. You have to be able to Honestly look at your faults and tendencies and make changes. Like the old saying you can’t fix the problem until you are able to admit it is a problem. Gus’s biggest problem is he is always trying to feed his ego. No matter the result it has to be someone else’s fault. If he doesn’t get over it he will never be a really good coach.