Season (full regular) Review

[JwgreDeux 1,279]

Well the game have been played, post-season and the big dance await, it's great to be an Auburn Tiger!  So let's jump right in and take a look at some preseason predictions and where we ended up, as well as look at some particular players and what we need as we begin postseason play. 

(First lets review some predictions) From my season preview:

"My mostly uneducated prediction for the season is 19-11 overall and 9-9 in the league. Think we will likely be a bubble team that hopefully gets the benefit of the doubt on selection day, as we have a pretty unimpressive out of conference schedule. 

(I am reserving the right to edit this after we see the exhibition).

War Eagle. "

"After seeing the exhibition game, I am going to improve my outlook on the season slightly to another 20 win season, going 20-10 and 10-8 in the league."

From my non-conference review:

So, I predicted a 10-2 non-conference record and we are sitting at 12-0, but I would like to point out we are only 2 points away from being 10-2 (1 point win vs South Alabama, and 1 more point given up in regulation would have been a loss vs Furman which we won in OT). We have 3 other wins by single digit margins, so I think we need to both relish being undefeated and realize that we aren't as dominant as our record and some stats would indicate....

......I hope to be doing a Season Review that our guys were a few game better than I predicted, we shall see. 

So I am happy to be doing a season review where our guys were a few games better in SEC play than predicted. My prediction of 10-8 was off by two full games as we ended up going 12-6. However, again we were dangerously close to dropping a few games as we ended up winning four games in OT. So while I was off by two games, but right in the ballpark of our overall quality of play. 

We were fortunate the SEC as a whole is a bit below last year's level of play, and we ended up second in the regular season. Overall we went 25-6 which was four games better than my preseason prediction and I think we should all feel very good about what this team and CBP and staff have done this year. Regardless of postseason outcomes, this group has played above expectations and the seniors have a place in Auburn history. Three straight 25 win seasons, let that sink in, is a wonderful accomplishment for this program, but all of these guys want some more hardware before calling it a season/career. 

So looking back on the season, lets talk about some individual guys:

McCormick- played at a level about as expected. He had some ups and downs but has done what we needed from him and more at times. Averaging 11pts and 4 assists 

Samir- played at a level above last season's performance, and we needed it badly. He has been and will be our most valuable player with 16pts 4 rebs and 2 assists per game. He is also leading the team in minutes per game as our starting 2 and backup 1. He was held to single digit scoring in 4 SEC games (Vandy, @Ala, @UF, @UK) and 3 of them were Ls. We need him to play at a high level to make a run in either the SEC or NCAA tourney(s).

Okoro- it is a huge compliment to say a true freshman, who put up 13pts, 4rebs, and 2 assist per game, played as expected. As that says he was every bit as good as the hype. His defense was also a huge factor for us all season long and may the key this postseason as we get into a matchup chess match. He is obviously vital to our efforts as we didn't look good or play well in his absence and struggled the first few games of his return. I hope he gets/is fully healthy for our stretch run. 

Purifoy- played as I expected. He contributed 8pts and 4rebs a game, and is a solid stretch 4, and at times shows flashes of bigger potential. For whatever reason, he just simply has not been able to sustain it. 

Wiley- played slightly above my expectations, but probably right on par with some others'. He has stretches during games where he is simply dominant, but others where he is turnover prone. Overall he is an above average 5 man, and when we use him for his defense, rebounding and don't try to force it in the post, he can be elite. His defense and rebounding have been the areas I am most happy with him at, and where we will need him to continue his post presence. He has solidified himself as our top 5 man with a solid full season of work. I'm happy for him to get a full regular season in healthy. 

McLemore- playing the same minutes as WIley off the bench, McLemore just hasn't produced the way I expected. He production is slightly better than half of WIleys, with 6+pts  and 4rebs per game. His production this season is essentially flat from that of last season. That said, his presence helps the flow of the offense at times and he has made some timely outside shots (but at times forces them as well). He is a good 6th man, and we will need him to elevate his play if we are going to get to the second weekend of the NCAA. 

Flanigan/Cambridge- both have been pretty much on track with providing depth at the 3. Each has had some breakouts and slumps but both have been valuable on both ends of the floor. We will need both of these guys to continue to contribute as bench production will win or lose games during tourney play. 

Johnson- I had little expectations of him, so I'd say he has met those. Being a valuable shoot at times, a liability on defense at others, and a good enough gap filler to allow Samir to get a breather at times. His minutes have fallen sharply in the last handful of games and I would expect that to continue unless we get into foul trouble or something else unusual happens. His ball handling and defense will keep him off the court much of the time from here on out. I do hope that he is able to get in and come through if/when his shooting is needed. 

Jaylin Williams- may be the most interesting of the whole squad. He has shown flashes at times and when he got called to contribute with Okoro out, he came through. His energy and offense are good, but his defensive awareness needs work. He had some late game lapses against A&M that killed us, but his potential is high. He may be the wild card going into the postseason. 

 

Where do we go from here? It's time to step it up. McCormick, Purifoy and McLemore must elevate their play. They have been in this situation before and have found a way to dig deep and come through. This team is deeper, bigger and more physical that last season's but we are not on the same level of play we were this time last year. We did just put together one of our better games, but there are still questions about this team's ability to get tough buckets. I think the last several games we have seen struggles form Okoro being out, but also with CBP juggling the rotation lineup. While the starters haven't changed, Williams's and Johnson's roles have changed. While that may seem like a small thing, it is a significant alteration this late in the season. Is the Tenn game a sign that the chemistry has clicked or are we in for more struggles. I would say its 50/50 at this point. There is reason to believe that Williams is getting better, Okoro healthier and the seniors will dig in and step up, all leading to another magical run. However, there are also plenty of reasons to believe we have seen this team's ceiling and may not be able to get buckets when needed and have an earlier exit from postseason play. 

From here on out it will be all about matchups. We will see what the bracket brings and hope for the best. As for the SEC, I put little stock in the SEC tourney as I hope CBP is still tweaking our rotation/lineup. Looking at the bracket we get the winner of A&M and Mizzou, two team with recent wins over us. The Mizzou loss was without Okoro and the A&M game was one of the worst games from our bench (6pts) all season. Were those due the injuries/rotations discussed? I think so and feel good about that first game no matter who it is. Next would be winner of USC vs LSU. With only 18hrs between games, I think it would favor our depth and have every reason to expect to get through that game as well. The final would likely be vs UK or UF in my opinion and again, from a pure depth standpoint we may have an advantage against either team. UK is sorting out some roster issues that make them questionable right now so this SEC will be very interesting. The only thing I'm really looking for is what do the rotations look like and how do our guys seem mentally? 

Another year with AU on a bracket is a good year. War Eagle!!!!!

 

[JwgreDeux 1,279]

Per Ken Pom: Auburn has a better probability to reach the SEC semis and Final than any other team, and has the second highest probability to win it all, 1.3% behind UK. 

[alexava 6,974]

We fell to #20. You have to look all the way to #6 to find a better record. Is the SEC this bad?

mods can make this another thread if needed. I just realized I might have hijacked this one , sorry. 

[alexava 6,974]

It’s weird that we had 3 different 2 game losing streaks. 

[gr82be 14,534]

4 minutes ago, alexava said:

We fell to #20. You have to look all the way to #6 to find a better record. Is the SEC this bad?

I just think we just looked really bad when we lost to some pretty bad teams and of course we lost them in pairs. 

[JwgreDeux 1,279]

42 minutes ago, alexava said:

We fell to #20. You have to look all the way to #6 to find a better record. Is the SEC this bad?

mods can make this another thread if needed. I just realized I might have hijacked this one , sorry. 

I think all the OT wins factor in as well. If voters look at metrics, we are in the 30s. Our record is a bit better than our level of play. We have 13 wins by single digit margins, games won or lost in essentially 3 possessions. Our record could easily be a few games worse. At this point in the season, I wouldn't get too hung up on ranking. Its much more about seeding and draw. We are a 5 seed right now and I think that is a fair seed. I'd like to get off that 5 line though with a few wins in Nashville.  

[boomstick 1,315]

1 hour ago, gr82be said:

I just think we just looked really bad when we lost to some pretty bad teams and of course we lost them in pairs. 

I also think part of our ascension in the polls was due somewhat to the nature of the polls and how they operate. We remained unbeaten for quite some time while others ranked ahead of us to start the season lost. So we climbed the polls somewhat on merit and somewhat on the failures of others. It's a flaw of the polls in that, rather than truly evaluating and ranking teams, they just shift teams around after losses. I'm not sure we ever earned the higher rankings we held this year. We just kinda fell into those rankings, mainly because of where we started in the preseason polls. 

We're ranked fairly close to where I think this team should be ranked. And I do think the SEC has been down this year. I think there are several good teams, considering there is such a logjam of close records between 2-9, and I don't think UK is that much better than everyone else. But there are no great or elite teams in the SEC, and I don't think there's potential for great or elite teams this year. So, Auburn being down in the polls is a bit of a reflection on the league, a bit of a reflection on the weak-ish OOC schedule we played that propped up our ranking early, and a bit of a faulty poll-based ranking system.

[alexava 6,974]

2 hours ago, JwgreDeux said:

I think all the OT wins factor in as well. If voters look at metrics, we are in the 30s. Our record is a bit better than our level of play. We have 13 wins by single digit margins, games won or lost in essentially 3 possessions. Our record could easily be a few games worse. At this point in the season, I wouldn't get too hung up on ranking. Its much more about seeding and draw. We are a 5 seed right now and I think that is a fair seed. I'd like to get off that 5 line though with a few wins in Nashville.  

I agree that ranking doesn’t mean much now. I’m not really complaining or mad either. It’s just an observation that we have been pushed so far down under teams we have had more success than. If our conference is inferior that explains it. 

[Dual-Threat Rigby 8,838]

I think we really need shots to fall at that 5 spot for when some team inevitably runs zone and we have another stinker around the post. There will probably be some teams where you can run Purifoy at the 5 and maybe that's the different look you get there, but Mac just hasn't been consistent enough lately for that to be your switch up offensively IMO 

 

If you (you being OP) had to go down the positions, and gauge whether each one was above/below/right at relative to your own expectations, where would you have it?

I think: PG, below/SG, right at/SF, slightly above/PF, probably greatly below/C, probably below

Flanagan and Cambridge have their respective mishmashes between 2/3 and 3/4 but for the sake of discussion, I feel like Allen has his most impact at the 3 serving Okoro and Flanagan for Purifoy 

[alexava 6,974]

Doughty needs to stay hot but nobody ever stays hot. I think Danjel has a couple of good games in him and we’re going to have to grind a few out without  a ton of 3s. 

[steeleagle 2,945]

9 hours ago, Dual-Threat Rigby said:

I think we really need shots to fall at that 5 spot for when some team inevitably runs zone and we have another stinker around the post. There will probably be some teams where you can run Purifoy at the 5 and maybe that's the different look you get there, but Mac just hasn't been consistent enough lately for that to be your switch up offensively IMO 

 

If you (you being OP) had to go down the positions, and gauge whether each one was above/below/right at relative to your own expectations, where would you have it?

I think: PG, below/SG, right at/SF, slightly above/PF, probably greatly below/C, probably below

Flanagan and Cambridge have their respective mishmashes between 2/3 and 3/4 but for the sake of discussion, I feel like Allen has his most impact at the 3 serving Okoro and Flanagan for Purifoy 

boy you are hard on these guys. I saw it differently.

PG, right at/SG, slightly above/SF, right at/PF, greatly below/C, slightly above(only bc Wiley has been injury free and great on the boards and one of our better FT shooters)

bench: PG(Turbo), way below/SF(Cambridge), slightly above at times/PF(Williams, slightly above(recently)/C,(Anferee) slightly below. Johnson, way below. 

[JwgreDeux 1,279]

9 hours ago, Dual-Threat Rigby said:

I think we really need shots to fall at that 5 spot for when some team inevitably runs zone and we have another stinker around the post. There will probably be some teams where you can run Purifoy at the 5 and maybe that's the different look you get there, but Mac just hasn't been consistent enough lately for that to be your switch up offensively IMO 

 

If you (you being OP) had to go down the positions, and gauge whether each one was above/below/right at relative to your own expectations, where would you have it?

I think: PG, below/SG, right at/SF, slightly above/PF, probably greatly below/C, probably below

Flanagan and Cambridge have their respective mishmashes between 2/3 and 3/4 but for the sake of discussion, I feel like Allen has his most impact at the 3 serving Okoro and Flanagan for Purifoy 

PG: as expected 

SG: overall production above expected

SF: as expected (which is a compliment due to CBPs preseason praise of Okoro)

PF: below expectations 

C : as expected 

bench has been inconsistent but about as expected  

 

 

[gravejd 3,280]

Can't believe we are already done with the reg season 😥 this year is passing me by at record speed!

So this season definitely exceeded my expectations record wise. I never thought we would get through the season with only 6 losses and finish second in SEC. This team may lack great shooters but it does not lack heart and hustle and the later is what carried them to this point in the season. Its a weird team because they do nothing great but they do enough things well that they have ended up a top team in SEC and likely heading for a top 5 seed in the NCAAT. Take defense for example.....i don't think many would say AU is an elite defensive team but we also seem put forth 6-7 mins each game where we just flat out do not let the other team score. Now if we are able to take advantage of that is another thing but the fact we can shut teams down for long stretches while not being a great defensive team is interesting to me. But that applies to all other areas of our game except maybe rebounding. I think we have been an elite rebounding team all year. 

For individual performances....I would say McCormick and Doughty both exceeded my expectations. With Doughty far and away exceeding my expectations. How many of you if told at the start of the season that Doughty would be our primary backup PG and would have predicted a top 6 seed in the NCAAT? How about even making the tourney with him asked to do so much? Not me......Doughty has raised his game to levels i didn't think we had in him. Unbelievable great season from him. 

McCormick is a tougher call....I was hopeful he would play to this level but saying i expected it might be a bit much. We could use more scoring out of him going forward....but he looked hopeless during SEC play last season and at no point this year did i see that happen again. Super tough kid that turned in a great senior season. Congrats to the young man. 

Mac my favorite player from 2 years ago.....never the same. And after going cold the last 10 games or so i have to label him as having a disappointing season. Maybe he carries us to a couple wins yet and can change my opinion. Still love ya Mac!

Wiley played a little above my expectations. I was not expecting much and he turned in a really solid senior season. Played good defense most of the season and worked hard on the dirty work like rebounds and etc. He may have had better offensive numbers had our guards been better about getting him the ball but i don't know. He is still a liability offensively unless he can dunk it quickly after getting the ball. 

Okoro exceeded my expectations as i tried hard not to expect too much from a Freshmen but he does so many things well. He needs to finish out well cause IMO he has not been the same since the injury and right now my complaint about him would be he did not improve as the season went as much as i hoped he would. But injury likely plays into that a great deal. 

Purifoy exceeded my expectations but i never thought he would even make it to his senior season so him being here means he did better then i thought he would. Kudos to him for sticking it out and contributing some. 

Now the rest of the team i did not know what to expect so it is hard to say they exceeded any expectations. I like what i saw out of Cambridge, Jaylin, and Flanigan going forward. I think these 3 guys will be some really good players for us over the next 2-3 seasons. I also liked what i saw from Akingbola in the few minutes that he got. Outside of Flanigan and Cambridge I do question if Pearl got the young guys enough minutes. I know its hard to get them in as we were not blowing out many teams but i feel Turbo and Akingbola specifically should have gotten a few more chances to play in meaningful games. But Pearl has us on now going to 3 straight NCAAT so i'm just going to assume he knows what he is doing!!! haha. 

Great job Tigers!! Lets get us a few more wins in these tourneys now!!!

[Dual-Threat Rigby 8,838]

11 hours ago, steeleagle said:

boy you are hard on these guys. I saw it differently.

PG, right at/SG, slightly above/SF, right at/PF, greatly below/C, slightly above(only bc Wiley has been injury free and great on the boards and one of our better FT shooters)

bench: PG(Turbo), way below/SF(Cambridge), slightly above at times/PF(Williams, slightly above(recently)/C,(Anferee) slightly below. Johnson, way below. 

I'm looking at the positions as a compilation of everyone who plays there. So if you have PG (presumably Jvon) at being right at, and the backup (Turbo) being way below. Then you would nail the description I had for the position