Thoughts thus far on the team

[SumterAubie 3,031]

5 hours ago, BHDAU1 said:

Wow, what a spectacular performance from this impressive group of Auburn men.  This Auburn basketball team is a sight to behold when they are rocking and rolling, and you just know that the rest of the teams in league are not looking forward to playing them.  This Auburn team already looks like what I had hoped they would by the end of the season going into the SEC tourney, and we are just 5 games into the SEC season.  They are playing together with purpose, and you can tell that everyone on the court is 100% bought-in to what Bruce is doing with them.  This 9 game win streak is not just impressive because they have won 9 games in a row, it's HOW they have won these 9 games that is remarkable.  They have imposed their will on the other team in each of these wins, not an easy thing to do for any team to do no matter how much talent you have.  If offense is not coming easy to them, they don't push it harder and force up tough shots, instead, they turn it up all the way when on defense, which almost always generates some easy transition buckets and open looks from the perimeter on offense.  If Auburn is getting beat on defense by a few set plays being run over and over, or if a couple of the opposing players are winning their match-ups and starting to score a bunch of points, Auburn can slow down their own offense and the game by attacking from the half-court.  This gives them more time to get back and get set on defense, while also reducing or eliminating any easy transition baskets the opponent is getting.  The Auburn coaches have also made great in-game adjustments to run any hot shooters for the opponent into defensive help, over and over again, to wear them down physically and make sure that any shot they take is contested.  This Auburn team has a FULL array of tools available to them to theoretically handle any situation they may run into, the players execute the game plan they are given really well, and they have the players to play any style of basketball they may need to play to beat any opponent. 

      We all know that basketball can be, and frequently is, a game of extremes.  A team can get hot and win a game by 25 points against a top 10 team and then the next week lose by 10 on the road to some unranked team, and it would not be huge surprise to most fans.  All it usually takes for this to happen is for maybe the top two scorers on the team to have a bad shooting night at the same time, and/or a few guys not playing with focus and turning the ball over too much, and you can drop a game against a determined opponent in the blink of an eye.  This Auburn team MIGHT very well be built in a way that all but eliminates that possibility.  This is because Auburn legitimately has 2 complete teams of starters on ONE team, and they are all playing together and unselfishly for both each other and the name across the front of their jerseys, instead of the name on the back.  If you are an opponent how do you game-plan for Auburn?  Even if by some miracle your team is able to stop Auburn in all the ways they can play offense and score points, how do you field a team that can run full speed with Auburn AND handle the relentless defensive pressure they apply for the full 40 mins of the game?  We have seen this play out quite a few times now, where the opponent hangs in there and keeps the score close until the last 4 or 5 minutes of the 1st half.  By that time the opponent's starters are usually a little winded from being run ragged by Auburn's starting line-up number 2, and then Auburn subs-in starting line-up number 1, which is fully-rested and ready to play at full-speed on both ends of the court.  That disparity usually results in an Auburn run before halftime to take a nice lead and demoralize the opponent at the same time, which just had to watch ALL of the effort they expended to keep the score close in the previous 15 to 17 minutes get erased like it never happened in what probably feels like a matter of seconds to them.  They go into the locker room with the knowledge that despite playing as hard as they could, they were still out-worked and out-played and now have the added pressure of a points deficit to erase in addition to just winning the last 20 minutes of the game!  

     I'm not saying that Auburn is unbeatable by any means, like I mentioned previously, basketball games can swing one way or the other for a myriad of reasons. Good teams can lose to bad teams if the better team is having a terrible game while everything seemingly comes together for the bad team when it counts.  It happens all the time, just about every single weekend there are big upsets.  We all know that it is just part of the game these days with the level of parity we are seeing not only within conferences, but across conferences in many cases.  With that said, I don't know if I have seen another team that is better equipped to handle these challenges than Auburn, or more precisely, the TWO complete teams of starting-caliber players that Auburn puts on the court each game.  In my opinion, it is undeniably the closest thing to 2 teams against 1 that we will likely ever see.  

P.S.  Remember all the times you felt like Auburn had to beat two teams in certain games to win, the opposing team AND the team of refs?  Well, now it's an even 2 vs. 2 when that happens to Auburn, and I will always like our chances in that situation!  On the flip side, in games where the refs are making calls that all seem to go Auburn's way, our opponent can now complain and make a convincing case that they had to beat 3 teams! 

I am anxious to see what you guys think of the team at this point, and where they are right now in regards to their development and ceiling.  I also would like to hear opinions on how they compare to UK and UT.  I know there are other teams that can beat us if everything falls into place for them, but it seems that Auburn and those two teams are well-ahead of everyone else at this moment in time.  UK getting that Serbian guy they call "Z" eligible is going to be a big problem for anyone they play if he continues to play like he did yesterday and their team chemistry remains great (which was incredible for his first collegiate game)  UT will also be a big problem to solve if their top two scorers continue to dominate and even improve.  

 

9 minutes ago, NCAubs said:

Cliff Notes version, please.  

Okay.

Auburn is damn good!

[AUtigers2324 42]

20 hours ago, BHDAU1 said:

This 9 game win streak is not just impressive because they have won 9 games in a row, it's HOW they have won these 9 games that is remarkable.

*11 game win streak 😀

[KillenTime 127]

On 1/19/2024 at 12:44 PM, Dual-Threat Rigby said:

I liked the closing line there, but I wouldn't say that about the guards. We got better depth, but Sears is probably right there amongst the NPOY favorites if a couple of those Q1 games go a different direction. I don't think we have a dude in his stratopshere right now. And the good (or bad in this case) thing about this sport is that one dude can really win you a LOT of games. They honestly win the 1-3 pretty safely between their Sears-Griffen-Estrada trifecta against Aden-Denver-CMo. Griffen is a pretty valid defender and can actually score, which puts him easily over CMo or Denver. 

 

I actually think that if anyone has the advantage amongst the starters, it'd be them. Which isn't a foreign concept - I think we've lost the advantage as far the starters in a couple matchups this season. Based on current trends, Aden will disappear after the first few minutes, and Denver-CMo...Now, Broome has had some rough moments against bigs with size, and Nelson/Nick Pringle are not that. But, Broome hasn't had to defend a "center" as fleet of foot as Nelson, and we already know how he looks moving in space.

If Jaylin-Broome can absolutely dominate their matchups, that can definitely end up being a push or a slight advantage for us. But on paper, I'd take their 5 stylistically over ours 

I think Donaldson is playing better than Aden, but doesn't start.  KD has a better drive game than Denver and will probably close the game at the 2.  Chad Mazara is way better than CMO.  CMO shouldn't see the floor on this team much less start.  So you have to revise your assessment in my opinion to who is going to be on the floor when the game is on the line.  It sure isn't going to be CMO and probably not Aden because Aden can't defend and isn't strong enough with ball in his hands for crunch time yet.  It will be a toss up between KD and Denver at the end of the game depending on how the game has gone.  If we need points, KD will be on the floor.  If we need lock down defense, Denver will be on the floor.  It would not surprise me to see those alternate in a tough game in March depending on who has possession.  Our starters are the first group to take the floor, but not our best 5. 

[Dual-Threat Rigby 8,673]

12 minutes ago, KillenTime said:

I think Donaldson is playing better than Aden, but doesn't start.  KD has a better drive game than Denver and will probably close the game at the 2.  Chad Mazara is way better than CMO.  CMO shouldn't see the floor on this team much less start.  So you have to revise your assessment in my opinion to who is going to be on the floor when the game is on the line.  It sure isn't going to be CMO and probably not Aden because Aden can't defend and isn't strong enough with ball in his hands for crunch time yet.  It will be a toss up between KD and Denver at the end of the game depending on how the game has gone.  If we need points, KD will be on the floor.  If we need lock down defense, Denver will be on the floor.  It would not surprise me to see those alternate in a tough game in March depending on who has possession.  Our starters are the first group to take the floor, but not our best 5. 

That post was just comparing starters against starters, not best 5 against whatever their best 5 is. I do have subsequent posts adding additional context 

[KillenTime 127]

On 1/19/2024 at 4:50 PM, AU Is Gold said:

Does anyone know where to find some information on player eligibility for this team? Specifically wanting to know if Cardwell, Broome, and KD have any years left. 

All three should have one year left.  I don't expect Broome to return, but he may.  We lose Williams and Lior for sure.  I think the rest has eligibility remaining.  

[BHDAU1 240]

On 1/21/2024 at 8:42 PM, NCAubs said:

Cliff Notes version, please.  

Sorry about that. I wrote too much for one post. I hadn't posted for a couple of games and got a little carried away!  It's funny, when you try to write something with good substance here it can be really difficult to do. Something that might take just a minute to say is often a paragraph here.

In another matter, I just could not stand it anymore and wrote that total idiot in California, Luca Evans, an email about his AP poll voting on Sunday.  I asked him if he was just pulling teams out of a hat for his absurd ranking order (and by "hat" I mean his a*s), or was it because he was totally incapable of evaluating what a good basketball team looks like? His rankings were so jacked-up it was comical. He had Auburn ranked 23rd in the poll prior to yesterday's, and from positions 11 thru 25, 10 of his rankings were graded extreme.  An extreme grade means that he placed a team more than 5 spots from their actual composite ranking. I see he has moved AU to 16th this week, double their actual composite position.  What can you say other than wow...

Edited January 23 by BHDAU1

[arktiger1975 518]

1 hour ago, BHDAU1 said:

Sorry about that. I wrote too much for one post. I hadn't posted for a couple of games and got a little carried away!  It's funny, when you try to write something with good substance here it can be really difficult to do. Something that might take just a minute to say is often a paragraph here.

In another matter, I just could not stand it anymore and wrote that total idiot in California, Luca Evans, an email about his AP poll voting on Sunday.  I asked him if he was just pulling teams out of a hat for his absurd ranking order (and by "hat" I mean his a*s), or was it because he was totally incapable of evaluating what a good basketball team looks like? His rankings were so jacked-up it was comical. He had Auburn ranked 23rd in the poll prior to yesterday's, and from positions 11 thru 25, 10 of his rankings were graded extreme.  An extreme grade means that he placed a team more than 5 spots from their actual composite ranking. I see he has moved AU to 16th this week, double their actual composite position.  What can you say other than wow...

What a loser! Obviously, he has an ax to grind with us.

[JwgreDeux 1,279]

On 1/20/2024 at 12:35 PM, BHDAU1 said:

One of the other posters replied to my post with the paragraph below:

"First, Jaylin Williams has not transformed into a superstar who can carry us to a final four. Jaylin is a nice player who is playing well and has a good tool box. He gives us what we need at the four, but he will not be the deciding factor about how far we go in the post season or if we challenge for the SEC title. This season is is averaging about 1 more point per game than last season, and about 2 more points than his sophomore season. His rebounds, assists, and blocks are less than 1 per game different as well. Since the App. St. game he has had 4 20+ point bursts, but he has also failed to reach double digits twice. On top of all that, his shot attempts are actually down this season from last season and his sophomore season (I'm excluding his stats from 2022 as he was in a role coming off the bench behind Jabari)."

To clarify a little, I wasn't saying he is a superstar or anything like that, but to say that he has not transformed his role since Auburn's last loss is not giving credit where credit is due.  I think he WAS the missing piece if we are talking about this team's ceiling and whether they can reach it, and it's not a missing piece anymore because he has stepped-up into the role that I think Pearl has been trying to put him in.  I calculated some comparisons after the Texas A&M game to see what the biggest changes have been for him and it's pretty telling really.  From Baylor to App State, Williams averaged 7 points a game.  From the Indiana game thru T A&M he has averaged 16 points a game.  That is more than double, a significant change in anyone's estimation.  Using those same start and endpoints, his assists went from 1 to 2.6 per game, his turnovers per game stayed at 1, his 3 point shooting percentage went from 17% ALL the way up to 46%, and his overall shooting percentage went from 49% up to 65%.  Those are really spectacular improvements, we aren't talking about a couple good games, we are talking about the averages from his first 7 games to the averages of the last 8 ( I did these calculations prior to the last two games). I don't think the last couple games, in which he averaged 15 pts and has missed a total of 0 field goals out of 9 shots, and 2 free throws out of 10 does anything but further support how big of a change it has been for him.  As everyone is likely aware, the last game he was perfect from the field and from the FT line which is extremely hard to do.  I think the bottom line is that he is being the guy that the team needs him to be to have the most success possible, and it's been a long time coming! 

That was me. You are taking a stretch of games that would be a slump for him when compared to his career numbers and then comparing with a stretch where he has played well. Jaylin is going to Jaylin, that was my point. He isn't a different guy. 

[KillenTime 127]

5 minutes ago, JwgreDeux said:

That was me. You are taking a stretch of games that would be a slump for him when compared to his career numbers and then comparing with a stretch where he has played well. Jaylin is going to Jaylin, that was my point. He isn't a different guy. 

I agree he is not a different guy, but (and a big but) he is playing a little more physical and you can tell his confidence has grown and is still growing.  He is taking the ball to the hole with more power than he has previously.  He is using the backboard much better than previously.  So, no he is not a totally different guy, but is doing some things noticeably better.  To me it is more about the finer points of his game versus the box score stats.  He obviously added a little weight without impacted his speed and agility.  His offensive footwork is better in my opinion.   He is the key to a run in March. 

[Dual-Threat Rigby 8,673]

5 hours ago, KillenTime said:

I agree he is not a different guy, but (and a big but) he is playing a little more physical and you can tell his confidence has grown and is still growing.  He is taking the ball to the hole with more power than he has previously.  He is using the backboard much better than previously.  So, no he is not a totally different guy, but is doing some things noticeably better.  To me it is more about the finer points of his game versus the box score stats.  He obviously added a little weight without impacted his speed and agility.  His offensive footwork is better in my opinion.   He is the key to a run in March. 

He's just about mastered that put/baby hook shot 

[Dual-Threat Rigby 8,673]

You really gotta commend Tre for how much he's fought through since last year. I think his turnover rate was bad last year and he really just didn't understand the defense the best, but the dude's playmaking acumen probably earned him a bit more time than he ended up getting. Then you fast forward to this year, and he's simply been the best point guard, guard at the 1, player they have that can play point guard, whatever. And he's just not closing these tight games when the rookie is playing like a rookie. No shade at Aden (good bit of shade at the coaching staff), but Tre has been a consummate professional. 

 

I sing the dude's praises ad nauseam really just bc I have some delusional hope in that it'll keep him locked in, even though he'll be getting even less minutes with another ball-handling point adjacent guard next year. 

[GwillMac6 20,683]

1 hour ago, Dual-Threat Rigby said:

You really gotta commend Tre for how much he's fought through since last year. I think his turnover rate was bad last year and he really just didn't understand the defense the best, but the dude's playmaking acumen probably earned him a bit more time than he ended up getting. Then you fast forward to this year, and he's simply been the best point guard, guard at the 1, player they have that can play point guard, whatever. And he's just not closing these tight games when the rookie is playing like a rookie. No shade at Aden (good bit of shade at the coaching staff), but Tre has been a consummate professional. 

 

I sing the dude's praises ad nauseam really just bc I have some delusional hope in that it'll keep him locked in, even though he'll be getting even less minutes with another ball-handling point adjacent guard next year. 

Tre is the Dylan Cardwell for the guards. Kid just loves AU and will be here all 4 years. He will continue to improve and by the time his senior year rolls around I can see him put it all together and be a ALL SEC player. I was grateful D E A D wrong on him. I thought he was awful last year and would never be any good but he made a maaaaaaj leap in the off-season. He’s a great leader and all about the team.

[CCTAU 3,327]

9 hours ago, GwillMac6 said:

Tre is the Dylan Cardwell for the guards. Kid just loves AU and will be here all 4 years. He will continue to improve and by the time his senior year rolls around I can see him put it all together and be a ALL SEC player. I was grateful D E A D wrong on him. I thought he was awful last year and would never be any good but he made a maaaaaaj leap in the off-season. He’s a great leader and all about the team.

That's interesting. Maybe I didn't see what I thought I saw. I thought he was the one guy last year that continued to get better each game as the light came on more and more. He definitely was not ready to lead yet, but I thought he would be the guy this season. Aden is good, but young. Tre continues to grow. He's not flashy, but he just has a demeanor of calmness around him. It has been fun to watch him grow. 

[BizEagle 79]

10 minutes ago, CCTAU said:

That's interesting. Maybe I didn't see what I thought I saw. I thought he was the one guy last year that continued to get better each game as the light came on more and more. He definitely was not ready to lead yet, but I thought he would be the guy this season. Aden is good, but young. Tre continues to grow. He's not flashy, but he just has a demeanor of calmness around him. It has been fun to watch him grow. 

Aden is good for a freshman but there are 2 things to work on.  #1 he needs some more 3 point spots on the court.  Opponents know where he likes to shoot from so the cover those spots really well.  #2 his form of 3 point shots is out in front of his body (instead of over his head), which easier to block.  So he needs to alter his form or get his shots off quicker.  The bammer defenders made him uncomfortable last night.  Saw the same thing vs. App State.