Thoughts thus far on the team

[BHDAU1 240]

It has been both very fun and very frustrating to watch this year's Auburn Men's Basketball Team.  We have seen them play a pretty diverse list of teams already this season, and for the most part they have been able to impose their will on most of them.  Pearl wants them to play their style and tempo of basketball regardless of who they play, or how they are defended or attacked on the offensive end.  The most successful AU teams in the past have done this, with the alternative being the coaches game-planning to take what the opponent gives them and play tight defense.  I like this mindset and it has worked well in the past.  With that said, the absolute KEY to controlling the game and tempo is either making most of the open shots to force the opponent into a defense they they don't want to play, OR by creating fouls and then MAKING THE FREE THROWS WHEN THEY GET CALLED! In this last game, they did neither of the two.  Auburn will not win against basically any decent opponent they play if they don't do one of those 2 things well.  They lost by 5 points, and they left 10 points out there from free throws attempted and missed equating to a FT percentage of 47% (or something close to that which is absurdly terrible), and they hit only 3 OUT OF 27 3-POINTERS ATTEMPTED which left 72 points out there.  That's like a 3-pointer make rate of 11%, possibly one of the worst 3 point shooting percentages in a single game of any the Pearl-coached teams.  Auburn's rebounding was great, getting a whopping 14 more offensive rebounds and 2 more defensive rebounds than App State.  They also have 17 assists which is good, especially compared to App St.'s 6 total assists. Auburn had 66 shot attempts versus 51. Auburn did have 10 TO's, more than App St's 7, and 18 PF's compared to 13.  The bottom line is that they should have won this game by 15 points. If you just looked at the number of shot attempts, FT attempts, 3 point shot attempts, rebounds, assists, and fouls only without knowing how many were made, anyone that knows anything about basketball would guess that Auburn would win that game 9 out of 10 times.  Their other loss against Baylor was very similar, except the numbers were all much closer and AU shot better.  That game they lost at the free throw line.  Auburn shot less than 70% at the FT line, and they were called for 10 more fouls than Baylor.   This is not an isolated problem as they are already under 70% for the season at the charity stripe, just 7 games into the schedule.

IMO, the three things that HAVE to improve to have a really good season and to make a run in the tourney are:

1. FG, FT, and 3pt FG shooting has to improve quite a bit.  FG percentage needs to increase to average out to 48% or better, and the FT percentage needs to get above 70%.  72% or higher will win most games for you or at least keep free throws from beating you.  The 3pt FG percentage needs to be above 30%, with a 33% to 35% 3pt FG percentage they will be VERY hard to beat.

2. I'm all for giving the older guys on the team lots of chances to step-up and have a break-out game that gets them going the rest of the season, but if it doesn't happen after numerous games and chances, move to the next guy.  Not to pick on anyone in particular, but to give an example, if Auburn can't get a minimum of 5 rebounds and 10 points in 22 mins of playing time out of a senior in Williams, no matter WHO they are playing, then go to next guy and give him a bunch of shots to step up.  In a ugly shooting game like App. St. where the offense couldn't get going, you have to be able to turn to more than Broome to get points.  Williams (a senior) had 22 mins and only took 5 shot attempts while another guy with 4 less minutes took 9 shots, and the other guys who got 20 or more mins took 16,10, and 12 shots.  Worst case scenario you give a bunch of other guys more minutes and if they dont do something with them you go back and give Williams or whoever another chance.

3. This is a huge factor with this team thus far, and that is playing together as a complete team. Right now it's often one pass and a shot, or its 2 or 3 out of the 5 playing together and the other 2 or 3 playing for themselves.  I have complete confidence Pearl can get this fixed with some more time and finding the right group of guys.  We are not there yet by a long shot.  

Edited December 4, 2023 by BHDAU1

[JuscAUse! 1,410]

51 minutes ago, BHDAU1 said:

It has been both very fun and very frustrating to watch this year's Auburn Men's Basketball Team.  We have seen them play a pretty diverse list of teams already this season, and for the most part they have been able to impose their will on most of them.  Pearl wants them to play their style and tempo of basketball regardless of who they play, or how they are defended or attacked on the offensive end.  The most successful AU teams in the past have done this, with the alternative being the coaches game-planning to take what the opponent gives them and play tight defense.  I like this mindset and it has worked well in the past.  With that said, the absolute KEY to controlling the game and tempo is either making most of the open shots to force the opponent into a defense they they don't want to play, OR by creating fouls and then MAKING THE FREE THROWS WHEN THEY GET CALLED! In this last game, they did neither of the two.  Auburn will not win against basically any decent opponent they play if they don't do one of those 2 things well.  They lost by 5 points, and they left 10 points out there from free throws attempted and missed equating to a FT percentage of 47% (or something close to that which is absurdly terrible), and they hit only 3 OUT OF 27 3-POINTERS ATTEMPTED which left 72 points out there.  That's like a 3-pointer make rate of 11%, possibly one of the worst 3 point shooting percentages in a single game of any the Pearl-coached teams.  Auburn's rebounding was great, getting a whopping 14 more offensive rebounds and 2 more defensive rebounds than App State.  They also have 17 assists which is good, especially compared to App St.'s 6 total assists. Auburn had 66 shot attempts versus 51. Auburn did have 10 TO's, more than App St's 7, and 18 PF's compared to 13.  The bottom line is that they should have won this game by 15 points. If you just looked at the number of shot attempts, FT attempts, 3 point shot attempts, rebounds, assists, and fouls only without knowing how many were made, anyone that knows anything about basketball would guess that Auburn would win that game 9 out of 10 times.  Their other loss against Baylor was very similar, except the numbers were all much closer and AU shot better.  That game they lost at the free throw line.  Auburn shot less than 70% at the FT line, and they were called for 10 more fouls than Baylor.   This is not an isolated problem as they are already under 70% for the season at the charity stripe, just 7 games into the schedule.

IMO, the three things that HAVE to improve to have a really good season and to make a run in the tourney are:

1. FG, FT, and 3pt FG shooting has to improve quite a bit.  FG percentage needs to increase to average out to 48% or better, and the FT percentage needs to get above 70%.  72% or higher will win most games for you or at least keep free throws from beating you.  The 3pt FG percentage needs to be above 30%, with a 33% to 35% 3pt FG percentage they will be VERY hard to beat.

2. I'm all for giving the older guys on the team lots of chances to step-up and have a break-out game that gets them going the rest of the season, but if it doesn't happen after numerous games and chances, move to the next guy.  Not to pick on anyone in particular, but to give an example, if Auburn can't get a minimum of 5 rebounds and 10 points in 22 mins of playing time out of a senior in Williams, no matter WHO they are playing, then go to next guy and give him a bunch of shots to step up.  In a ugly shooting game like App. St. where the offense couldn't get going, you have to be able to turn to more than Broome to get points.  Williams (a senior) had 22 mins and only took 5 shot attempts while another guy with 4 less minutes took 9 shots, and the other guys who got 20 or more mins took 16,10, and 12 shots.  Worst case scenario you give a bunch of other guys more minutes and if they dont do something with them you go back and give Williams or whoever another chance.

3. This is a huge factor with this team thus far, and that is playing together as a complete team. Right now it's often one pass and a shot, or its 2 or 3 out of the 5 playing together and the other 2 or 3 playing for themselves.  I have complete confidence Pearl can get this fixed with some more time and finding the right group of guys.  We are not there yet by a long shot.  

There was just a lid on the bucket yesterday. We actually got good looks most of the time. Shooting nights like that shouldn't be the norm for this team, so I'll throw this one out as a one off, as far as the 3 point %.

FT percentage is unbelievable with AU. Our record last year is much better if we just shoot a good (not great) percentage from the line. 

Totally agree on the players jelling. It appears that BP wants to have 9-10 players ready to play in meaningful games. That ain't easy to do but I think it will pay dividends down the road. It will require some time and assuming we win our share (that's not all of them like some on the forum think) it could all come together at the right time. If we have 2 whole units we can depend on when it really counts...... we're cooking with grease.

Edited December 4, 2023 by JuscAUse!

[WillMunny 1,378]

As Pearl said in post-game comments Saturday, teams now have film on Auburn, and on Aden Holloway in particular, and can devise defensive strategies to counteract what we and he do best.  And it seems to be working.  Baylor was Holloway's last good shooting game, if I'm not mistaken.  He needs to make adjustments, because three pointers are the strength of his game.

Auburn is particularly hampered by its inability to shoot free throws.  This is compounded on 3-for-27 shooting days from three land, when the obvious alternative is to take the ball to the basket.  But if we can't hit free throws well, then the incentive to pound or drive low is diminished.  Our best close-to-the-rim guy is Johni Broome, who also happens to miss a lot of free throws.

As the OP said, if we can't hit threes or free throws, there's not much left in our offense to produce wins.  And we also seem to foul a lot.

Hopefully, it's just growing pains.

[NoALtiger 3,865]

5 hours ago, WillMunny said:

As Pearl said in post-game comments Saturday, teams now have film on Auburn, and on Aden Holloway in particular, and can devise defensive strategies to counteract what we and he do best.  And it seems to be working.  Baylor was Holloway's last good shooting game, if I'm not mistaken.  He needs to make adjustments, because three pointers are the strength of his game.

Auburn is particularly hampered by its inability to shoot free throws.  This is compounded on 3-for-27 shooting days from three land, when the obvious alternative is to take the ball to the basket.  But if we can't hit free throws well, then the incentive to pound or drive low is diminished.  Our best close-to-the-rim guy is Johni Broome, who also happens to miss a lot of free throws.

As the OP said, if we can't hit threes or free throws, there's not much left in our offense to produce wins.  And we also seem to foul a lot.

Hopefully, it's just growing pains.

Baylor was the first game of the year. I think you must be thinking of a different team. 

[OfficiatingExpert 126]

I think we have a very good team but they might not look great until mid February. We might have our best team in March but drop a few more painful games. If we can’t shoot the ball much worse than this, then we have to shoot the ball better. I still think we’re a 5 seed. 

[Dual-Threat Rigby 8,673]

Some fair points overall. There’s definitely room for improvement. I think the version that currently exists is going to continue to look really good is stress free situations and probably continue to tighten up as the game gets closer to the finish line. 
 

I think they play offense the right way for the most part, esp earlier in the year. A lot of sets, tempo, attempts to play inside out. You gotta appreciate that. 
 

Id go on further but at work right now. All in all, I think you did a pretty good job of describing the team though. It’s definitely not a roster where I’d try to play “locked” rotations - you want comfortability and familiarity, but I simply think too many of these dudes are around the same level of ability in scoring production (especially in variance) to not try to switch it up when things are bad. Like sitting Denver a huge part of the 2nd half once KD was cleared to come in. You gave Denver a half and some change, it wasn’t a game where the script favored 3 point shooting, and you tried something different. Unfortunately, KD didn’t end up producing much, but that was the type of scenario we’ve seen him shine in, so I appreciate the attempt

Pearl is going to have to be more flexible than he was in the earlier years of this run, and I think he’s been so far 

[gravejd 3,270]

2 bad outside shooting games in a row starts to make me uneasy. If Denver Jones cannot find his outside shot we may struggle. That would mean little to no offensive production from the 2 spot AGAIN unless we play Tre there and that would make our PG depth none existent. My biggest concern is Denver isn't even close on his shots. They are barely grazing the rim. I feel like Aden and CBM shots are atleast close and will start to fall eventually. 

[autigeremt 6,635]

Time will tell but they need to start improving from here or it's going to be a hole too deep to dig out of. 

[WillMunny 1,378]

The thing that makes me sick to my stomach is our dismal free throw shooting, especially Johni Broome.

Moses Malone didn't have one ounce of athletic ability, but still was a 76% career free throw shooter in the NBA.  And Kareem Abdul Jabbar shot sky hooks from the foul line at a respectable rate.

[Mikey 16,605]

We are playing too many people to be a cohesive unit at this time. Maybe by February all those guys can come together or maybe they never will.  I'm a believer in not going over 7 or at the most 8 deep until the game is either won or lost.

[GwillMac6 20,683]

10 minutes ago, Mikey said:

We are playing too many people to be a cohesive unit at this time. Maybe by February all those guys can come together or maybe they never will.  I'm a believer in not going over 7 or at the most 8 deep until the game is either won or lost.

Hell has frozen over because I agree with Mike. Depth is great… when it is quality depth. We are just playing 10 to be playing 10. To much wasted minutes. These kids are 20 years old. This isn’t 39 year old LeBron out there. You don’t have to manage their minutes so aggressively. Broome always starts off hot and without fail gets yanked around the under 16 timeout. We don’t play our best players as much as other teams. 
 

 

[GwillMac6 20,683]

8 hours ago, WillMunny said:

The thing that makes me sick to my stomach is our dismal free throw shooting, especially Johni Broome.

Moses Malone didn't have one ounce of athletic ability, but still was a 76% career free throw shooter in the NBA.  And Kareem Abdul Jabbar shot sky hooks from the foul line at a respectable rate.

Our free throw shooting would be a lot better if our best FT shooters Denver and CBM were getting to the line even at half the clip Broome does. It’s more often about WHO gets to the line and not if you do.

[GwillMac6 20,683]

11 hours ago, gravejd said:

2 bad outside shooting games in a row starts to make me uneasy. If Denver Jones cannot find his outside shot we may struggle. That would mean little to no offensive production from the 2 spot AGAIN unless we play Tre there and that would make our PG depth none existent. My biggest concern is Denver isn't even close on his shots. They are barely grazing the rim. I feel like Aden and CBM shots are atleast close and will start to fall eventually. 

 

9 hours ago, autigeremt said:

Time will tell but they need to start improving from here or it's going to be a hole too deep to dig out of. 

We aren’t really running anything to get our guards open looks. It’s been a bad shooting 2 games because our 3 point shooters aren’t getting good clean open looks. They are having to force it and this is the results we are having from it. Playing through Broome is the right move since he’s our best player but I think it’s hurting our guard’s involvement in the offense.

[OfficiatingExpert 126]

23 minutes ago, GwillMac6 said:

 

We aren’t really running anything to get our guards open looks

We never really run anything on offense

[gravejd 3,270]

10 hours ago, OfficiatingExpert said:

We never really run anything on offense

Hey now. The top of the key screen for Aden is a set play. Buts that about all I got lol

[autan 737]

The shooting talents of the newcomers that Coach Pearl and others were raving about was against weaker competition for the most part (HS and lower tier college teams mainly). It's going to take some time to gain the confidence and make adjustments against the athleticism of our opponents. FTs is a different thing, but like someone said if you only go to the line once in a game it's hard to get into any rhythm. Another thing that I think was pointed out, our newbies were probably used to playing 35 minutes in a game as opposed to 15 minutes at Auburn. Hopefully they will all adjust very soon. WDE!!

[ArgoEagle 1,788]

22 hours ago, gravejd said:

2 bad outside shooting games in a row starts to make me uneasy. If Denver Jones cannot find his outside shot we may struggle. That would mean little to no offensive production from the 2 spot AGAIN unless we play Tre there and that would make our PG depth none existent. My biggest concern is Denver isn't even close on his shots. They are barely grazing the rim. I feel like Aden and CBM shots are atleast close and will start to fall eventually. 

Yep!  I thought we were going to be raining 3's this year & instead we're showering bricks

[ArgoEagle 1,788]

If I were BP I would devote 1 whole practice to shooting nothing but Free Throws!  Missed FT absolutely killing us!

Edited December 6, 2023 by ArgoEagle

[KillenTime 127]

13 hours ago, GwillMac6 said:

 

We aren’t really running anything to get our guards open looks. It’s been a bad shooting 2 games because our 3 point shooters aren’t getting good clean open looks. They are having to force it and this is the results we are having from it. Playing through Broome is the right move since he’s our best player but I think it’s hurting our guard’s involvement in the offense.

Denver had wide open looks and Aden did too.  Now Aden forced a couple that looked like he was trying to draw a foul.  Williams was wide open.  Denver was short on a couple of non-contested shots.  

[JuscAUse! 1,410]

19 hours ago, Mikey said:

We are playing too many people to be a cohesive unit at this time. Maybe by February all those guys can come together or maybe they never will.  I'm a believer in not going over 7 or at the most 8 deep until the game is either won or lost.

You are giving up some on the defensive end by not playing everyone that can contribute now. It will take time. If some don't step up, that will be dropped from the rotation. This ain't football, there's a lot of games, and we have time. I wouldn't be surprised if we wind up with 7-8 we can depend on. I will be ecstatic if it is more. But they are new and this is the way you find out. Hopefully they will jell. 

[JuscAUse! 1,410]

19 hours ago, GwillMac6 said:

 

We aren’t really running anything to get our guards open looks. It’s been a bad shooting 2 games because our 3 point shooters aren’t getting good clean open looks. They are having to force it and this is the results we are having from it. Playing through Broome is the right move since he’s our best player but I think it’s hurting our guard’s involvement in the offense.

I actually think we're taking good shots a good percentage of the time. Not every time as shooters think they'll make everything. If we're still having these conversations in mid January, we got problems. But it's early, and I don't panic early. 

Of course, I get more worried if we're playing like champs in December and early January, so what do I know? 

[tigeraddikt 1,610]

Why has CBP not hired the collective posters on this site as an asst coach? A lot of good analysis that would no doubt lead to half as many losses. Been that way for years now. Sit an open laptop on the seat between Stevie Pearl and the heavy fella. 

Edited December 7, 2023 by tigeraddikt

[AUGoo 2,664]

I've asked this question before.  

How do B'ball teams train during a season?  It's pre-season.  We saw Duke, UK, and another lose to lower tiered teams this past weekend.  

Makes me wonder if early in the season,  these guys are in a training period where they are playing with tired legs.  They play against guys who have circled this game for a year and trained to have their hops in this pre season game when all the big dogs are tired.  All these shooting woes happen to players who are tired.

Any validity to this thought?

[JuscAUse! 1,410]

28 minutes ago, AUGoo said:

I've asked this question before.  

How do B'ball teams train during a season?  It's pre-season.  We saw Duke, UK, and another lose to lower tiered teams this past weekend.  

Makes me wonder if early in the season,  these guys are in a training period where they are playing with tired legs.  They play against guys who have circled this game for a year and trained to have their hops in this pre season game when all the big dogs are tired.  All these shooting woes happen to players who are tired.

Any validity to this thought?

The longer they play together, the better they will be. Every team will peak at some point. You can win a conference title and a lot of games by peaking early to middle part of the season, with some luck. To make a run in the Dance, you have to peak at the right time and have a little luck. And decent refs. 

[AURex 2,000]

I certainly agree regarding FT shooting. Everyone should be in the gym shooting FTs every single day. And sooner or later, CBP will be awarding PT, especially late in halves, to those who can make FTs.

The big mystery to me is the player CBP pulled in at guard who was draining 3s like the second coming of JJ Reddick or Marcus Howard. He's had one (count 'em, ONE) decent game. He gets his minutes, he just cannot seem to get the ball in the hole. Terrible shooting percentage. He needs to be taking some of the pressure off of Holloway. And I don't buy the fact that he was previously playing lower tier BB. He's getting his shots. He's just not making them.

That said, I agree with the observation that, hey, they will gel and improve in the coming months or not gel and be a mediocre team. One or the other. hahahaha