Thoughts thus far on the team

[KillenTime 127]

On 1/4/2024 at 10:31 PM, AURex said:

Frankly, I do not like CBP popping up and spouting *We are going to LOSE games." I don't want that kind of attitude.

I want the attitude going into SEC play of "We are going to WIN EVERY GAME" and "We have the team, we have the scheme, we will win!"

Okay, so maybe Auburn doesn't win every game. But I want the team (and CBP) going into every single game thinking and proclaiming to his players and to the fans "we will win this game."

Every Game! I want to hear fro CBP and every player "We will win this game!"

 

 

Geez.  Basketball is different than football.  You have to coach through the peaks and valleys.  You just aren't going to shoot the ball good enough to win every game.  There is always games where the ball just won't go in.  See App St.  There will be others.  With that said, you can always play great defense, give great effort, box out, get on the floor for loose balls and stay in the game at the free throw line which can result in a win on a bad shooting night.  

[HAPvsOA 287]

I love this team. They remembered last year and kept landing haymakers until the end against Arkansas. Then what a scrappy win against T A&M. A younger team would probably have lost that one, but our defense, bench and free throw shooting were very good down the stretch. Kenpom and Bilas had us top 10 even before the A&M win.

I know there will be ups and downs with this team, but after the App State loss, they've been on a mission. I'm hoping for a top 3 SEC finish and a loss in one of the last 2 SEC games to get them laser focused for tourney play.   

Edited January 10 by HAPvsOA

[NCAubs 377]

8 hours ago, BHDAU1 said:

Wow, this team is so F-ing solid in about every respect that matters isn't it!  This Auburn team goes from beating Arkansas by the largest point margin in the ENTIRE history of their Bud Walton arena, to a game where then had a real "gut-check" win in a physical battle where the only guy on Auburn's team shooting well was J. Williams.  The difference between this Auburn team and some others that might have been just as talented in years past is the ridiculous depth on the bench and the RELENTLESS EFFORT that all the players expend for every minute they are on the court. They had stretches where they were committing totally unforced turnovers and missing point-blank easy shots, but made up for it completely on the defensive side.  Baker-M was having a nightmare game for most of his minutes, turning the ball over several times in a handful of possessions, fouling at the wrong time, and missing everything from free throws to 3 pointer to lay-ups.  Despite the poor play, he stuck with it and played as hard as he could on defense and redeemed himself by the end of the game with his effort.  In the last 10 mins of the 2nd half he was dialed-in defensively, causing A&M to make several mistakes and turn the ball over, along with altering shots in the paint with his length and shot-blocking skills.

      If you have read this thread from the start, you will notice that a lot of people are recognizing the total transformation of Williams that has occurred starting right after the App State loss in the Indiana game.  He went from being thought of as a "bust" by myself and many others to having 8 straight games where he has had a BIG impact on the game!  His defense is superb, he has active hands, does well at playing tight to his man without fouling, and is adept at driving his man into help when needed.  His offense is exponentially better than prior to the loss this season, going all the way back thru the last two years.  Frankly, he went from being a totally unreliable and streaky shooter, with little to no visible self-confidence on the court, to seemingly one of just a couple guys on the team that is getting his shots/offense and scoring points throughout the game regardless of who is guarding him or if he is doubled.  We can be pretty damn sure that these last 4 or 5 opponents game-planned specifically for him, and have been totally unable to slow him down at all.  When they do occasionally stop him from driving to the basket or from getting an open shot, he is doing fan-******-tastic passing the ball to the right guys and getting assists.  His passes are crisp, accurate, and well-timed.  His transformation has also included a great improvement in his foul shooting.  IMO, he is one of just a few guys on the team that I want handling the ball in the last minutes of a close game and taking the foul shots when the opponent is fouling as fast as possible to try and climb back into the game.  

      This team ABSOLUTELY has the skill, talent, togetherness, confidence, and intelligence to win the SEC regular season crown, the SEC tourney title, or go deep in the NCAA tourney if they keep playing as a team and with maximum effort.  I would even go as far as saying this team has the potential to be even better than Auburn's Final Four team from 2018-2019.  Its a different kind of team for sure, but one that is built to win games even when their shooting is poor for long stretches.  The '19 team could absolutely blow people out and demoralize them hitting 3 point shots in bunches, but if those 3's were not falling it was incredibly hard for them to generate offense.  

You should get a job at al.com.  You write better than anyone on there. 

[JwgreDeux 1,279]

Brace yourselves for a few unpopular opinions and a few observations that are reasons for high expectations. 

Unpopular opinions:

First, Jaylin Williams has not transformed into a superstar who can carry us to a final four. Jaylin is a nice player who is playing well and has a good tool box. He gives us what we need at the four, but he will not be the deciding factor about how far we go in the post season or if we challenge for the SEC title. This season is is averaging about 1 more point per game than last season, and about 2 more points than his sophomore season. His rebounds, assists, and blocks are less than 1 per game different as well. Since the App. St. game he has had 4 20+ point bursts, but he has also failed to reach double digits twice. On top of all that, his shot attempts are actually down this season from last season and his sophomore season (I'm excluding his stats from 2022 as he was in a role coming off the bench behind Jabari).

Second, we haven't proven we can consistently close out games. The thing that has derailed several promising seasons recently has been our inability to close out games. We have not done enough to feel comfortable that we have fixed this issue. The A&M game is the only close game against a good opponent we have won, and they made numerous self inflicted errors down the stretch. So the jury is still out on this issue. It is a bit concerning that Holloway was on the bench to close out that game. 

Third, there is reason to be concerned about Aden Holloway. After starting the season by reach double figures in points in 4 of the first 5 games, he has failed to reach double digits in points in any of the last 5 games. Also of concern is that his assist numbers were down during that stretch as well. And most concerning of all is that I have not seen the same defensive tenacity from him that the rest of the team is playing with. In our first 10 games he was averaging 23.2 minutes per game; In the last 5 he is averaging 19.8. It is early in SEC play, but Aden is going to have to make some adjustments to his play or he will continue to lose minutes to Donaldson. 

Reasons for high expectations:

First, the primary thing I was interested to see about the new comers was how they played defense. The good news is they play defense at a very high level. Jones and CBM in particular are much better than I expected on ball defenders, and that goes a long way in giving me reason to believe this group is legit. As mentioned Aden Holloway has room to improve in this area, but overall I'm happy with the new group's level of defense. 

Second, veteran guys making improvements. While Williams has not transformed himself, he is playing good basketball. His shooting percentages are better at the 2 and the 3 and are the primary reason he appears to be performing so much better. Also, Cardwell and KD are playing better basketball. Cardwell is averaging almost 2 more points per game and his offensive and defensive rebounding numbers are better with all other stats pretty much flat, while only getting about 90 seconds more playing time. KD is getting 4 less minutes (thankfully) but at the same time improving many of his stats. His turnovers are down, assists are up, rebounds are up, field goal % up, steals up, and only averaging 1 less point. Watching him play his energy is infectious and he has hurt us less this year and truly changed multiple games so far this season. 

Third, we might have the best quality depth in college basketball. We are 7th in the country in bench scoring per game at 37.4 pts per, only BYU has more among power conference teams (making us 1st in the SEC). Obviously we are well regarded in the advanced metrics sitting at 4th in KenPom, and looking at advanced metrics, 4 of our top 6 players (in the normal playing rotation) in +/- per game are bench players. CBM, Cardwell, Donaldson, and KD making that top six. Though we are early in SEC play, both of our wins has shown the value of our second group. 

Things to watch:

How does Aden Holloway play the rest of the way. We can win a lot of games with him playing at his current level, but for us to truly be elite he has to take a step forward. He has to play more aggressive on offense going to the rim and creating. He shoots well, but his ball handling is what can truly be special about his game. We need him to take a step forward creating off the bounce. 

Can Chaney Johnson improve. Chaney hasn't shown much other than flashes of potential so far. He really hurt us in the A&M game and has been very inconsistent. I think he will continue to get minutes to rest Williams, but if he could be more than a minutes filler and contribute a bit more on offense and defense this bench gets even stronger. 

Can Broome continue his improved play. Broome is quietly having one of the most efficient seasons in college basketball. His improved ability to play away from the basket is creating more room for the offense to move/work and greatly benefiting this team. All while still being a physical paint presence on both ends of the floor. Broome struggled with bigger guys some last season. His improved ability to shoot and put the ball on the floor at the top of the key should give him addition tools when he faces those players this season. 

Can we keep the chemistry alive. The leading factor in our final four run was the team chemistry. Yes we had Chuma and hot shooting guards, but it was the chemistry that made each of those players better, and the team more than just the sum of its parts. We saw the lack of that chemistry derail the season we had Jabari/Kessler. This group has less top end talent than previous seasons, but can the current chemistry bond and develop us into something more than those teams that came up shorter than our expectations?

[NCAubs 377]

On 1/11/2024 at 12:13 PM, JwgreDeux said:

Brace yourselves for a few unpopular opinions and a few observations that are reasons for high expectations. 

Unpopular opinions:

First, Jaylin Williams has not transformed into a superstar who can carry us to a final four. Jaylin is a nice player who is playing well and has a good tool box. He gives us what we need at the four, but he will not be the deciding factor about how far we go in the post season or if we challenge for the SEC title. This season is is averaging about 1 more point per game than last season, and about 2 more points than his sophomore season. His rebounds, assists, and blocks are less than 1 per game different as well. Since the App. St. game he has had 4 20+ point bursts, but he has also failed to reach double digits twice. On top of all that, his shot attempts are actually down this season from last season and his sophomore season (I'm excluding his stats from 2022 as he was in a role coming off the bench behind Jabari).

Second, we haven't proven we can consistently close out games. The thing that has derailed several promising seasons recently has been our inability to close out games. We have not done enough to feel comfortable that we have fixed this issue. The A&M game is the only close game against a good opponent we have won, and they made numerous self inflicted errors down the stretch. So the jury is still out on this issue. It is a bit concerning that Holloway was on the bench to close out that game. 

Third, there is reason to be concerned about Aden Holloway. After starting the season by reach double figures in points in 4 of the first 5 games, he has failed to reach double digits in points in any of the last 5 games. Also of concern is that his assist numbers were down during that stretch as well. And most concerning of all is that I have not seen the same defensive tenacity from him that the rest of the team is playing with. In our first 10 games he was averaging 23.2 minutes per game; In the last 5 he is averaging 19.8. It is early in SEC play, but Aden is going to have to make some adjustments to his play or he will continue to lose minutes to Donaldson. 

Reasons for high expectations:

First, the primary thing I was interested to see about the new comers was how they played defense. The good news is they play defense at a very high level. Jones and CBM in particular are much better than I expected on ball defenders, and that goes a long way in giving me reason to believe this group is legit. As mentioned Aden Holloway has room to improve in this area, but overall I'm happy with the new group's level of defense. 

Second, veteran guys making improvements. While Williams has not transformed himself, he is playing good basketball. His shooting percentages are better at the 2 and the 3 and are the primary reason he appears to be performing so much better. Also, Cardwell and KD are playing better basketball. Cardwell is averaging almost 2 more points per game and his offensive and defensive rebounding numbers are better with all other stats pretty much flat, while only getting about 90 seconds more playing time. KD is getting 4 less minutes (thankfully) but at the same time improving many of his stats. His turnovers are down, assists are up, rebounds are up, field goal % up, steals up, and only averaging 1 less point. Watching him play his energy is infectious and he has hurt us less this year and truly changed multiple games so far this season. 

Third, we might have the best quality depth in college basketball. We are 7th in the country in bench scoring per game at 37.4 pts per, only BYU has more among power conference teams (making us 1st in the SEC). Obviously we are well regarded in the advanced metrics sitting at 4th in KenPom, and looking at advanced metrics, 4 of our top 6 players (in the normal playing rotation) in +/- per game are bench players. CBM, Cardwell, Donaldson, and KD making that top six. Though we are early in SEC play, both of our wins has shown the value of our second group. 

Things to watch:

How does Aden Holloway play the rest of the way. We can win a lot of games with him playing at his current level, but for us to truly be elite he has to take a step forward. He has to play more aggressive on offense going to the rim and creating. He shoots well, but his ball handling is what can truly be special about his game. We need him to take a step forward creating off the bounce. 

Can Chaney Johnson improve. Chaney hasn't shown much other than flashes of potential so far. He really hurt us in the A&M game and has been very inconsistent. I think he will continue to get minutes to rest Williams, but if he could be more than a minutes filler and contribute a bit more on offense and defense this bench gets even stronger. 

Can Broome continue his improved play. Broome is quietly having one of the most efficient seasons in college basketball. His improved ability to play away from the basket is creating more room for the offense to move/work and greatly benefiting this team. All while still being a physical paint presence on both ends of the floor. Broome struggled with bigger guys some last season. His improved ability to shoot and put the ball on the floor at the top of the key should give him addition tools when he faces those players this season. 

Can we keep the chemistry alive. The leading factor in our final four run was the team chemistry. Yes we had Chuma and hot shooting guards, but it was the chemistry that made each of those players better, and the team more than just the sum of its parts. We saw the lack of that chemistry derail the season we had Jabari/Kessler. This group has less top end talent than previous seasons, but can the current chemistry bond and develop us into something more than those teams that came up shorter than our expectations?

Can’t argue with the majority of this…

 

I don’t agree about closing out games.  We seemed to finish against TAMU pretty well.  The fact that Tre was playing so well was more of a factor to the lineup than Aden underperforming, although he did not play well that night.  
 

I also think Jaylin has gotten more confident in his role and could be the one to take the big shot as needed. 
 

100% agree than Chaney and Aden (and I will add Denver to that group) need to improve for us to make a deep run.  

[81spacetiger 157]

I like the thoughts posted so far. 

I note we are scoring a little over 10 more points a game than last year.  I know each game is different, but if we had 10 more points per game last year, we might have won [a lot] more games.  Perhaps a better way to say this is we might have had fewer loses; the best-case scenario might have been only 2 loses. 

I think if the chemistry continues to improve, assists stay high, FT % improves; we might finish 27-4 heading into the SEC tourney.  

[AUGoo 2,664]

Feels like  FT% has improved drastically.  Broome hitting 8 of 10 against aTm kept the momentum going.  Also feels like the officials have let us play this year. Last year felt like every time we go some Mo going, the whistles would break out and break us down.   Is that because we are playing cleaner or just have grown enough to get some respect from the officials, or is that even a thing?

[NCAubs 377]

I rescind my previous statement about closing out games.  Despite the win, we could have played better the last 10 minutes. 

[AuburnNTexas 7,149]

This is areally good team that plays hard especially on the defensive end. They are up and down on their 3 point shooting but defense and having ability for more than one player to step up is big. One key to how good we can be is how much Aden grows this year. With his handle he should push the ball up more and he needs to drive and hit floaters in the lane. He must also improve his on ball defense.  Right now he settle to much on his 3 point shot. He has the ability to do more and I believe he will get better. Luckily we have Tre for when Aden isn't hitting. 

[OfficiatingExpert 126]

I think we’re the best team in the league, but not by much. 

[JwgreDeux 1,279]

On 1/13/2024 at 7:14 PM, NCAubs said:

I rescind my previous statement about closing out games.  Despite the win, we could have played better the last 10 minutes. 

The irony here is that we had a mid second half let down and LSU closed it to 8 with 2:00 left. From there we closed well and won by 15. From that point (2:12 left in the game) I believe we scored on every possession. It was 73-81 us with 2:12 left to play and it ended 78-93, a 5-12 run in our favor down the stretch, included 6 made free throws. Again Donaldson was at the 1 to close the game out along with KD at the 2, CBM at the 3, Williams at 4 and Broome at the 5. 

[81spacetiger 157]

Donaldson was at the 1 to close the game out along with KD at the 2, CBM at the 3, Williams at 4 and Broome at the 5. 

^^^^

This

[HAPvsOA 287]

3 hours ago, 81spacetiger said:

Donaldson was at the 1 to close the game out along with KD at the 2, CBM at the 3, Williams at 4 and Broome at the 5. 

^^^^

This

I really like that lineup, but think that this all reserve lineup needs to play together more. Not long ago it was tops in the country, but now I think it hasn't played enough to qualify for the current top 10 list not behind a paywall. 

 

Edited January 17 by HAPvsOA

[keeperoftheplains 131]

Aden has the skill. He just doesn't have the confidence to go with it yet. When that happens he's going to be a sniper. I truly hope we get to see Holloway, Donaldson, and Pettiford on the same team next year.  That combo of experience and talent in the backcourt is what March dreams are made of.

[aucanucktiger 1,794]

Free wheelin' Pearlball - love it when it's working, less so when it isn't. It just cracks me up how the scheme is "take the shot ut you have it" regardless of stats. 

[Quietmaninthecorner 1,945]

I think this team is A LOT of fun to watch.   

It doesn't hurt that we have been successful so far. 

[JwgreDeux 1,279]

4 hours ago, aucanucktiger said:

Free wheelin' Pearlball - love it when it's working, less so when it isn't. It just cracks me up how the scheme is "take the shot ut you have it" regardless of stats. 

You are doing a great disservice to Pearl and the team if you believe this. His flex scheme is well known as is the fact that he emphasizes read/react principles. Because of the freedom to read/react some wrongly assume there isnt a scheme to work within. There is and its a good one. We also have some of the best SLOB plays and BLOB plays out there that get buckets. 

[JwgreDeux 1,279]

Regarding my earlier comments on Jaylin Williams. Last night is a prime example of how he isn't a dramatically different player. He had a great game, perfect from the field! He had 17 at the half! He only took two shots in the second half. A closer, a killer, a alpha who is on a heater like he was is going to get 10 shots at minimum in the second half.  THIS IS NOT A CRITICISM. Just an observation that he is a great college player, who's game is best in a "let the game come to me" context. That is who is he, and who he is going to be. He is being more productive, but I think it is a product of the quality of the team vs a dramatic change in his mentality. 

[arktiger1975 518]

37 minutes ago, JwgreDeux said:

You are doing a great disservice to Pearl and the team if you believe this. His flex scheme is well known as is the fact that he emphasizes read/react principles. Because of the freedom to read/react some wrongly assume there isnt a scheme to work within. There is and its a good one. We also have some of the best SLOB plays and BLOB plays out there that get buckets. 

I saw a video this morning ("Field of 68, I think) where they said, "this is a typical Bruce Pearl team, turn it over 20 times and still win". Several people, including me, informed them that we have one of the lowest turnover rates, and best assist-turnover rates in the nation. Truth is, we have played very clean basketball this year. 

[mustache eagle 2,406]

17 minutes ago, arktiger1975 said:

I saw a video this morning ("Field of 68, I think) where they said, "this is a typical Bruce Pearl team, turn it over 20 times and still win". Several people, including me, informed them that we have one of the lowest turnover rates, and best assist-turnover rates in the nation. Truth is, we have played very clean basketball this year. 

Yep, I think we only had 10 total turnovers.  Pretty sure it was 5 in each half.  Our problem last night was Vandy shooting 25 second half free throws.….. and still won by 15 away

there is some crap commentary out there on the interwebs.

Edited January 18 by mustache eagle

[BizEagle 79]

8 hours ago, mustache eagle said:

Yep, I think we only had 10 total turnovers.  Pretty sure it was 5 in each half.  Our problem last night was Vandy shooting 25 second half free throws.….. and still won by 15 away

those 25 free throws by Vandy were produced by 1 over the top official.  I hope we don't see that guy again.  He was trying to be the star and control the game.  A competent official would not have called 1/2 of those.

I was a little disappointed that Cardwell tried 3 times to dribble when he was 1 step from the hoop and turned the ball over each time, when he could have taken it straight to the hoop.  I thought the coaches had cured him of that mistake.  A big like Cardwell can't be successful that way.  The ball has to travel too far to the floor and back, so the defenders were all over him.  I hope they work on curing that this week.  It's great that he is hitting free throws, rebounding and defending but taking a dribble when he is close to the basket is high school-ish stuff.  With the new charging rules, he should go straight to the basket and let some some defender commit suicide, trying to stop that godzilla monster.

[AU Is Gold 410]

We need to find a way to finish games. This team is too experienced and talented to lose huge leads. There is a balance between being controlled, but also having a killer mindset when the opponent starts a run. The excitement for the year will end quickly come tournament time if we repeat our previous mistakes.

I love watching this defense though. Curious to see who Pearl has defending Sears the majority of the time. 

[AUloggerhead 2,234]

9 hours ago, mustache eagle said:

Yep, I think we only had 10 total turnovers.  Pretty sure it was 5 in each half.  Our problem last night was Vandy shooting 25 second half free throws.….. and still won by 15 away

there is some crap commentary out there on the interwebs.

And only 8 turnovers against LSU.  There has been a marked improvement over last year's team -- especially with Jaylin & Tre, and more discipline out of KD & Cardwell.  Cardwell's offensive game consists largely of the 2-handed dunk ... no matter, his blocks have deterred a lot of opponents from coming inside and unlike last year he's hanging on to the ball better.  Still don't want him dribbling too much.  As for Aden ... I don't know what people expect to see but he's only a FR so he's got room for a lot of improvement.  Would like to see him shoot 3s from the line and not from 6-ft behind it -- his % would go up.  This is a much better team than last year and I'm enjoying watching them play.  

[KillenTime 127]

On 1/18/2024 at 10:09 AM, JwgreDeux said:

Regarding my earlier comments on Jaylin Williams. Last night is a prime example of how he isn't a dramatically different player. He had a great game, perfect from the field! He had 17 at the half! He only took two shots in the second half. A closer, a killer, a alpha who is on a heater like he was is going to get 10 shots at minimum in the second half.  THIS IS NOT A CRITICISM. Just an observation that he is a great college player, who's game is best in a "let the game come to me" context. That is who is he, and who he is going to be. He is being more productive, but I think it is a product of the quality of the team vs a dramatic change in his mentality. 

I think we will see Bruce go to set plays to get Jaylin the ball in the Dance.  Similar to what we did with Chuma down the stretch.  No need to use the set plays yet.  I feel it comin though.  Look for Jaylin to set up Mid-Post (not high post and not low post) with his back to the basket in the crunch in March.  We will put the ball in his hands when we need a bucket and crash the boards back side.  Should be fun - can't wait. 

[KillenTime 127]

14 hours ago, AU Is Gold said:

We need to find a way to finish games. This team is too experienced and talented to lose huge leads. There is a balance between being controlled, but also having a killer mindset when the opponent starts a run. The excitement for the year will end quickly come tournament time if we repeat our previous mistakes.

I love watching this defense though. Curious to see who Pearl has defending Sears the majority of the time. 

I expect Denver to guard Sears.  Aden can't.  KD can harass him but can't stay in front of him.  Donaldson can muscle him up, but I think Sears is too quick.  Should be interesting as much as we switch.