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Thoughts thus far on the team


BHDAU1

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35 minutes ago, KillenTime said:

I expect Denver to guard Sears.  Aden can't.  KD can harass him but can't stay in front of him.  Donaldson can muscle him up, but I think Sears is too quick.  Should be interesting as much as we switch.  

Sears will be tough no doubt. But I think we have some tough matchups for them in certain spots as well 

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9 minutes ago, arktiger1975 said:

Sears will be tough no doubt. But I think we have some tough matchups for them in certain spots as well 

I would think it could be as simple as do their guards win or do our bigs win tbh…

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26 minutes ago, Dual-Threat Rigby said:

I would think it could be as simple as do their guards win or do our bigs win tbh…

Our guards are good enough that it’s a push and our front court is better than theirs. I’m not worried either way because Alabama is good at taking Quad 1 losses. 

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1 hour ago, OfficiatingExpert said:

Our guards are good enough that it’s a push and our front court is better than theirs. I’m not worried either way because Alabama is good at taking Quad 1 losses. 

Ok, that is funny, but they do have 2 Quad 1 wins, which is 2 more than us.  I'm sold on this Auburn team, but a few quad 1 wins would be a nice confirmation.

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53 minutes ago, OfficiatingExpert said:

Our guards are good enough that it’s a push and our front court is better than theirs. I’m not worried either way because Alabama is good at taking Quad 1 losses. 

I liked the closing line there, but I wouldn't say that about the guards. We got better depth, but Sears is probably right there amongst the NPOY favorites if a couple of those Q1 games go a different direction. I don't think we have a dude in his stratopshere right now. And the good (or bad in this case) thing about this sport is that one dude can really win you a LOT of games. They honestly win the 1-3 pretty safely between their Sears-Griffen-Estrada trifecta against Aden-Denver-CMo. Griffen is a pretty valid defender and can actually score, which puts him easily over CMo or Denver. 

 

I actually think that if anyone has the advantage amongst the starters, it'd be them. Which isn't a foreign concept - I think we've lost the advantage as far the starters in a couple matchups this season. Based on current trends, Aden will disappear after the first few minutes, and Denver-CMo...Now, Broome has had some rough moments against bigs with size, and Nelson/Nick Pringle are not that. But, Broome hasn't had to defend a "center" as fleet of foot as Nelson, and we already know how he looks moving in space.

If Jaylin-Broome can absolutely dominate their matchups, that can definitely end up being a push or a slight advantage for us. But on paper, I'd take their 5 stylistically over ours 

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Auburn hasn't been properly challenged, but that is about to change. 

These are the current quad 1-4 games remaining. 

Quad 1: Red

Quad 2: Yellow

Quad 3: Green

Quad 4: Blue

 

Screenshot_20240119-123020~5.png

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3 minutes ago, AU Is Gold said:

Auburn hasn't been properly challenged, but that is about to change. 

These are the current quad 1-4 games remaining. 

Quad 1: Red

Quad 2: Yellow

Quad 3: Green

Quad 4: Blue

 

Screenshot_20240119-123020~5.png

Really terrific scheduling by Auburn in the first half of the year honestly. 

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Also a good lesson on why it is hard to make scheduled and know exactly what you are getting. Notre Dame, Indiana, and USC would all be games that would normally earn you a lot of cred. But all those teams are having kind of disappointing years. Ok St. was also in that early season tourney but lost to St Bonaventure so that was another big win opp lost. But good thing about being in SEC.

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9 minutes ago, gravejd said:

Also a good lesson on why it is hard to make scheduled and know exactly what you are getting. Notre Dame, Indiana, and USC would all be games that would normally earn you a lot of cred. But all those teams are having kind of disappointing years. Ok St. was also in that early season tourney but lost to St Bonaventure so that was another big win opp lost. But good thing about being in SEC.

Exactly! A lot of those name teams that are usually good have been busts so far. Impossible to predict. I know USC was thought to have Final Four potential before the season, and Indiana was a fringe top 25 team.

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Does anyone know where to find some information on player eligibility for this team? Specifically wanting to know if Cardwell, Broome, and KD have any years left. 

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5 hours ago, Dual-Threat Rigby said:

I liked the closing line there, but I wouldn't say that about the guards. We got better depth, but Sears is probably right there amongst the NPOY favorites if a couple of those Q1 games go a different direction. I don't think we have a dude in his stratopshere right now. And the good (or bad in this case) thing about this sport is that one dude can really win you a LOT of games. They honestly win the 1-3 pretty safely between their Sears-Griffen-Estrada trifecta against Aden-Denver-CMo. Griffen is a pretty valid defender and can actually score, which puts him easily over CMo or Denver. 

 

I actually think that if anyone has the advantage amongst the starters, it'd be them. Which isn't a foreign concept - I think we've lost the advantage as far the starters in a couple matchups this season. Based on current trends, Aden will disappear after the first few minutes, and Denver-CMo...Now, Broome has had some rough moments against bigs with size, and Nelson/Nick Pringle are not that. But, Broome hasn't had to defend a "center" as fleet of foot as Nelson, and we already know how he looks moving in space.

If Jaylin-Broome can absolutely dominate their matchups, that can definitely end up being a push or a slight advantage for us. But on paper, I'd take their 5 stylistically over ours 

You forgot about Tre Donaldson. We’re going to win on Wednesday because of Tre Donaldson. We’re going to call him Ice Tre after this. Book it. 

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7 hours ago, Dual-Threat Rigby said:

I would think it could be as simple as do their guards win or do our bigs win tbh…

Their bigs are looooooong.

I'm worried about our inside game.

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1 hour ago, OfficiatingExpert said:

You forgot about Tre Donaldson. We’re going to win on Wednesday because of Tre Donaldson. We’re going to call him Ice Tre after this. Book it. 

I didn't - that was a post about the starters vs the starters. 

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2 hours ago, AUGoo said:

Their bigs are looooooong.

I'm worried about our inside game.

Length can theoretically be a problem, but at least for Broome, he usually struggles against size. I can't think of too many instances where he's faced a Nelson like guy that was long, but not big. If anyone else could, feel free to let me know. I can see where that COULD hurt him though, certainly. He's been creating alot of buckets recently off of putbacks and the easy ones in transition. With him not getting much lift off of his shots and Grant being faster than him, you would think those buckets are tougher to come by than they have been 

Jaylin's matchup will be about his size with an inch or two at some weight, but nothing he should be too unused to. 

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3 hours ago, AU Is Gold said:

Does anyone know where to find some information on player eligibility for this team? Specifically wanting to know if Cardwell, Broome, and KD have any years left. 

Anyone who played in 2020 should still have a covid year. Dylan is a 4 year player, so he should still have one left. I believe KD and Broome were also freshmen in 2020, so it should be the same for them... 

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3 minutes ago, Dual-Threat Rigby said:

Length can theoretically be a problem, but at least for Broome, he usually struggles against size. I can't think of too many instances where he's faced a Nelson like guy that was long, but not big. If anyone else could, feel free to let me know. I can see where that COULD hurt him though, certainly. He's been creating alot of buckets recently off of putbacks and the easy ones in transition. With him not getting much lift off of his shots and Grant being faster than him, you would think those buckets are tougher to come by than they have been 

Jaylin's matchup will be about his size with an inch or two at some weight, but nothing he should be too unused to. 

Nelson and Griffin seem to struggle moving laterally.

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2 minutes ago, arktiger1975 said:

Nelson and Griffin seem to struggle moving laterally.

I can't find any other clips than this one (I hate the twitter search algorithm) 

 

 

But he did a really good job of chasing someone who's a more dynamic ball handling threat in Wendell as a freshman. I remember this game sticking in my brain quite a bit from him.

If we get a version of Aden that chooses to be more of a guy going to the rim then this post may be invalidated, but I think that's a REALLY good defensive option they have for him. 

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31 minutes ago, Dual-Threat Rigby said:

I can't find any other clips than this one (I hate the twitter search algorithm) 

 

 

But he did a really good job of chasing someone who's a more dynamic ball handling threat in Wendell as a freshman. I remember this game sticking in my brain quite a bit from him.

If we get a version of Aden that chooses to be more of a guy going to the rim then this post may be invalidated, but I think that's a REALLY good defensive option they have for him. 

I've seen other videos from this year that show them getting beaten off the bounce a lot. Their defensive numbers definitely stink.

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55 minutes ago, Dual-Threat Rigby said:

I didn't - that was a post about the starters vs the starters. 

Well Tre has closed as many games as Aden so they’re more like co-starters and CBM has played way more minutes than CMO lately. So if you’re comparing starters I think you have to look at Tre and CBM because they’re playing starter roles. 

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20 minutes ago, OfficiatingExpert said:

Well Tre has closed as many games as Aden so they’re more like co-starters and CBM has played way more minutes than CMO lately. So if you’re comparing starters I think you have to look at Tre and CBM because they’re playing starter roles. 

I guess in my original original post, I did just say guards and didn’t specify starters or bench, so I’ll give you that. I would still think they have better guards overall, just based sheerly on the fact that they have the best guard out of all, and we both have about the same amount of good guards. That’s also with me not counting CMo or CBM as a guard btw. 
 

36 minutes ago, arktiger1975 said:

I've seen other videos from this year that show them getting beaten off the bounce a lot. Their defensive numbers definitely stink.

Yeah I don’t mean Bama has some stellar defense, I mean Griffin specifically. He is the same type of guard A&M employed that will stay in your pocket and make the game hell for you if you struggle with physicality, which Aden did in that matchup. 
 

btw, while you can watch tape and see this isn’t a good defense - they have arguably the best offense in the sport and have played a top 10 schedule overall. You combine their offensive pace with that difficulty and it’s easy to see why the numbers wouldn’t be great 

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2 minutes ago, Dual-Threat Rigby said:

I guess in my original original post, I did just say guards and didn’t specify starters or bench, so I’ll give you that. I would still think they have better guards overall, just based sheerly on the fact that they have the best guard out of all, and we both have about the same amount of good guards. That’s also with me not counting CMo or CBM as a guard btw. 
 

Yeah I don’t mean Bama has some stellar defense, I mean Griffin specifically. He is the same type of guard A&M employed that will stay in your pocket and make the game hell for you if you struggle with physicality, which Aden did in that matchup. 
 

btw, while you can watch tape and see this isn’t a good defense - they have arguably the best offense in the sport and have played a top 10 schedule overall. You combine their offensive pace with that difficulty and it’s easy to see why the numbers wouldn’t be great 

I think they are actually better than they were last year offensively. But they were much, much better defensively last year.

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One of the other posters replied to my post with the paragraph below:

"First, Jaylin Williams has not transformed into a superstar who can carry us to a final four. Jaylin is a nice player who is playing well and has a good tool box. He gives us what we need at the four, but he will not be the deciding factor about how far we go in the post season or if we challenge for the SEC title. This season is is averaging about 1 more point per game than last season, and about 2 more points than his sophomore season. His rebounds, assists, and blocks are less than 1 per game different as well. Since the App. St. game he has had 4 20+ point bursts, but he has also failed to reach double digits twice. On top of all that, his shot attempts are actually down this season from last season and his sophomore season (I'm excluding his stats from 2022 as he was in a role coming off the bench behind Jabari)."

To clarify a little, I wasn't saying he is a superstar or anything like that, but to say that he has not transformed his role since Auburn's last loss is not giving credit where credit is due.  I think he WAS the missing piece if we are talking about this team's ceiling and whether they can reach it, and it's not a missing piece anymore because he has stepped-up into the role that I think Pearl has been trying to put him in.  I calculated some comparisons after the Texas A&M game to see what the biggest changes have been for him and it's pretty telling really.  From Baylor to App State, Williams averaged 7 points a game.  From the Indiana game thru T A&M he has averaged 16 points a game.  That is more than double, a significant change in anyone's estimation.  Using those same start and endpoints, his assists went from 1 to 2.6 per game, his turnovers per game stayed at 1, his 3 point shooting percentage went from 17% ALL the way up to 46%, and his overall shooting percentage went from 49% up to 65%.  Those are really spectacular improvements, we aren't talking about a couple good games, we are talking about the averages from his first 7 games to the averages of the last 8 ( I did these calculations prior to the last two games). I don't think the last couple games, in which he averaged 15 pts and has missed a total of 0 field goals out of 9 shots, and 2 free throws out of 10 does anything but further support how big of a change it has been for him.  As everyone is likely aware, the last game he was perfect from the field and from the FT line which is extremely hard to do.  I think the bottom line is that he is being the guy that the team needs him to be to have the most success possible, and it's been a long time coming! 

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Wow, what a spectacular performance from this impressive group of Auburn men.  This Auburn basketball team is a sight to behold when they are rocking and rolling, and you just know that the rest of the teams in league are not looking forward to playing them.  This Auburn team already looks like what I had hoped they would by the end of the season going into the SEC tourney, and we are just 5 games into the SEC season.  They are playing together with purpose, and you can tell that everyone on the court is 100% bought-in to what Bruce is doing with them.  This 11 game win streak is not just impressive because they have won 11 games in a row, it's HOW they have won these 11 games that is remarkable.  They have imposed their will on the other team in each of these wins, not an easy thing to do for any team to do no matter how much talent you have.  If offense is not coming easy to them, they don't push it harder and force up tough shots, instead, they turn it up all the way when on defense, which almost always generates some easy transition buckets and open looks from the perimeter on offense.  If Auburn is getting beat on defense by a few set plays being run over and over, or if a couple of the opposing players are winning their match-ups and starting to score a bunch of points, Auburn can slow down their own offense and the game by attacking from the half-court.  This gives them more time to get back and get set on defense, while also reducing or eliminating any easy transition baskets the opponent is getting.  The Auburn coaches have also made great in-game adjustments to run any hot shooters for the opponent into defensive help, over and over again, to wear them down physically and make sure that any shot they take is contested.  This Auburn team has a FULL array of tools available to them to theoretically handle any situation they may run into, the players execute the game plan they are given really well, and they have the players to play any style of basketball they may need to play to beat any opponent. 

      We all know that basketball can be, and frequently is, a game of extremes.  A team can get hot and win a game by 25 points against a top 10 team and then the next week lose by 10 on the road to some unranked team, and it would not be huge surprise to most fans.  All it usually takes for this to happen is for maybe the top two scorers on the team to have a bad shooting night at the same time, and/or a few guys not playing with focus and turning the ball over too much, and you can drop a game against a determined opponent in the blink of an eye.  This Auburn team MIGHT very well be built in a way that all but eliminates that possibility.  This is because Auburn legitimately has 2 complete teams of starters on ONE team, and they are all playing together and unselfishly for both each other and the name across the front of their jerseys, instead of the name on the back.  If you are an opponent how do you game-plan for Auburn?  Even if by some miracle your team is able to stop Auburn in all the ways they can play offense and score points, how do you field a team that can run full speed with Auburn AND handle the relentless defensive pressure they apply for the full 40 mins of the game?  We have seen this play out quite a few times now, where the opponent hangs in there and keeps the score close until the last 4 or 5 minutes of the 1st half.  By that time the opponent's starters are usually a little winded from being run ragged by Auburn's starting line-up number 2, and then Auburn subs-in starting line-up number 1, which is fully-rested and ready to play at full-speed on both ends of the court.  That disparity usually results in an Auburn run before halftime to take a nice lead and demoralize the opponent at the same time, which just had to watch ALL of the effort they expended to keep the score close in the previous 15 to 17 minutes get erased like it never happened in what probably feels like a matter of seconds to them.  They go into the locker room with the knowledge that despite playing as hard as they could, they were still out-worked and out-played and now have the added pressure of a points deficit to erase in addition to just winning the last 20 minutes of the game!  

     I'm not saying that Auburn is unbeatable by any means, like I mentioned previously, basketball games can swing one way or the other for a myriad of reasons. Good teams can lose to bad teams if the better team is having a terrible game while everything seemingly comes together for the bad team when it counts.  It happens all the time, just about every single weekend there are big upsets.  We all know that it is just part of the game these days with the level of parity we are seeing not only within conferences, but across conferences in many cases.  With that said, I don't know if I have seen another team that is better equipped to handle these challenges than Auburn, or more precisely, the TWO complete teams of starting-caliber players that Auburn puts on the court each game.  In my opinion, it is undeniably the closest thing to 2 teams against 1 that we will likely ever see.  

P.S.  Remember all the times you felt like Auburn had to beat two teams in certain games to win, the opposing team AND the team of refs?  Well, now it's an even 2 vs. 2 when that happens to Auburn, and I will always like our chances in that situation!  On the flip side, in games where the refs are making calls that all seem to go Auburn's way, our opponent can now complain and make a convincing case that they had to beat 3 teams! 

I am anxious to see what you guys think of the team at this point, and where they are right now in regards to their development and ceiling.  I also would like to hear opinions on how they compare to UK and UT.  I know there are other teams that can beat us if everything falls into place for them, but it seems that Auburn and those two teams are well-ahead of everyone else at this moment in time.  UK getting that Serbian guy they call "Z" eligible is going to be a big problem for anyone they play if he continues to play like he did yesterday and their team chemistry remains great (which was incredible for his first collegiate game)  UT will also be a big problem to solve if their top two scorers continue to dominate and even improve.  

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On 1/19/2024 at 10:49 PM, arktiger1975 said:

I think they are actually better than they were last year offensively. But they were much, much better defensively last year.

Bama does not concern me a much as UT and KY.  UT's new star, Dalton Knecht, is an absolute stud.  KY has that new 7'2" player, Ivisic, who looks to be exceptionally gifted for a big.  We are going to need a heluva defensive plan to beat those 2 teams. AU has all the tools to beat Bammer but it won't be easy, plus there's always the officiating wild card that tends to show up in Tuscaloosa.

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5 hours ago, BHDAU1 said:

Wow, what a spectacular performance from this impressive group of Auburn men.  This Auburn basketball team is a sight to behold when they are rocking and rolling, and you just know that the rest of the teams in league are not looking forward to playing them.  This Auburn team already looks like what I had hoped they would by the end of the season going into the SEC tourney, and we are just 5 games into the SEC season.  They are playing together with purpose, and you can tell that everyone on the court is 100% bought-in to what Bruce is doing with them.  This 9 game win streak is not just impressive because they have won 9 games in a row, it's HOW they have won these 9 games that is remarkable.  They have imposed their will on the other team in each of these wins, not an easy thing to do for any team to do no matter how much talent you have.  If offense is not coming easy to them, they don't push it harder and force up tough shots, instead, they turn it up all the way when on defense, which almost always generates some easy transition buckets and open looks from the perimeter on offense.  If Auburn is getting beat on defense by a few set plays being run over and over, or if a couple of the opposing players are winning their match-ups and starting to score a bunch of points, Auburn can slow down their own offense and the game by attacking from the half-court.  This gives them more time to get back and get set on defense, while also reducing or eliminating any easy transition baskets the opponent is getting.  The Auburn coaches have also made great in-game adjustments to run any hot shooters for the opponent into defensive help, over and over again, to wear them down physically and make sure that any shot they take is contested.  This Auburn team has a FULL array of tools available to them to theoretically handle any situation they may run into, the players execute the game plan they are given really well, and they have the players to play any style of basketball they may need to play to beat any opponent. 

      We all know that basketball can be, and frequently is, a game of extremes.  A team can get hot and win a game by 25 points against a top 10 team and then the next week lose by 10 on the road to some unranked team, and it would not be huge surprise to most fans.  All it usually takes for this to happen is for maybe the top two scorers on the team to have a bad shooting night at the same time, and/or a few guys not playing with focus and turning the ball over too much, and you can drop a game against a determined opponent in the blink of an eye.  This Auburn team MIGHT very well be built in a way that all but eliminates that possibility.  This is because Auburn legitimately has 2 complete teams of starters on ONE team, and they are all playing together and unselfishly for both each other and the name across the front of their jerseys, instead of the name on the back.  If you are an opponent how do you game-plan for Auburn?  Even if by some miracle your team is able to stop Auburn in all the ways they can play offense and score points, how do you field a team that can run full speed with Auburn AND handle the relentless defensive pressure they apply for the full 40 mins of the game?  We have seen this play out quite a few times now, where the opponent hangs in there and keeps the score close until the last 4 or 5 minutes of the 1st half.  By that time the opponent's starters are usually a little winded from being run ragged by Auburn's starting line-up number 2, and then Auburn subs-in starting line-up number 1, which is fully-rested and ready to play at full-speed on both ends of the court.  That disparity usually results in an Auburn run before halftime to take a nice lead and demoralize the opponent at the same time, which just had to watch ALL of the effort they expended to keep the score close in the previous 15 to 17 minutes get erased like it never happened in what probably feels like a matter of seconds to them.  They go into the locker room with the knowledge that despite playing as hard as they could, they were still out-worked and out-played and now have the added pressure of a points deficit to erase in addition to just winning the last 20 minutes of the game!  

     I'm not saying that Auburn is unbeatable by any means, like I mentioned previously, basketball games can swing one way or the other for a myriad of reasons. Good teams can lose to bad teams if the better team is having a terrible game while everything seemingly comes together for the bad team when it counts.  It happens all the time, just about every single weekend there are big upsets.  We all know that it is just part of the game these days with the level of parity we are seeing not only within conferences, but across conferences in many cases.  With that said, I don't know if I have seen another team that is better equipped to handle these challenges than Auburn, or more precisely, the TWO complete teams of starting-caliber players that Auburn puts on the court each game.  In my opinion, it is undeniably the closest thing to 2 teams against 1 that we will likely ever see.  

P.S.  Remember all the times you felt like Auburn had to beat two teams in certain games to win, the opposing team AND the team of refs?  Well, now it's an even 2 vs. 2 when that happens to Auburn, and I will always like our chances in that situation!  On the flip side, in games where the refs are making calls that all seem to go Auburn's way, our opponent can now complain and make a convincing case that they had to beat 3 teams! 

I am anxious to see what you guys think of the team at this point, and where they are right now in regards to their development and ceiling.  I also would like to hear opinions on how they compare to UK and UT.  I know there are other teams that can beat us if everything falls into place for them, but it seems that Auburn and those two teams are well-ahead of everyone else at this moment in time.  UK getting that Serbian guy they call "Z" eligible is going to be a big problem for anyone they play if he continues to play like he did yesterday and their team chemistry remains great (which was incredible for his first collegiate game)  UT will also be a big problem to solve if their top two scorers continue to dominate and even improve.  

Cliff Notes version, please.  

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