Just how good is LSU's defense?

[Duder 238]

This will be the matchup for the ages. It is winner take all. Just how it is meant to be. All is right in the balance of the SEC West. We both have our season on the line and are both playing our toughest opponent, thus far. Our key will be to stop Cam, play clean sound football, limit the TO's, and win the battle in the trenches. May the best TIGERS win.

Welcome to the board.

How do you see you guys matching up against Cam? Do you think they will at some point make a mistake and try to sell out against him, which would open up the passing game?

Line play is going to be huge. Our o-line has looked better recently but LSU always has big, nasty linemen.

Winning the battle in the trenches is the key. Our D line has to be able to close the lanes and get a push, forcing Cam to go to the outside. If our D line does this, allowing our linebackers the freedom to close down the outside run, also not taking the bait when Cam looks like he is going to throw, they should be able to keep him contained. Our secondary is going to have to keep you receivers in check to allow our linebackers that freedom. We do this and we should be able to contain Cam and keep him from busting anything big on us. He will have some success, but if we keep him in check, only allowing 3-5 yd/carry, that will be enough to shut down a huge portion of your attack.

While the plan is good in theory, it has been tested. I will give you the fact that it hasn't been tested by a defense that appears to be as stout as LSU. Arkansas did everything they could come up with to plug the running lanes, Cam has the ability to find the slightest crease and he's shifty enough that he essentially forces people out of position. It isn't as much a requirement for talent across the front to track Cam down as it is the need for discipline. They have to be able to stay home when he's trying to create room and through seven games no one has been able to do that. South Carolina has a very impressive defense, statistically anyway, and we were able to play our type of game against them. Shortly there after that same South Carolina team shut down a fantastic running attack when they faced Alabama. I look at that game as a barometer for what our offense can do against a great defense. Our offense has been closer to being tested than your defense is the point.

It will be an interesting match-up to watch. If LSU's defense is as good as advertisted it will be a clash of the titans, so to speak. While I certainly respect the talent that LSU brings to the table, viewing the world through the orange and blue glasses and all, I take our offensive talent. There is a lot to defend, especially if Dyer is healthy before Saturday. If he is healthy that gives us a legitimate running threat. Fannin has been pretty good the last two weeks so now teams can't assume we're going to pass just because he's in the game. McCalebb hasn't been untouchable this year but he is as fast as anyone in the country if he finds a crease. They give us enough of a running game to keep the D honest. With Cam the problems really start when he gets forced out of the pocket because it inevitably pulls defenses out of position. On his solo play action, he's too talented to not respect the run, which tends to get at least one receiver open. If you stay back in coverage, he will hurt you.

It will be an interesting match to watch, that's for sure!

[COramprat 0]

I don't think we stop Newton...just limit his potential for damage. We haven't been prone to the big play this season so if our "D" keeps him in front of them he will have to eventually find another play maker. We have faced some pretty good runners in games this season. Noel Devine had a pretty poor outing against us. He may have been a little gimpy after a hit in the 1st quarter of that game but we definitely had his number.

Look for some hidden/delayed blitzes to try force some poor decisions. We tend to force opponents into mistakes whether it be turnovers or errant passes. He will break out a few times on the run but I think if we limit the big runs we can be successful.

Out offense is still a work in progress. If we have to throw the ball look for Jarrett Lee to play most of the game. Jordan Jefferson will likely start and then run a series or two. When we get inside the 10 yard line he may return then also.

[lsu_dane 0]

For those of you wondering how LSU's QBs stack up over the last 3 games (since we went dual QB - to my and most tigers despise that it's still going on) here's some stats for you:

With Jordan Jefferson leading the offense in the past 3 games:

3 FG, 1 TD, 6 Punts, 4 Turnovers. 1 drive where JJ's pass was caught and fumbled, didn't count.

With Jarrett Lee leading the offense in the past 3 games:

1 FG, 9 TD, 5 Punts, 1 Turnover. 2 FG attempt that was missed that JLee had QB'd the drive, didn't count.

In our last game Lee lead LSU on 7 drives. 4 were for TD's, 1 was for a FG, 1 was a missed FG, and 2 were punts (1 of those punts were due to a questionable no call and call by the refs negating two very large plays).

If you add up Lee's scoring drives (and the two missed FG's that Lee put in scoring position) out of 16 series he's lead his team to score 12 times. Basically leading them to a score over 75% of time. Out of every scoring drive, 75% it's a TD. Out of the total amount of drives, over 56% of the time he leads them to a TD.

Miles insistence on splitting the drives between our two QB's is what has made our offense look worse than it really is. Make no mistake about it, if Lee is in the game LSU can move the ball.

Auburn will no doubt be the hardest team we have faced this year on offense and will be our biggest game. I have the utmost respect for your program and think the game will be VERY entertaining to watch.

The key for LSU's victory will be to not beat ourselves. Penalties and turnovers are the only reason our games have been as close as they've been. You guys have a beast at QB but our entire defense is loaded. It goes much deeper than Patrick Peterson. Drake Nevis completely blows up the offensive line, we have a MLB in Sheppard who has played lights out all season, and we have a freshman safety named Tyrann Mathieu who has been a complete TERROR on offenses all season.

To be honest, if I were Auburn Peterson would only be the 3rd highest person I'd be afraid of on the defense. Mathieu and Nevis are both having unbelievable years in messing up offenses. And I'm not even mentioning the guy on our team with the most interceptions (Morris Claiborne) or a DB (Ryan Baker) who sits right behind Nevis for sacks AND tackles for loss.

This will be a war guys and I can't wait. IF my chips were down, and I HAD to make a pick to safe a life - I'd go LSU. I'm not saying LSU WILL win, but I like their chances. As we all know, sometimes CFB and especially SEC games go in weird directions we wouldn't expect.

[StatTiger 3,188]

Good luck trying to stop Cam Newton

If I was LSU's D. coordinator I wouldn't sleep till I found a suitable gameplan. Then I would throw that out the window since I realized it wouldn't work and come up with another one.

Anyways good luck and may the best Tigers win (like someone said earlier)

I think the plan will be to give Cameron the outside running lanes, utilizing the sideline as an extra defender. The majority of Newton's big runs have come between the tackles. I think LSU will give him the outside to lesson the damage. Schemes are great and Arkansas actually was in position to control Cameron but you still have to tackle him to actually stop him.

[hqsi99 103]

For those of you wondering how LSU's QBs stack up over the last 3 games (since we went dual QB - to my and most tigers despise that it's still going on) here's some stats for you:

With Jordan Jefferson leading the offense in the past 3 games:

3 FG, 1 TD, 6 Punts, 4 Turnovers. 1 drive where JJ's pass was caught and fumbled, didn't count.

With Jarrett Lee leading the offense in the past 3 games:

1 FG, 9 TD, 5 Punts, 1 Turnover. 2 FG attempt that was missed that JLee had QB'd the drive, didn't count.

In our last game Lee lead LSU on 7 drives. 4 were for TD's, 1 was for a FG, 1 was a missed FG, and 2 were punts (1 of those punts were due to a questionable no call and call by the refs negating two very large plays).

If you add up Lee's scoring drives (and the two missed FG's that Lee put in scoring position) out of 16 series he's lead his team to score 12 times. Basically leading them to a score over 75% of time. Out of every scoring drive, 75% it's a TD. Out of the total amount of drives, over 56% of the time he leads them to a TD.

Miles insistence on splitting the drives between our two QB's is what has made our offense look worse than it really is. Make no mistake about it, if Lee is in the game LSU can move the ball.

Auburn will no doubt be the hardest team we have faced this year on offense and will be our biggest game. I have the utmost respect for your program and think the game will be VERY entertaining to watch.

The key for LSU's victory will be to not beat ourselves. Penalties and turnovers are the only reason our games have been as close as they've been. You guys have a beast at QB but our entire defense is loaded. It goes much deeper than Patrick Peterson. Drake Nevis completely blows up the offensive line, we have a MLB in Sheppard who has played lights out all season, and we have a freshman safety named Tyrann Mathieu who has been a complete TERROR on offenses all season.

To be honest, if I were Auburn Peterson would only be the 3rd highest person I'd be afraid of on the defense. Mathieu and Nevis are both having unbelievable years in messing up offenses. And I'm not even mentioning the guy on our team with the most interceptions (Morris Claiborne) or a DB (Ryan Baker) who sits right behind Nevis for sacks AND tackles for loss.

This will be a war guys and I can't wait. IF my chips were down, and I HAD to make a pick to safe a life - I'd go LSU. I'm not saying LSU WILL win, but I like their chances. As we all know, sometimes CFB and especially SEC games go in weird directions we wouldn't expect.

I hadn't looked at the actual numbers, but I assume what you have posted is accurate and based on it I can't understand why Jefferson is starting over Lee. I'm an Auburn fan, but if I were an LSU fan I would be pretty pissed looking at those numbers and watching Jefferson start the game.

[Stevescookin 0]

This will be the matchup for the ages. It is winner take all. Just how it is meant to be. All is right in the balance of the SEC West. We both have our season on the line and are both playing our toughest opponent, thus far. Our key will be to stop Cam, play clean sound football, limit the TO's, and win the battle in the trenches. May the best TIGERS win.

Welcome to the board.

How do you see you guys matching up against Cam? Do you think they will at some point make a mistake and try to sell out against him, which would open up the passing game?

Line play is going to be huge. Our o-line has looked better recently but LSU always has big, nasty linemen.

Cam is going to have a hard time running up the middle like he did last week....Drake Nevis is there. He'll have to go outside...in which case, I hope he forgets to tie his shoes.

[lsu_dane 0]

I hadn't looked at the actual numbers, but I assume what you have posted is accurate and based on it I can't understand why Jefferson is starting over Lee. I'm an Auburn fan, but if I were an LSU fan I would be pretty pissed looking at those numbers and watching Jefferson start the game.

Adds a little perspective as to why LSU fans were booing even though we were up last Saturday, huh?

Jefferson actually got 5 series last game, he had 3 - 3 and outs, 1 fumble, and a FG.

His first two series (to start the game) was a 3 and out, and then a fumble inside of LSU's 5 yard line. Jarrett Lee comes in for the next two series, drives LSU down for 2 TD's, and then is taken out again for Jefferson to get his turn . . .which was a 3 and out.

Miles has not handled our QB situation well at all; However the writing is on the wall and I'm pretty sure Miles will be making the transition to Lee this week.

At least, God I hope so.

[ziggyg 2]

I hadn't looked at the actual numbers, but I assume what you have posted is accurate and based on it I can't understand why Jefferson is starting over Lee. I'm an Auburn fan, but if I were an LSU fan I would be pretty pissed looking at those numbers and watching Jefferson start the game.

Adds a little perspective as to why LSU fans were booing even though we were up last Saturday, huh?

Jefferson actually got 5 series last game, he had 3 - 3 and outs, 1 fumble, and a FG.

His first two series (to start the game) was a 3 and out, and then a fumble inside of LSU's 5 yard line. Jarrett Lee comes in for the next two series, drives LSU down for 2 TD's, and then is taken out again for Jefferson to get his turn . . .which was a 3 and out.

Miles has not handled our QB situation well at all; However the writing is on the wall and I'm pretty sure Miles will be making the transition to Lee this week.

At least, God I hope so.

Being Au fans we know the struggles of changing qbs and having controversy with them. Look no further back than to '08 with us having Chris todd and Kodi burns.

[TigerfanKM 37]

Sta, let's not forget who LSU has played this year: NC, Vandy, WV, Tenn, Florida, and McNeese St. The best offense of these, Florida, scored 29 on LSU but could only score 7 against Miss St., in the swamp!! In my opinion, their #1 D in the SEC rank may be just a bit deceiving based on who they have played. Auburn will be by far the best offensive team they have faced all year!!

War Eagle!!

[lsu_dane 0]

Sta, let's not forget who LSU has played this year: NC, Vandy, WV, Tenn, Florida, and McNeese St. The best offense of these, Florida, scored 29 on LSU but could only score 7 against Miss St., in the swamp!! In my opinion, their #1 D in the SEC rank may be just a bit deceiving based on who they have played. Auburn will be by far the best offensive team they have faced all year!!

War Eagle!!

LSU also gave Florida 21 points in the game off of turnovers. Florida literally had 1 good drive in the game for a TD.

The ending also broke Florida's will. Miss St. played a deflated Florida team that was coming off of two HUGE games.

TBH, I expect Auburn to do the same. Come out flat after a huge emotional game against Ark. The person who scheduled LSU's games this year did an awesome job, we came out flat after the Florida game too.

[Strychnine 1,804]

TBH, I expect Auburn to do the same. Come out flat after a huge emotional game against Ark. The person who scheduled LSU's games this year did an awesome job, we came out flat after the Florida game too.

That's a good point, and something I've actually thought about before now. I expected us to come out flat after Clemson, and then after South Carolina, and then after Kentucky. I just expected it after years of Tuberville teams being good for dropping a game or two that they shouldn't on a seemingly annual basis. This squad seems to have some focus. I think they're driven and have a sense of purpose. Whether they'll reach that or not requires the magic 8 ball, but I'm pretty convinced that it won't be for lack of effort if not.

[GaTigerFan 0]

I don't see Auburn coming out flat at all. Just the opposite. They'll be sky high for LSU.

[HarpyTrain 1]

LSU comes into this game with a highly touted defense, particularly against the run; CNNSI's stats page has LSU listed as the 5th best team in the nation against the run. That coupled with StatTiger's analysis appear to be a cause for concern for Auburn. However, looking at the numbers a little more closely reveals a slightly different story. While Statiger's #'s seem to favor LSU in winning this game, there are some other stats to consider that should help Auburn fans feel pretty good about this game; notably the respective rankings in terms of rushing of those teams LSU has played as well as the teams South Carolina has played. We'll go with LSU first:

Team - rush yds against LSU - national rushing ranking (per ESPN)

UNC - 24 - 93rd

Vandy - 65 - 70th

Miss St - 152 - 16th

WV - 58- 74th

Tenn - 96 - 98th

Fl - 89- 54th

McNeese - 101 - Division I-AA

Southern Miss - 67 - 24th

UGA - 61 - 47th

Furman - 51 - D I-AA

Auburn - 334 - 4th

bama - 36 - 29th

KY - 52 - 41st

Auburn ranks as the 4th best rushing team according to ESPN's stats. And looking at the two respective teams, I would say that the cocks have played better running teams than LSU has and yet contained them - except when they played us. Like Stat mentioned earlier, their run D is 14th in the country allowing right at 100 yds/game. Take out the anomaly that was our bada** offense, USC is only allowing 53.4 yds/game on the ground against some decent rushing attacks - far and away the best in the nation. Based on the offensive output by Miss St (a game MSU gave away with INT's) against LSU, I think its safe to say that LSU does not look quite as stout as their rankings show. It looks to me like South Carolina is the better D against the run. Based on the fact that we plowed through South Carolina and that MSU moved the ball well against LSU, I think its safe to say that we are going to keep "doing what we do"

[Stevescookin 0]

You have to attribute that to good coaching. I remember when you'all hired Chizyk (sp?). There were snickers because of his previous won loss record...but there's no laughter now. The dude can coach AND recruit. Auburn surprised me this year.

[ShocksMyBrain 9,379]

Thanks to Stat and Harpy I'd never look past the rankings. The raw stats and break downs really helps to put things into perspective.

[lsu_dane 0]

LSU comes into this game with a highly touted defense, particularly against the run; CNNSI's stats page has LSU listed as the 5th best team in the nation against the run. That coupled with StatTiger's analysis appear to be a cause for concern for Auburn. However, looking at the numbers a little more closely reveals a slightly different story. While Statiger's #'s seem to favor LSU in winning this game, there are some other stats to consider that should help Auburn fans feel pretty good about this game; notably the respective rankings in terms of rushing of those teams LSU has played as well as the teams South Carolina has played. We'll go with LSU first:

Team - rush yds against LSU - national rushing ranking (per ESPN)

UNC - 24 - 93rd

Vandy - 65 - 70th

Miss St - 152 - 16th

WV - 58- 74th

Tenn - 96 - 98th

Fl - 89- 54th

McNeese - 101 - Division I-AA

Southern Miss - 67 - 24th

UGA - 61 - 47th

Furman - 51 - D I-AA

Auburn - 334 - 4th

bama - 36 - 29th

KY - 52 - 41st

Auburn ranks as the 4th best rushing team according to ESPN's stats. And looking at the two respective teams, I would say that the cocks have played better running teams than LSU has and yet contained them - except when they played us. Like Stat mentioned earlier, their run D is 14th in the country allowing right at 100 yds/game. Take out the anomaly that was our bada** offense, USC is only allowing 53.4 yds/game on the ground against some decent rushing attacks - far and away the best in the nation. Based on the offensive output by Miss St (a game MSU gave away with INT's) against LSU, I think its safe to say that LSU does not look quite as stout as their rankings show. It looks to me like South Carolina is the better D against the run. Based on the fact that we plowed through South Carolina and that MSU moved the ball well against LSU, I think its safe to say that we are going to keep "doing what we do"

Not to blow a hole in your theory but couldn't the argument be made that the teams LSU already played have such weaker rushing stats BECAUSE they played LSU?

[LSUfaninMiss 0]

I know Miles is called the Mad Hatter because he's crazy, but I don't think he's stupid enough to play Jefferson against us very much, if at all. If this Auburn team loses, it will be because we gave up a bunch of points to the passing game. Lee will have to win it for LSU.

This comes from a LSU fan, Miles is pretty stupid sometimes, LOL

He will probably start Jefferson, who knows, I am not even gonna pay attention to what he does. He makes me so mad sometimes.

[RunInRed 16,498]

Does any one really think LSU will hold us to less than 330yds total offense? I don't.

[StatTiger 3,188]

Does any one really think LSU will hold us to less than 330yds total offense? I don't.

Probably not but MSU did hold AU to 348-yards so it's not like it would be impossible. It all depends on the flow of the game and how well LSU is defended. Consider the possibility of Auburn having only 9 offensive series for the game because LSU is bleeding the clock with several lengthy drives. During those 9 series Auburn has...

4 drives that net 60-yards each (240-yards)

3 drives that go "3 & out" (27-yards)

2 drives that average 35-yards each, 1 ending on a turnover (70-yards)

That would be 337-yards in total offense. The goal is to average about 30-yards per possession so that would be 37.4 yards per possession, which would actually be a productive game considering the low number of possessions.

[aubiematt 0]

Does any one really think LSU will hold us to less than 330yds total offense? I don't.

They held us to under 200 last year. Looking back at the footage from last year, I say It's possible. We pretty much have the same offensive line personnel, and they were not able to hold the LSU defense for long. On a positive side, we did have more rushing yards than passing yards. I would look for special teams put us in position to score for this one.

[StatTiger 3,188]

Sta, let's not forget who LSU has played this year: NC, Vandy, WV, Tenn, Florida, and McNeese St. The best offense of these, Florida, scored 29 on LSU but could only score 7 against Miss St., in the swamp!! In my opinion, their #1 D in the SEC rank may be just a bit deceiving based on who they have played. Auburn will be by far the best offensive team they have faced all year!!

War Eagle!!

I did not forget. In fact, I outlined that in my initial post. Again, it's not about what LSU has allowed but the percentage of yardage they have held their opponent below their normal average. If we are going to be critical of their level of competition, the same can be said about the defensive teams Auburn has faced and their average ranking of 69th in run-defense. That's why I look past Auburn's great average in rushing and look how much they are exceeding what their opponent normally allows in rushing. Florida had about 250-yards in total offense. 2 of their TD's came from a short field (16-yards and 17-yards) after a LSU turnover. The third TD came on a kick-return. On the night, UF had one long sustained drive against LSU.

[Stevescookin 0]

Anything can happen...we could hold you guys to less than 200 yards...Cam could get 250 yards by himself. It depends on penalties, big plays, a few tackles made or missed.

Gotta wait till after the game. Personally, I don't know what to expect. I don't even think we can compare what the same Auburn personnel did against LSU's Defense last year because last year was the first year Chavis was instituting his defense plus we have a bunch of new starters this year.

Keep your eyes on #14, by the way, Tyrann Matthieu....he's actually better than Peterson was as a freshman.

Only thing I know is it's going to be a great game of SEC football...win or lose !!

[RunInRed 16,498]

Stat - Is there a total offensive yardage amount that "equals victory"? i.e., When AU scores over 30 their record is...

[bengaltiger 0]

Welcome to the board. I'm guessing you mean that Lee scores more than Jefferson??

Thanks. Glad to rediscover the place in its new format. Had posted sparingly long ago and did not realize the site had new look/name.

When Lee starts drives, good things typically happens. When Jefferson starts drives, bad things happen. For example, all TD's last week were a result of drives started by Lee.

Thanks for the invite to talk about the game civilly, I can not wait for Saturday it's going to be a GREAT game!! Let me give you Guys some interesting stats on LSU's QB's.....

Jefferson ...53-101-7int's 53% comp, 90.8% efficiency He started 65 possesions this year for the offense

10 TD's

7 int's

12 FG's

1533 total yards of offense(106points) averaging 24 yards per possesion.

Lee......27-36-1...75% completion, 164.8% efficiency

10 td's

1 FG

only 6 punts

743 yards of offense(73 points) averaging 43 yards per possesion

Now Auburn fans you tell me WHO should be taking the majority of the offensive possesions?? This is what has been driving tiger fans crazy this year! Anyway good luck to you...and cant wait to meet Saturday!!

[Strychnine 1,804]

Anything can happen...we could hold you guys to less than 200 yards...Cam could get 250 yards by himself. It depends on penalties, big plays, a few tackles made or missed.

Gotta wait till after the game. Personally, I don't know what to expect. I don't even think we can compare what the same Auburn personnel did against LSU's Defense last year because last year was the first year Chavis was instituting his defense plus we have a bunch of new starters this year.

You are correct, in that the offense cannot really be compared to last years'. What Cam adds is an extremely good 3rd dimension to an offense that wouldn't be too bad with another QB back there. I think the thing that makes the most difference, that cannot be quantified or replaced, is his character and leadership instead of his ridiculous athletic ability. Imagine the voice of Madden for a minute: "Here's a guy that just always finds a way to make plays when they need them the most." Cam IS our offense, but not in the way most people mean when they say that.