Just how good is LSU's defense?

[StatTiger 3,188]

Scoring averages and margins:

The scoring averages and margins of both teams against their major opponents, indicates a LSU victory. Auburn has averaged 36 points per game, while allowing 28 points against their 5 BCS opponents. LSU has averaged 26 points, while allowing 15 against their 6 BCS opponents. Auburn has scored 39.8 percent more than what their opponent has allowed, while holding their opponent to 10.1 percent below their scoring average. LSU has scored 23.8 percent more than their opponent has allowed but has led their opponent to 42.4 percent below their scoring average.

Taking, Auburn’s average score vs. LSU’s scoring margins and LSU wins, 35-21. Taking the average score of LSU vs. Auburn’s scoring margins and LSU wins, 23-21. Average the two scores, and LSU wins, 29-21.

How good is LSU’s defense?

They are …

holding their opponent to 42.4 percent below their scoring average.

holding their opponent to 47.6 percent below their rushing average.

holding their opponent to 30.0 percent below their total yardage.

If this holds true this Saturday, Auburn will have...

21 points

148-yards rushing

336 total yards

The 6 BCS opponents LSU has faced this season are currently averaging 351-yards and 26 PPG, so Auburn will clearly be the most difficult offensive opponent they have face this season. The average ranking of their BCS opponents in terms of total-offense is 79th nationally. Mississippi State is the highest ranked offense they faced this season, currently ranked 55th in total offense.

Which quarterback will take the majority of snaps against Auburn?

Jordan Jefferson has started every game but Jarrett Lee has seen extensive action the last 3 weeks. Lee has clearly been the more accurate passer and I have a feeling Lee will play extensively this week in an attempt to be more balanced on offense. For the season, Jefferson has a passer rating of 89.9 on third down and Lee has a rating of 126.8, slightly lower than Ryan Mallet on third down.

Impact Plays:

Through 7 games, LSU has 42 impact plays on offense (15-yards or more) and have allowed 30 on defense. Auburn’s offense has compiled 71 impact plays on offense, while allowing 41 on defense. Overall, that gives Auburn a slight edge with a 1.7 ratio in impact plays to LSU’s 1.4 ratio.

This might be the game, where Cameron Newton will be called upon to make his impact plays in the passing game. LSU will certainly be the most difficult run-defense Auburn has faced and of the 30 impact plays allowed by the LSU defense, 22 have come via the pass and 8 have come on the ground. There should be no doubt, LSU will scheme and sell out to limit Newton's running lanes and they will likely force the Auburn offense to beat them, throwing the football.

The average ranking of Auburn’s opponent when it comes to run-defense is 64th nationally, allowing 153.7 YPG. South Carolina has been the highest ranked run-defense Auburn has faced (14th), allowing 100-yards per game. For the season, Auburn is averaging 45.8 percent more yards rushing than what their opponent allows. Taking LSU’s current yardage allowed per game on the ground (84-yards) vs. Auburn’s rushing margin; Auburn is projected to rush for 122-yards.

This week will be a major challenge for Gus Malzahn as LSU under John Chavis is the only defense to hold a Gus Malzahn offense to under 200-yards (193-yards). Malzahn and the 2010 Auburn offense got their revenge against Kentucky and Arkansas but can they dial it up again against an improved LSU defense?

[Mikey 16,671]

I know Miles is called the Mad Hatter because he's crazy, but I don't think he's stupid enough to play Jefferson against us very much, if at all. If this Auburn team loses, it will be because we gave up a bunch of points to the passing game. Lee will have to win it for LSU.

[WarEagle007 1]

Wow, great insight Stat. Thanks for putting the matchup into perspective. Hope our boys are prepared!

[Ronin 2]

I know Miles is called the Mad Hatter because he's crazy, but I don't think he's stupid enough to play Jefferson against us very much, if at all. If this Auburn team loses, it will be because we gave up a bunch of points to the passing game. Lee will have to win it for LSU.

OTOH, he could leave Jefferson in and let him throw the ball until we stop him. This could be a confidence building game for Jefferson.

[BamaGrad03 0]

I know Miles is called the Mad Hatter because he's crazy, but I don't think he's stupid enough to play Jefferson against us very much, if at all. If this Auburn team loses, it will be because we gave up a bunch of points to the passing game. Lee will have to win it for LSU.

I agree with you, Mikey. (Stop the presses).

Auburn would LOVE to see Jefferson at the helm come Saturday. Miles would be silly to put him out there because I think it plays right into a QB that Auburn could handle easily.

[dabrasco 127]

Yes, Lee is the better passer, but he will be the easier of the two for Auburn's front 4 to get a piece of.

[LSUGradin99 51]

StatTiger, that is quite an impressive breakdown!

[LSUGradin99 51]

I know Miles is called the Mad Hatter because he's crazy, but I don't think he's stupid enough to play Jefferson against us very much, if at all. If this Auburn team loses, it will be because we gave up a bunch of points to the passing game. Lee will have to win it for LSU.

I would love to believe that Jefferson would only play sparingly, if any, but that likely will not be the case. Scoring comparisons are alarming when looking at Jefferson's series vs Lee's series.

[tgr4lfe 220]

I know Miles is called the Mad Hatter because he's crazy, but I don't think he's stupid enough to play Jefferson against us very much, if at all. If this Auburn team loses, it will be because we gave up a bunch of points to the passing game. Lee will have to win it for LSU.

I would love to believe that Jefferson would only play sparingly, if any, but that likely will not be the case. Scoring comparisons are alarming when looking at Jefferson's series vs Lee's series.

Welcome to the board. I'm guessing you mean that Lee scores more than Jefferson??

[Duder 238]

While LSU clearly has more defensive talent then we've faced yet this year, this is not 2009 Auburn coming into this game. The team LSU shut down last year is nothing like what they will face on Saturday. LSU's defensive numbers are impressive, they have yet to face a player as dynamic as Cam Newton. I realize the flip side of that is we haven't faced a defense as stiff as LSU and I expect our numbers to be down a bit. To step away from the average yards comparison, I just don't see a way that LSU can contain the Auburn offense the entire game. If our defense can piece a remotely decent effort together Saturday, enough to keep LSU's offense close to being as anemic as they've been all year, the defense will be gassed late which is when we have been cranking up the pressure lately anyway.

I will not go so far as to guarantee an Auburn win. However, if we are concerned about which team will see their average upheld--my money is on Auburn getting closer to our offensive stats than LSU shutting us down and maintaining their performance. We need a healthy Michael Dyer. We need Fannin to continue running hard and keep the ball. More importantly, we need the DBs to play hard enough to keep the LSU offense from gaining confidence. LSU can be a dangerous team if things start clicking. They have good receivers, they just haven't been able to find a QB that can get them the ball with any consistency. If we can force them to rely on their run and be one-dimensional, we've got them. That being said, after watching game film on us this year, LSU will come out making a concerted effort to establish their passing game. IF we can be ready to at least contest that, it will make things very difficult for them. If we don't just completely sell out against the pass like we did (unsuccessfully) against Arkansas, we are a difficult team to run against. The DBs and safeties are going to have to be ready Saturday.

[LSUGradin99 51]

Welcome to the board. I'm guessing you mean that Lee scores more than Jefferson??

Thanks. Glad to rediscover the place in its new format. Had posted sparingly long ago and did not realize the site had new look/name.

When Lee starts drives, good things typically happens. When Jefferson starts drives, bad things happen. For example, all TD's last week were a result of drives started by Lee.

[Duder 238]

Welcome to the board. I'm guessing you mean that Lee scores more than Jefferson??

Thanks. Glad to rediscover the place in its new format. Had posted sparingly long ago and did not realize the site had new look/name.

When Lee starts drives, good things typically happens. When Jefferson starts drives, bad things happen. For example, all TD's last week were a result of drives started by Lee.

I think you guys should leave Lee at home then. He looks tired, could use a rest week

[LSUGradin99 51]

I think you guys should leave Lee at home then. He looks tired, could use a rest week

I need to call Les and remind him not to forget to bring Lee.

[LEGACY TIGER 0]

This will be the matchup for the ages. It is winner take all. Just how it is meant to be. All is right in the balance of the SEC West. We both have our season on the line and are both playing our toughest opponent, thus far. Our key will be to stop Cam, play clean sound football, limit the TO's, and win the battle in the trenches. May the best TIGERS win.

[Duder 238]

This will be the matchup for the ages. It is winner take all. Just how it is meant to be. All is right in the balance of the SEC West. We both have our season on the line and are both playing our toughest opponent, thus far. Our key will be to stop Cam, play clean sound football, limit the TO's, and win the battle in the trenches. May the best TIGERS win.

Welcome to the board.

How do you see you guys matching up against Cam? Do you think they will at some point make a mistake and try to sell out against him, which would open up the passing game?

Line play is going to be huge. Our o-line has looked better recently but LSU always has big, nasty linemen.

[LEGACY TIGER 0]

This will be the matchup for the ages. It is winner take all. Just how it is meant to be. All is right in the balance of the SEC West. We both have our season on the line and are both playing our toughest opponent, thus far. Our key will be to stop Cam, play clean sound football, limit the TO's, and win the battle in the trenches. May the best TIGERS win.

Welcome to the board.

How do you see you guys matching up against Cam? Do you think they will at some point make a mistake and try to sell out against him, which would open up the passing game?

Line play is going to be huge. Our o-line has looked better recently but LSU always has big, nasty linemen.

Winning the battle in the trenches is the key. Our D line has to be able to close the lanes and get a push, forcing Cam to go to the outside. If our D line does this, allowing our linebackers the freedom to close down the outside run, also not taking the bait when Cam looks like he is going to throw, they should be able to keep him contained. Our secondary is going to have to keep you receivers in check to allow our linebackers that freedom. We do this and we should be able to contain Cam and keep him from busting anything big on us. He will have some success, but if we keep him in check, only allowing 3-5 yd/carry, that will be enough to shut down a huge portion of your attack.

[nimsjus 0]

This will be the matchup for the ages. It is winner take all. Just how it is meant to be. All is right in the balance of the SEC West. We both have our season on the line and are both playing our toughest opponent, thus far. Our key will be to stop Cam, play clean sound football, limit the TO's, and win the battle in the trenches. May the best TIGERS win.

Welcome to the board.

How do you see you guys matching up against Cam? Do you think they will at some point make a mistake and try to sell out against him, which would open up the passing game?

Line play is going to be huge. Our o-line has looked better recently but LSU always has big, nasty linemen.

Winning the battle in the trenches is the key. Our D line has to be able to close the lanes and get a push, forcing Cam to go to the outside. If our D line does this, allowing our linebackers the freedom to close down the outside run, also not taking the bait when Cam looks like he is going to throw, they should be able to keep him contained. Our secondary is going to have to keep you receivers in check to allow our linebackers that freedom. We do this and we should be able to contain Cam and keep him from busting anything big on us. He will have some success, but if we keep him in check, only allowing 3-5 yd/carry, that will be enough to shut down a huge portion of your attack.

In case you have not seen alot of our games, Cam has gotten a ton of his yardage in 3-5 yard chunks. It is how we move the chains and keep ourselves from getting in 3rd and longs. A couple of times a game he busts a longer run or two but the solid bulk of his yards come in 4-5 yd chunks. He has been carrying 20-30 times a game. I think if yall cannot stop him for no gain regularly (I dont remember any this season aside from sacks in passing situations), then he will keep us moving the chains. LSU's defense is a mystery to me. The numbers look good but the competition has not been. LSU has yet to play the elite offenses in the SEC to this point. That is not to say that they are not dominant, but I just dont know that it has been tested. AU and Arky will be their biggest tests. Their dline has looked good thus far and the DBs (mostly patterson have gotten alot of recognition). We move WRs around alto so Im not sure Patterson will get a chance to sit on Darvin but it worries me that Cam has forced some to Darvin at times. If he does that while Patterson is present then I think it could go 6 in the other direction. Overall though I like the matchup for AU. We have been explosive on offense and at times LSU has struggled to score. I think we could force the Hat to play more aggresively than he should in an attempt to stop us on O and to try to score with us when LSU is on O. Plus homefield never hurts (especially for a team like AU that is really explosive on O but struggles on D). The fact that LSU has gotten their QB situation to work somewhat compared to earlier in the season makes me a little more nervous than I was a few weeks ago.

[hqsi99 103]

This will be the matchup for the ages. It is winner take all. Just how it is meant to be. All is right in the balance of the SEC West. We both have our season on the line and are both playing our toughest opponent, thus far. Our key will be to stop Cam, play clean sound football, limit the TO's, and win the battle in the trenches. May the best TIGERS win.

Welcome to the board.

How do you see you guys matching up against Cam? Do you think they will at some point make a mistake and try to sell out against him, which would open up the passing game?

Line play is going to be huge. Our o-line has looked better recently but LSU always has big, nasty linemen.

Winning the battle in the trenches is the key. Our D line has to be able to close the lanes and get a push, forcing Cam to go to the outside. If our D line does this, allowing our linebackers the freedom to close down the outside run, also not taking the bait when Cam looks like he is going to throw, they should be able to keep him contained. Our secondary is going to have to keep you receivers in check to allow our linebackers that freedom. We do this and we should be able to contain Cam and keep him from busting anything big on us. He will have some success, but if we keep him in check, only allowing 3-5 yd/carry, that will be enough to shut down a huge portion of your attack.

In case you have not seen alot of our games, Cam has gotten a ton of his yardage in 3-5 yard chunks. It is how we move the chains and keep ourselves from getting in 3rd and longs. A couple of times a game he busts a longer run or two but the solid bulk of his yards come in 4-5 yd chunks. He has been carrying 20-30 times a game. I think if yall cannot stop him for no gain regularly (I dont remember any this season aside from sacks in passing situations), then he will keep us moving the chains. LSU's defense is a mystery to me. The numbers look good but the competition has not been. LSU has yet to play the elite offenses in the SEC to this point. That is not to say that they are not dominant, but I just dont know that it has been tested. AU and Arky will be their biggest tests. Their dline has looked good thus far and the DBs (mostly patterson have gotten alot of recognition). We move WRs around alto so Im not sure Patterson will get a chance to sit on Darvin but it worries me that Cam has forced some to Darvin at times. If he does that while Patterson is present then I think it could go 6 in the other direction. Overall though I like the matchup for AU. We have been explosive on offense and at times LSU has struggled to score. I think we could force the Hat to play more aggresively than he should in an attempt to stop us on O and to try to score with us when LSU is on O. Plus homefield never hurts (especially for a team like AU that is really explosive on O but struggles on D). The fact that LSU has gotten their QB situation to work somewhat compared to earlier in the season makes me a little more nervous than I was a few weeks ago.

I think keeping the ball away from Peterson is going to be big in this game. The last thing Auburn can do is give him a chance to catch a punt in the center of the field with space to work, he will be gone. Hopefully, Auburn's punters will keep the ball away from him or near the sidelines when he does get it.

[LSUGradin99 51]

I think keeping the ball away from Peterson is going to be big in this game. The last thing Auburn can do is give him a chance to catch a punt in the center of the field with space to work, he will be gone. Hopefully, Auburn's punters will keep the ball away from him or near the sidelines when he does get it.

Believe it or not, he has mostly been shut down in returns the past few weeks. But that is compared to the insane production he had early on. How's Auburn's punt coverage team? Does the punter get good hang time? ya know, IF Auburn punts.

[hqsi99 103]

I think keeping the ball away from Peterson is going to be big in this game. The last thing Auburn can do is give him a chance to catch a punt in the center of the field with space to work, he will be gone. Hopefully, Auburn's punters will keep the ball away from him or near the sidelines when he does get it.

Believe it or not, he has mostly been shut down in returns the past few weeks. But that is compared to the insane production he had early on. How's Auburn's punt coverage team? Does the punter get good hang time? ya know, IF Auburn punts.

You're right that Auburn does not punt very much. When they do punt, they are good at kicking the ball very high. It doesn't go very FAR, but it does go HIGH.

[Goodlifetiger 0]

LSU's D is pretty solid across the board. Peterson is not the only back to watch. Nevis is the real deal in the middle and LB play has been good. But all that doesn't mean much against you guys. Cam Newton plays awesome. I really don't see us having a chance against Auburn. Our offense will make your D look great and your great O will score no doubt about it. I hate it but we have to show up and play the game so the Miles Luck might give us a shot. Geaux Tigers.

[MJDub 106]

I think keeping the ball away from Peterson is going to be big in this game. The last thing Auburn can do is give him a chance to catch a punt in the center of the field with space to work, he will be gone. Hopefully, Auburn's punters will keep the ball away from him or near the sidelines when he does get it.

Believe it or not, he has mostly been shut down in returns the past few weeks. But that is compared to the insane production he had early on. How's Auburn's punt coverage team? Does the punter get good hang time? ya know, IF Auburn punts.

Our punt coverage has been pretty solid but especially last week with Arky, our kickoff coverage was lights out. We had them inside the 20 almost every time. Also, I don't have the exact numbers, but we had about twice as many kickoff return yards (with the help of Onterio's 99-yarder) on half as many kickoff returns. I have a feeling both teams will need some big special teams plays to prevail this week, especially if the Hat manages to shut Cam down.

[Strychnine 1,803]

LSU's defense would have me worried to death if this was any other Auburn team between 2005 and now. Their defense is definitely toughest complete unit that we've seen thus far. South Carolina slowed us, but we could also say that our offense was just starting to gel at that point. It's really a matchup of strength vs. strength in our offense vs. their defense, and weakness vs. weakness in our defense vs. their offense. These two teams would be ridiculous if they were just as good on both sides of the ball.

I don't see LSU completely shutting us down. There's too much on that side of the ball for them to completely contain for 60 minutes. I also know better than to expect us to hang 50-60 on them. My guess is that Auburn could possibly be good for high 20's to mid 30's with the offense playing like they know it's a top 10 opponent with the SEC West on the line. I don't see us shutting down LSU's offense. I don't think we could shut down Harvard's offense. I'm hoping that our defense can be disruptive enough to cause a mistake or two. LSU has been good in close games, and so have we. I like us better in a close game, but I'm biased.

[aKaBeasTTT 0]

Good luck trying to stop Cam Newton

If I was LSU's D. coordinator I wouldn't sleep till I found a suitable gameplan. Then I would throw that out the window since I realized it wouldn't work and come up with another one.

Anyways good luck and may the best Tigers win (like someone said earlier)

[Ronin 2]

I might feel differently as I'm watching the game but I think I'd favor us if it goes to overtime. Especially if it is a lower scoring game. Cam's pretty impressive with a short field. Until this week, I'm not sure I felt that way because I didn't think our defense would ever stop anyone at the end of a game. I just don't see their offense being reliable enough or their defense being strong enough for overtime periods.