Genuine Q about Iron Bowl

[AUght2win 6,833]

I fully understand we are not a championship caliber team. We have serious holes. Including the ones in our coach's head. We are very fortunate to be 5-2, and I wouldn't pick us to win Saturday.

That said, why are so many convinced Saturday will be a blowout? Or that a win would be the biggest upset in the rivalry's history? I don't see it, and it's less to do with us and more to do with our opponent. 

Alabama has an otherworldly offense. But it's without its best player. And I don't see us giving up too many explosive plays to an offense sans Waddle.

On the other side of the ball, their defense is the worst, IMO, since Saban's been there - Ole Miss put up 650 yards on them, and they don't play very well against the run.

I think we actually may match up well against them. If we can run the ball (we should be able to) and limit huge chunks through the air (we should be able to), then I think the game will be shortened and we definitely will have a shot in the 4th.

But to those who say otherwise, aside from a lot of offensive talent (which Alabama always has), why are you convinced this one won't be close? 

[smackydoodle 200]

People always start these posts because if Auburn wins "I told ya!" but when they get blown out it just disappears into the abyss.

 

[woodford 3,655]

Auburn’s defense isn’t that good. They let UT run all over them. If Tennessee just ran the ball every play they probably beat Auburn. Auburn’s offense without Tank isn’t that good either because the OL is still mediocre. That’s common knowledge under Gus. 
 

Even without Waddle they have Devonta Smith and N. Harris. They have plenty of other options besides Waddle. They have no shortage of weapons.
 

Re, Ole Miss, they have a better offense than we do. That’s why they put up those numbers. Ole Miss doesn’t have a defense. That’s why they gave up 63 points to them.  Also Alabama’s “bad defense” has more future NFL talent on it than this Auburn defense that held Ole Miss to under 30 points. 

Nothing personal, but how can you even think Auburn has a chance when you’ve seen how they’ve played all year? Not to mention all the injuries. It would be absolute miracle if Auburn wins on Saturday. They do not match up well AT ALL against Alabama. If we were 100% healthy, the spread would probably be 19 or 20 which is still HUGE. 

[Zeek 16,649]

19 minutes ago, AUght2win said:

I fully understand we are not a championship caliber team. We have serious holes. Including the ones in our coach's head. We are very fortunate to be 5-2, and I wouldn't pick us to win Saturday.

That said, why are so many convinced Saturday will be a blowout? Or that a win would be the biggest upset in the rivalry's history? I don't see it, and it's less to do with us and more to do with our opponent. 

Alabama has an otherworldly offense. But it's without its best player. And I don't see us giving up too many explosive plays to an offense sans Waddle.

On the other side of the ball, their defense is the worst, IMO, since Saban's been there - Ole Miss put up 650 yards on them, and they don't play very well against the run.

I think we actually may match up well against them. If we can run the ball (we should be able to) and limit huge chunks through the air (we should be able to), then I think the game will be shortened and we definitely will have a shot in the 4th.

But to those who say otherwise, aside from a lot of offensive talent (which Alabama always has), why are you convinced this one won't be close? 

Just look at common opponents man and the fact that Gus has never won in Tuscaloosa.

Alabama vs Kentucky 63-3 || Auburn vs Kentucky 29-13

Alabama vs Tennessee 48-17 || Auburn vs Tennessee 30-17

Alabama vs Georgia 41-24 || Auburn vs Georgia 27-6 (they put up 41 on a defense we couldn't score 7 on)

Alabama vs Ole Miss 63-48 || Auburn vs Ole Miss 35-28

--------------------------------------------------------------

AL OL > AU DL

AL RBs > AU LBs

AL WRs > AU DBs

AL DL > AU OL

AU RB > AL LB (if Tank is healthy which it doesn't sound like will be the case)

AU WR > AL DBs (maybe)

AL Special Teams > AU Special Teams

Alabama's 5 advantages to Auburn's 2

--------------------------------------------------------------

Objectively there's no reason to think that Auburn has a chance other than it's the Iron Bowl and now Nick Saban won't be there. It's been a decade since we won in Tuscaloosa and they actually look like the #1 team this year. Harris could run for 250 if the defense looks like it did this past week.

[Brad_ATX 13,654]

1) It objectively would be the biggest upset in the rivalry's history.  We're 25 point dogs.

2) Bama is just a better football team than us top to bottom.  They can and usual do score at will.  I think we'll move the ball some on their defense and maybe keep it close at halftime, but losing by 17-21 should be close to reality this week.

[Zeek 16,649]

3 minutes ago, Brad_ATX said:

1) It objectively would be the biggest upset in the rivalry's history.  We're 25 point dogs.

2) Bama is just a better football team than us top to bottom.  They can and usual do score at will.  I think we'll move the ball some on their defense and maybe keep it close at halftime, but losing by 17-21 should be close to reality this week.

Losing by 10 or less would be an earnest moral victory not gonna lie

[AUght2win 6,833]

11 minutes ago, Brad_ATX said:

1) It objectively would be the biggest upset in the rivalry's history.  We're 25 point dogs.

2) Bama is just a better football team than us top to bottom.  They can and usual do score at will.  I think we'll move the ball some on their defense and maybe keep it close at halftime, but losing by 17-21 should be close to reality this week.

Well you may be right purely on point spread, but I think the point spread is absurd. Knock on wood but I see no way we get beat that bad Saturday.

[fredst 9,064]

12 minutes ago, Zeek said:

Losing by 10 or less would be an earnest moral victory not gonna lie

I honestly would put that number at 17-21

[AUght2win 6,833]

46 minutes ago, Zeek said:

Objectively there's no reason to think that Auburn has a chance other than it's the Iron Bowl and now Nick Saban won't be there. It's been a decade since we won in Tuscaloosa and they actually look like the #1 team this year. Harris could run for 250 if the defense looks like it did this past week.

Agree on all points, I just still think this Alabama team looks very beatable. Maybe not by us, but compared to past Saban teams, these guys don't make the cut.

I think about way more talented (than this year's) Alabama squads facing way less talented (than this year's) Auburn teams when Malzahn and Saban face off.

2009 - led for 59 minutes and last on last second drive.

2015 - Jeremy starting at QB. Derrick Henry scores in garbage time to give Bama 29-13 win. Was an arm's length, tense game even if Bama had control.

2016 - 30 to 12. Jeremy starting again. Our offense is dreadful. Defense still kept us relatively close. 

2018 - we got bludgeoned 52-21. Could be a repeat of this game defensively. But I think we are better offensively than we were then, and they are worse defensively.

[gr82be 14,423]

With the point spread being what it is and me thinking it's about right, I think the refs could do a disappearing act in this one and it would be much more fun to watch for us. If we are getting beat handily then the questionable PIs, Holds and Blocks in the back going against us will seem even more unfair than they usually do. The SEC officiating stinks but it pretty much stinks across the board. Hopefully they will just let the guys play and call the really blatant stuff only. If it looks like the calls are one sided it could get uglier than ever imagined. 

[Viper 3,132]

1 hour ago, AUght2win said:

But it's without its best player.

Devonta Smith out?

[Viper 3,132]

41 minutes ago, AUght2win said:

Knock on wood but I see no way we get beat that bad Saturday.

We got beat by 31 in the same place two years ago. The 2018 AU team is better than 2020 AU. Stidham, Brown, Davidson, Iggy and Dean. We don’t have better players than those 5 at their respective positions.  

[AUght2win 6,833]

23 minutes ago, Viper said:

Devonta Smith out?

Jaylen Waddle makes Devonta Smith look almost normal in comparison. Waddle is the most dangerous player in America.

[Viper 3,132]

Just now, AUght2win said:

Jaylen Waddle makes Devonta Smith look almost normal in comparison. Waddle is the most dangerous player in America.

Smith was a 1st round grade last year. He’s projected to go #6 overall, higher than any other player on his team.

[Sizzle 3,912]

1 minute ago, AUght2win said:

Jaylen Waddle makes Devonta Smith look almost normal in comparison. Waddle is the most dangerous player in America.

Not really. Smith is the better player, Waddle is just more electric. It’s like when Sammy Watkins and Nuk Hopkins were on the same team at Clemson. Watkins is what everybody talked about but Hopkins was always the better player. 

But I will say I think we got a better chance than everyone thinks. That Bama team is good but not as good as everyone thinks

[AUght2win 6,833]

7 minutes ago, Viper said:

We got beat by 31 in the same place two years ago. The 2018 AU team is better than 2020 AU. Stidham, Brown, Davidson, Iggy and Dean. We don’t have better players than those 5 at their respective positions.  

Our defense is def way worse than 18's. But our offense is better and Bama's D is worse than that year. 

I would say this year's team is better than 2018. Not by leaps and bounds. But rhe 18 team got beat by Tenn, Miss State, and it took a miracle to beat A&M. They were really demoralized by the time the IB rolled around.

[AUght2win 6,833]

1 minute ago, Sizzle said:

Not really. Smith is the better player, Waddle is just more electric. It’s like when Sammy Watkins and Nuk Hopkins were on the same team at Clemson. Watkins is what everybody talked about but Hopkins was always the better player. 

But I will say I think we got a better chance than everyone thinks. That Bama team is good but not as good as everyone thinks

That's a fair point. It's just hard to think anybody makes a bigger impact than Waddle after his 3 TD performance last year.

[Sizzle 3,912]

2 minutes ago, AUght2win said:

That's a fair point. It's just hard to think anybody makes a bigger impact than Waddle after his 3 TD performance last year.

It’s also hard to think anybody’s made a bigger impact than someone who’s caught more TD’s than anybody else in  SEC history

[PigskinPat 2,579]

54 minutes ago, AUght2win said:

Agree on all points, I just still think this Alabama team looks very beatable. Maybe not by us, but compared to past Saban teams, these guys don't make the cut.

I think about way more talented (than this year's) Alabama squads facing way less talented (than this year's) Auburn teams when Malzahn and Saban face off.

2009 - led for 59 minutes and last on last second drive.

2015 - Jeremy starting at QB. Derrick Henry scores in garbage time to give Bama 29-13 win. Was an arm's length, tense game even if Bama had control.

2016 - 30 to 12. Jeremy starting again. Our offense is dreadful. Defense still kept us relatively close. 

2018 - we got bludgeoned 52-21. Could be a repeat of this game defensively. But I think we are better offensively than we were then, and they are worse defensively.

Looks very beatable? Who have they looked beatable against all season??

[AUght2win 6,833]

1 minute ago, PigskinPat said:

Looks very beatable? Who have they looked beatable against all season??

You miss the Ole Miss game when they gave up 650 yards?

[PigskinPat 2,579]

Just now, AUght2win said:

You miss the Ole Miss game when they gave up 650 yards?

You talking about the game that they won by 15?

[AUght2win 6,833]

14 minutes ago, PigskinPat said:

You talking about the game that they won by 15?

Lol it was 49-45 with 7 minutes to go. Ole Miss held serve all night. Bama pulled away at the very end.

I would hope you'd agree that if you give up 600 yards to a team with a losing record, you can be beat.

[Win4AU 4,052]

Auburns Dline

2 backup OTs.  Coffey I think is only 250lbs

No Tank.  
 

Auburn will keep it close for a minute and then miraculously Bama will score 21 in a 6 minute span and it’s over OR Bama comes out and blows the doors off and then takes the foot off the gas and Auburn puts some points to make it look not as bad as it is.

[Viper 3,132]

23 minutes ago, AUght2win said:

Our defense is def way worse than 18's. But our offense is better and Bama's D is worse than that year. 

I would say this year's team is better than 2018. Not by leaps and bounds. But rhe 18 team got beat by Tenn, Miss State, and it took a miracle to beat A&M. They were really demoralized by the time the IB rolled around.

How is the 20 offense better than 18? Other than Whitlow, we were superior at every offensive position in 18 except WR where it’s a push. With Tank likely out this Sat, even that position isn’t clearly in favor of the 20 offense. 

The 20 team lost to a team who has already fired their HC.

18 is a better team than 20. It’s not even close.

[PigskinPat 2,579]

23 minutes ago, AUght2win said:

Lol it was 49-45 with 7 minutes to go. Ole Miss held serve all night. Bama pulled away at the very end.

I would hope you'd agree that if you give up 600 yards to a team with a losing record, you can be beat.

I would also hope you’d agree that one game where you got into a shootout with another team the third game of the season and still won by 15 doesn’t make you “very beatable”. Since that game, their margin of victory has been: 17, 31, 41, and 60.

If we were a high powered offense I’d share in your optimism, but we haven’t put up 600 yards of offense on anybody this season.