Some comparisons with 2003 and other thoughts

[aubman1 0]

It bothers me greatly that people would even consider that we wont beat La Mo. I read in another topic that their has been no improvement or development on D. Give me a break! I actually saw a d back look for the ball and knock the pass away. They had the benefit of a spring training and a fall camp. They will get better...much better. I saw effort. Russell played alot last ye a r. He made a big jump this year. He made plays. He is where Kiehl will be next year. Get behind team and support them!!

[metafour 4,969]

Give me a break! I actually saw a d back look for the ball and knock the pass away.

I also saw a d-back get completely beaten on literally 3 separate touchdowns.

[jvilletiger 0]

I don't get the "we recruited for Malzahn's offense" excuse. EVERYBODY wanted our commits, prostyle teams too.

[weagl1 1,789]

I will stand behind this post, and you can hold me to it. I will wear a diaper to game if I am wrong. As long as Saban is at Bama and we have Chizik, it will be like the old Bear years in the 70's. If Auburn does not go out and get Petrino or Chip Kelly, we can not hang with the big dogs. Something is not right on the Plains...look at all the off field issues we are having.

So Petrino doesn't have issues? We want a backstabbing whoremonger who quit on his team by leaving a note on the board or however it was he quit on the Falcons? That would project a great image for our university!

[GBAU83 212]

Thanks for the original post - sheds some light on the situation overall.

[EVIL5LITER 0]

<p><p>Some of us seem to have some very short memories. I've heard numerous posters say that this is the "worst start in the history of Auburn football." Have we already forgotten '03? In response to some of the common themes here on AUF, here are some numbers and points of comparison between the first two games of this year and the first two games of '03. And I would ask that you at least do me the favor of reading the entire post before you tell me how stupid/delusional/wrong I am.

<br /><br />

<ul class="bbc">

<li><b>Game 1:</b> Statistical comparison of 2003 and 2012

</li>

</ul>

<TABLE>

<TR>

<TH width="5%">

<TH width="16%"> <TH width="10%"><b>2003 Season</b> <TH width="10%"><b>2012 Season</b>

<TH width="59%">

<TR><TH><TH>Rank <TH>6 <TH>NR<TH>

<TR><TH><TH>Opponent Rank <TH>8 <TH>14<TH>

<TR><TH><TH>Rank Difference <TH>+2 <TH><-11<TH>

<TR><TH><TH>Points For <TH>0 <TH>19<TH>

<TR><TH><TH>Points Against <TH>23 <TH>26<TH>

<TR><TH><TH>Margin <TH>-23 <TH>-7<TH>

<TR><TH><TH>1st Downs <TH>11 <TH>17<TH>

<TR><TH><TH>Total Yards <TH>164 <TH>374<TH>

<TR><TH><TH>Passing <TH>121 <TH>194<TH>

<TR><TH><TH>Rushing <TH>43 <TH>180<TH>

<TR><TH><TH>Penalties <TH>4-30 <TH>6-38<TH>

<TR><TH><TH>3rd Down Conversions <TH>3-15 <TH>4-13<TH>

<TR><TH><TH>4th Down Conversions <TH>1-1 <TH>0-1<TH>

<TR><TH><TH>Turnovers <TH>3 <TH>2<TH>

<TR><TH><TH>Possession <TH>27:45 <TH>28:15<TH>

</TABLE>

<br /><br />

<ul class="bbc">

<li><b>Game 2:</b> Statistical comparison of 2003 and 2012

</li>

</ul>

<TABLE>

<TR>

<TH width="5%">

<TH width="16%"> <TH width="10%"><b>2003 Season</b> <TH width="10%"><b>2012 Season</b>

<TH width="59%">

<TR><TH><TH>Rank <TH>19 <TH>NR<TH>

<TR><TH><TH>Opponent Rank <TH>NR <TH>NR<TH>

<TR><TH><TH>Rank Difference <TH>>+6 <TH>N/A<TH>

<TR><TH><TH>Points For <TH>3 <TH>10<TH>

<TR><TH><TH>Points Against <TH>17 <TH>28<TH>

<TR><TH><TH>Margin <TH>-14 <TH>-18<TH>

<TR><TH><TH>1st Downs <TH>14 <TH>15<TH>

<TR><TH><TH>Total Yards <TH>230 <TH>216<TH>

<TR><TH><TH>Passing <TH>190 <TH>125<TH>

<TR><TH><TH>Rushing <TH>40 <TH>91<TH>

<TR><TH><TH>Penalties <TH>10-93 <TH>7-57<TH>

<TR><TH><TH>3rd Down Conversions <TH>4-17 <TH>2-12<TH>

<TR><TH><TH>4th Down Conversions <TH>2-4 <TH>1-1<TH>

<TR><TH><TH>Turnovers <TH>2 <TH>5<TH>

<TR><TH><TH>Possession <TH>33:43 <TH>29:19<TH>

</TABLE>

Now, in response to some of the most common grievances being expressed here at AUF:

<ul class="bbc">

<li><i>"This is the worst performing team in Auburn history."</i> - Really? Looking at the statistics above, I find that to be a hard argument to substantiate. At the very least, it is highly debatable. Also, here are some averages that would seem to dispute that claim:

</li>

</ul>

<TABLE>

<TR>

<TH width="5%">

<TH width="16%"> <TH width="10%"><b>2003 Season</b> <TH width="10%"><b>2012 Season</b>

<TH width="59%">

<TR><TH><TH>Ave Margin of defeat <TH>18.5 <TH>12.5<TH>

<TR><TH><TH>Ave 1st Downs <TH>13 <TH>16<TH>

<TR><TH><TH>Ave Total Yards <TH>197 <TH>295<TH>

<TR><TH><TH>Ave Passing <TH>155 <TH>159.5<TH>

<TR><TH><TH>Ave Rushing <TH>41.5 <TH>135.5<TH>

<TR><TH><TH>Ave 3rd Down Conversions <TH>21.9% <TH>24%<TH>

<TR><TH><TH>Ave 4th Down Conversions <TH>50% <TH>50%<TH>

<TR><TH><TH>Ave Turnover <TH>2.5 <TH>3.5<TH>

<TR><TH><TH>Possession <TH>30:44 <TH>28:48<TH>

</TABLE>

<ul class="bbc">

<li><i>"But its different because of the potential and expectations for this team."</i> - Again, really? Based on what, the biased opinions of the fanbase? The 2003 team was ranked 6th in the preseason AP poll and expected to compete for a national championship. The expectations were much higher. And in terms of talent. That team had 4 future 1st round draft picks on it. The receiving core was also incredibly solid with three future NFL WRs, two of which are still on NFL rosters this season. Talent wise, the starters we fielded in '03 was basically the same lineup we fielded in '04, which was top to bottom one of the most talented teams Auburn has ever had. Objectively speaking, there is no way the expectations this year could (or at least should) have been higher than in '03.

</li>

</ul>

<ul class="bbc">

<li><i>"But after 4 years, we are not showing steady improvement. Chizik has had more than enough time. We should be cranking out 10 win seasons."</i> - The last three years have been 8 wins, 14 wins, and 8 wins. In '00, '01, and '02 Tuberville produced 9 wins, 7 wins, and 9 wins. Not exactly three years of consistency, and no national championship either. Also, an 0-2 start after 9 wins is obviously more disappointing than an 0-2 start after 8 wins. Furthermore, Tuberville had one more season under his belt. Just like this year, people were calling for the HCs head, and the board of trustees and AD actually tried to act on it. Fortunately, they didn't succeed, because what happened next was an average of slightly better than 10 wins over the next 4 years.

</li>

</ul>

In summary, I don't see any reason to panic yet. Sure things look bad, and we are all disappointed, but welcome to the life of a college football fan. I'm sure there will be plenty of responses telling me why I'm wrong and why I'm just settling for mediocity and so on. Whatever. I love Auburn. I don't need 14 reasons I can list on my t-shirt to justify my loyalty. I'm more than satisfied with 3 reasons I can list on my resume. If you are expecting us to find a couch in the near future who can match Nick Saban, I say good luck with that. Here's a news flash: Nick Saban is the only person in the country who is doing it. So tell me, even if we had our pick of any couch in CFB, who would you suggest we get that could meet those expectations. Chizik has already given us an NC, which is more than practically 99% of FBS fanbases can say about their current HC. Yeah, if things don't start to improve in the next year or so, it will probably be time to move on, but honestly, some of us need to get a grip and realize that the only real power we have as fans is to support this team 100% until the last second ticks off the clock in the '12 season. Then have at it. If we start showing our dissent now, it is only going to make things worse and give the team one more obstacle to overcome, which is the last thing they need right now.

<p><br />

At the end of the day, we need to ask ourselves one important question. Why Auburn? We could pull for any team, So why Auburn? I have always believed that it was because Auburn had something special. A certain character and class of fanbase that made it different. But after reading some of the recent posts here on AUF, especially the ones going so far as to say that its time to start doing "whatever it takes to win," I'm really not so sure anymore. And that makes me far more disappointed than anything that has happened on the football field.

First off, I want to say I think this was yet another excellent post by hewlejd, so bravo. I just wish I knew how to pronounce that name.

Secondly, I think that from a statistical perspective that the comparison is fair, but I need to ask a couple of questions as I don't exactly remember that 2003 season.

Wasn't the first game against a USC team that ended up #1 in the AP poll at the end of the year and had a share of the NC? If so, those guys were pretty darned good, and a damn sight better than the Clemson team you played in week 1.

The second game was against a Georgia Tech team led by Reggie Ball (again, I think). I'm not going to disupte that one, it was a bad loss, lol. Anytime you lose to Reggie Ball it is a bad loss.

I can't argue much with your logic other than to say that I think a comparison of those two teams is flawed because of a lot of reasons, not the least of which is team attitude and perception. Whereas the 2003 team THOUGHT that they were going to be great and found out that they hadn't worked hard enough to acheive success, the 2012 team looks more like a team that doesn't think they are winners, no matter how hard they worked. They don't have that confidence in themselves that most all great teams have.

Having said all that, I agree with your sentiment 100% of supporting the team no matter what. As a fan, you can always do your part to cheer for the team and support them in everything they do, but no one should assume that just because you support your team that you cannot question the job that the coaching staff has done. The players are not paid and they are there on the field and therefore in my opinion should be above criticism. The coaches are not on the field and are paid to control what product is put on the field and therefore are fair game for any and all criticism that is leveled at them.

[Raven_tiger 5]

Good post. Much more talent on this team than the '03 team. With any kind of coaching this team will far exceed that one.

Huh??? The 2003 team probably had more NFL talent than any Auburn team...ever.

[au_bsci_04 407]

I don't get the "we recruited for Malzahn's offense" excuse. EVERYBODY wanted our commits, prostyle teams too.

Scat backs and 160 lb receivers who can get off blocks? Who else in the top half of the league has that? It's an issue and even CTT and CCL have discussed it during fall camp. We have discussed amongst this board the overall size difference in this years recruiting class (I.e. Wilkins/Green, Robinson/Kearse/Treadwell).

[EVIL5LITER 0]

Good post. Much more talent on this team than the '03 team. With any kind of coaching this team will far exceed that one.

Huh??? The 2003 team probably had more NFL talent than any Auburn team...ever.

Strictly from a talent standpoint, from top to bottom, the current team probably has more potential than the 2003 team. That isn't to say that all of that talent will turn into NFL first rounders or anything like that, just strictly from a raw talent perspective. That Auburn team had a lot of great players at a couple of different positions, but they didn't have the depth like this team does, which is part of the reason that their current problems are so puzzling. With the exception of running back, I don't recall there being any amazing backups on that Auburn team.

[EVIL5LITER 0]

I don't get the "we recruited for Malzahn's offense" excuse. EVERYBODY wanted our commits, prostyle teams too.

Scat backs and 160 lb receivers who can get off blocks? Who else in the top half of the league has that? It's an issue and even CTT and CCL have discussed it during fall camp. We have discussed amongst this board the overall size difference in this years recruiting class (I.e. Wilkins/Green, Robinson/Kearse/Treadwell).

For the most part, there is a lot of crossover between teams with different style offenses and defenses, which is why it is a little misleading for someone to say that a coach needs to recruit players to fit his system.

Where the major difference comes in is what position those players play when they come in. Whereas McCaleb came in as a running back in the Malzahn system, with a team like LSU, he would be a receiver or a cornerback, and not a running back. Most coaches do not like to have a player change positions after their first or second year in college because it takes too much time for the player to be able to contribute.

[hewlejd 6]

First off, I want to say I think this was yet another excellent post by hewlejd, so bravo. I just wish I knew how to pronounce that name.

Secondly, I think that from a statistical perspective that the comparison is fair, but I need to ask a couple of questions as I don't exactly remember that 2003 season.

Wasn't the first game against a USC team that ended up #1 in the AP poll at the end of the year and had a share of the NC? If so, those guys were pretty darned good, and a damn sight better than the Clemson team you played in week 1.

The second game was against a Georgia Tech team led by Reggie Ball (again, I think). I'm not going to disupte that one, it was a bad loss, lol. Anytime you lose to Reggie Ball it is a bad loss.

I can't argue much with your logic other than to say that I think a comparison of those two teams is flawed because of a lot of reasons, not the least of which is team attitude and perception. Whereas the 2003 team THOUGHT that they were going to be great and found out that they hadn't worked hard enough to acheive success, the 2012 team looks more like a team that doesn't think they are winners, no matter how hard they worked. They don't have that confidence in themselves that most all great teams have.

Having said all that, I agree with your sentiment 100% of supporting the team no matter what. As a fan, you can always do your part to cheer for the team and support them in everything they do, but no one should assume that just because you support your team that you cannot question the job that the coaching staff has done. The players are not paid and they are there on the field and therefore in my opinion should be above criticism. The coaches are not on the field and are paid to control what product is put on the field and therefore are fair game for any and all criticism that is leveled at them.

That is a fair critique. I would agree that there are some differences in the circumstances between this year and 2003. I was not trying to imply that there is no reason for concern based on what has happened this year, or that there is no room for criticism. What has happened through these first two games is bad. In fact, it could not be much worse. My point is that it's not the first time things have been dismally bad, and yet we managed to survive under similar circumstances. More importantly, to give up completely, especially in the middle of a season when a coaching change is not going to improve anything in the short term (and would likely make things worse) is counter productive. The difference comes down to holding out hope, and that does not mean one can't express concern. If you give up hope, how can you really continue to support your team? I talk football with my dad on a weekly basis, and we routinely voice our concerns. The difference is in how we phrase it. We usually express things in the form of "I'm worried about [xyz]," or "I really hope we can manage to correct [x], or we are going to have a long year." We don't make hopeless statements like "we can't do [x] and it's all [y]'s fault and there is no way we can get it straightened out until we get rid of [y]," or "this team is terrible. We will be lucky to win a game this year." Even if that is a possibility, if you give up on the team, and the possibility that they can improve, do you really even care about the team you say you pull for? And if not, what makes you a fan? Again, all I'm trying to ask is that people hold out hope. We are all disappointed and worried, but what is giving up going to accomplish? At least wait until the offseason. If you still have the same feelings about the coaching staff, have at it.

By the way EVIL, while some of the people on this board have not embraced your presence, I have to say I enjoy having you here. I can tell you are very sharp, which forces me to be sharp as well and pay closer attention to what I'm posting. It is refreshing and I enjoy the challenge. I am not a proud person, and I have no problem admitting when I'm wrong. Debate is like a game to me: sometimes you win, sometimes you lose. It can be a lot of fun as long as you don't take it personally. Besides, as it says in proverbs: "just as iron sharpens iron, so one man sharpens another." or something to that effect. Anyway, welcome to AUF.

[EVIL5LITER 0]

Thanks for the welcome. I tend to be pretty abrasive to most people when they first encounter me, but once they understand what I'm trying to bring about (better and more intelligent debate), they usually warm up pretty fast. I just hope I'm able to stick around long enough so most people can understand that.

A lot of people ask why I'm not on some other team's board and to put that simply, I saw a lot of dissent here (I've been lurking for well over a year, long back in the Auburn Eagle days) and felt that a lot of it was unfair and misdirected, so I wanted to put my opinion out there as a neutral observer to help people maybe get a new perspective on the team. Unfortunately, a lot of people took that as trolling due to what some other fans have done in the past to opposing fanbases, so they are a little gunshy, and I can understand that.

I always try to point out to people that as good as I am at debate, do you think I couldn't be successful if I did want to troll someone? In the end though, that holds no fascination for me. I like to take people that hold preconceived notions and then prove them wrong, hopefully with them learning something in the process and becoming a better poster. Competition improves the breed and naturally weeds out the weak, so like I tell people, if you want to get rid of the trolls, raise your game beyond their level and you won't have to worry about not being able to tell the difference between legitimate criticism and someone trying to troll your fanbase.

Thanks for participating, it makes all this time spent worth it.

[jvilletiger 0]

I don't get the "we recruited for Malzahn's offense" excuse. EVERYBODY wanted our commits, prostyle teams too.

Scat backs and 160 lb receivers who can get off blocks? Who else in the top half of the league has that? It's an issue and even CTT and CCL have discussed it during fall camp. We have discussed amongst this board the overall size difference in this years recruiting class (I.e. Wilkins/Green, Robinson/Kearse/Treadwell).

That's just who the coaches are deciding to put on the field. Blakeley 200+ pounds, Mason 200+, Coates 6'2"+, Denson 6'2"+, Louis 6'+, everyone wanted our Oline, everyone wanted Lutz, Prosch All American FB.

[metafour 4,969]

Scat backs and 160 lb receivers who can get off blocks?

Who are the 160lb receivers? Benton is 6'2 and almost 210lbs. He's done nothing. Denson is 6'3 and 210lbs. He's yet to do much. Coates is 6'2/6'3 and 200lbs. Yet to do anything. Louis is a tank, probably 6'1/6'2 and 210lbs. Even the shorter receivers are all in the 190 range.

But please, continue making s*** up.

Alabama's leading receiving core?

6'2 193 lb Kevin Norwood

6'0 181 lb DeAndrew White

5'11 175 lb Christion Jones

GIANTS.