Something Interesting to Note . . .

[lca408 367]

I was listening to JOX this morning on the way into work and Barker was reading off the unit rankings for Auburn and Arkansas - ie: total offense or total defense, etc. I decided to do some stat research of my own and came up with the following:

Arkansas has played 5 opponents with a combined 16-5 record up to this point. The best team they have played is Alabama, currently sitting at 5-0 and ranked #1 in the country. The worst team is likely Jacksonville State, which is currently 2-2 on the year. The next best team on their schedule based on record is Rutgers, currently 4-0 on the year. However, Rutgers cut its teeth on beating teams like Howard, Tulane, and South Florida. Arkansas is currently 1-4.

Auburn has played 4 opponents with a combined 15-3 record up to this point. The best team Auburn has faced is likely LSU, 5-0 and ranked #3 or #4 depending on what poll you look at. The worst team is La Monroe, currently 2-2, as well as being an FBS school unlike Jacksonville State. The next best team is probably a toss up between Clemson and MSU, both of whom have also played weak competition, yet still play in much more competitive conferences than Rutgers. Auburn is currently 1-3.

At first glance, the opponents' records look relatively even, with a slight advantage to Auburn in strength of schedule. As noted in an earlier post, Auburn is currently sitting with the #1 toughest schedule in the country based on the Sagarin rankings.

Now, looking at the defenses - Arkansas comes into the game ranked #120 out of 124 FBS teams. Auburn enters the game ranked #78. The defensive advantage goes to Auburn, especially when considering pass defense where the Tigers are currently ranked 47th in the nation, (ahead of South Carolina at 48) while Arkansas sits near the bottom at 121. Now let's evaluate the skill of the teams that the two defenses have faced:

Arkansas Opponents - Total Offense Avg. - #41 in country

Auburn Opponents - Total Offense Avg. - #36 in country

Auburn has fared better defensively against better offensive teams than Arkansas has against slightly lower production. I did not include JSU in Arkansas' average because they are an FCS school, but when you look at their offensive production, at 383 yards per game, the Gamecocks would end up around 83rd in the country, which when averaged with the other 4 teams, brings Arkansas' average down to #49 in the country.

I say all this to illustrate the opportunity that Auburn has on Saturday. Defensively, Auburn has shown its worth and potential against LSU. What is needed is strong production and execution against the Hogs to jumpstart a turnaround on the Plains. I listed Auburn's pass defense because Arkansas is primarily a passing offense. Hopefully, the Tigers can step up and deliver when needed to. It also shows the potential for the Auburn offense to have a breakout game. If, for example, Auburn had played a "cupcake" team like JSU during its offweek, the Tigers could have potentially improved their own offensive ranking with another La Monroe-like performance. Kiehl Frazier has the chance to open up his passing game more than he has been able to so far in the season. Frazier's best passing performances on the year came against Clemson and La Monroe, the 90th and 82nd ranked pass defenses in the country. Frazier threw for 194 and 163 yards respectively in those two games, averaging out to 178 yards per game. If Frazier can perform according to the rankings, he would potentially throw for well over 200 yards on Saturday which would be a welcome sight to Auburn fans frustrated by the seeming incompetence on offense.

Again, none of this means anything unless Auburn steps up and delivers on Saturday. Comparing defensive stats and opponents' records won't change the fact that Auburn is in a precarious situation right now at 1-3, and desperately needs something positive to happen on Saturday. However, I think we can be more hopeful when we consider the strength of the teams we've already faced, and look forward to the next 5 games vs. opponents with a combined 9-14 record. IF Auburn can improve week to week like the baby steps we've seen so far, we could be 6-3 going into the Georgia game.

Stay Hopeful! War Eagle!

Ryan

[Charleston Tiger 134]

Interesting stats, thanks for doing the legwork on that