FSU run defense - a breakdown of opponents

[lca408 366]

Once again, Auburn is facing a supposedly tough test against a defense that is highly ranked and supposdely poised to make sure our "one-dimensional" offense doesn't have any success against them in Pasadena. Of course, for us Auburn folks, this is not a new dynamic. Going into games against Georgia, Alabama, and Missouri, the talking heads all predicted the same thing - that Auburn was now facing a "real" defense that was going to prevent the Tigers from beating them with the run and forcing Nick Marshall out of his comfort zone. In successive weeks, Auburn faced down all 3 defenses - the 3 best they had faced that season, and piled up chunks of rushing yardage that those teams were not prepared for. Going into this Championship game, I decided to take a look at Florida State's competition this year and compare it to the 3 above mentioned teams, to see how they stack up and if FSU's run defense deserves it's current high ranking.

First, let's establish where these teams are currently ranked in rushing defense. In order:

#11 - Alabama

#14 - Florida State

#43 - Georgia

#48 - Missouri

Both Georgia and Missouri were ranked much higher in the national rankings at the time of Auburn's matchups with them. Regardless, this is what the rankings are right now. At the moment, based on those rankings, it would appear that Auburn has played only 1 opponent who's strength on run defense is comparable to FSU - Alabama, in a game where Auburn put up 296 rushing yards. But let's go deeper and take a look, not at rushing yards but at the level of competition. Specifically, how does the competition that these teams faced match up with their rankings? Do these teams deserve those accolades?

I examined the opponents that all 4 played this year and their current rankings in rushing offense. After compiling these rankings, I averaged them to come up with a base average for each team and the strength of the opponents that they faced. I included all teams they faced with the exception of the FCS teams that all four played. The average SOS of rushing opponents is as follows:

#52 - Alabama

#72 - Florida State

#46 - Georgia

#47 - Missouri

Of course, these averages will always be slightly skewed. Because of the wide range of opponents a given team will face throughout the season, it's easy to see how any team might have a ranking anywhere from 40th to 80th, even in a power BCS conference. Based on the overall stats however, Georgia comes out on top, facing the toughest overall competition this year at 46th, with Missouri right behind and Alabama not far back. But let's take a closer look now. Let's take out the out-of-conference opponents and focus only on in-conference opponents SOS:

#39 - Alabama

#70 - FSU

#49 - Georgia

#54 - Missouri

Not a huge change to FSU, UGA, or Mizzou but a significant jump for Alabama's SOS from #52 to #39. But this is also a bit misleading. After all, UAT, UGA, and Mizzou all include Auburn in their SOS which is currently ranked #1 in rushing offense. We need to consider the SOS of those teams without Auburn being factored in:

#45 - Alabama

#56 - Georgia

#60 - Missouri

Now we're starting to see some differences. Alabama drops slightly but still sits pretty solidly at #45. Georgia settles in at #56 while Missouri continues to drop at #60. Remember, this includes all conference opponents excluding Auburn, meaning Missouri has 8 teams being averaged while both Georgia and Alabama have 7.

This is quite interesting to look at because it may give us some insight as to how each defense fared against Auburn's running game. In this case, Alabama's current ranking of #11, their SOS sitting at #45, and the amount of rushing yards given up at 296 seems to correspond relatively well. There's no doubt in my mind that Alabama's run defense is every bit as good as advertised when you compare the stats to the competition they have played. In Georgia's case, we can see that their SOS dropped about 10 places but again, considering the competition they played along with the losses on that defense in the offseason, it fits relatively well here - Georgia gave up just over 320 yards rushing to Auburn in 2013.

The big outlier here is Missouri. Going into Atlanta, the Tigers had the league's 2nd best rushing defense, allowing just over 119 yards per game. Most analysts thought they would give up more than that in the SECCG but no one expected Auburn to dominate the line of scrimmage the way that they did. Perhaps a look at Mizzou's SOS can help explain this. Remember, Mizzou played all of the same teams that UGA did in the East, plus UGA itself and Ole Miss and Texas A&M. Missouri is currently ranked #17 in rushing offense in the country and could not play itself. Therefore, Mizzou's SOS took a hit where UGA's didn't. Outside of South Carolina who ranks at #30 in rushing offense, the Tigers didn't play another top 40 rushing offense in conference all year, with their 3 FBS OOC opponents ranking in at #15, #32, and #29. Of course, those OOC opponents are all unranked. But does their SOS really match up with the yardage they gave up to Auburn in Atlanta? Certainly of those 3 SEC teams, they had the lowest SOS which would seem to correspond with the large rushing yardage. It can also be reasonably inferred that the SEC East was the weaker division in conference this year. Perhaps it makes sense that Missouri's relatively weak SOS against rushing offenses meant that the Tigers' defense was overrated and Auburn exposed them in Atlanta, though I'm not sure we can attribute it to just the SOS. Certainly, Auburn executed at an extremely high level and while Missouri certainly has excellent athletes on defense, there is little or no defense against a perfectly executed play, especially when it is run at a fast pace. Regardless, the statistics certainly seem to point in that direction.

Which brings us to FSU. As I mentioned above, I included both their overall average and their conference averages with a difference of two spots between the two - #72 for overall, #70 for conference. FSU played in a relatively weak ACC, with Boston College ranking the highest in rushing offense at #20, Syracuse coming in at #39, and a whole host of other opponents well into the 60s and 70s, including both Pitt and Wake Forest at #113 and #117 respectively. Both are conference opponents. Even if we remove those outliers, FSU's SOS improves to #57 - still not impressive by a long shot. Of course, FSU still played those teams and their SOS against rushing offenses is lacking in substance.

Credit should be given where credit is due, and Florida State has remained undefeated and near the top of rushing defenses in the country all year. Even though they haven't played many quality rushing teams, we can give them credit for remaining consistent, however, given the similarities between theirs and Missouri's SOSs, perhaps facing Auburn's rushing attack will be the worst thing to happen for that defense. Let's also remember that FSU's SOS is directly related to the ability of it's opponents to have success - and FSU's ACC opponents have only been playing other ACC teams. With an average SOS at 70th in conference, it's likely that the true strength of those opponents is even lower.

Regardless of how you want to consider those statistics, the trends seem to speak for themselves. The SOS combined with the rushing yards allowed seem to coincide at some level. If that's the case, it would seem to indicate Auburn would have a relatively successful day against Florida State running the ball. Of course, the 4 week prep time may limit what Auburn can do but I think it's safe to say that when comparing the SOS of Alabama's and FSU's opponents, if the Tigers can gain 296 on Alabama's defense which is not overrated, Auburn can probably gain at least as much if not more against the Seminoles.

Ryan

[aufootball1 42]

AUsome write up... Thank you! Let the offense "do what they do", DOMINATE THE RUNNING GAME! I also think with Coach Craig's insight, our defense will have an edge.

[Auctoritas 2,828]

Now THAT'S good stuff. Nice job!

[IndianTiger 95]

Thanks for the insights. I think the first drive will be a great indicator, when we start making those runs and go hurry up. Missouri couldn't make the adjustments and whatever they made looked even worse. It will be fun to watch the matchup..

I think our D line shows up big time as well.

[FootballFanatic 4]

http://espn.go.com/blog/acc/post/_/id/64593/image-repair-still-needed-for-accs-bowl-teams

They had their first winning record in bowl games in 2012. 4-2 but only 6 bowl eligible teams.

We are talking about the ACC. They have been utter crap for so long that looking good in that conference takes just a bit of good recruiting and consistency. Last year they got paired up with Northern Illinois in their bowl game. That would be a mismatch for NIU against half the ACC.

Honestly, I have no doubt they will pass on us but they won't be able to stop our run cold like they think. We will be playing a game of stops. Who can stop the other team enough to win. Which team stops itself too much and loses. I still think Auburn wins by 3 scores.

[IronMan70 3,277]

rankings:

*1- Auburn's offensive rushing rank

14- FSU's defensive rushing rank

72- FSU opponents' average offensive rushing rank.

*3- Bama's defensive rushing rank before the AU game

11- Bama's defensive rushing rank after the AU game

14- Mizzou's defensive rushing rank before the AU game

48- Mizzou's defensive rushing rank after the AU game

Opponent defensive rushing yard avg before the AU game vs AU rushing yards in the game (last 4):

UTen- 197 ypg allowed: AU rushed for 444 or 2X opponent's avg.

UGa- 143 ypg allowed: AU rushed for 323 or 2X opponent's avg.

UAla- 91 ypg allowed: AU rushed for 296 or 3X opponent's avg.

Mizz- 119 ypg allowed: AU rushed for 545 or 4X opponent's avg.

[hikerdns 52]

last 4 games:

UTen- 197 ypg allowed: AU rushed for 444 or 2X opponent's avg.

UGa- 143 ypg allowed: AU rushed for 323 or 2X opponent's avg.

UAla- 91 ypg allowed: AU rushed for 296 or 3X opponent's avg.

Mizz- 119 ypg allowed: AU rushed for 545 or 4X opponent's avg.

I like that trend!

[eibua12 81]

last 4 games:

UTen- 197 ypg allowed: AU rushed for 444 or 2X opponent's avg.

UGa- 143 ypg allowed: AU rushed for 323 or 2X opponent's avg.

UAla- 91 ypg allowed: AU rushed for 296 or 3X opponent's avg.

Mizz- 119 ypg allowed: AU rushed for 545 or 4X opponent's avg.

I like that trend!

Lack of depth on Defense killed Mizzou, I expect FSU will have more depth.

[AcUmen 242]

last 4 games:

UTen- 197 ypg allowed: AU rushed for 444 or 2X opponent's avg.

UGa- 143 ypg allowed: AU rushed for 323 or 2X opponent's avg.

UAla- 91 ypg allowed: AU rushed for 296 or 3X opponent's avg.

Mizz- 119 ypg allowed: AU rushed for 545 or 4X opponent's avg.

I like that trend!

Lack of depth on Defense killed Mizzou, I expect FSU will have more depth.

It's true FSU has more depth, but the question is will it matter? It's hard to go from defending pro-style and spread offenses all year to having to defend a shotgun triple-option in 2 weeks. (Remember the players only get 15 practices).

Here is one example of why AU's offense is so hard to defend. Perhaps my favorite play of the season. Even bammers NFL secondary (who is very disciplined) fell for it. There's just no way to defend everything with AU's O:

If you "cheat" to spy the run, well you get burned with the pass. If you don't cheat to spy Marshall, well AU just gets 5-10 yards and moves the chains.

[triangletiger 1,599]

The OP confirms what I suspect will be the case for the NC game - we should have success running the ball against FSU. I think our defense is good enough to stop them from having much success rushing, so I believe the game will hinge on how well we do on defense to stop their passing game. Like Mizzou, they have some big, physical receivers. However, Winston appears to be a better passer than James Franklin. We're going to have to have success putting pressure on Winston like we did against Franklin. I like our chances.

[AUY2K 271]

UTen- 197 ypg allowed: AU rushed for 444 or 2X opponent's avg.

UGa- 143 ypg allowed: AU rushed for 323 or 2X opponent's avg.

UAla- 91 ypg allowed: AU rushed for 296 or 3X opponent's avg.

Mizz- 119 ypg allowed: AU rushed for 545 or 4X opponent's avg.

And hopefully...

FSU- 117 ypg allowed: AU rushes for 585+ or 5X opponent's avg.

[FootballFanatic 4]

The OP confirms what I suspect will be the case for the NC game - we should have success running the ball against FSU. I think our defense is good enough to stop them from having much success rushing, so I believe the game will hinge on how well we do on defense to stop their passing game. Like Mizzou, they have some big, physical receivers. However, Winston appears to be a better passer than James Franklin. We're going to have to have success putting pressure on Winston like we did against Franklin. I like our chances.

He looks better against ACC defenses.

[t_wingo 1]

Another fun rushing stat--Auburn averages gaining 182 ypg more on the ground that their FBS opponents give up on average. Florida State averages holding opponents to 43 ypg less on the ground than their opponents gain. Advantage AU?

[texasautiger 0]

Another fun rushing stat--Auburn averages gaining 182 ypg more on the ground that their FBS opponents give up on average. Florida State averages holding opponents to 43 ypg less on the ground than their opponents gain. Advantage AU?

^This. In terms of percentages, AU rushed for 93% more than their opponent's allowed on average, while FSU held opponent's to 28% less than they averaged. Either way, that works out to about 275 yards for AU. I'd take that all day.

[AcUmen 242]

Another fun rushing stat--Auburn averages gaining 182 ypg more on the ground that their FBS opponents give up on average. Florida State averages holding opponents to 43 ypg less on the ground than their opponents gain. Advantage AU?

^This. In terms of percentages, AU rushed for 93% more than their opponent's allowed on average, while FSU held opponent's to 28% less than they averaged. Either way, that works out to about 275 yards for AU. I'd take that all day.

True, but who has FSU played that had a real rushing threat? I can name two teams that are good but not great: Boston College and Miami.

On the other hand pretty much every SEC team (especially in the west) has top tier RB's. LSU has some great ones who gashed AU pretty hard. Bammer, of course, has the best money can buy. Ole Miss, while more of a passing threat this year, can still run the ball better than most any team FSU faced. Same for MSU. And UGA with Gurley is better on the ground than most every team FSU has faced.

[C'viewTiger 242]

last 4 games:

UTen- 197 ypg allowed: AU rushed for 444 or 2X opponent's avg.

UGa- 143 ypg allowed: AU rushed for 323 or 2X opponent's avg.

UAla- 91 ypg allowed: AU rushed for 296 or 3X opponent's avg.

Mizz- 119 ypg allowed: AU rushed for 545 or 4X opponent's avg.

I like that trend!

Lack of depth on Defense killed Mizzou, I expect FSU will have more depth.

It's true FSU has more depth, but the question is will it matter? It's hard to go from defending pro-style and spread offenses all year to having to defend a shotgun triple-option in 2 weeks. (Remember the players only get 15 practices).

Here is one example of why AU's offense is so hard to defend. Perhaps my favorite play of the season. Even bammers NFL secondary (who is very disciplined) fell for it. There's just no way to defend everything with AU's O:

If you "cheat" to spy the run, well you get burned with the pass. If you don't cheat to spy Marshall, well AU just gets 5-10 yards and moves the chains.

Not sure that I would call their secondary NFL. This is their weak spot this year. Remember, the experts were saying that we would have to pass on them to beat them. Also, FSU may have more depth than Mizzou but they have not played consistently. As we saw with Mizzou and bama, these guys will be winded by the 4th qtr. Just because the depth is there doesn't mean they will be able to rotate them in. They can't rotate their D guys in unless we rotate them. Our guys have out lasted opponents all year.

[texasautiger 0]

Another fun rushing stat--Auburn averages gaining 182 ypg more on the ground that their FBS opponents give up on average. Florida State averages holding opponents to 43 ypg less on the ground than their opponents gain. Advantage AU?

^This. In terms of percentages, AU rushed for 93% more than their opponent's allowed on average, while FSU held opponent's to 28% less than they averaged. Either way, that works out to about 275 yards for AU. I'd take that all day.

True, but who has FSU played that had a real rushing threat? I can name two teams that are good but not great: Boston College and Miami.

On the other hand pretty much every SEC team (especially in the west) has top tier RB's. LSU has some great ones who gashed AU pretty hard. Bammer, of course, has the best money can buy. Ole Miss, while more of a passing threat this year, can still run the ball better than most any team FSU faced. Same for MSU. And UGA with Gurley is better on the ground than most every team FSU has faced.

Yeah, FSU played three teams ranked in the top 60 (BC=19, Syr=37 & Nev=57). BC put 200 on FSU while being held to only 94 against Clemson! Of course, Villanova also held BC to only 128 :/ So, yeah, stats are sometimes misleading.

[RunInRed 16,438]

Excellent! Thanks for posting.

[AUloggerhead 2,241]

Another fun rushing stat--Auburn averages gaining 182 ypg more on the ground that their FBS opponents give up on average. Florida State averages holding opponents to 43 ypg less on the ground than their opponents gain. Advantage AU?

^This. In terms of percentages, AU rushed for 93% more than their opponent's allowed on average, while FSU held opponent's to 28% less than they averaged. Either way, that works out to about 275 yards for AU. I'd take that all day.

True, but who has FSU played that had a real rushing threat? I can name two teams that are good but not great: Boston College and Miami.

On the other hand pretty much every SEC team (especially in the west) has top tier RB's. LSU has some great ones who gashed AU pretty hard. Bammer, of course, has the best money can buy. Ole Miss, while more of a passing threat this year, can still run the ball better than most any team FSU faced. Same for MSU. And UGA with Gurley is better on the ground than most every team FSU has faced.

No doubt FSU's rushing defense stats were compiled against marginal rush offenses. However, their personnel are still blue-chip talent and you don't dominate/shut out offenses like they have without being good, regardless of the quality of the competition. I think Gus will give give them fits, but I'm not expecting another 500+ rushing production by AU in this game. It's going to be tight.

[slot canyon 1,341]

So does all this mean that we won the NC this year and don't have to play the game? Can I go out and wager all my savings? Interesting stats that I may revisit after the game.

[Eagle Eye 7]

No, we still have to play the game.

[AUinMS 0]

Another thing that has not been talked about is the fact that most of FSU's games were blowout wins. In those games, I would suspect that their opponents were trying to play catch up with the passing game and weren't running the ball much. Also, the long layoff benefits the defense. Somebody said that only 15 practices are allowed, but that does not include time in the classroom or film room. Their defense will be as prepared as they possibly can be. I expect we will be able to run the ball on them, but I don't think we will have a lot of long runs.

Great discussion. Thanks to the OP.

[AUpreacherman22 3,888]

Great stuff guys. One more thing to consider: FSU got huge leads on almost every team they faced. This forced teams to abandon the run in an attempt to get quick scores for a comeback.

[CJBas 4]

Honestly, I have no doubt they will pass on us but they won't be able to stop our run cold like they think. We will be playing a game of stops. Who can stop the other team enough to win. Which team stops itself too much and loses. I still think Auburn wins by 3 scores.

Anybody who thinks they can stop Auburn's running game cold is fooling themselves. From what I've read our O line matches up well against their D line and that will be critical.

My biggest concern is our D line. Can they geet to Winston. It was only when Johnson started putting pressure on Franklin that our D got control of their passing game. And I think FSU;s passing is better than MO's. If our D can put a dent in their passing then I think Auburn wins going away.

[AU-Allen 85]

Shoot out with Auburns "D" getting more stops than theirs. Just have to maintain the ball. I think we see a repeat of the Mizzou game.