ESPN article on running backs in the draft

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caddy's picture is on the spotlight story on the NFL page

here's the story for those of you that are too lazy to actually go to the page.

kinda long, and not exactly about the running backs, but it tells why there should be 3 taken in the top ten.

RB should be popular choice in draft

By Len Pasquarelli, ESPN.com

Len Pasquarelli Archive

In part because of the focus last season on physical play in the secondary, a reemphasis of the illegal contact rule that increased penalties in that category by a staggering 141 percent over 2003, it's a great time to be a running back.

At least, that is, if you're one of the several top tailback prospects in this year's NFL draft.

Say what? How do runners benefit from tighter enforcement of a rule that forbids defenders from mugging receivers more than five yards downfield?

Here's how: One of the byproducts of the NFL's "point of emphasis" on the illegal contact rule in 2004, a focus primarily designed to open up the passing game and promote scoring, was that average rushing yards per game increased as well. The league combined to rush for 233.2 yards per game, the second best average since 1987.

Even as offenses relied increasingly on the pass – and, given that receivers frolicked unchecked through secondaries with such new-found freedom, why not? – the league's runners still averaged 4.1 yards per carry. That's in line with the norm, between 3.9 and 4.2 yards per rush, of the last two decades. In a season when everyone assumed that the run would be de-emphasized a bit, there were 18 players who rushed for 1,000 yards, exactly the same number as in 2003. Teams averaged 13.0 rushing scores for the season, down just a hair from the 13.3 rushing touchdown average of the previous season.

Eight of the top 10 rushing teams went to the playoffs. Three of the four franchises in the conference championship games were top 10 running teams.

So in a season when footballs filled the air – a year in which Peyton Manning broke the record for touchdown passes, Daunte Culpepper had one of the top statistical seasons in history, and four quarterbacks posted efficiency ratings higher than 104.0 – the runners didn't exactly fade into the woodwork.

The statistics continue to skew toward the passing game, and, more than ever, throwing the ball wins Super Bowls. But some semblance of offensive balance is still essential, and so big-time tailbacks figure to be center stage in next month's draft.

Carnell "Cadillac" Williams led Auburn with 1,165 yards last season.Yeah, we know, if running backs were so important, why can't Indianapolis find a trade partner to take Edgerrin James off its hands, and why can't the Seattle Seahawks unload Shaun Alexander? Because teams are wary of investing $7 million-$8 million per year on veterans with worn tread worn on their tires. Because recent history has indicated that teams can unearth serviceable running backs in other places. Because there are cheaper alternatives.

Like in the draft, where some exceptional tailbacks are available, and where you can sign them to a fixed-cost contract for the next several seasons.

See where has our incredibly convoluted journey of the previous 10 paragraphs has taken us? To a pretty logical, if ponderously arrived at, conclusion.

Start with a premise that the emphasis of the illegal contact rule has affected the running game as well as passing offenses. Factor in the reality, hammered home in the first couple weeks of free agency, that teams will not invest heavily in veteran tailbacks, a position that bears the stigma of having the shortest average shelf life in the league. Toss in the fact that several franchises desperately need to upgrade at tailback, and that, fortuitously, the 2005 draft class includes several potential stud runners.

Voila!

Not since the 1989 lottery, which introduced the splendid Barry Sanders to the NFL, has there been a draft in which the top 10 choices included three running backs. In fact, there have been at total of only three top-10 tailbacks selected in the last five drafts. In the 15 drafts since that 1989 lottery, there were five occasions on which no tailbacks made it to the top 10. And that includes each of the last three years.

LaDainian Tomlinson of San Diego, the fifth overall selection in 2001, is the most recent top-10 tailback.

The first tailback selected in 2004, Steven Jackson of the St. Louis Rams, didn't go off the board until the 24th pick. In 2003, Willis McGahee, the top back that year, was chosen by the Buffalo Bills in the 23rd spot. Cleveland's William Green, the top back in the 2002 draft and a player soon to be released by the Browns, was the No. 16 choice. Since 1989, there has been an average of just one top-10 tailback per year, and 3.3 first-round running backs overall.

"It's not as if the position has been devalued," said one AFC personnel director whose team hopes to land a running back in the second or third round this year. "But teams have become a little wary of spending first-round money on the position. Especially when it's been demonstrated, by teams like Denver almost every year it seems, that you can find very good runners outside the first round. Plus, the last few years, there just hasn't been that 'must-have' guy like Tomlinson, or Edgerrin [James] or [Ricky] Williams. So, yeah, there's been a little bit of a drought, I suppose."

The confluence of components this year, however, means it could be raining tailbacks in the early stages of the first round.

For openers, there is the tailback big three, a trio that includes the Auburn tandem of Ronnie Brown and Carnell "Cadillac" Williams, along with former University of Texas workhorse Cedric Benson. And there are at least four teams with top-10 selections, and no fewer than three franchises that have the tailback position at or near the top spot on their draft wish lists. It is a combination of factors that could create a perfect storm of sorts for the tailback position.

It is doubtful the San Francisco 49ers, who own the top overall choice and likely will be forced to exercise the pick since their trade-down options seem nonexistent, will select a running back, although it's still an outside possibility. But with the No. 2 pick overall, the Miami Dolphins, jilted by Ricky Williams last summer, certainly could pluck one of the premier running back prospects.

Were that to occur, it would represent the highest draft spot for a runner since Cincinnati chose Ki-Jana Carter with the first overall selection in 1995.

"I think you're going to see all three of us in the top 10," said Auburn's splendid Brown, whose outstanding workouts at the combine sessions last month likely elevated him to the top perch among tailback prospects. "We've all got different styles, but all of us are great backs, I feel. And, hey, you've always got to be able to run the ball, right?"

True enough.

So look for three tailbacks to be among the first 10 names announced by commissioner Paul Tagliabue on April 23, and then a cadre of runners to follow in subsequent rounds. And credit the big run on runners, somewhat ironically, to some extent on the league's move to open up the passing game last season.