Some dudes picking their Final Fours

[Grumps 3,704]

 

[arktiger1975 553]

Purdue won't make it. Perennial choke artists, and lack of athleticism in the backcourt will rear its ugly head again. Other picks are solid.

Edited December 22, 2023 by arktiger1975

[TexasTiger 13,053]

4 hours ago, Grumps said:

 

Like the first guy.

[AURex 2,036]

Waiting to see if Auburn can beat any decent team. Sorry, I love my Tigers. But to date, they played only one ranked team (Baylor) and lost. As for every other team ....... waiting. I love my Auburn Tigers BB, but so far I have not seen greatness.

 

[NCAubs 378]

22 hours ago, AURex said:

Waiting to see if Auburn can beat any decent team. Sorry, I love my Tigers. But to date, they played only one ranked team (Baylor) and lost. As for every other team ....... waiting. I love my Auburn Tigers BB, but so far I have not seen greatness.

 

Not greatness but potential.  They have dominated everyone they have beaten.  The anomaly of the App State game obviously indicates work to be done but I like the potential of what I’ve seen.  

[LPTiger 5,173]

13 hours ago, NCAubs said:

 The anomaly of the App State game obviously indicates work to be done but I like the potential of what I’ve seen.  

The App State game was so odd...   After it, App State continued on a little run where they beat their next 3 teams (one by over 60 points) and then lost to UNC Asheville by 13 -- a team we beat by 25....

[ShocksMyBrain 9,379]

6 hours ago, LPTiger said:

The App State game was so odd...   After it, App State continued on a little run where they beat their next 3 teams (one by over 60 points) and then lost to UNC Asheville by 13 -- a team we beat by 25....

That’s just early season basketball. We played at their house, they were looking to notch a win over an SEC team. They clearly wanted to win more than we did. Our Kenpom ranking is in the top 10, compared to an undefeated team like Ole Miss who’s sitting at like 90 something…but still cracked the AP 25. 

Edited December 23, 2023 by ShocksMyBrain

[AUDub 11,184]

15 hours ago, ShocksMyBrain said:

That’s just early season basketball. We played at their house, they were looking to notch a win over an SEC team. They clearly wanted to win more than we did. Our Kenpom ranking is in the top 10, compared to an undefeated team like Ole Miss who’s sitting at like 90 something…but still cracked the AP 25. 

The polls are nothing more than a popularity contest and ultimately meaningless. NET is the final arbiter of the tournament, and right now Ole Miss should not be in the field.

[arktiger1975 553]

On 12/23/2023 at 5:32 PM, ShocksMyBrain said:

That’s just early season basketball. We played at their house, they were looking to notch a win over an SEC team. They clearly wanted to win more than we did. Our Kenpom ranking is in the top 10, compared to an undefeated team like Ole Miss who’s sitting at like 90 something…but still cracked the AP 25. 

I really think Ole Miss is a paper tiger who will get exposed once league play starts. Beard scheduled a bunch of cupcakes early to ensure that he got off to a good start. And they have been incredibly lucky in some games vs bad teams. They could very easily be 7-5 with about 4 bad losses now. As someone posted on the Kentucky forum, Ole Miss has to be one of the worst 12-0 teams in college basketball history. They remind me a lot of LSU last year- start out like 12-2, then go 2-16 in the conference. I don't think Ole Miss will go 2-16, but I could easily see them finishing between 5-13 and 7-11.

Edited December 25, 2023 by arktiger1975

[arktiger1975 553]

13 hours ago, AUDub said:

The polls are nothing more than a popularity contest and ultimately meaningless. NET is the final arbiter of the tournament, and right now Ole Miss should not be in the field.

Exactly! They have had a handful of extremely close calls vs dreadful teams, many at home. 

[TeamZero77 1,785]

On 12/24/2023 at 10:58 PM, arktiger1975 said:

I really think Ole Miss is a paper tiger who will get exposed once league play starts. Beard scheduled a bunch of cupcakes early to ensure that he got off to a good start. And they have been incredibly lucky in some games vs bad teams. They could very easily be 7-5 with about 4 bad losses now. As someone posted on the Kentucky forum, Ole Miss has to be one of the worst 12-0 teams in college basketball history. They remind me a lot of LSU last year- start out like 12-2, then go 2-16 in the conference. I don't think Ole Miss will go 2-16, but I could easily see them finishing between 5-13 and 7-11.

Is basketball not the same as football where the schedules are made years in advance? Does Chris Beard actually make the schedule? He was just hired this offseason. 

He seems to have made a difference so far because the other Ole Miss teams would've lost those games you mentioned. I remember he took Texas Tech to the 2018 Elite Eight and the next year he took them to the National Title game. Bobby Knight wasn't even doing that in Lubbock. I think Ole Miss will be a problem once Beard gets a couple years to recruit. I think he has been to the NCAA tourney every year he has coached or close to it. 

I'm not sure who the Ole Miss AD is but he needs a raise because their baseball team won the national championship in 2022, men's basketball is undefeated and if their football team wins tomorrow it will be the programs first 11 win season ever. Not bad for a Mississippi school.

Edited December 29, 2023 by TeamZero77

[arktiger1975 553]

1 hour ago, TeamZero77 said:

Is basketball not the same as football where the schedules are made years in advance? Does Chris Beard actually make the schedule? He was just hired this offseason. 

He seems to have made a difference so far because the other Ole Miss teams would've lost those games you mentioned. I remember he took Texas Tech to the 2018 Elite Eight and the next year he took them to the National Title game. Bobby Knight wasn't even doing that in Lubbock. I think Ole Miss will be a problem once Beard gets a couple years to recruit. I think he has been to the NCAA tourney every year he has coached or close to it. 

I'm not sure who the Ole Miss AD is but he needs a raise because their baseball team won the national championship in 2022, men's basketball is undefeated and if their football team wins tomorrow it will be the programs first 11 win season ever. Not bad for a Mississippi school.

If Beard has any success, he won't be in Oxford long. The advanced metrics don't like Ole Miss either- around 80 in KenPom, and the high 50's in the NET. They are projected to go about 7-11 in SEC play.

[NCAubs 378]

22 hours ago, TeamZero77 said:

Is basketball not the same as football where the schedules are made years in advance? Does Chris Beard actually make the schedule? He was just hired this offseason. 

He seems to have made a difference so far because the other Ole Miss teams would've lost those games you mentioned. I remember he took Texas Tech to the 2018 Elite Eight and the next year he took them to the National Title game. Bobby Knight wasn't even doing that in Lubbock. I think Ole Miss will be a problem once Beard gets a couple years to recruit. I think he has been to the NCAA tourney every year he has coached or close to it. 

I'm not sure who the Ole Miss AD is but he needs a raise because their baseball team won the national championship in 2022, men's basketball is undefeated and if their football team wins tomorrow it will be the programs first 11 win season ever. Not bad for a Mississippi school.

Football schedules aren’t even made years in advance these days.   Welcome to the 21st century, Boomer. 
 

I agree with your point about the Ole Miss AD.  He is making some waves in Oxford, which is impressive, given its proximity to Biloxi. 

[NCAubs 378]

20 hours ago, arktiger1975 said:

If Beard has any success, he won't be in Oxford long. The advanced metrics don't like Ole Miss either- around 80 in KenPom, and the high 50's in the NET. They are projected to go about 7-11 in SEC play.

Maybe we could let him have a modicum of success there and then hire him to succeed Bruce.  It worked in football once.  
 

On a slightly more serious note, who does take the helm when Bruce decides to retire in three, five, ten, twenty years?  Is Stephen being groomed for that or do we hire from outside?

[arktiger1975 553]

39 minutes ago, NCAubs said:

Maybe we could let him have a modicum of success there and then hire him to succeed Bruce.  It worked in football once.  
 

On a slightly more serious note, who does take the helm when Bruce decides to retire in three, five, ten, twenty years?  Is Stephen being groomed for that or do we hire from outside?

I think a lot of that depends on how the program is when Bruce retires. If the program is still cooking, Stephen would be a serious candidate. But if we were to fall off a bit, we would likely look elsewhere.

[JwgreDeux 1,279]

Not to suggest we are worthy of final four consideration at this point, but we should be favored in all of our remaining games but two (using some the current metrics standings). IF the season played out anywhere close to that, we would be a 3 seed or better. 

[AURex 2,036]

I don't think Illinois will be a final four contender this year. They just lost their superstar guard arrested for rape. We will see how they play without him when Illinois butts heads with Purdue this weekend.

 

[KansasTiger 3,256]

On 12/30/2023 at 12:05 PM, NCAubs said:

Maybe we could let him have a modicum of success there and then hire him to succeed Bruce.  It worked in football once.  
 

On a slightly more serious note, who does take the helm when Bruce decides to retire in three, five, ten, twenty years?  Is Stephen being groomed for that or do we hire from outside?

I've heard it's closer to that 3 year mark than you'd think...

Theyre definitely grooming Stephen, though I think he needs to get experience elsewhere first before being a real candidate imo. I love the idea of hiring Beard in a few years. The man can coach and he's young.

[KansasTiger 3,256]

3 hours ago, JwgreDeux said:

Not to suggest we are worthy of final four consideration at this point, but we should be favored in all of our remaining games but two (using some the current metrics standings). IF the season played out anywhere close to that, we would be a 3 seed or better. 

I'm guessing you're using the T-Rank for that projection? 

Can someone help me understand the computer's love for Alabama? #3 at 8-5? I get they have a few close losses to good teams, but every good team they've played they lost.

[arktiger1975 553]

51 minutes ago, KansasTiger said:

I'm guessing you're using the T-Rank for that projection? 

Can someone help me understand the computer's love for Alabama? #3 at 8-5? I get they have a few close losses to good teams, but every good team they've played they lost.

I think it is because they have been close in most of their games vs highly ranked teams, and really blown out the bad teams. KenPom and NET rely heavily on margin of victory. But I agree, #3 is way too high. They have a good team (especially offensively, defensively not so much). But the bottom line is they haven't been winning the games versus the better teams.

[arktiger1975 553]

1 hour ago, KansasTiger said:

I'm guessing you're using the T-Rank for that projection? 

Can someone help me understand the computer's love for Alabama? #3 at 8-5? I get they have a few close losses to good teams, but every good team they've played they lost.

I think they lack athleticism in spots, especially on the perimeter. They don't guard the ball very well, as you can see in the below clips. 

 

[KansasTiger 3,256]

2 hours ago, arktiger1975 said:

I think it is because they have been close in most of their games vs highly ranked teams, and really blown out the bad teams. KenPom and NET rely heavily on margin of victory. But I agree, #3 is way too high. They have a good team (especially offensively, defensively not so much). But the bottom line is they haven't been winning the games versus the better teams.

I just dont understand them outranking teams that beat them. Makes zero sense. Especially when you start looking at the whole picture. 

Edited January 3 by KansasTiger

[AUDub 11,184]

13 hours ago, KansasTiger said:

I just dont understand them outranking teams that beat them. Makes zero sense. Especially when you start looking at the whole picture. 

KenPom and T-Rank are not really “rankings” in the traditional sense. NET does try to integrate résumé but that’s a function of it trying to be a middle ground between advanced analytics like KenPom and pure résumé metrics like RPI.

Advanced analytics really don't give a crap about scores. At the end of the day, they just look at AdjOE - AdjDE to come up with AdjEM and rate the teams by that metric. 

Edited January 3 by AUDub

[AUDub 11,184]

As for the reason the models love Bama, it’s because they are good offensively. *very* good. They have trouble stopping people though, which is directly tied to Bediako leaving and them having 0 ability to limit teams that can attack the rim. 

Edited January 3 by AUDub

[NCAubs 378]

20 hours ago, AUDub said:

KenPom and T-Rank are not really “rankings” in the traditional sense. NET does try to integrate résumé but that’s a function of it trying to be a middle ground between advanced analytics like KenPom and pure résumé metrics like RPI.

Advanced analytics really don't give a crap about scores. At the end of the day, they just look at AdjOE - AdjDE to come up with AdjEM and rate the teams by that metric. 

Can you speak English for the ones of us that forgot Fortran?