N. Korea tests first nuke

[Tiger Al 0]

LINK

[Captain Liger 0]

Not good. Not good at all. Guess the war in Iraq is over.

[otterinbham 0]

This will make Iraq look like a walk in the park. The draft is coming.

[otterinbham 0]

Of course, some observers see this test as heartening sign that the NoKo's are running out of options, especially now that China is showing signs of cutting off support. Below is an analysis below from a international security website. The chief question remaining is this: What will Kim do with his back against the wall? I don't think anybody knows the answer:

North Korea has announced via several state-run press agencies that it will shortly conduct a nuclear test. What is going on? What should the US do?

Why This Is Happening Now

American policy against North Korea is working. That policy, in a nutshell, is this: use all methods short of war to harm the economy of North Korea, making it impossible for that government to raise revenue from illicit activities, and thereby more and more difficult to retain power or fund its nuclear ambitions. This creates cascading effects that work in the favor of the US: the possibility of a North Korean collapse forces China and South Korea to consider changing their stances in the six-party talks, making it more likely that the six will agree on a unified plan to de-nuke the peninsula, and that North Korea will have no choice but to accept.

The on-the-ground keystone of this policy is the Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI). An article in the Times of London over the summer described these efforts in more detail than had previously been reported:

Intelligence agencies, navies and air forces from at least 13 nations are quietly co-operating in a "secret war" against Pyongyang and Tehran.

It has so far involved interceptions of North Korean ships at sea, US agents prowling the waterfronts in Taiwan, multinational naval and air surveillance missions out of Singapore, investigators poring over the books of dubious banks in the former Portuguese colony of Macau and a fleet of planes and ships eavesdropping on the "hermit kingdom" in the waters north of Japan.

This pressure has slowly been tightening a multi-lateral, multi-pronged grip on North Korean power. And it's about to get even tighter. The International Herald Tribune notes that "since last September, the U.S. Treasury Department has persuaded 24 banks in China, Mongolia, Singapore, Vietnam and other countries to shut down North Korean accounts. Last month, Australia and Japan ordered their financial institutions to block transactions by companies suspected of having links to North Korea's weapons programs."

Got that? A new tightening of the screws from last month. And there's even more. The South Korean paper Chosun Ilbo reported last month that "The U.S. has told partners in stalled six-country talks on North Korea's nuclear program that it will take punitive measures against the North under the UN Security Council resolution condemning Pyongyang's July missile tests, officials say."

And there's even more. The same paper, in another article last month, reported that "the U.S. recently sent out official dispatches from its legations around the world informing UN member nations of the steps it will soon take against the North, and asked for their cooperation in adapting similar measures. The U.S. has included stiff measures to stop the purchase and sale of weapons of mass destruction, searches of North Korean vessels, and financial sanctions. Washington apparently made it clear it is determined to crack down on any trade that looks likely to be related to WMDs."

So why is North Korea announcing a nuclear test? Because last month the United States made it clear the world over that the measures which have circumscribed North Korean power are only going to be increased and made more painful still.

Consider: did Pakistan or India announce their nuclear tests beforehand back in the 1990s? No. Then why is North Korea? Because Kim hopes to get something. This is his way of bargaining. Announcing a nuclear test is meant to goad the US into overreaction, split the members of the six-party talks, and bring the entire issue into the front pages of newspapers, gathering publicity for his cause. So what should the US do?

The Game Plan

When the North prepped to test seven ballistic missiles this summer, two former Clinton administration officials issued a breathless warning: "if North Korea persists in its launch preparations, the United States should immediately make clear its intention to strike and destroy the North Korean Taepodong missile before it can be launched." Within their warning was an easy dismissal of the idea that such an act would start a regional war.

Instead, let's take a more calculating, sober view. These should be the steps forward as this crisis plays out:

Reinforce success. The Proliferation Security Initiative is working and is gradually causing a collapse of North Korean state power. Let's reinforce success by adding more money and capabilities to this effort to continue to speed the collapse of the North Korean state and force them to abandon their weapons program. Let's acknowledge that our current course is driving the North Koreans bonkers -- and then just ratchet up the pressure all the more, absolutely unfazed by their threats.

Add international legitimacy to the PSI. The PSI is basically an ad hoc group of nations that are voluntarily assisting the US in enforcing its own sanctions. UN Resolution 1695, enacted earlier this summer, "bans all UN member states from selling material or technology for missiles or weapons of mass destruction to North Korea and from receiving missiles, banned weapons or technology from Pyongyang." That's a good start. But why not take this up a notch, and offer a new resolution stating that any member nation that does engage in such trade with North Korea will immediately be referred to the Security Council for sanctions?

Encourage Japan not to go nuclear - yet. The only way that the six-parties will succeed in getting North Korea to abandon its nuclear program is if they all act in concert. When the North threatens a nuclear test, one of its hopes is that some of the six will overreact. A Japanese announcement to seek nuclear weapons would comprise one such overreaction, especially given the American ability to offer Japan assurance of a nuclear deterrent under its own nuclear umbrella. If Japan announces an intention to pursue nuclear weapons, then the six party talks may dissolve completely. It's very likely that South Korea and China see Japan as more of a threat than North Korea. Indeed, It should come as no surprise that the North made their announcement only days before the new Japanese Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, is scheduled to visit both South Korea and China. The President might call him before he goes and read a line or two of Kipling: "If you can keep your head when all about you/ Are losing theirs..."

Begin a conversation domestically about a new nuclear doctrine. The Bush Doctrine, announced at West Point in 2002, promulgated a policy of preventive war should the US be threatened by terrorists or rogue states developing weapons of mass destruction. This doctrine needs a corollary of some kind, inspired by the principles of both non-proliferation and deterrence, which sets certain triggers for preemptive nuclear strikes against states that knowingly or not pass nuclear weapons material or know-how to terrorist organizations or other states. Elaborating such a position is beyond the scope of this article, but it's clear that no matter how robust policies like the PSI are, they are still largely defensive in nature, and at some point nuclear weapons, materials or knowhow could slip through. It would be best to attempt to curb this behavior from the get-go by offering severe disincentives for engaging in it.

Such a policy might sound drastic: destroy a state for shipping some nuclear materials? But at its formulation, mutually assured destruction was no less drastic and no less frightening. Consider reports that Iranian officials were present at Pyongyang's missile launches this summer. There's no reason to think they won't be eager observers of North Korea's test. It is just such exchanges in the shadows that most threaten the world's civilization and it's time to develop a policy that addresses them.

[LegalEagle 22]

Sounds like NK is about as scared of us as Iran.

The good news is that we have other countries on our side - I hope we don't blow it like we did w/ Iraq.

NK makes it's money selling instruments of war. I assume they use ships a great deal to transport these items to the Middle East, etc. I'd like to see UN forces board every NK ship on high seas and confiscate any weaponry. Do they have any other means of making money? That plan would likely kill two birds with one stone. Every US ship who boards a NK ship should spray paint "Remember the Pueblo" on the side of the NK ship. Screw those commie b*****ds!

[otterinbham 0]

Well, being the amateur foreign policy, I worry that there are only two ways this crisis will play out: 1) A NK military coup or 2) War.

Frankly, anybody with a brain should be really nervous right now. Because the NoKos are crazy, and are capable of doing things not in their national interest, such as survival.

[otterinbham 0]

A further disquieting note:

"[uN Ambassador] Bolton told the Security Council meeting that Washington would view a North Korean attack on South Korea or Japan as an attack on the United States, U.N. diplomats said, speaking on condition of anonymity because the meeting was closed. The United States has defense agreements with Tokyo and Seoul, and thousands of U.S. troops are stationed in both countries."

Obviously, our defense agreements have been public record for decades. But the fact that we're citing these agreements at this juncture may indicate further developments.

Pray for peace.

[Tigermike 3,065]

I am a little confused, Al titled this thread "N. Korea tests first nuke". But the article only says "North Korea's claim Monday that it had tested a nuclear weapon triggered international rebuke". So far at this point in time, I have not seen any proof that they actually did conduct the test. On the news (CNN, I think) last night, they said there had been no seismic indications of a nuclear test. All the news accounts on the internet are only talking about the North Korean claim.

So is the world in an uproar over the words or the actual test? Is Kim Jong II more unstable than Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad? Neither country should have nuclear weapons as far as I am concerned and both need a bullet in the head. Not because they are crazy but because of what they have done to the people of their countries. And in the case of Ahmadinejad, what he has done to people of other countries as well.

[otterinbham 0]

I am a little confused, Al titled this thread "N. Korea tests first nuke". But the article only says "North Korea's claim Monday that it had tested a nuclear weapon triggered international rebuke". So far at this point in time, I have not seen any proof that they actually did conduct the test. On the news (CNN, I think) last night, they said there had been no seismic indications of a nuclear test. All the news accounts on the internet are only talking about the North Korean claim.

So is the world in an uproar over the words or the actual test? Is Kim Jong II more unstable than Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad? Neither country should have nuclear weapons as far as I am concerned and both need a bullet in the head. Not because they are crazy but because of what they have done to the people of their countries. And in the case of Ahmadinejad, what he has done to people of other countries as well.

Actually, several independent sources in several different countries verified a seismic tremor consistent with an underground nuclear test, at the place and time when the NoKos said they would test a device. It would have to be a staggering coincidence if this were a natural seismic event.

[Tigermike 3,065]

Thanks for the update Otter, like I said, so far I have not seen anything.

[LegalEagle 22]

The blast was only about a half a kiloton, so they could have faked it with conventional explosives or the test could have "fissled." We are testing the air and will know soon.

[Tigermike 3,065]

The blast was only about a half a kiloton, so they could have faked it with conventional explosives or the test could have "fissled." We are testing the air and will know soon.

That is what I was getting at. There has been speculation that they may have faked it.

What good would that do them?

[otterinbham 0]

The blast was only about a half a kiloton, so they could have faked it with conventional explosives or the test could have "fissled." We are testing the air and will know soon.

That is what I was getting at. There has been speculation that they may have faked it.

What good would that do them?

Well, that's the problem. We are dealng with somebody who is utterly irrational. Heck, at least we could negotiate with the Soviets because they could always be counted upon to act in their own self interests. No such luck with the lunatics in Pyongyang.

[LegalEagle 22]

If she said she did, even if she was faking it, don't you have a right to rely upon her statement?

If Little Ill says he nuked, then we have a right to rely upon his statement and take action accordingly.

[AURaptor 1,128]

This will make Iraq look like a walk in the park. The draft is coming.

Democrats were warning us the draft was coming before the '04 election. 2 yrs later, no draft. What's the hold up? Dems waiting until they control the House, THEN they'll instate the draft ?

[AURaptor 1,128]

The blast was only about a half a kiloton, so they could have faked it with conventional explosives or the test could have "fissled." We are testing the air and will know soon.

Not possible to 'fake' a nuke test, so say the rock heads ( Geologist ). A nuclear detonation underground registers as an intense burst of energy, taking far less time than would a conventional TNT explosion. Testing our own devices underground has given the US scientist plenty of known examples to compare what the NK's exploded under their ground. Haven't seen the evidence myself, but word is that it was indeed a small nuke.

[MDM4AU 336]

Not to say NK isn't dangerous but I don't think NK has any desire to use the nukes per se. I think NK is much like the Soviets of the Cold War. I think Kim Jong Il wants to be powerful. One way for him to have power is to have the nukes he can sell to saaaayyy...Iran.

Iran and Amadinijhad (sp) want to bring back the 12th Imam and instigate Armageddon. They will die trying. That is what makes them so dangerous.

Regardless of what anyone thinks NK wants to do with these weapons, I think it's safe to say this is not a good thing that they have them. I don't have much faith (if any) in the UN getting anything done.

[LegalEagle 22]

The blast was only about a half a kiloton, so they could have faked it with conventional explosives or the test could have "fissled." We are testing the air and will know soon.

Not possible to 'fake' a nuke test, so say the rock heads ( Geologist ). A nuclear detonation underground registers as an intense burst of energy, taking far less time than would a conventional TNT explosion. Testing our own devices underground has given the US scientist plenty of known examples to compare what the NK's exploded under their ground. Haven't seen the evidence myself, but word is that it was indeed a small nuke.

Well, you sure know more than the intelligence community. From today's CNN.com:

"Doubts even remained Tuesday that Pyongyang conducted a nuclear test.

That's because Western measurements showed an explosion equivalent to about 500 metric tons of TNT, which a senior U.S. intelligence community official said was unusually small for a nuclear blast.

By comparison, nuclear tests in 1998 by India and Pakistan were about 24 to 50 times as powerful, according to the Federation of American Scientists. (Nuclear nations)

Despite those doubts, North Korea's claim of a nuclear test may be enough to bring U.N. sanctions. U.N. Security Council members will resume closed-door discussions Tuesday of U.S.-proposed sanctions."

I didn't make my comment from whole cloth. I was restating what the "experts" w/o rocks in their heads said on TV. If it is so easy to tell, and a copy of the seismograph (sp) was posted on the CNN web page yesterday, why is there remaining doubt?

Hey, good news is they are gonna fire a nuke missle now, so at least then we'll know, huh?