Jump to content

The real magic number for Democrats is 1,627


RunInRed

Recommended Posts

Courtesy of:

www.ObamaIsWinning.com

In 2008, 3,253 delegates will be chosen through caucuses and primaries to represent Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton at the Democratic National Convention.

Once one of the candidates has won a majority of those democratically selected delegates (also known as pledged delegates), the only way his or her opponent could win the nomination is with the support of the 796 unelected, unaccountable superdelegates -- in the process overturning the judgment of the voters.

50%+1 of 3,253 is 1,627. That's the real magic number.

Once a candidate has 1,627 pledged delegates, he or she will win the nomination -- unless the superdelegates step in and reverse the decision of the voters. (Can any one really imagine the super delegates going against the popular vote? There would be a complete revolt in the party if this happened. I just don't see it.)

::

At present, CNN estimates 986 pledged delegates for Obama and 924 for Clinton. (John Edwards also has 26.)

That means there are still 1,317 pledged delegates left to be awarded.

Obama must win at least 48.7% of them to hit his magic number.

Clinton must win 53.4% of the remaining delegates to her magic number. In other words, even if Clinton won 53% of the remaining delegates, she would still fall short of a democratically elected majority.

(The numbers aren't perfect mirrors of each other because John Edwards won 26 delegates.)

::

Pledged Delegates

oiw-delegates.png

Popular Vote

oiw-popvote.png

oiw-statetable.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites





If I change "Pujols" to "Obama" how many of these shirts could I sell?

mancrushpujols.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8,391,934

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

×
×
  • Create New...