Rasmussen poll: McCain leads Obama by 15% in AL

[WinCrimson 61]

The gap between John McCain and Barack Obama in Alabama has been cut nearly in half. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds McCain ahead 51% to 36%. Though McCain still has a solid advantage, his fifteen-point lead in the Yellowhammer State is down from the twenty-eight point lead he enjoyed last month. This is consistent with other polling in Republican leaning states showing Obama closing the gap since clinching the Democratic Presidential Nomination.

On one hand, you've got a comfortable lead for McCain in this reliably red state. No chance of it switching. On the other, there's a noticeable improvement in Obama's numbers. and I see potential for him to run as well as Gore provided his campaign has a strong GOTV effort in Birmingham & Montgomery.

Also, there's no way that only 80% of Republicans go for McCain and only 67% of Democrats go for Obama. If 98% of AL Republicans voted for Bush and 93% of AL Democrats broke for Kerry, there's no way we're going to see that amount of in-house dissent.

McCain leads 51-36%

[BamaGrad03 0]

There's no way a democrat wins in Alabama.

I think (could be wrong), no county in Alabama that isn't named montgomery has voted for a democrat since Jimmy Carter.

Obama won't win this state. Nor do I see him carrying other southern states. Maybe Florida...but we all know that isn't a southern state.

[TheDrewYouKnew 3]

There's no way a democrat wins in Alabama.

I think (could be wrong), no county in Alabama that isn't named montgomery has voted for a democrat since Jimmy Carter.

Obama won't win this state. Nor do I see him carrying other southern states. Maybe Florida...but we all know that isn't a southern state.

Well this election I'm gonna add one Florida vote to the good guys! Just doing my part. Don't want to waste it in Alabama again.

[lukeduke 8]

There's no way a democrat wins in Alabama.

I think (could be wrong), no county in Alabama that isn't named montgomery has voted for a democrat since Jimmy Carter.

Obama won't win this state. Nor do I see him carrying other southern states. Maybe Florida...but we all know that isn't a southern state.

Lowndes, Macon, Perry and Wilcox. These are all counties with a majority of the population being black that voted for kerry in 2004 and I would expect Obama to win in these counties this year

Results

[WinCrimson 61]

Kerry won more counties than the ones you posted, lukeduke, and every county he won was not majority black.

Clinton won many counties, Gore won his share, and Kerry won more than just Montgomery. Hell, even Mondale won Jackson, Colbert, and a few more.

I believe what BG was thinking of was that the state as a whole hasn't voted for a Democrat since Carter.

Clinton actually did very well. Here's the map from 1992.

http://www.uselectionatlas.org <---- Very good site for past campaign results and voting patterns

[au2004ece 30]

Kerry won more counties than the ones you posted, lukeduke, and every county he won was not majority black.

Clinton won many counties, Gore won his share, and Kerry won more than just Montgomery. Hell, even Mondale won Jackson, Colbert, and a few more.

I believe what BG was thinking of was that the state as a whole hasn't voted for a Democrat since Carter.

Clinton actually did very well. Here's the map from 1992.

http://www.uselectionatlas.org <---- Very good site for past campaign results and voting patterns

That map is backwards. It has the Republican counties in blue and the democrat counties in red.

[RunInRed 16,454]

This coincides with the poll I posted the other day from Mississippi, which showed McCain up only 6. I think Obama will win Virginia, maybe Florida, and could be competitive in GA and NC.

[lukeduke 8]

Kerry won more counties than the ones you posted, lukeduke, and every county he won was not majority black.

Clinton won many counties, Gore won his share, and Kerry won more than just Montgomery. Hell, even Mondale won Jackson, Colbert, and a few more.

I believe what BG was thinking of was that the state as a whole hasn't voted for a Democrat since Carter.

Clinton actually did very well. Here's the map from 1992.

http://www.uselectionatlas.org <---- Very good site for past campaign results and voting patterns

You're somewhat right. I forgot the following counties -- Dallas, Greene, Hale, Montgomery (it was originally stated that Democrats have won Montgomery), Russell, Sumter.

Since Montgomery was not part of my argument, the only one I missed that is not majority black is Russell county and the victory there was by 0.2%. Throwing Montgomery into the mix, the demographics for white and black are .27% different with a slight white majority. The victory there was also only 0.8% of the vote.

[Tigermike 3,046]

This coincides with the poll I posted the other day from Mississippi, which showed McCain up only 6. I think Obama will win Virginia, maybe Florida, and could be competitive in GA and NC.

You are dreaming about Florida. Too many retired and active duty military. McCain will also take Georgia.

[RunInRed 16,454]

This coincides with the poll I posted the other day from Mississippi, which showed McCain up only 6. I think Obama will win Virginia, maybe Florida, and could be competitive in GA and NC.

You are dreaming about Florida. Too many retired and active duty military. McCain will also take Georgia.

You do realize where the population is in FL don't you? A: South Florida, where the demographics are overwhemingly Democratic. Latest poll from South Florida:

A new Zogby International poll shows Barack Obama sitting on a 16-point lead over John McCain in South Florida.

In a sign that Democrat Barack Obama will be competitive in the nation's largest swing state, he is beating Republican John McCain comfortably in South Florida and has a slight edge among Hispanics, according to a new Miami Herald poll.

Obama is ahead 46-30 percent over McCain in Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties in the survey of 807 people conducted by Zogby International. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

''Obama's 16-point lead in South Florida could springboard him to make it a competitive race statewide,'' said pollster John Zogby. ``I really think Florida is in play.''

About 24 percent of South Floridians favor another candidate or haven't made up their minds -- a large group that could tip the race in the coming months.

Obama was perceived as being behind in Florida because he did not campaign in the state for nine months and lost the Democratic primary to Hillary Clinton. But two statewide polls released last week showed him with a narrow edge over McCain. The Zogby poll was conducted June 18-20, just as Obama's first television ads in South Florida went on the air.

South Florida traditionally votes Democratic, but Obama's lead in Miami-Dade is wider than the narrow margin of victory posted by 2004 Democratic nominee John Kerry.

HISPANIC VOTE

Among Hispanics in the three counties, Obama leads McCain 40 to 35 percent. Until the tide started to turn against the Republican Party in 2006, Hispanics in Florida have long favored the GOP.

''That shows the depth of anger that Hispanics are feeling toward the Republican Party,'' Zogby said. ``If Democrats walk away with 65 percent of the Hispanic vote in Florida, that will be almost insurmountable for the Republican party.''

Obama's lead in the poll suggests he is winning over supporters of Hillary Clinton, who won handily in South Florida and in the Hispanic community in the Jan. 29 presidential primary. McCain won the Hispanic vote in the Republican primary.

''When Hispanic voters have an opportunity to focus on McCain's record on issues like education, economic development, free trade and immigration, the candidate who best represents the Hispanic community is McCain,'' said Ana Carbonell, a Miami member of the McCain campaign's steering committee. ``The campaign plans an aggressive effort to reach out to Hispanic voters, especially in Florida.''

ELIAN ISSUE

But Democrats point to signs that the Hispanic community's political stripes are changing. A protest Saturday outside Obama's speech in Miami drew only about three dozen people, mostly older Cuban-Americans. The group attacked Obama for surrounding himself with two high-level advisors who helped send Cuban rafter Elián González back to his father in Cuba.

When the custody battle raged eight years ago, Cuban-Americans rose up in droves. ''We understand the Elián González issue is something that passed, and that it was not Obama's fault,'' said Ramón Saúl Sánchez of the Miami-based Democracy Movement, who tussled with the federal agents who seized Elián from his relatives' home in Little Havana. ``People are giving more weight to other issues, like lifting the travel ban.''

Carbonell said younger Cuban-Americans may not have attended the protest but were buzzing about Obama's advisors on Spanish-language blogs. Of the Cuban-Americans in the Herald poll, a majority support McCain.

Obama has called for lifting the Bush administration's restrictions on Cuban-Americans who want to visit family on the island. McCain has criticized Obama for wanting to ease sanctions and for his willingness to meet with the Cuban government in the hope of sparking democratic reform.

''A lot of Cuban Americans are very disappointed with President Bush,'' Sanchez said. ``If McCain says he's going to follow the same policies as Bush, that says a lot.''

INDEPENDENT EDGE

The survey also showed Obama leading among independents voters by 33-20 percent, with the rest favoring other candidates or undecided. Both Obama and McCain received strong support from independent voters in the primaries.

Obama's three-day swing through Florida last month helped him take in nearly $1.6 million in May -- more than twice what he raised statewide in April, according to reports filed last week with the Federal Election Commission. McCain collected $1.4 million in May, compared to nearly $1.1 million in April.

http://www.miamiherald.com/political-curre...ory/580781.html

Also, it's worth noting that Florida went for the good guys in 1996, so for you to suggest that Obama being competitive there is a dream is more than a wishful stretch of yours.

As for Georgia, if McCain loses that it's over...that is a very Red state but Clinton was able to paint it Blue in 1992.

[Tigermike 3,046]

Also, it's worth noting that Florida went for the good guys in 1996, so for you to suggest that Obama being competitive there is a dream is more than a wishful stretch of yours.

As for Georgia, if McCain loses that it's over...that is a very Red state but Clinton was able to paint it Blue in 1992.

You never get tired of misquoting do you? You never get tired of missing the point completely do you?

Show me where the hell I said Obama would not be competitive. I said you are dreaming (probably smoking crack) if you think Obama will WIN Florida.

Put the crack pipe down.

[RunInRed 16,454]

You are trying to walk a fine line: from it being "dreaming" for Obama to WIN Florida to admitting he will be competitive there. And all of this in response to my original assertion that he "maybe" could win Florida. :::Sigh:::

[autigeremt 6,660]

I think McCain will win the south. Obama will not be able to overcome his liberalism in the deep south, but he will be competitive in N.C., F.L., and G.A. G.A. is his best hope of an upset. This election is won in October, not June.

[RunInRed 16,454]

Latest poll from Florida (6/26 - 6/29):

Obama 46

McCain 44

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP..._Florida701.pdf

[Tigermike 3,046]

You are trying to walk a fine line: from it being "dreaming" for Obama to WIN Florida to admitting he will be competitive there. And all of this in response to my original assertion that he "maybe" could win Florida. :::Sigh:::

You are dreaming.